Monday, January 28, 2019

ISO New England Spikes To Nearly $200/MWh -- January 28, 2019

Polar vortex yet to come. Winter Storm Jayden across the Midwest.

ISO New England:
  • spiked to nearly $200/MWh
  • hydroelectricity saved the day

No Good Deed Goes Unpunished

The country that has probably sacrificed the most to combat AGW? Australia.

As part of that sacrifice, their electricity rates will spike to $14,500/MWh today.

Currently at $110/MWh and that's about as good as it's going to get today for Australia before it spikes to $14,500/MWh this afternoon.

Unfortunately This Won't Stop The Elites From Mandates -- January 28, 2019

Bjorn Lombort is linked at the sidebar at the right.

By the way, another done in the US said that Americans would not accept paying $10 monthly to combat "AGW." The most Americans would pay .... $1 / month.

Only Two New Permits Today -- January 28, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs66573846148

Two new permits:
  • Operator: Lime Rock Resources
  • Field: Stanley (Mountrail)
  • Comments: Lime Rock has two permits for a GarfieldState pad in 30-155-91;
Three permits canceled:
  • Whiting: a Strand permit in Mountrail County
  • CLR: a Hartman permit in Dunn County
  • Kraken Operating: a Knox permit in Williams County
Ten permits renewed:
  • EOG (9): three Austin permits and three Sidonia permits, all six in Mountrail County; three Hawkeye permits in McKenzie County
  • Resource Energy: one Marauder permit in Divide County
Four producing wells completed:
  • 35142, n/d, Whiting, Stenehjem 44-7H, Pembroke, t--; cum --;
  • 35141, n/d, Whiting, Stenehjem 44-7-2H, Pembroke, t--; cum --;
  • 32923, 181, BR, Chuckwagon 31-15MBH, Sand Creek, t12/18; cum --; (#20528)
  • 32926, 560, BR, Chuckwagon 31-15TFH, Sand Creek, t12/18; cu --; (#20528)

Tailgates -- January 28, 2019

Back to the Bakken

Look at the cumulative production of the CLR Holstein Federal wells -- many of these wells are very, very recent.

The Clash of The Titans

GOP: billionaire Trump.
Independent: billionaire Schultz.
Democrat: billionaire Bloomberg.

If neither Schultz nor Bloomberg run for presidency, it tells me they are all hat and no cattle. As a previous president used to say.

The Book Page

Book the First: Soldier, Priest, and God: A Life of Alexander the Great, F. S. Naiden, c. 2019. 

I can't decide whether to have this book in my library. I am severely constrained for shelf space. I only had a few minutes to look at the book while at B&N today. I spent most of my time on two other books, noted below. I'm in my Alexander the Great phase, which includes the "follow-on" early Roman Empire that replaced it. The Hellenistic / Alexandrian Empire had much in common with the Roman Empire. This book focuses on the "religious" side of Alexander but to make it a book of any size, many other topics are addressed. In some places the author tends to ramble, as if conversing, dictating the book. His editor failed in tightening up some of those sections. Several pages describing Alexander's death, for example, with no new information, tends to ramble on and on.
Book the Second: The Landmark Julius Caesar, a new translation by Kurt A. Raaflaub, series editor, Robert B. Strassler, c. 2017.

I have limited shelf space but I'm beginning to think I may need to radically re-organize what precious little book space I have. I would certainly include the five volumes that currently make up the "Landmark Series." Chapter 12 in this volume is the "Alexandrian War."
Page 514:
Having gained control of Egypt and Alexandria, Caesar established himself as rulers those persons whom Ptolemy had named in his will, solemnly calling on the Roman people not to allow any change. The king, the older of the two boys, had passed on; so Caesar handed the throne to the younger one and to the older of the two daughters, Cleopatra, who had stayed loyal to him and under his protection.
The notes to those to lines: Ptolemy XIV Philopator, at the time hardly older than ten. This is the only mention of Cleopatra in this work, which is silent about Caesar's personal relationship with her. Other sources completely ignore Ptolemy, whom Cleopatra later removed by poison. In fact, Cleopatra was now the sole ruler of Egypt.
Page 648:
Cleopatra became Caesar's mistress and gave birth to a son, Caesarion (allegedly by Caesar), whom Octavian put to death in 30. After Caesar had established her on the throne in 47, with another younger brother nominally as her co-ruler, she paid an extended visit to Rome as Caesar's guest from late 46 until shortly after assassination on the Ides of March 44. Her meeting in 41 with Marcus Antonius at Tarsus, in Cilicia, blossomed into a long-lasting liaison from which two sons and a daughter were born.
Yes, that Cleopatra. The one that eventually aligned herself with Mark Antony until she saw he was going to lose the naval battle. This was some years later.
Book the Third: 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, Yuval Noah Harari, c. 2018.
Lesson #2 -- in 2050, you might not have a job. The rest of the book? Pretty much a globalist. Probably not a Trump supporter.

