Saturday, August 22, 2020

Saudi's War Of Words -- The Definition Of Insanity? -- Not So Sure -- August 22, 2020

 Earlier this week this post:

From the linked article:

Having failed to achieve the slightest semblance of success in the two oil price wars that it started – the first running from 2014 to 2016, and the second running from the beginning of March to effectively the end of April this year – it might be assumed that key lessons might have been learned by the Saudis on the perils of engaging in such wars again. 
Judging from various statements last week, though, Saudi Arabia has learned nothing and may well launch exactly the same type of oil price war in exactly the same way as it has done twice before, inevitably losing again with exactly the same catastrophic effects on it and its fellow OPEC members. 
At the very heart of Saudi Arabia’s problem is the collective self-delusion of those at the top of its government regarding the Kingdom’s key figures relating to its oil industry that underpins the entire regime. These delusions are apparently not discouraged by any of the senior foreign advisers who make enormous fees and trading profits for their banks from Saudi Arabia’s various follies, most notably oil price wars. 
It is, in the truest sense of the phrase, a perfect example of "The Emperor's New Clothes", although in this case, it does not just pertain to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) but to all of the senior figures connected to Saudi Arabia’s oil sector. 
One of the most obvious examples of this is the chief executive officer of Saudi Arabia’s flagship hydrocarbons company, Saudi Aramco (Aramco), Amin Nasser, who said last week – bewilderingly for those who know even a modicum about the global oil markets – that Aramco is to go ahead with plans to increase its maximum sustained capacity (MSC) to 13 million barrels per day (bpd) from 12.1 million bpd.

Several comments:

  • Saudi's words mean nothing; let's see what happens; 
  • along that line, has Saudi ever succeeded in maintaining maximum sustained capacity at 13 million bbls?
  • Saudi is firing a warning shot across the bow of the other OPEC members; if they don't fall in line with agreed-upon quotas, Saudi is ready to open the spigots again;
  • Saudi is in a corner, in deep doo-doo; with Brent at less than half what Saudi needs to meet its government's budget, it doesn't have many options;
  • this is the scary part: I'm not as sanguine as the writer of the linked article; I'm pretty sure "three's the charm" and a third opening of the oil spigots by Saudi and the US shale industry would pretty much be dead;

So, we'll see. 

I'm No Good

I'm No Good, Amy Winehouse

How Crazy Is The Bakken -- This Well Is Hardly Noteworthy -- "Only" 300K In Two Years -- August 22, 2020

How crazy has the Bakken become? For me, I'm losing interest in any well that reports less than 40,000 bbls/month in early / initial production. In the early days of the boom, it was not uncommon for most wells to produce less than 40,000 bbls the first year, or so it seems.

The well:

  • 30278, 2,706, WPX, Joseph Eagle 19-18D, Mandaree, a huge well; 76K in less than 2 months; t6/18; cum 303K 6/20;


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

A CLR Well Goes Over 500K In Two Years -- August 22, 2020

The well:

  • 33120, 3,510, CLR, Mountain Gap 7-10H, Rattlesnake Point, 37 stages; 15 million lbs, huge well;  84K in one month; the Mountain Gap wells are tracked here; t5/18; cum 125K in two months; cum 554K 4/20; off line 5/20; remains off line, 6/20;


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

A Staggering XTO Well -- 470K Bbls In One Year -- Still Flowing After A Year -- No Pump -- August 22, 2020

The well:
  • 34356, 1,305, XTO, Bobcat Federal 14X-35A, Bear Creek, t6/19; cum 470K 6/20; F;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Updating A Huge XTO Well In Bear Creek -- 400K Bbls Crude Oil In One Year -- August 22, 2020

The well:

  • 34358, 30 (no typo), XTO, Bobcat Federal 14X-35EXH, Bear Creek, 60 stages, 12.0 million lbs, t5/19; cum 413K 6/20:

The graphic: pending, if the spirit moves me but not tonight. 


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

A Tale Of Two States -- August 22, 2020

North Dakota just announced that August, 2020, deposits into the Legacy Fund totaled slightly more than $20 million.

