Thursday, August 13, 2015

Random Look At A Huge CLR Well In Alkali Creek -- August 13, 2015

Note the number of stages and amount of proppant used in this well by CLR:
  • 26272, 1,307, CLR, Rehak Federal 7-25H, Alkali Creek, 50 stages, 7.2 million lbs sand/ceramic, t12/14; cum 111K 6/15;
The other Rehak Federal wells in Alkali Creek:
  • 26273, 1,639, CLR, Rehak Federal 6-25H1, Three Forks, 50 stages, 10 million lbs sand/ceramic, drilling - 15 days total, t12/14; cum 123K 6/15;
  • 25966, 955, CLR, Rehak Federal 5-25H1, drilling - 14 days total, t5/14; cum 119K 6/15;
  • 25965, 1,112, CLR, Rehak Federal 4-25H, drilling - 15 days total, t5/14; cum 93K 6/15;

Four (4) New Permits; Whiting With Three More Big Tarpon Federal Wells; HRC With A Big Well; North Dakota -- August 13, 2015

Active rigs:

Active Rigs72193184203191

Wells coming off confidential list Friday:
  • 22554, 2,274, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 44-19-1RTF, Sand Creek, 30 stages, 3.2 million lbs, t2/15; cum 55K 6/15; off-line much of the time;
  • 22555, 3,259, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 44-199-2RTF, Sand Creek, 30 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t2/15; cum 61K 6/15; off-line much of the time;
  • 22556, 2,967, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 44-19-2RH, Sand Creek, 30 stages, 3.9 million lbs, t2/15; cum 57K 6/15; off-line much of the time;
  • 27126, 2,894, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-23D-14-7, Eagle Nest, 48 stages, 4.9 million lbs; a nice well, choked back?; t2/15; cum 107K 6/15;
  • 28014, 221, EOG, Parshall 67-2117H, Parshall, t2/15; cum 63K 6/15;
  • 29392, drl, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14D, Bear Den, no production data,
The Tarpon Federal wells are followed here. Remember, one of the Tarpon Federal wells was a "record-setting well."

Permit renewals: ten (10) permits renewed, including --
  • Six (6) Hess permits (3 BW-Johnson permits, 3 BW-Erler permits, all in McKenzie County)
  • Three (3) HRC permits (Fort Berthold wells in Dunn County)
One (1) producing well completed:
  • 29005, 2,314, XTO, David Federal 21X-20A, Lost Bridge, t7/15; cum --
Four (4) new permits --

Bakken Economy; The Williston Wire -- August 13, 2015

From The Williston Wire:
Another major piece of the prime two-lane highway into the Bakken shale play would be widened and the old Long X Bridge possibly replaced following a study going on now. The North Dakota Department of Transportation is looking into improving 67 miles of U.S. Highway 85 from Watford City to Interstate 94 at Belfield. The highway has already undergone a dramatic transformation with a $300 million infusion of oil money to build it out to four lanes between Watford City and Williston. The ongoing study will look at alternatives for improving the southern leg.
The Long X Bridge is the one down near the north unit of the Teddy Roosevelt National Park. I'm sure it's just a matter of time before it's widened. It's about the last real choke point in western North Dakota and affects all those tourists wanting to visit both the north unit and the south unit.  

Three New Whiting Pronghorn Federal Wells In Park Oil Field -- August 13, 2015

I track the Park oil field here.