I do know one job that might be available in 2050: the "soup machine" repair person. I enjoy a cup of soup at lunch, almost no matter where I am. About ten days ago they did not have soup at Starbucks/Barnes and Noble because the "soup machine" was broken. Today, about ten days later, same story. And, no, I don't substitute. So I will read awhile, wait until I get home to have soup.

But, I'm thinking, if Mr Schultz can't keep the soup machines working in his Starbucks "restaurants," how can I think he could keep the country running? LOL. Yes, I know, the Starbucks "restaurants" in B&N aren't really part of the Schultz enterprise, except as a licensed kiosk. Whatever.

Cognitive dissonance: Mr Harari's book appears to be targeted to generation Z, the iGen, or the centennials as some call them. Using the follow dates:
  • generation X: 1964 - 1984
  • generation Y, millennials, 1984 - 2000
  • generation Z, centennials, 2000 -- present,
  • in 2050, the youngest millennials will be 50 years old and the oldest, 64 years old; 
  • in 2050, the centennials will be 50 years old and younger
It appears logical, then, Mr Spock, that Mr Harari has written his book for the centennials.
Of course, this may all be moot, as they say, since Occasional-Cortex says that the earth has but twelve years left as we know it. Wow, that's discouraging.

The Next Big Thing 

Elsewhere I have a page where I archive what I think will be "the next big thing." In this particular case, I was late to the game, someone else has already thought of it, but it looks fairly new/recent and I doubt most Americans have caught on to this yet. But if I'm correct, this will be the next big thing in the transportation sector. Not in transportation, but in "the transportation sector."

But first, let's do a walk through. How did this happen? 

A year ago, a bunch of GM folks spent an afternoon "brainstorming." The group consisted of the "lead consultant" who already knew where she was going to take the group.

The rest of the group were marketing folks, designers, and engineers, all with experience in American pick-up trucks.

The purpose of the exercise was to brainstorm what the "next big thing" in American pickups will be.

So, the leader of the group, after the usual introductions, purpose of the meeting, rules of brainstorming, etc., with the first question: "What defines the American pickup truck today? What do those who buy pickups want?"

The first response: towing capacity.

The leader says, "Let's go for a drive."

The folks pile into a small minibus and take a tour of downtown Detroit. After a 35-minute drive, they return to the conference room having seen two dozen or so pickup trucks on the road.

Leader: "So, how many pickup trucks did you see that were actually towing anything."

I assume readers already know the answer. On my way home from B&N here in north Texas, the home of pickup trucks, I saw too many pickups to count. How many were towing anything? None.

Leader: "So, if it's not towing capacity, what is it?"

The group said cargo space. The leader repeats the experiment: a 35-minute minibus tour of Detroit.

Leader: "How many pickups were carrying anything substantial?"

Same response as to how many pickups were actually towing anything.

Leader: "Come on guys (and gals)! What defines the American pickup truck today? What do those who buy pickups want?"

Finally, someone in the back says, "tailgate parties."

"Give that person a round of applause. Yes, the American pickup truck is all about tailgate parties. Tailgate parties at the beach. Tailgate parties at the football game. Tailgate parties any/every summer evening. Yes, the American pickup truck is all about tailgate parties."

With that the brainstorming group got down to business. I see GMC is already ahead of the pack with a very interesting version of the pickup truck tailgate.

My hunch: Nissan will have copied it by the end of the year, and Ford will raise the bar. We're going to see a lot of "tailgate" modifications / versions over the next several years. 

Some decades ago the big selling point / competitive feature of the minivan (now pretty much out of vogue) was the number of cup holders. I kid you not. If you do the research you will see that the minivans were starting to separate themselves from the herd by the number of cup  holders than had, and the hide-under-the-seat cargo bins. If something as simple as the number and placement of cup holders can make the difference I have a long list of things one can do to / do with a tailgate.

