Showing posts with label Legacy_Fund_Projections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Legacy_Fund_Projections. Show all posts

Thursday, February 22, 2018

Huge Jump In Legacy Fund Deposits -- February 22, 2018

February deposits for the Legacy Fund has been posted (see below). How did I do projecting the February deposit. On February 16, 2018, I posted:
Legacy Fund: deposits are reported here. The data is posted monthly; the most recent deposit was reported for January, 2018. Just for the fun of it, I'm trying out an algorithm to predict the next deposit. Having just run the algorithm, here are my estimates for the February, 2018, Legacy Fund deposit:

  • high end: $49,392,838
  • low end: $41,245,734
  • average (most likely): $47,121,013.55
Price of Bakken
Legacy Fund Deposit Projected
Legacy Fund Deposit Projected
Legacy Fund Deposit Projected
Price WTI
Projection February 2018
$54.75
Average
High end
Low
$65.50
as of February 16
$47,121,013.55
$49,392,838
$41,245,734

Another, much simpler formula, suggests the February deposit will be closer to $51,407,066

Last month I was off by 5% (on the low side). In January, 2018, the deposit was $46,242,885.80. 
It looks like my simpler formula was the better predictor. Legacy Fund deposits for February, 2018: $50,310,643.40.

And look at the curve, wow:



Friday, February 16, 2018

Active Rigs Down To 55, But WTI Up; Largest US Lease Sale In History Announced; Winning Numbers For Supermarket Monopoly Have Been Posted -- February 16, 2018

FWIW: from a government press release --
In support of President Donald J. Trump's ‘America-First Offshore Energy Strategy,’ Deputy Secretary of the Interior David Bernhardt announced that the Department will offer 77.3 million acres offshore Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida for oil and gas exploration and development.
The region-wide lease sale, which is the largest in U.S. history, is scheduled for March 21, 2018, and will include all available unleased areas in federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
In 2017, offshore leases helped the Department raise a billion dollars more in revenue for the year than was made off energy revenues in 2016.
GDP: link here -- 
Latest forecast: 3.2 percent — February 16, 2018.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 3.2 percent on February 16, unchanged from February 14. T
he nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth fell from -0.6 percent to -1.7 percent on February 15 after the industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The nowcast increased to 0.6 percent after this morning's new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Can't keep up? Halliburton says sand delivery delays would impact their 1Q18 earnings. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$61.372/16/201802/16/201702/16/201602/16/201502/16/2014
Active Rigs553941136185

RBN Energy: the rejuvenation of natural gas processing economics, part 4.

Legacy Fund: deposits are reported here. The data is posted monthly; the most recent deposit was reported for January, 2018. Just for the fun of it, I'm trying out an algorithm to predict the next deposit. Having just run the algorithm, here are my estimates for the February, 2018, Legacy Fund deposit:
  • high end: $49,392,838
  • low end: $41,245,734
  • average (most likely): $47,121,013.55

Price of Bakken
Legacy Fund Deposit Projected
Legacy Fund Deposit Projected
Legacy Fund Deposit Projected
Price WTI
Projection February 2018
$54.75
Average
High end
Low
$65.50
as of February 16

$47,121,013.55
$49,392,838
$41,245,734


Another, much simpler formula, suggests the February deposit will be closer to $51,407,066

Last month I was off by 5% (on the low side). In January, 2018, the deposit was $46,242,885.80.

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Supermarket Monopoly

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and factual errors. The information comes from various, unofficial, amateurish sources. This is for my own benefit only. Do not quote me on any of this. If this is important to you, go to the source. 

For most prizes, one needs to have four or five winning numbers. For the two biggest prizes ($1 million cash; $1 million vacation home), one needs eight winning numbers.

The game began about February 1, 2018.

We now know the "winning number" needed for almost all the prizes. For a few prizes, it's still down to two winning numbers:

$1 million cash, eight numbers needed: 108AH

$1 million vacation home, eight numbers needed: 110BB or 116BH

Most of the prizes below need four winning numbers; some need five. The "winning numbers" in red bold:

$25 grocery gift card: 119CC
$50 grocery gift card: 121DA
$100 cash: 126EB
$100 grocery gift card: 132FD
$200 cash: 135GC
$200 family picnic: 138HB
$300 spa day: 144JD
$500 grocery gift card: 145KA
$1,000 computer: 149LA
$1,000 getaway: 154MB
$1,000 gift card: 159NC
$1,000 cash: 164OD
$1,500 gas grill: 166PB
$2,600 movies: 172QD
$5,000 groceries: 173RA
$5,000 cash: 179SC
$100,000 car: 181TA or 182TB
$40,000 car: 190VE
$25,000 kitchen makeover: 193WC or 194WD
$20,000 college tuition: 199XD or 200XE
$10,000 cash: 203YB or 206YE
$7,500 vacation: 207ZA or 209ZC
$25 gift card: 213AB
$25 cash: 218BC
$20 cash: 220CA
$15 gift card: 227DD
$10 gift card: 228 EA
$10 cash: 235FD
$5 gift card: 237GB (new card: 236GA, 238GC, 239GD)
$5 cash: 242HC (new card: 240HA; 241HB; 243HD)


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The Apple Page

On January 20, 2018, about a month ago, I came up with my "price target" for AAPL: $193.