A reader asked a question regarding the three new Whiting Pronghorn permits: which direction would they run? My answer: based on the pattern in the area, my hunch was that two wells would run one direction, the third well wold run the opposite direction. So let's see. According to the permits, one will run north, two will run south:
  • 31779, loc, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-13-2PH, Park, 13/24-140-100, Three Forks B1,
  • 31780, loc, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-13PH, Park, 13/24-140-100, Three Forks B1,
  • 31781, loc, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 24-12PH, Park, 1/12-140-100, Three Forks B1,
Other Pronghorn Federal and Pronghorn State Federal wells:
  • 28687, loc, Whiting, Pronghorn State Federal 14-9PH, Park,
  • 27967, loc, Whiting, Pronghorn State Federal 11-16PH, Park,
  • 27692, 2,873, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 14-12PH, Park, t11/14; cum 181K 6/15;
  • 27691, 2,683, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 11-13PH, Park, 40 stages, 5.7 million lbs, t11/14; cum 156K 6/15;
  • 24830, 2,542, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 44-11PH, Park, t7/14; cum 142K 6/15;
  • 24821, 1,236, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 14-11PH, Park, t7/14; cum 65K 6/15;
  • 24542, 1,176, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 11-14PH, Park, t7/14; cum 66K 6/15;
  • 24541, 1,113, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-14 CL PH, Park, t7/14; cum 64K 6/15;
  • 24162, 1,327, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 44-10PH, Park, t7/13; cum 61K 6/15;
  • 24161, 716, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 41-15PH, Park, t8/13; cum 54K 6/15;
  • 24160, 863, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 34-10PH, Park, t7/13; cum 55K 6/15;
  • 24159, 1,195, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 44-10PH, Park, t2/15; cum 47K 6/15; choked back 6/15;
  • 24158, 954, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 11-15PH, Park, t2/15; cum 46K 6/15;
  • 24157, 1,179, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-15PH, Park, t2/15; cum 51K 6/15;
  • 23850, 508, Whiting, Pronghorn State Federal 41-16PH, Park, t5/13; cum 49K 6/15;
  • 23849, 572, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 44-9PH, Park, t5/13; cum 41K 6/15;
  • 21090, 468, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 34-9PH, Park, t5/13; cum 43K 6/15;
  • 20839, 905, Whiting, Pronghorn State Federal 21-16TFH, Park, t3/12; cum 61K 6/15;
  • 20504, 2,696, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-13TFH, Park, 30 stages, 2 million lbs, t12/11; cum 219K 6/15;
  • 20404, 1,606, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-14TFH, Park, t10/11; cum 124K 6/15;

Surprise, Surprise! Tesla To Raise Another Half-Billion; Issue More Shares -- August 13, 2015

Link here.

And just to assure everyone this is not a scam, Elon Musk is going to use $20 million of his "own" money to buy some of these new shares.
Tesla has filed to sell 2.1 million shares of common stock — worth around $500 million — and CEO Elon Musk wants some.
In a filing on Thursday, Tesla said Musk had "indicated his preliminary interest" in buying $20 million of this offering, or around 84,000 shares.
I imagine $20 million for Mr Musk is a rounding error on his personal wealth.

The interesting story is how fast this happened. Pundits were talking about Tesla's need for more liquidity, how it was burning through cash very quickly. I think a lot of folks thought Tesla might hold off longer, but coming so soon after the $750 million bailout suggests .... well, whatever.

I haven't been consistent in tracking the Tesla story but much has been tracked here.  How much coal does it take to charge a Tesla one time? Seventy-five (75) pounds of coal every time a Tesla is charged. Isn't the range about 200 - 400 miles? That's a lot of coal.

Summer Evening In Western North Dakota -- Vern Whitten Photographs

Another great set of photographs from Vern Whitten. If you appreciate these photos, please drop Mr Whitten a line to thank him for sharing these photographs. I really appreciate getting them for the blog.

Summer evening in western North Dakota.

Vern Whitten Photography
(701) 261-7658

These are incredible photographs, mostly of the area around Williston, North Dakota. Folks who lived in Williston or visited Williston prior to 2010 will be amazed at how the city has grown. The underpass under the bypass is incredible, to say the least. The new high school is coming along -- another incredible addition to Williston.

I certainly hope the operators keep the pads looking as good as they do right now. The pads blend in with the surrounding landscape about as good as they possibly could. The contrast between the pads and the huge river / lake is amazing. The string of wells almost look like a links course for a giant Sam Snead.

More later. I'm off to see our one-year-old.

Thursday, August 13, 2015; Western Canadian Liquid Production To Increase In 2016 -- Peak Oil? What Peak Oil?