One idea: some vans now have hydraulic lifts. We already have remote-controlled hydraulic activated rear and side hatch doors on minivans. Hydraulic lifts for pickup trucks is a no-brainer.

Later, More On Tailgates

From twitter today, February 3, 2019:

Who cares? "The strongest, the most advanced." The strongest? See above. No one cares. Except for bragging rights, I suppose. The most advanced? Should they have said "not the most advanced, but a nice color"?

The screenshot above: that's not what I see when I'm driving. That's a showroom photo. Big deal. Owners don't even see that view once the pickup truck is in the garage.

This is the view (below) I see when driving and the view folks see when actually using their pickup truck. (Yes, 99% of the time when I'm driving, the tailgates I see are in the "up" position -- but this was the first graphic I found.)

I guess marketers think the front end is more impressive, sexier. Probably so and that's why the ads/commercials will still emphasize the front end, towing capability, cargo capacity.

GM/Ford need to market "lifestyle." Tailgate parties at football games -- especially today -- Super Bowl LIII (for millennials, "53"). Tailgate parties at the beach. Hauling surfboards. Hauling ATVs. Carrying hunting dogs. Hauling garden supplies. Home supplies from Home Depot/Lowes.

Congratulations, Ms CHSU 22D -- #16123 -- One Million Bbls Cumulative -- January 29, 2019

This well, drilled twelve years ago, and not a Bakken well, has just gone over the one-million-mark:
  • 16123, 349, Denbury Onshore/BR, CHSU 22D-5NH 16, t6/06; Cedar Hills, targeted the South Red River B formation, cum 1.012145 million 11/18;
Recent production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SOUTH RED RIVER B11-2018301971196322962000
SOUTH RED RIVER B10-2018311908189923421598160438
SOUTH RED RIVER B9-20183018321836225918090809
SOUTH RED RIVER B8-20183117381749217147690769
SOUTH RED RIVER B7-20183116561655198756660666
SOUTH RED RIVER B6-20183016611659187066520652
SOUTH RED RIVER B5-20183119151912221167410741

Let's see:
  • 1,012,145 - 1,000,000 = 12,145 bbls.
It looks like this well went over one million bbls of crude oil in May, 2018.

I already know that one reader is going to point out that is not an oil well. It is a water well that happens to produce a bit of oil. The reader will note that the well is producing 20,000 bbls of water for every 2,000 bbls of oil, and it gets expensive disposing of all that water. 

Belated Happy Birthday, Mr Greni -- #5227

This well has produced for 46 years. It celebrated it's birthday a couple of months ago:
  • 5227, 624, Luff Exploration, Greni 33-26, a Red River well, t11/72; cum 1,309,857 bbs 11/18; this well has a pretty colorful history. I believe it began as a vertical well, was re-entered and two very short laterals were placed; a work-over rig in 2003 significantly increased production. Note that it was drilled in late 1972, and continues to about 1,600 bbls of oil per month, which is what some Bakken wells produce after they end of the severe decline rate and then begin to level off. Is that about 44 years of production? Note: over 1.3 million bbls of oil to date.
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
RED RIVER11-201830148016846386623127451
RED RIVER10-201831153813896537648164437
RED RIVER9-201830149117306324628131452
RED RIVER8-201831150513486573634325262
RED RIVER7-201831151313806769637281309
RED RIVER6-201830143817376515605126434
RED RIVER5-201831147013576748619149423
RED RIVER4-201830143213986503553100408
RED RIVER3-2018311499139365715791531

Random Update Of Huge WPX Behr Well In Reunion Bay -- January 28, 2019

This page will not be updated. Another huge Bakken well. This well is in Reunion Bay. Folks following the blog and particularly the Reunion Bay oil field know that this oil field is now receiving a lot of attention. I could give a lot of examples, but this is the best, most recent example, from the agenda of the hearing dockets for February, 2019, next month. These are cases, not permits:
  • 27304, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, amend, 10 wells on a 1600-acre unit; McKenzie, Mountrail
  • 27305, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, amend, 9 wells on a 1280-acre unit; Mountrail
  • 27306, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, amend, 2 wells on each of two 2560-acre units; Dunn, Mountrail
  • 27307, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, amend, 8 wells on each of two 1280-acre units; Dunn, Mountrail
The well, a Three Forks 1st bench well, with moderate amount of sand:
  • 31859, 2,776, WPX, Behr 19-18HUL, Reunion Bay, Three Forks, 50 stages; 8.4 million lbs, t7/18; cum 191K 11/18; huge well, 100K in less than 2 months;
Total production to date, less than five full months of production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Oh-Oh -- January 28, 2019

Polar vortex:

What's another trillion or two among (socialist) friends ... when it's other people's money?