Meanwhile, Minneapolis has announced that it will spend almost $5 million for a new police headquarters for three years after the previous building was destroyed during "mostly peaceful" protests. Link:  

The city will renovate an existing building for $1.2 million and then allocate $3.6 million to sublease the building for three years. The new location is about a half-mile from MPD's Third Precinct which was burned down by "mostly peaceful" rioters May 28, 2020, after officers were forced to abandon it.

Okay, that's for three years. Then what? A new building or a lease extension. Money that won't be spent on city social programs. Okay.

Or maybe the city will simply de-fund and do away with the MPD Third Precinct.

MRO Looks To Have Eighteen Wells On A 2x2 Drilling Unit -- August 22, 2020

From the September, 2020, NDIC hearing dockets:

Case No. 28556 (this is a case, not a permit): Application of Marathon Oil Co. for an order amending the applicable orders for the Reunion Bay-Bakken Pool to authorize up to eighteen wells to be drilled on a 2560-acre spacing unit described as Sections 28, 29, 32 and 33, T.152N., R.93W., McKenzie and Mountrail Counties, ND, and granting such other relief as may be appropriate.

The graphic:

Existing wells (not sure about all of these; hard to read the map):

  • 33549, 5,284, MRO, Pfundheller USA 44-33H, Reunion Bay, 45 stages; 8.6 million lbs, t7/18, cum 308K 6/20; off line 11/19 -1/20;
  • 33548, 4,283, MRO, Alexander USA 44-33TFH, Reunion Bay, 45 stages; 6.7 million lbs, t7/18, cum 399K 6/20;
  • 26807, 2,704, MRO, Earl Pennington USA 44-33H, Reunion Bay, API: 33-061-02777, t5/14, cum 481K 6/20;
  • 26805, 1,882, MRO, Renn 41-4TFH, Reunion Bay, 30 stages; 2.4 million lbs, t5/14, cum 254K 6/20;
  • 19230, 649, MRO, Goodall USA 11-29H, Reunion Bay, 32 stages; 6.5 million lbs, in two separate fracks, t1/11 cum 421K 6/20; offline 12/19 - 3/20;
  • 26085, 1,862, MRO, Scott Quale USA 21-29TFH, Reunion Bay, 30 stages; 2.1 million lbs, t12/13, cum 342K 6/20; off line 1/20 - 3/20;
  • 26086, 2,169, MRO, Chuck Quale USA 21-29H, Reunion Bay, 30 stages; 2.6 million lbs, t12/13, cum 354K 6/20;

  • 33926, 3,943, MRO, Cantrill USA 11-29TFH, Reunion Bay, 45 stages; 6.6 million lbs; t1/19, cum 305K 6/20;
  • 33927, 4,722, MRO, Zelda USA 11-29H, Reunion Bay, 45 stages; 8.3 million lbs; F; t1/19, cum 235K 6/20; offline 2/20 - 3/20;
  • 24622, 31,448, MRO, Annie USA 11-29TFH, Reunion Bay, 30 stages; 2.0 million lbs, t2/13, cum 297K 6/20;
There appear to be about ten wells in this drilling unit, which means BR is looking at an additional eight wells.

NYC Moving Companies Turning Away Business: Overwhelmed With Requests -- August 22, 2020


August 23, 2020: New York landlords beg businesses: "return to work and save the city's economy."

New York property owners are begging the city's largest businesses to return to work. 
Names like Goldman Sachs and BlackRock have been on the speed dials of New York landlords, who are reportedly reaching out to the businesses begging them to get back to work and, in turn, save the city's economy. 
The landlords have formed a "loose coalition" according to a new report by Bloomberg. The group includes RXR Realty’s Scott Rechler, Rudin Management’s William Rudin and Marc Holliday of SL Green Realty. 
These landlords, facing a catastrophic collapse in the price of commercial real estate, argue that it's safe to return to work and that most NYC businesses simply can't survive a shutdown much longer. Some are even calling it the "patriotic" thing to do. 
So far, the reception hasn't been overwhelming. And with every day that passes, it becomes a tougher sell. As businesses close up, there becomes less reason to return to work. As a result, landlords could see a major demand drought and prices could crater.

