Friday, July 15, 2016

One-Two Punch Knocks Out North Dakota Coal Plant -- July 15, 2016

Data points:
  • Great River Energy's Stanton Station power plant
  • 189-MW; on-line since 1966
  • to close by May, 2017
  • one-two punch: a) not economical in low-price environment; b) war on coal/carbon emissions
  • will help North Dakota meet the 45 percent CO2 emissions reduction set forth by the Clean Power Plan, currently stalled by lawsuits
  • GRE continues to operate the Coal Creek Station power plant near Underwood and the Spiritwood Station plant near Jamestown

Week 28: July 10, 2016 -- July 16, 2016

Military coup in Turkey is being reported; has yet to play out. The attempted coup appears to have begun on Friday, July 15, 2016. There are reports that the Turkish premier is asking for asylum in Germany. [Later: it appears the coup has failed. If the military failed, this is most likely Turkey's last chance not to become an Islamic state.]

Director's Cut released today revealed that North Dakota crude oil production in May (2016)  increased ever so slightly after remarkable decline in April. Tea leaves suggest the worse may not be over for the Bakken.

The glut of oil and gasoline has continued to increase. Gasoline is down to $1.68 in some parts of north Texas. The persistently, stubborn low price is causing worry for Saudi Arabia.

Operations
Possible halo effect on a very old vertical well 
An MRO well produced 52,000 bbls in first 20 days 
Rig counts mean little in predicting production in the Bakken -- Mike Filloon
Denbury sells remaining non-core Williston Basin acreage

Fracking
Random update of a re-fracked well following a failed frack 

Pipelines
Update on the Dakota Access Pipeline 

Eight (8) New Permits -- July 15, 2016

Active rigs:


7/15/201607/15/201507/15/201407/15/201307/15/2012
Active Rigs2973194186215

Eight (8) new permits:
  • Operators: Whiting (3), MRO (2), BR (2), Enerplus
  • Fields: Moccasin Creek (Dunn), Reunion Bay (Mountrail), Blue Buttes (McKenzie), Antelope (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Three permits renewed:
  • BR (2), a Helson permit and a Craterhawk permit, both in McKenzie County
  • Whiting, a Wright permit in McKenzie County

Top 23 Bakken Fields Based On Oil Production Per Well -- May, 2016

Ranked in descending order, fourth column - "May oil / well / month."

Field
May 2016 Production
May Wells
May Oil/Well/Month
Percent Change Apr-to-May





Spotted Horn
756,635
86
8,798
0.52%
Long Creek
233,213
27
8,638
31.08%
Twin Valley
120,559
18
6,698
-16.41%
Pershing
230,624
39
5,913
3.59%
Grail
980,087
172
5,698
-7.56%
Camel Butte
188,393
34
5,541
-9.44%
Bear Den
242,148
44
5,503
-15.36%
Crazy Man Creek
238,769
44
5,427
11.86%
Corral Creek
802,581
148
5,423
8.24%
Antelope 
862,851
164
5,261
2.67%
Johnson Corner
157,295
31
5,074
20.79%
Blue Buttes
650,386
140
4,646
26.57%
Elm Tree
138,701
31
4,474
9.89%
Tobacco Garden
229,960
52
4,422
6.47%
McGregory Buttes
410,277
93
4,412
-6.99%
East Fork
456,669
104
4,391
-9.79%
Keene
196,933
45
4,376
13.42%
Bear Creek
117,299
27
4,344
-26.45%
Grinnell
196,253
47
4,176
31.04%
Camp
523,724
127
4,124
13.46%
Mandaree
333,668
82
4,069
-1.82%
South Fork
116,404
29
4,014
-1.48%


The last (fifth) column is the percent change in production per well from April, 2016, to May, 2016. This is independent of the number of new wells or wells newly shut in or inactivated.

Top 20 Fields By Field Production -- May, 2016 -- The Bakken

Field
April Wells
May 2016 Production
May Wells
May Oil/Well/Month
Percent Change Apr-to-May
Sanish
600
1,503,121
600
2,505
0.03%
Parshall
365
1,092,382
433
2,523
-0.74%
Grail
172
980,087
172
5,698
-7.56%
Antelope 
162
862,851
164
5,261
2.67%
Alger 
310
855,217
312
2,741
22.63%
Corral Creek
148
802,581
148
5,423
8.24%
Siverston
223
788,308
223
3,535
2.21%
Spotted Horn
80
756,635
86
8,798
0.52%
Banks
173
657,457
176
3,736
27.76%
Blue Buttes
137
650,386
140
4,646
26.57%
Reunion Bay 
146
582,569
146
3,990
-3.73%
Heart Butte
177
555,355
177
3,138
-2.48%
Alkali Creek
141
554,427
141
3,932
2.29%
Camp
127
523,724
127
4,124
13.46%
Van Hook
178
518,249
178
2,912
14.64%
Truax
171
491,445
171
2,874
-4.04%
East Fork
104
456,669
104
4,391
-9.79%
McGregory Buttes
88
410,277
93
4,412
-6.99%
Big Bend
116
409,073
116
3,526
86.65%
Robinson Lake
168
406,293
172
2,362
-7.65%

Top twenty fields in order of total field production, descending. 

The last (sixth) column is the percent change in production per well. This is independent of the number of new wells or wells newly shut in or inactivated. All data is May, 2016, except for the second column which is the number of producing wells in April, 2016.

So, for example:
  • Alger field: only two additional wells in May, but production per well increased by almost 23%.
  • Banks field: only three additional wells in May, but production per well increased by almost 28%
  • Blue Buttes field: similar results as Alger and Banks fields
  • Camp, Van Hook: double digit percent increase in production per well, but same number of wells
  • Big Bend: huge increase in percent change in production per well, but number of wells unchanged