From CNN:
A slowdown in China is hurting industrial equipment giant Caterpillar — and investors aren't happy.
Caterpillar reported fourth-quarter earnings Monday morning that missed Wall Street's forecasts. The company said sales in its Asia/Pacific unit were down 4% from a year ago, primarily "due to lower demand in China." It was Caterpillar's biggest earnings miss in 10 years, according to research firm Bespoke Investment Group.
Caterpillar issued an earnings outlook for 2019 that was also lower than Wall Street forecasts. 
Shares of Caterpillar fell 5% in premarket trading and the broader market tumbled as well. Futures were already pointing to a loss at the opening bell but they fell further after Caterpillar, which is a Dow component, reported results.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what your read here or think you may have read here.

The Polar Vortex Hits The Bakken -- Last Night -- January 28, 2019

From The Williston Herald:
The North Dakota Department of Transportation and North Dakota Highway Patrol issued a No Travel Advisory at 6 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 27, that includes Williston.
From the NDDOT:
The North Dakota Department of Transportation (NDDOT) along with the North Dakota Highway Patrol (NDHP) have extended the No Travel Advisory to northern North Dakota due to freezing rain, snow accumulations, and blowing snow causing hazardous travel conditions, slippery roads, and reduced visibility. Cities included in the No Travel Advisory are Williston, Minot, Devils Lake, Grand Forks, and surrounding areas. A No Travel Advisory means conditions are such that motorists should not travel in these areas.
Weather this morning, Tuesday, January 28, 2019:
  • 18 degrees with a wind child of minus five degrees
  • looks like it will a high of minus six degrees tomorrow during the day with a wind chill of minus 22 degrees
  • Tuesday night it will hit a low of minus17degrees, with apparently no wind because the wind chill will also be minus 17 degrees
  • by Friday, it will be above freezing, hitting a high of 37 degrees, or short-sleeve weather for the roughnecks

In the winter of 1965 - 1966 I would have been fourteen years old, a freshman in high school, or a ninth grader at Junior High School. I honestly forget if I was the high school or the junior high school in ninth grade but I think it would have been junior high school. I remember very, very clearly my eighth grade year at Junior High School, with Mr Thue. And I remember sitting in study hall right after the bell rang after lunch on November 22, 1963. I was sitting in study hall in the far, far right row, in the third seat back, or thereabouts. The editor of the junior high newspaper would have been a few seats to my left and behind me.

I do not recall January 29, 1966, being any colder than any other winter in North Dakota. If I was at the middle school (Junior High School), I would have been given a ride to school. If I was at the high school, I would have walked the six blocks.

I do remember walking  home from high school many nights after wrestling during the winters of 1966-1967 and 1967 - 1968. It would be well after dark, perhaps around 7:30 p.m. or so, and it could be twenty or thirty degrees below zero, absolutely calm, and an incredibly clear sky. The little bit of snow on the ground on the path I would walk was very, very crisp. I can still hear the crunchiness. I would get lost in my thoughts walking home, sometimes walking even more slowly to enjoy the freedom of being alone. I occasionally saw the aurora borealis.

I remember a particularly incredible aurora borealis show one of those nights. I was walking up 11th Street West and 6th Avenue West where I would have turned right to head home. I have no idea where I had been -- that was a roundabout way from the high school to get home. Whatever. All I remember is how beautiful the evening was, probably ten degrees below zero, no wind, and so incredibly calm. And no traffic. Had there been traffic, it is likely someone would have stopped and asked if I needed a ride. And the crunchiness of the snow.

There was no hurry to get home. I did not eat dinner/supper during wrestling seasons. I generally had a can of Tab and by the end of the week I was "sucking" on lemons to curb my thirst. I had to get down to my wrestling weight of 95 pounds for the weigh-in for the Friday night wrestling match or the Saturday wrestling tournament. My natural weight was 115 pounds and that was a very, very skinny 115 pounds. By February, we were allowed an extra three pounds, or 98 pounds for the 95-pound weight class.