Job watch: wow, the spin never quits. First time unemployment claims:
  • up unexpectedly;
  • exceeds forecasts; and,
  • all this after a gazillion dollars in stimulus;
And Reuters highlights how good the trend is.
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, but the trend continued to point to a strengthening labor market.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 274,000 for the week ended Aug. 8, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were revised to show 1,000 fewer applications received than previously reported. 
The headline: U.S. jobless claims up, four-week average lowest since 2000. The lowest four-week average because of an anomalous report four weeks ago. Four-week average fell 1,750 to 266,250 last week, the lowest since April 2000.



Another phony number. The number may not be phony but the numbers would be a lot different if federal / state tax credits were removed. I wonder how the BMW i8 would sell if owners were given a $10,000 tax credit. Whatever. is reporting:
A new survey of plug-in hybrid and electric car drivers by Ford Motor Company finds that 90% of the 10,000 people surveyed like driving a plug in hybrid or electric car and have no plans to go back to driving a gasoline-powered car in the future.
Actually that's not a bit surprising.

First, why would anyone say they made a mistake in the first place. (By the way, this survey is at odds with real activity; previously reported.)

Second, they get that huge tax credit. The folks that buy these small EVs are exactly the folks who are price sensitive and depend on the tax break.

Third, one of the big obstacles to buying an EV is getting the $2,000 charging station put in one's garage (apartment dwellers are out of luck in most cases). Once someone has invested $2,000 in a charging station, it hardly makes sense not to take advantage of it.

So, we'll see.

I think it's a non-story.

E-mail Gate?

There are two issues. First issue, will this affect her nomination? Hard to say. I'm betting she is still nominated. But I have several months in which to continue betting. Today's wager is fairly small.

Second issue: if it does become a criminal case, how high will it reach? Which of the "H's" will be charged -- or will they both be charged?

Back to the Bakken

NG gas fill rate (dynamic link): 65. In the East Region, stocks were 61 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 53 Bcf.

WTI oil could go into the $30-range.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs72193184203191

RBN Energy: update on the crude oil distribution in the Houston area.
Crude oil distribution to Houston area refineries is still being re-plumbed to reflect the ongoing transition to domestic supply. Although plenty of new pipelines provide access for new crude flows into Houston, logistic challenges arise from a crude quality mismatch with refinery configurations. The handling of condensate – whether lightly processed for export or refined in a splitter is also increasing infrastructure overhead.
Today we look at new crude infrastructure challenges in the Houston area.
A key crude logistics issue for the Gulf Coast refining industry in general and Houston in particular is overcoming the mismatch between refineries built decades ago in an era when available crude quality was expected to get heavier (i.e. with a lower API degrees gravity) and more sour (with a higher sulfur content) and new crude supplies from domestic shale basins that are light or ultra-light (higher API degrees gravity) and sweet (low sulfur). What that means today is that U.S. refineries – as configured – can only absorb so much domestic light crude and need to continue importing heavy and medium grade crudes in order to optimize processing. We discussed the topic in detail at our “Surviving The Flood” conference with Turner Mason & Company a year ago in Houston. [That's what the Keystone XL was all about. That could be the #1 reason why gasoline prices remain high despite a glut of oil. Refiners are recouping their money they lost on betting on the Keystone XL.]
For Houston region refineries that means all remaining waterborne crude imports are medium and heavy crudes and that those imports are not likely to be totally replaced by domestic crude anytime soon because the refineries can’t handle much more light crude. But within that wider issue there are a lot more subtle changes going on that complicate the flow of crude in and around Houston.
Western Canadian oil sands production is projected to increase in 2016.
Wood Mackenzie Ltd.'s breakeven review of more than 180 individual company assets in western Canada reveals significant variation in the economics of each core area. The results show many of the Canadian plays yielding comparable returns to key producing plays in the US Lower 48.
"Our Western Canadian liquids production forecast is underpinned by an increasing commodity price environment and growing demand for oil sands diluent," said Peter Argiris, WoodMac upstream analyst in Calgary. "We anticipate an upward trajectory in volumes beginning in 2016 and peaking in 2021 with the Montney, Duvernay, and Cardium formations driving volumes."