Friday, June 11, 2021

Five New Permits; CLR Has Four New Fuller / Fuller Federal Permits -- June 11, 2021

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2012636352

Five new permits, #38364 - #38368, inclusive:

  • Operators: CLR (4); Petro-Hunt;
  • Fields: Little Knife, Stockyard Creek (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Petro-Hunt has a permit for a Boss well in Stockyard Creek, sited in Lot 4 section 18-154-99; 716 FSL 300 FWL
    • CLR has permits for four Fuller / Fuller Federal wells sited in Little Knife oil field, in Lot 4 section 2-146-97;
      • the four wells will be sited 300 FNLand between 1067 FWL and 932 FWL
    • an active, producing Fuller well in that location:
      • 20357, 629, CLR, Fuller 1-2H, Little Knife, t9/11; cum 275K 4/21;

Nine permits renewed:

  • XTO (4): four Twin State Federal permits in McKenzie County;
  • BR (3): three Lillibridge permits in McKenzie County;
  • Resource Energy (2): one Bervik permit and one Lincoln State permit, both in Divide County;

Petro-Hunt's New Sherven Trust Permit In Charlson Oil Field -- June 11, 2021

Petro-Hunt permit:

  • Petro-Hunt has a permit for another Sherven Trust well in SWSW 23-153-95, 325' FSL and 1020' FWL, #38359.

The graphic:

Wells of interest in that graphic:

  • 17799, 457, BR, Guadalupe 11.23H, Charlson, t3/09; cum 758K 3/21;
  • 29090, 1,032, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-6H, Charlson, t7/18; cum 368K 3/21; F;
  • 29091, 1,031, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-5H, Charlson, t6/18; cum 277K 3/21; F;
  • 32165, 1,090, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-4H, Charlson, t5/18; cum 369K 3/21; F;

Well of interest, #17799, full production here. Huge halo effect.

Flowing: note that the three Petro-Hunt wells drilled back in 2018 still are flowing without a pump.

Note: the Guadalupe well is a short one-section well and has produced almost 800K bbls crude oil cumulative.

Inflation -- June 11, 2021

All this talk about inflation makes one more observant. For example, retailers are really, really competing for your business. "Loyalty" pays? I think so. Cynics will disagree. Whatever.

Walgreens is very, very aggressive. Walgreens is not a retailer I normally visit: I visit Walgreens for only two items -- photo prints and Rogaine. 

I never, never buy photos without Walgreen coupons which routinely knock off 50% of the "regular" price. Example: my recent purchase of two enlargements, around $8.00 regular price; $4.00 for half price. And Walgreens offers these photo discounts monthly.

Rogaine. Expensive. Generally $54 for three-month supply. But when it goes on sale, I stock up. Most recently, $38 for that same $54-three-month supply. A 30% savings? Today, I received in m e-mail a note from Walgreens that their entire store, regular prices dropped 30% for one day only. 

You know, Rogaine is expensive as a one-time buy but spread out over three months -- and I often get it to last longer than three months -- it's not expensive at all. $54 / 90 days = 60 cents/day, and at $38 / 90 days = 42 cents/day ... which leads me to this ... Rogaine is another item that Amazon needs to sell by subscription. And there it is. Amazon's regular price, $46. By subscription, $43.69. Doesn't beat what I can get at Walgreens, but it's a start. 

Oreos: the other day, I mentioned Oreos. A very slight change in eating habits and one can eliminate / minimize the increase in price.

Chipotle: recently said they need to increase entree prices by 4 percent. I visit Chipotle, maybe, once a year, and usually when our oldest granddaughter invites me. I think I can manage Chipotle's four--percent increase. 

Barber: I should go twice a month; pre-Covid I went once monthly or thereabouts. $18 plus $10-tip. I haven't been to barber since February, 2020, over a year ago. Savings: at least $25 x 12 months = $300, much of which goes to Sophia. LOL. 

Kuru sushi: $50-lunch when my wife and I go out. We haven't been there in over a year. No desire to go any more. We used to go once-a-week. We now get as much enjoyment with sushi from local grocery store, and just as good. And "at-home Suntori" so much less expensive than in-restaurant saki. But that reminds me, I may have to start looking for saki at our Total Wine and More store. Memo to self: remind spousal unit that we need to have sushi once weekly. We used to do that; then she went to Portland, OR, for fourteen months to help take care of the newborn twins.

Gasoline: I don't know. Seems to be less of a problem than CNBC talking heads warned of earlier. Driving less -- much less for that matter -- and the price of gasoline has actually dropped back a bit after recent "surge." 

Healthcare: These are all minor, minor examples: the big challenges -- health care costs; rent; used car maintenance. Groceries are absolutely not an issue for an elderly couple with no teenagers to feed. LOL. Medicare is a godsend. Colonscopy, out-of-pocket, maybe $3,000; Medicare: covered. Cologard, out-of-pocket, $600; Medicare: covered. Cataract surgery, "standard," Medicare: covered; Laser: $2,000 per eye. 

Biggest area for savings: vacations. I don't know how young families of four or six manage. Theme parks a thing of the past. No lodging expenses for us, in general. By exception only. Flights: travel dates completely flexible; huge savings.

