Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Fifty-Two Permits Renewed -- March 4, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5068594535

One new permit, #37428:
  • Operator: Enerplus
  • Field: Squaw Creek (Mountrail)
  • Comments: 
    • Enerplus has a single permit for a Cutthroat TF well in Squaw Creek, lot 4, section 3-148-94;
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 30540, SI/NC, Slawson, Jeriyote 8-5-32MLH, Big Bend, t--; cum --;
  • 36693, SI/NC, Kraken, Mathewson 31-30-4H, Oliver, t--; cum 16K over 15 days;
  • 36694, SI/NC, Kraken, Mathewson LW 31-30 1H, Lone Tree Lake, t--; cum 18K over 15 days;
Fifty-two (52) permits renewed: pending
  • BR (42): seven George permits; three Stortroen permits; four Maverick permits; three CCU Badger permits; four Cleetwood permits; five Gorhman permits, four Saddle Butte permits; three Curtis permits; five Phantom Ship permits; one Mazamaphantom permit; one Rollacleetwood permit; one Resonance Lodoen permit; one George-Lillibridge permit; these 42 permits are in McKenzie anc Dunn counties;
  • Crescent Point Energy (9): seven CPEUSC Reed permits and two CPEUSC Dois permits, all in Williams County; 
  • EOG: a Hardscrabble permit in Williams County

The Dreaded Bakken Decline Again; Note The Target Formation -- March 4, 2020

This page won't be updated; this well is tracked with the Brandvik/Weydahl wells. The Brandvik / Weydahl wells have been updated -- they are huge wells and are tracked here.

The well:
  • 32818, 1,176, CLR, State Weydahl 10-36H2, Corral Creek, 56 stages; 10.6 million lbs, t12/18; cum 282K 1/20; off line as of 1/19; still off line as of 4/19; back on line 6/19; huge jump in production; 56 stages; 10.6 million lbs; Three Forks second bench;
Full production to date:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

From the file report:
  • Corral Creek/Rocket
  • spud: March 6, 2017 
  • TD: April 20, 2017
  • TD: 21,631'
  • KOP: 10,757' MD
  • H&P 535 began drilling operations March 6, 2017
  • curve build began on the evening of March 9, 2017
  • curve landed on the evening of March 10, 2017
  • drilled out of the show on the morning of April 17, 2017
  • gas buster on briefly; rare flare; 5 - 8';
  • second bench entered at11,269'
  • ideal target: 19' thick; 8' below the internal 1 shale base, extended to 27' below the same reference points;
  • permit: Three Forks B2, 2560-acre unit

Operations Update -- Random Data Points -- March 4,2020

End of the line for these wells? These wells went off line 1/20, but are still listed as "active":
  • 16484, 1,670, EOG, Wenco 1-30H, Parshall, t9/07; cum 496K 12/19; -- needs to be re-fracked; went off line 1/20
  • 16497, 1,675, EOG, Hoff 1-10H, Parshall t6/07; cum 488K 1/20; -- needs to be re-fracked; went off line 1/20;  
Also went off line:
  • 16902, 2,192, WLL, Lacey 12-1H, Sanish, t7/08; cum 509K 12/19; came off line 1/20; 
After jump in production, holding steady:
Returning to production?
  • 18200, 1,658, Kraken/Kaiser-Francis/Fidelity, Kinnoin 24-13H, Sanish field, t9/10; cum 696K 11/19; off line as of 8/18; back on line as of 10/18; off line as of 12/19;back on line 1/20 -- for three days; minimal production; 
These wells go over 500K bbls cumulative crude oil production:
  • 18858, 715, CLR, Morris 3-26H, Oakdale, Bakken, t5/11; cum 499K 1/20; off-line 8/19; back onl ine as of 3/19;
  • 18876, 3,023, Whiting, Rohde 14-6XH, Sanish, t8/10; cum 504K 1/20; 
Back on line after being off line for twelve months:
  • 18861, 759, CLR, Carson Peak 2-35H, Oakdale, Bakken; t5/11 cum 727K 1/20; off line as of 10/18; still offline, 10/19; back on line 11/19; nice production; 
Jump in production after being brought back on line:
  • 19255, 718, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 1-28-33H, Van Hook, t1/11; cum 545K 1/20; off line 11/19;
This well goes over 600K bbls cumulative crude oil production:
  • 22484, 2,946, EOG, Hawkeye 102-2501H, Clarks Creek, Bakken, Three Forks; 3 standup sections, 1920 acres; TD = 25,451 feet;  producing, first short month at 17,147 bbls, January, 2013; t1/13; cum 604K 1/20; extended long lateral (3 sections long);  

About That Dreaded Bakken Decline -- March 4, 2020

This page will not be updated. The Oasis Kellogg Federal wells are tracked here.

