Friday, February 16, 2018

Active Rigs Down To 55, But WTI Up; Largest US Lease Sale In History Announced; Winning Numbers For Supermarket Monopoly Have Been Posted -- February 16, 2018

FWIW: from a government press release --
In support of President Donald J. Trump's ‘America-First Offshore Energy Strategy,’ Deputy Secretary of the Interior David Bernhardt announced that the Department will offer 77.3 million acres offshore Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida for oil and gas exploration and development.
The region-wide lease sale, which is the largest in U.S. history, is scheduled for March 21, 2018, and will include all available unleased areas in federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
In 2017, offshore leases helped the Department raise a billion dollars more in revenue for the year than was made off energy revenues in 2016.
GDP: link here -- 
Latest forecast: 3.2 percent — February 16, 2018.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 3.2 percent on February 16, unchanged from February 14. T
he nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth fell from -0.6 percent to -1.7 percent on February 15 after the industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The nowcast increased to 0.6 percent after this morning's new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Can't keep up? Halliburton says sand delivery delays would impact their 1Q18 earnings. 

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs553941136185

RBN Energy: the rejuvenation of natural gas processing economics, part 4.

Legacy Fund: deposits are reported here. The data is posted monthly; the most recent deposit was reported for January, 2018. Just for the fun of it, I'm trying out an algorithm to predict the next deposit. Having just run the algorithm, here are my estimates for the February, 2018, Legacy Fund deposit:
  • high end: $49,392,838
  • low end: $41,245,734
  • average (most likely): $47,121,013.55

Price of Bakken
Legacy Fund Deposit Projected
Legacy Fund Deposit Projected
Legacy Fund Deposit Projected
Price WTI
Projection February 2018
High end
as of February 16


Another, much simpler formula, suggests the February deposit will be closer to $51,407,066

Last month I was off by 5% (on the low side). In January, 2018, the deposit was $46,242,885.80.

Supermarket Monopoly

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and factual errors. The information comes from various, unofficial, amateurish sources. This is for my own benefit only. Do not quote me on any of this. If this is important to you, go to the source. 

For most prizes, one needs to have four or five winning numbers. For the two biggest prizes ($1 million cash; $1 million vacation home), one needs eight winning numbers.

The game began about February 1, 2018.

We now know the "winning number" needed for almost all the prizes. For a few prizes, it's still down to two winning numbers:

$1 million cash, eight numbers needed: 108AH

$1 million vacation home, eight numbers needed: 110BB or 116BH

Most of the prizes below need four winning numbers; some need five. The "winning numbers" in red bold:

$25 grocery gift card: 119CC
$50 grocery gift card: 121DA
$100 cash: 126EB
$100 grocery gift card: 132FD
$200 cash: 135GC
$200 family picnic: 138HB
$300 spa day: 144JD
$500 grocery gift card: 145KA
$1,000 computer: 149LA
$1,000 getaway: 154MB
$1,000 gift card: 159NC
$1,000 cash: 164OD
$1,500 gas grill: 166PB
$2,600 movies: 172QD
$5,000 groceries: 173RA
$5,000 cash: 179SC
$100,000 car: 181TA or 182TB
$40,000 car: 190VE
$25,000 kitchen makeover: 193WC or 194WD
$20,000 college tuition: 199XD or 200XE
$10,000 cash: 203YB or 206YE
$7,500 vacation: 207ZA or 209ZC
$25 gift card: 213AB
$25 cash: 218BC
$20 cash: 220CA
$15 gift card: 227DD
$10 gift card: 228 EA
$10 cash: 235FD
$5 gift card: 237GB (new card: 236GA, 238GC, 239GD)
$5 cash: 242HC (new card: 240HA; 241HB; 243HD)

The Apple Page

On January 20, 2018, about a month ago, I came up with my "price target" for AAPL: $193.

Today I see that the consensus price target for AAPL is $191.
The bet on Apple could prove quite lucrative for Berkshire as Wall Street analysts polled by Bloomberg have an average price target of $191 a share, nearly 12% above its current level. 
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any job, travel, relationship, financial, or investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

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