Today I see that the consensus price target for AAPL is $191.
The bet on Apple could prove quite lucrative for Berkshire as Wall Street analysts polled by Bloomberg have an average price target of $191 a share, nearly 12% above its current level. 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any job, travel, relationship, financial, or investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Predicting The Monthly Legacy Fund Deposit -- Something New, Something Crazy -- January 4, 2018

Updates

February 16, 2018: the official North Dakota state Legacy Fund deposit for January: $46,242,885.80. My average was off by $2,374,163 or 5% below the actual amount.


January 11, 2018: as of this date, this would be my projection -- Legacy Fund deposit for January, 2018, estimate --
  • high end estimate: $50.0 million
  • mid-range estimate: $43.9 million
  • low end estimate: 38.3 million


Price of Bakken
Legacy Fund Deposit Projected
Legacy Fund Deposit Projected
Legacy Fund Deposit Projected
Price WTI
Projection January 2018
$50.81
Average
High end
Low
$62.00
as of Jan 11

$43,868,722.22
$50,088,644
$38,280,059



January 4, 2018: from a reader via e-mail --
I noticed your discussion about the Bakken/WTI price differential as a factor in predicting Legacy Fund deposits (see original post below).
The director uses the North Dakota Sweet price from Flint for his number. See this post to see how to access this data.
The prices received on our production has consistently tracked well above the NDS price for a long time now. In fact, for the last 3 months the price received has been about $1 or so above WTI itself. Since the DAPL came on, the differential with WTI seems to have disappeared. I think it must be due to Bakken oil being shipped to more markets now so the Flint average doesn’t seem to work anymore. 
Original Post

Some data points:
  • Historical price of WTI (EIA): link here
  • Price of Bakken oil: based on Director's Cut which comes out monthly; tagged;
  • Legacy Fund deposits: link here
The Chart:


Price of Bakken
Deposit, Reported
Ratio
Forecast
Price WTI
Delta

Director’s Cut
North Dakota State Legacy Fund
Deposit divided by price of Bakken oil
Based on average ratio and estimated price of Bakken oil
Last week of the month
WTI - Price of Bakken oil





EIA data 

February 2018






January 2018






December 2017
49.25
44,431,000
902,152.28

$60.46
$11.21
November 2017
49.75
37,479,000
753,346.73

$58.35
$8.60
October 2017
43.56
37,220,000
854,453.63

$55.63
$12.07
September 2017
39.56
33,461,000
845,829.12

$51.67
$12.11
August 2017
37.93
31,803,000
838,465.59

$47.32
$9.39
July 2017
35.83
35,319,000
985,738.21

$49.57
$13.74
AVERAGE


863,330.93


$11.19
*********
********
*********
**********
*********
**********
***********








$49.81

863,330.93
$43,005,391.29

$61.00

$50.81

863,330.93
$43,868,722.22

$62.00

$51.81

863,330.93
$44,732,053.15

$63.00

$52.81

863,330.93
$45,595,384.08

$64.00

$53.81

863,330.93
$46,458,715.01

$65.00










High end
Low end





$45,841,364.74
$38,280,058.69




I don't know if this chart will make sense to anyone. That's fine. I'm doing this for my own benefit to see if it's possible to "predict" the monthly deposits going into the North Dakota state Legacy Fund  with any degree of accuracy  (and I use the word "accuracy" quite loosely -- LOL).

This is simply some "back-of-the-envelope" doodling. It's for my benefit only. Most folks will think it's completely bogus. That's fine.

There are way too many variables to be able to predict the the monthly Legacy Fund deposits, not least of which:
  • which day of the month the deposits will be made
  • the price of WTI
  • the price of Bakken oil
  • how closely the monthly deposits track with the estimated price of Bakken oil
  • the crude oil and natural gas production data
This is the first time I've posted this graph. I will update it each time the monthly deposits into the Legacy Fund are released.

I think the the top half of the spreadsheet (above the asterisks) is self-evident and I won't add anything here.

The bottom half of the spreadsheet (below the cells with the asterisks)is a bit more confusing.
  • start with the far right column; that's the hypothetical price of WTI ($61 - $65/bbl)
  • from there, the estimated price of Bakken oil is derived (second column below the asterisks) based on the average delta between WTI and Bakken oil (top half of the graph)
  • the fifth column, labeled "Forecast" is the estimate of the deposits for future months based on the average ratio (from the top half of the spreadsheet) and the estimated price of Bakken oil
  • so, for example, based on a WTI price of $65, the estimated price of Bakken oil would be $53.81 (the delta, $11.19 is the average from the top half of the spreadsheet); in this case, the likely deposit for January, 2018, based on $62 WTI would be $43,868.722.22
Finally, two last boxes, the "high end" and "low end":
  • for the "high end" case, I took the product of the highest ratio (902,152.28) and WTI at $62 and got $55,933,441.62
  • for the "low end" case, I took the product of the lowest ratio (753,346.73) and WTI at $62 and to $46,707,497.49
This is simply an exercise to keep me entertained. I highly recommend no one pay any attention to this unless one has nothing better to do. 

Bottom line: it appears that the "likely" Legacy Fund deposit for January, 2018, will be:
  • high end: $46 million
  • most likely: $44 million
  • low end: $38 million
It is interesting to see the delta between the EIA price of WTI and the Bakken price quoted by Lynn Helms/NDIC in the monthly Director's Cut. This spread is much wider than what is being reported elsewhere. I can think of a number of reasons but this post is already too long, so simply this: "it is what it is."