The well:
  • 35118, 1,089, middle Bakken section line well, t7/19; cum 150K 1/20; 32K month; no decline yet after seven months; 40 stages; 6 million lbs; first month production of 16,269 bbls over 18 days extrapolates to 27,115 bbls of crude oil; note also, that the operator has sold all oil ("runs") that has been produced ("BBLS Oil").
 Full production profile to date:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Do Not Leave Me

Ne Me Quitte Pas, Nina Simone

US Crude Oil In Storage Barely Increased Week-Over-Week -- Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Another great day. Except lots of rain now, and very cold tonight here in north Texas which means Olivia will have indoor soccer. 

EIA weekly petroleum report: link here:
  • US crude oil in storage increased by less than one million bbls; actual number: 800,000 bbls
  • total US crude oil in storage: 444.1 million bbls; about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year;
  • refiners operating at 86.9% of capacity: very, very low;
  • jet fuel supplied decreased by 5.5% compared with same four-week period last year
  • Jim: you had one job to do -- "As a result of technical difficulties, we are unable to display the daily prices. We are working to resolve the issue."
Week Ending
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
Week 1
November 28, 2018
Week 2
December 6, 2018
Week 3
December 12, 2018
Week 4
December 19, 2018
Week 5
December 28, 2018
Week 6
January 4, 2019
Week 7
January 9, 2019
Week 8
January 16, 2019
Week 9
January 24, 2019
Week 58
January 3, 2020
Week 59
January 8, 2020
Week 60
January 15, 2020
Week 61
January 23, 2020
Week 62
January 29, 2020
Week 63
February 5, 2020
Week 64
February 12, 2020
Week 65
February 20, 2020
Week 66
February 26, 2020
Week 67
March 4, 2020
Non-Bakken News And Comment

Senator Schumer crossed the line by threatening two US Supreme Court judges -- Chief Justice Roberts. My thoughts: Senator Schumer is getting a head's up on how the justices might vote. Or Senator Schumer knows what the ruling will be if the justices interpret the law correctly. LOL.


8:15 p.m. Central Time, 24 hours after the California primary ends -- pretty much impossible to find accurate California count of delegates for Bernie, Biden. "Everyone" reporting a different number. It appears the total US delegate spread between Biden (ahead) and Bernie (behind) is about 52 delegates. 

Cost of narcissism: a reader brought this to my attention -- from the internets --
Normal new hospital development costs, barring equipment, is about $400 per square foot. Some enormous hospitals cost around $1.5 million for every bed to build. In the event that you are wanting to assemble a hospital of over 1.3 million square feet and 500 beds, it will cost you approximately $800 million. Feb 8, 2019.
Steyer and Bloomberg spent upwards of $1 billion for campaigns that lasted less than a few months; and, resulted in a handful of delegates.
Tennessee: more voters turned out to vote for Trump than for Biden and Bernie combined.

Brokered convention: Democrats working overtime to kill that meme.

Brokered convention: that may be the least of the Democrats' worries. Bernie will either run as an independent or his supporters will stay home in November.

Minnesota: analysts completely missed that story. Those on the ground in the Twin Cities know exactly what happened. Thank you, Pocahontas! LOL. 

Bloomberg: prediction -- announces that he will drop out today. It's not that he doesn't have the money to keep going, he's become a laughingstock of politics. [Wow, that was prescient: I posted that before I saw the headline -- just saw the headline -- he's suspending his campaign. Suspending.]

The question is being asked: why is Pocahontas still in the race? In this case, follow the money. She will get out of the race once her political bank account is in the green and/or she has enough left over from the presidential run to fund her US Senate re-election in 2024. 

Tell me again who won Super Tuesday. Note the whiteboard below, "before California/Super Tuesday" vs "after California/Super Tuesday":


The market: companies keep raising dividends. Those with a 30-year horizon: we don't get buying opportunities like this often. And, yes, this morning I added more shares in a position I am building; a non-energy company.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.


Question for the day: why does the CDC and/or the media not report seasonal flu statistics on a daily basis like they do for coronavirus? 

