Locator: 50544B.
US markets: pull back slightly after S&P 500 hits all-time record yesterday.
- BRK-B: down another dollar
- AMD: new 52-week high; up $14; trading at $272
- MU: up slightly, essentially flat
- GLW: continues to struggle
Mideast: it still boggles my mind that folks who should know better --
- would like to see the US military weakened / defeated by Iran if it meant the end of the president's political future; their go-to article today -- "The War Has Weakened The US" -- The New York Times.
- feel Iran was perfectly safe with / entitled to nuclear weapons;
- going to war was not worth expensive gasoline
- $5.00 gasoline in the states / $6.00 in California just to stop a nuclear Iran;
- the atrocities list is endless; abbreviated, going back to
- NYC World Trade Towers, 9/11 -- 2001
- October 7, 2023 -- Hezbollah / Hamas kidnap / kill thousand(s?) of Iraqis
- US Marines barracks in Beirut: October 23, 1983
- Iran using snipers to kill Iranian women protesting, 2026
- everything else is noise
Iran peace deal: won't give up (on) Hezbollah. See previous bullets (no pun intended).
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $93.04. Oil traders must have been spooked by DOD's press conference this morning.
New wells reporting:
- Friday, April 17, 2026: 49 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 206 for the year,
- 40953, conf, Hunt Oil, Shell 153-89-6-31H 1,
- Thursday, April 16, 2026: 48 for the month, 48 for the quarter, 205 for the year,
- 42182, conf, BR, Omlid 4--7 MBH,
- 42180, conf, BR, Abercrombie 112MBH,
- 41804, conf, XTO, GBU Athena 31X-3H,
- 41803, conf, XTO, GBU Athena 31X-3D,
- 40954, conf, Hunt Oil, Shell 153-89-8-17H 1,
RBN Energy: Will Surging Cash Flows Tempt Still-Disciplined E&Ps to Ramp up Spending? Link here. RBN Energy. Archived.
Weak Q4 2025 results provided a timely check-in on how upstream E&Ps were allocating capital in a lower-price environment — just before a sudden commodity price tailwind in 2026 from the onset of Middle East hostilities. Managements have said they would stick to the capital discipline that won back the hearts and wallets of investors; however, surging oil and gas prices this year are putting more cash back into E&P coffers. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the Q4 2025 cash allocation of U.S. E&Ps and address the question: Will discipline hold, or will temptation take over?
Across our universe of 35 companies, cash flow from operating activities (CFOA) declined 12% in Q4 2025 from the previous quarter to $24.7 billion, reflecting weaker oil prices. Despite that pressure, capital allocation priorities remained largely intact. Capital spending fell modestly to $15.3 billion, or approximately 62% of cash flow, preserving a reinvestment framework that has become increasingly embedded across the sector over the past several years.
The resulting $9.4 billion of free cash flow (FCF) — while down from the prior quarter — continued to be deployed in a balanced manner. Companies shifted toward net asset sales, generating $1.8 billion of net proceeds, while also resuming debt-reduction efforts with $2.2 billion of net repayments. Shareholder returns remained a core priority, with dividends and share repurchases accounting for 11% and 15% of CFOA, respectively, underscoring the durability of return-of-capital frameworks even in a softer pricing environment. These trends were broadly consistent across our Oil-Weighted, Diversified and Gas-Weighted peer groups, highlighting just how ingrained this capital discipline has become.
Taken together, Q4 2025 reinforced a broader structural shift in the industry — away from growth-at-all-costs and toward a more measured, cash-return-focused model. That evolution is illustrated clearly in Figure 1 below, which shows how reinvestment rates (blue bars and left axis) have converged over time to a rough 60% of cash flow, with the balance directed toward debt reduction, shareholder returns and opportunistic transactions. Even as commodity prices softened in recent years, companies resisted the urge to chase volumes, instead scaling back capital spending to preserve this framework.
Figure 1. E&Ps’ Reinvestment Rate, 2014-25.
Source: Oil & Gas Financial Analytics LLC