And There It Is: $71 -- And, Oh, By The Way -- China Committed To Cutting Emissions? Not! -- June 11, 2021

First things first: old news, but I forgot to post -- Oklahoma beats Florida State for Women's College World Series (SOFTBALL) championship; wins two of three in a great series.  5 - 1 in the deciding game.

In winning four straight to get to the best-of-three championship series, the Sooners overcame deficits against UCLA and James Madison. Sandwiched in between was letting a 3-0 lead over the Dukes slip away before coming through late to stay alive.

In 2000, the Sooners were the Little Engine That Could, beating powerhouses UCLA and Arizona — which had combined to win 10 of the last 11 titles before the year — to win an improbable national title in their own backyard.

Now, it’s OU which has become the power, winning four more times including three of the last five.

Now, back to business.

Perhaps one of the banners for the ages. 

The Argusmedia story: China sets grid-parity prices for renewable power. 

And, oh, by the way, the news coming out of the Biden administration suggests that this administration will push the price of oil and natural gas as high as it can. Some of the outcomes will be deliberate and expected; some outcomes will be entirely unexpected.

Notes From All Over -- Mid-Day Edition -- June 11, 2021

Norway: not giving up on oil development. Link to Charles Kennedy

It's been nice knowing you, but time to go: BP looks to spin off Iraq operations into a standalone company. WSJ via Reuters

In the money: natural gas. "Free cash flow in natural gas space over next two years will be absurd."

Fight's on: Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz to enter the Wall Street bullring. Link here.

Joe Biden, Prince Abdulazia, and Harold Hamm

Gasoline Demand Trend Is Not My Friend (Today) -- June 11, 2021


71. The number to watch today. WTI at $70.94, 11:15 a.m. CT.

1.5. The other number to watch, the 10-year treasury, now 1.457%, 12:28 p.m. CT. Remember when folks were concerned about 1.6%?

Gasoline demand, link here. The trend is not my friend:

WTI Trending Toward $71; Brent To $73; MRO Reports One Well Coming Off The Confidential List --June 11, 2021

Apple: this is not a plug for Apple. I'm sure one can do this on all tablets, but what amazing technology. From the comfort of my bed I can surf the net. I can open the Schwab app and do all my banking/investing business without closing the other tabs. I can open Hulu -- either through the browser or through its app -- and watch / listen to "Squawk on the Street" in the background while reading / working on the other apps. The tablets are getting bigger and bigger in size (good -- more choices) and less and less expensive.

Schwab: I'm sure everyone "loves" their trading / investing platforms. I'm sure whatever one you are using is better than all the rest. At least that's what the ads say. But, wow, it's hard to believe there is any trading/investment app better than Schwab. The features are truly remarkable.

Wealth tax: I'm getting a kick out of news stories that the US Congress is considering a "wealth tax." Hellooo!! We already have a "wealth tax": they're called RMDs. If you don't make an RMD (and pay tax on the withdrawal), not only are you still liable for the tax, but a penalty as well. Could the IRS license Forbes methodology? I have no problem with a wealth tax; none at all. And, yes, there would be exceptions / deductions. 

Ammo Grrll; generally "Thoughts From The Ammo Line" are very, very good. Today's essay is particularly good

The market: even amid Fed rate hikes, stocks usually go up.  

Wow, they're reading the blog. Yesterday, there was a story about Saudi's crude oil production in May, around 8 million bbls per day and about 400,000 bopd over their stated objective. But as usual, the most important number not released: how much of that 8 million bopd was exported (and to where) and how much was burned domestically for air conditioning. Today, Irina Slav notes exactly that: a scorching hot middle east summer could send oil prices soaring. Again, it's not the price of oil per se, but the price of the last barrel of oil that matters.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2012636352

One well coming off the confidential list:-- Friday, June 11, 2021:
37673, drl/NC, MRO, Herman USA 24-31TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data;

RBN Energy: shifting global dynamics affect Japanese LNG players with US supply contracts. Archived.

Of the 10 Bcf/d, or more than 75 MMtpa, of nameplate LNG export capacity currently operational in the Lower 48, Japanese companies form the largest single group lifting U.S. cargoes. Their commitments total ~2 Bcf/d of U.S. liquefaction capacity. However, Japan’s LNG consumption has been falling over the past two years, and in 2019 and 2020, U.S. LNG accounted for only 0.6 Bcf/d and 0.8 Bcf/d of Japanese imports, respectively, or about 20% of the country’s total LNG demand in each year. In other words, Japanese companies have made commitments for incremental LNG from their remotest supply option against a backdrop of falling domestic demand. I 
n all cases, the Japanese players have opted not to buy FOB from producer projects, but instead have booked capacity at the Cove Point, Cameron, and Freeport LNG export facilities — all plants that require offtakers to secure and transport the feedgas supply for LNG production. This type of arrangement carries with it the need to set up gas trading desks in the U.S., with front-, middle- and back-office personnel, plus operations staff, representing additional fixed costs. What was the motivation for these commitments, made by no less than seven of Japan’s major LNG buyers, how successful have they been, and what lies in store for these volumes that the country does not appear to need? Today, we look at where these volumetric commitments fit, not only in the portfolios of the capacity holders but within the broader context of LNG commerce and commoditization.