Original Post

See this note posted earlier today about wealthy folks fleeing NYC. Okay.

Now this, from a reader, thank you, via ZeroHedge:

Between an economy-wrecking pandemic and a blistering crime wave driven by race riots and a disbanded anti-crime unit, New York City residents are switching to Pace Picante and fleeing the metropolis in droves. 
That, of course, is nothing new if you're been following along. But if you need yet another data point, NYC moving companies are so busy they're having to turn down business, according to DNYUZ.
While the moving industry is fractured among numerous small business owners, and official statistics are tough to come by, one thing is clear: From professionals who are downsizing following a job loss, to students moving back in with their parents, to families fleeing the city for the suburbs, New Yorkers are changing their addresses in droves.

According to FlatRate Moving, the number of moves it has done has increased more than 46 percent between March 15 and August 15, compared with the same period last year
The number of those moving outside of New York City is up 50 percent — including a nearly 232 percent increase to Dutchess County and 116 percent increase to Ulster County in the Hudson Valley. -DNYUZ
Matt Jahn, owner of Brooklyn-based Metropolis Moving, told DNYUZ that he's been flooded with so many customers that he's had to reject new business
"We are turning people away because we just don’t have the capacity," he said, adding "Normally, in a given summer, we spend a bunch on advertising. But we cut it this year because we couldn’t afford it. And we have still had amazing demand."

Governor Cuomo declared moving companies "essential services." 

Then, Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced that moving companies were considered an essential service, and the phones began to blow up. 
"Within 30 minutes of the announcement I got a flood of calls," said Jahn of Metropolis Moving, who added that things haven't slowed down since.

Mass transit is dead. From the same article:

He has been using company vans to pick up movers instead of letting them take public transportation. 

And, again, these are those who can afford to move, and those most concerned about what they have to lose if their homes are broken into and if they are mugged or confronted. 

The Apple iPhone 12 --  -- August 22, 2020

Apple, Inc.

iPhone 12: this is simply incredible. If this is accurate, it will blow folks out of the water, as they say.

All of this is conjecture. None of this is confirmed by Apple, Inc.

Apple will host an October 6, 2020, two-hour presentation introducing the most remarkable upgrade in their iPhone line in the past several iterations.

The new iPhones will be the first to introduce 5G support:

  • said to be "much faster" than 4G LTE networks;
  • all models will feature 5G connectivity:

Apple will introduce four models of the Apple iPhone 12 to be variously named iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro. There will be four sizes:

  • 5.4 inches: iPhone 12 SE; smallest iPhone since the smallest, iPhone SE, 4.7-inch
  • 6.1 inches: iPhone 12
  • 6.1 inches: iPhone 12 Pro
  • 6.7 inches: iPhone 12 Pro Max; the largest iPhone to date


  • Apple will introduce one new color: most likely a navy blue finish;
  • if not navy blue, then look for light blue, violet, light orange;

Triple-lens cameras in two models:

  • the iPhone 12 Pro
  • the iPhone 12 Pro Max

Dual-lens cameras in two models:

  • the iPhone 12 SE
  • the iPhone 12


  • iPhone 12 SE
  • iPhone 12

OLED display: all models, doing away with LCDs

Design change: all models

  • a stainless-steel metal frame similar to the iPhone 4 or iPad Pro
  • will give the iPhones a flat, distinctive look
  • front and back glass for the body (current standard)
  • sapphire or tempered glass to protect the grooves in the frame;


  • the iPhone 12 Pro Max will have a thickness of 7.4 mm; a bit thinner than the 8.1mm thick iPhone 11 Pro Max

High-end camera:

  • True-Depth camera
  • possibly a 3D triple-lens rear camera system using a laser to calculate depth
  • similar to the LIDAR Scanner in the iPad Pro


  • the Apple-designed 5-nanometer A14 chip manufactured by TSMC;