  • Iran: out of control; another 586 new cases today (March 4, 2020)
  • China had only 131 new cases; compare with Italy, Iran, South Korea
  • Italy: out of control -- a whopping 587 more cases
    • closing all classrooms; including all colleges -- announced March 4, 2020
  • South Korea: 435 more cases;
  • Russia: under control; three cases; no deaths; 
New deaths:
  • one each in Australia, Iraq -- first deaths reported
    • the new death in Australia: a 95-year-old woman
    • new cases in Australia traced back to Iran (are you kidding me?)
  • otherwise, all new deaths in China, Italy, Iran
Fatality rate:
  • South Korea: 35 / 5,621 = 0.6%; probably represents the "most credible" number for the western world
    • South Korea probably as good as any western country for tracking / reporting cases / death
    • the overall denominator is big enough to make rate statistically reliable (unlike only 132 cases in the US, South Korea has 5,621 cases overall)
    • South Korea has an "open" society much like the rest of the western world
    • South Korea has a modern public health program
    • South Korea has a modern hospital system 
Ready For Dr Seuss

The Oasis Kellogg Federal Wells

The Kellogg Federal wells:
  • 35254, PNC, Three Forks,
  • 35253, 532, middle Bakken, t8/19; cum 118K 1/20; 32K month; no decline yet after six months; 40 stages; 8 million lbs;
  • 35252, 236, Three Forks, t9/19; cum 76K 1/20; 40 stages, 4 million lbs;
  • 35251, 655, middle Bakken section line well, t9/19; cum 146K 1/20; 42K month and no decline yet; in fact, production has increased month-over-month, after four months; 40 stages; 8 million lbs;
  • 35118, 1,089, middle Bakken section line well, t7/19; cum 150K 1/20; 32K month; no decline yet after seven months; 40 stages; 6 million lbs;
  • 35117, 502, Three Forks, t7/19; cum 104K 1/20; 26K month;
  • 35116, 574, middle Bakken, t8/19; cum 132K 1/20; 40 stages; 6 million lbs;
  • 35115, 54 (no typo), Three Forks, t8/19; cum 92K 1/20; 40 stages; 4 million lbs;
  • 35101, middle Bakken,
  • 35100, PNC, Three Forks,
  • 35099, conf, middle Bakken, a big well; coming up on 150K bbls in production;
  • 35098, 872, Three Forks, t9/19; cum 109K 1/20; a 30K month; 40 stages; 4 million lbs;
The graphics:

Whoo-Hoo! The Enerplus Turtle Pad Wells Come Off The Confidential List Today -- March 4, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5068594535

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- 
Wednesday, March 4, 2020: 5 for the month; 176 for the quarter, 176 for the year:
  • 35099, 710, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 12-30 7B, Banks, t9/19; bcum 141K 1/10;
  • 35068, 1,306, Enerplus, Terrapin 152-94-33D-28H, Antelope-Sanish, t9/19; cum 139K 12/19;
  • 35067, 326, Enerplus, Box 152-94-33D-28H-TF2, Antelope-Sanish, t9/19; cum 118K 12/19;
  • 35066, 372, Enerplus, Painted 152-94-33D-28H, Antelope-Sanish, t9/19; cum 155K 12/19;  
Enerplus Turtle pad: tracked here.

The Oasis Kellogg Federal wells: tracked here

RBN Energy: new infrastructure in Texas is driving flow and price changes in the state's gulf coast gas markets, part 2.
Given that Permian natural gas prices are once again hovering under $0.50/MMBtu, Texas’s other gas markets get little attention these days. That doesn’t mean that major shifts in the Lone Star State’s natural gas supply and demand markets aren’t occurring outside of West Texas, however. In fact, it’s quite the contrary, particularly when it comes to the Houston Ship Channel gas market. There, major changes — new gas pipelines, pipeline reversals and new LNG trains — continue to influence flows and prices. Today, we provide an update on the latest in gas infrastructure changes along the Texas coast and their potential impacts on the region’s supply and demand balance.
RBN Eergy: Augustus crude pipeline advances Lotus Midstream's broader Permian plan.
The new, large-diameter crude oil pipelines coming online between the Permian Basin and the Gulf Coast grab all the headlines.
They wouldn’t be nearly as valuable to producers, however, if it weren’t for a number of other, smaller projects being developed in West Texas to transport large volumes of crude from major gathering systems and storage hubs to these new takeaway pipelines.
A case in point is Lotus Midstream’s recently unveiled Augustus Pipeline project, which will use a combination of new and existing pipe to initially transport up to 150 Mb/d of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), West Texas Light (WTL) and West Texas Sour (WTS) from Midland to Crane. When Augustus starts flowing late this year, crude delivered to the Crane hub could flow into the Longhorn Pipeline to Houston, or maybe the EPIC Crude or Gray Oak pipelines to Corpus Christi. Today, we discuss Lotus’s planned Midland-to-Crane project, and its significance for Midland Basin producers and the pipe’s owner/developer.