After the wrestling match or the tournament, I would get home late at night, after everyone in the family was already in bed. My mother would always have a steak dinner warming on the stove for me when I arrived home on that Friday or Saturday night. It was the only night of the week I had a real dinner. We did not have much money in those days, but somehow my mom found the money to get me a steak.

All of that for this:

For The Archives -- "That" WSJ Article -- January 28, 2019

Re-posting for the archives, the argument that that Permian is not / will not produce as much as some folks have said it will:
The headline caught folks' attention, but look at the data:
Two-thirds of projections made by the fracking companies between 2014 and 2017 in America’s four hottest drilling regions appear to have been overly optimistic, according to the analysis of some 16,000 wells operated by 29 of the biggest producers in oil basins in Texas and North Dakota.
Collectively, the companies that made projections are on track to pump nearly 10% less oil and gas than they forecast for those areas, according to the analysis of data from Rystad Energy AS, an energy consulting firm. That is the equivalent of almost one billion barrels of oil and gas over 30 years, worth more than $30 billion at current prices. Some companies are off track by more than 50% in certain regions. 
The headline is based on this finding:
Collectively, the companies that made projections are on track to pump nearly 10% less oil and gas than they forecast for those areas.
I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, but even so, missing targets by 10% in unconventional oil is hardly news.

Over thirty years, the article says, that would be worth more than $30 billion at current prices. Wow, over sixty years, the figure would be $60 billion. Over ninety years, $90 billion. Anybody want to do the calculations for $180 billion? LOL.

Meanwhile, the EURs in the Bakken have increased from 350,000 bbls in the Bakken at the beginning of the boom to 1.1 million bbls in Tier 1 sites. Based on the increase in EURs across the Williston Basin, the number of Tier 1 sites is increasing. One of many examples: MRO and the company's Ajax area of the Williston Basin.

Again, this is simply for the archives, since I'm sure the issue will come up again.

Meanwhile, from just earlier this month:
One year ago -- repeating, one year ago, the EIA saw American crude oil production averaging just less than 12 million bopd in 2042 -- 24 years from now (from 2018) -- this year, the EIA says "Never mind."

The US will likely produce 14 million bopd in 2020 -- next year. 
A year ago, January, 2018, the EIA forecast that the US would average 11.95 million bbls by 2042. By 2042. That's 20+ years from now. Now, one year later, January, 2019, the EIA forecasts the US will hit 14 billion bopd in 2022, and will top out at 14.53 million bopd in 2031. 

January 28, 2019, T+26 -- January 28, 2019

State of the Union address, 2019: original invite for tomorrow, Tuesday, January 29, 2019. President Pelosi has said she has not yet decided whether it will go on as scheduled. 

NPR: North Dakota grows into its ongoing oil boom. I'm sure I posted this earlier. But I happened to see it again last night. It was originally posted by NPR on November 23, 2018.
Reaching this point has had its challenges. Five years ago many in these rural oil fields were talking about rising crime, including prostitution and illegal drugs. Another complaint was traffic jams from all the pick-up and tanker trucks traveling back and forth to the thousands of new wells that were drilled.
But visit Watford City now and the subject of crime doesn't really come up. The town feels less frantic. After years of growing pains, the region has spent a lot of money upgrading infrastructure to accommodate the influx of people drawn by the oil boom. A bypass around town has eased traffic on the main street.
Cabot Oil & Gas, Michael Fitzsimmons. Link here.
  • Cabot will see a significant uptick in both volumes and realized pricing, now that the Atlantic Sunrise pipeline is online
  • Previous guidance for $200 million in FCF generation in Q4 (an estimated $0.46/share) is likely to be met (or exceeded) for a number of reasons
  • Long-term supply contracts to Cove Point LNG, as well as exclusive supply contracts with two electric power plants, have reduced risk
  • As a result, I [Fitzsimmons] increase my price target from $30 to $31. That implies a near 20% increase from Friday's close
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Notes to the Granddaughters

Getting ready for rock climbing. Sophia now has her own climbing shoes and her own harness. Rental is $10/session; buying outright: $50.

On another note, I missed this one. I ran across it looking for something else.

Your great-grandfather made the "world news."