In the box (or what won't be in the box):

  • no power adapter; no EarPods
  • could offer a new 20W power adapter to be purchased separately
  • a voucher will be included in the box, but not the power adapter
  • likewise, a voucher for wireless EarPods

BR Looks To Have Fifteen Wells In A 1280-Acre Spacing Unit -- August 22, 2020

From the September, 2020, NDIC hearing dockets:

Case No. 28554 (a case, not a permit):

Application of Burlington Resources Oil & Gas Co. LP for an order amending the applicable order for the Westberg-Bakken Pool to authorize up to fifteen horizontal wells to be drilled on a 1280-acre spacing unit described as Sections 5 and 8, T.152N., R.96W., McKenzie County.

The graphics:


Existing wells:

  • 23734, 2,485, BR, Bryce 11-5TFH, Westberg, 30 stages; 3.1 million lbs, t11/13; cum 301K 5/20; off line 5/20;
  • 23735, 2,974, BR, Bryce 11-5MBH, Westberg, 30 stages; 3.4 million lbs, t11/13; cum 339K 5/20; off line 6/20;

  • 18177, IA/1,844, BR, Bryce 31-5H, Westberg, open/cased hole, about 2.1 million lbs, t10/09; cum 255K 9/13; remains off line 6/20; well is dead; needs to be plugged and abandoned.
  • 23736, 1,643, BR, Bryce 41-5TFH, Westberg, 17 stages; 2.0 million lbs, t10/14; cum 199K 5/20; off line 6/20?

  • 25952, 2,712, BR, Capitol 44-7TFH, Westberg, 30 stages; 3.4 million lbs, t12/13; cum 291K 5/20; off line 6/20;

  • 23737, 2,712, BR, Bryce 24-8TFH, Westberg, 30 stages; 3.3 million lbs, t11/13; cum 292K 5/20; off line 6/204
  • 23738, 2,899, BR, Bryce 34-8MBH, Westberg, 30 stages; 3.4 million lbs, t11/13; cum 347K 5/20; off line 6/20;
  • 23739, 2,895, BR, Bryce 34-8TFH, Westberg, 30 stages; 3.3 million lbs, t11/13; cum 433K 5/20; off line 6/20;

  • 31583, 794, Newfield, Larsen 152-96-16-21-5HLW, Westberg, 41 stages; 7 million lbs, t1/16; cu 253K 6/20; was off line 5/20;


  • nine wells; one middle Bakken well "dead"; five Three Forks wells; four middle Bakken wells; two section line wells;
  • incredibly small fracks; 30 stages; 3.4 million lbs;
  • BR looking to have 15 wells in this drilling unit which would mean six to seven new wells; probably six, evenly divided between Three Fork and middle Bakken;

Unemployment In A Covid-19 World; Wealthy Flee NYC -- August 22, 2020

From Unbiased America:

Never before has there been such a huge disparity in unemployment rates among the states. As of last month, the state with the highest unemployment rate, Massachusetts (16.1%), had a rate three-and-a-half times higher than the lowest state, Utah (4.5%).

And Massachusetts isn’t an aberration. Eighteen states have unemployment rates in double digits.

Nine states, meanwhile, are 6.9% or lower!

If this continues, there is a real danger of population migration out of the states that are still restrictive in their labor policies, especially if the unemployment becomes chronic rather than temporary.

New York, for example, is starting to find that some residents who fled are not coming back
. [And generally, it is those who can afford it, i.e., the high-income taxpayers, who are moving.] 
Related: escape from New York City -- wealthy residents flee in droves as city degenerates into a hellhole.

Meanwhile, other states have much better employment situations, either because they never resorted to mass shutdowns and still have relatively low unemployment rates, or have already opened back up most of their economy with fewer restrictions. [Actually, unemployment rates probably correlate better to type of industries in that state: Florida is doing very badly but it's a travel and leisure destination. Minnesota, on the other hand is doing very well, but it had one of the most restrictive lock down policies and remains locked down.]

Going forward, states that continue to impose the harshest restrictions risk losing business and population to those that have returned to a competitive environment. Stay tuned…

Killing Their App? I Have No Idea What This Is All About -- August 22, 2020

Beware! A reader suggested this looks like a phishing scam. Wow, how could I fall for that? The good news: I did not click on links. This is a pretty sophisticated scam. No obvious typographical errors. The note suggests you log in using the web -- which threw me off the trail -- but the short note is filled with not less than six opportunities to click without going to the website itself.

Popped up in my e-mail this week:

This Came Up In Discussion This Past Week -- Five Foods To Boost Your Immune System -- Orange Juice, Beef, Sunflower Seeds, "Strong" Beer, And More Beef -- August 22, 2020

Pet peeve: a gazillion public service announcements (PSAs) and signage everywhere telling us how to wash our hands (are you kidding?) and yet not one PSA reminding Americans the importance of beef. Four ounces/day is all you need. Hey, vegans: "we've" evolved. Fruits and nuts are so Australopithecus afarensis.

The Five Foods

Bottom line: orange juice, beef, sunflower seeds, beer, and more beef. I cannot make this stuff up. Is that so hard to remember? Beef, "real" beer, seeds, and orange juice. That's it. Four essential food groups.

A google search asking that question: a top hit -- The Houston Chronicle, March 3, 2020. 

While everyone is talking about the coronavirus COVID-19, we need to remember that influenza is a more immediate threat here in the United States. Here are five foods to be sure to incorporate in your diet so that you have the strongest immune system this flu season. 

1. Vitamin C: This probably comes to no surprise to you, but it is important to get enough of this immune-boosting vitamin. By ingesting up to 1 gram daily of vitamin C, also known as ascorbic acid, you may be able to shorten the length of a cold or flu. Vitamin C is also a powerful antioxidant and essential for collagen and other protein synthesis within the body. Most fruits and vegetables contain some amount of vitamin C, but your best sources are citrus fruits, asparagus, cantaloupe, strawberries and kale. [Yes, I will have another serving of kale. LOL. How about just having orange juice, and lots of it, in the refrigerator. Sometimes these "experts" make life too difficult.]

2. Zinc: ... The best food sources of zinc are red meats (particularly organ meats) and seafood. Whole grains and leafy root vegetables are good plant sources of zinc. You can also take a zinc supplement; however, it is important to follow the guidelines on the bottle, as there are side effects of taking too much zinc. [Name one.]

3. Vitamin E: It’s main function in immune health is as an antioxidant that rids your body of those damaging free radicals bouncing around your system. Think of free radicals as bulls in a china shop destroying things left and right. Antioxidants are like the repairmen that capture the bull, and then help to repair whatever the free radicals destroyed. Vitamin E is found primarily in plant foods, but best sources are in oils from plant foods such as canola and safflower oil. Nuts and peanut butter are also good sources of vitamin E. [They're making it too difficult: one ounce of oil-roasted sunflower seeds provides a whopping 76% of the Recommended Dietary Allowance for vitamin E.]

4. Probiotics: ... What can really help your gut bacteria flourish is ensuring you are eating enough prebiotics, or foods that help feed probiotics, such as fruits and vegetables. Again, they are making it too difficult: beer is just as good for your gut as probiotics.]

5. Protein: I saved the best for last and cannot preach about protein enough. It is so important on so many levels for us to eat enough protein throughout the day. Most of the protein found in our body is in our skeletal muscle or about 40%; over 25% is found in our organs; and the rest in our skin and blood. In fact, we have an entire group of proteins in our blood called immunoproteins, also known as immunoglobulins or antibodies. That’s right, our antibodies, the ones that fight off disease, bacteria and viruses, are made of protein. So, if you aren’t getting enough through your diet, your body can’t make enough antibodies to help you fight whatever germs you pick up throughout the day. The main protein food sources are meats and seafood, so chicken, poultry, fish and shellfish. However, you can also get a good amount of protein from eggs, milk, yogurt and cheese. Keep yourself protected this flu season by eating for a healthy immune system.

Beer Is Just As Good For Your Gut As Probiotics

Link here. Best beers? Belgian.

Note: we're talking about "strong beer." Not the "lite" stuff that is marketed as beer in the United States.

The History Page

I'm currently reading a book on the history of the British Isles during the "age of Vikings" and was reminded of the importance of beer.

Most Under-Reported US Economic Story This Past Week -- August 22, 2020

Pet peeve: CNBC talking heads talking about a "bad" US economy. Really. Sure, GE, travel, restaurant, leisure and services sectors are all struggling but most other sectors are doing just fine. To the best of my knowledge, government employees at all levels (federal, state, county, city) never missed a beat.


This is absolutely incredible. US home sales soar -- from TheStreet:

According to the National Association of Realtors, U.S. existing home sales surged a record-breaking 24.7% in July compared with June, as the old-fashioned mantra "home sweet home" appears to be ringing true for Americans amid a pandemic that has most everyone hunkered down inside.

July's jump in home sales is the strongest monthly gain in the survey’s history, which dates back to 1968.

The sales increase comes even as the supply of existing homes has fallen which, in turn, has driven up the price of homes. According to the survey, the median price for a home in July was $304,100, up 8.5% from July 2019.

Low interest rates are also attracting buyers to the market.

A brother-in-law -- builds homes -- had planned to build another house next summer but says he may have to delay those plans: he says lumber has gotten way too expensive. 

Every new home will come with new large-screen television sets and many with Apple TV.

The Farmers Have Money, Too
Deere Thanks President Trump

Deere lifts outlook as earnings crush views amidst stimulus boost -- Investor's Business Daily.

Deere easily beat estimates for the third quarter and hiked outlook, as farm equipment sales weather the coronavirus pandemic thanks to government stimulus and replacmeent demand for aging tractors. 
Deere stock pegged a record high.Analysts expected Deere earnings per share to dive 53% to $1.26. 
Revenue was seen down 26% to $6.64 billion.Analysts expected Deere earnings per share to dive 53% to $1.26. 
Revenue was seen down 26% to $6.64 billion. 
President Trump's $19 billion farm relief program and replacement demand for aging tractors helped to buoy Deere's farm equipment sales
As economic uncertainty continues, famers also are investing in technology to lower costs and improve productivity, Deere said.

More Apple iPads in those big, a/c'd tractors. 

Meanwhile ...

Joe Biden says he will shut down the economy again, if the DNC tells him to.

Bakken Economy? Say what? Bakken Labor Force Near Record High -- August 22, 2020

By the way, this might help explain the relative increase in the number of Wuhan flu cases in North Dakota. I don't know; just a thought. The following on the net this past week:


Clearing Out The In-Box -- August 22, 2020

Low gasoline prices: link to GasBuddy --

No brainer at Lego: the crocodile! 

  • I bought the Maerklin original decades ago! Currently selling for $550 over at eBay:

  • Now, LEGO has another winner:

Quick! What's a thurible?

  • from late Latin, from Latin thus, thur- ‘incense’ (from Greek thuos ‘sacrifice’) + -fer ‘-bearing’.


PGA and the downfall of Tiger Woods

  • PGA tournament this week; end of third round
  • Tiger barely made the cut; stayed for the weekend "right on the number";
  • entered the weekend, -3 (the cut line)
  • third round: two strokes over par;
  • ended the third round, -1; dropped a staggering nine places (could change by end of day);
  • observations:
    • does not have the stamina
    • if he has a "good" first two rounds, he runs out of steam the third day
    • quickly loses the desire
    • once he "falls behind," even if it's after the first hole, he psychologically gives up
  • later: see how my observations panned out in the fourth round at this link;
  • look at Rory McIlroy

PGA and the decline of Phil Mickelson: didn't make the cut. At least he gets to spend more time with his family this weekend. 

Others missing the cut:

  • Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Bryson DeChambeau (say what? the darling of CBS?)

Anyone watching the #BLM play-offs?

  • Boston leading the 76ers, 3 - 0 in the best of seven series
  • the most fascinating: Lakers and Portland Trailblazers tied at 1-1