France, Germany On A Collision Course Over Energy; US To Become Global Leader In LNG Exports -- December 5, 2021

Updates

Later, 7:34 p.m. CT: with regard to LNG / natural gas and US dominance, a reader replied to the note below --

Minimal data presentation ...

On Thursday, Venture Global announced firm plans to build CP2.

• Update: December 15, 2024: Plaquemines up and running. Link here.

This is in ADDITION to the anticipated announcement of FID for Plaquemines Parish in the coming days.

Numbers ...

• 10 mtpa Calcasieu Pass is now in test phase and will export LNG within a few week's time.
• Plaquemines Parish is identical to Calcasieu Pass  but twice the size. (Essentially building 2 Calcasieu Pass on one site).
• CP2 is identical to Plaquemines Parish and adjacent to Calcasieu Pass.
• Cumulative output from these 3 projects will be ~50 mtpa, which surpasses the much ballyhooed expansion from Qatar which is ~49 mtpa.

For context, 1 mtpa (million tonnes per annum) comes out to about 150 million cubic feet per day as gas is consumed in the liquefaction process. So ... 50 mtpa will require about 7 1/2 Billion Bcfd ... about 2 and a half times the current Bakken natgas production.

Original Post 

I occasionally update "the big stories." I started writing about "the North American energy revolution" in 2013. An early observation: the center of gravity for fossil fuel has clearly moved from the Mideast and Russia to North America, June 26, 2016.

Now this, these two stories this past weekend. First, from The [London] Express: EU revolt as France and Germany go head-to-head over energy crisis.

Cracks are starting to show in the European Union's united front as Germany and France go head-to-head over the bloc's deepening energy crisis. 

Member states including France and Spain have called on the European Union to reform its energy market in a bid to save it from collapse. 

The global energy crunch has already caused gas prices to rise more than 600 percent this year and experts fear the EU will experience a full-blown crisis this winter. 

However, European ministers clashed on Thursday when a coalition of member states, including Germany, opposed calls to reform the bloc's market rules.The crisis has also touched the UK where nearly 30 energy suppliers have gone bust, leaving millions of customers in a state of uncertainty.

We may hear a lot of horror stories this winter with regard to the US, including my fascination with ISO NE, but none of that will compare to those horror stories in Europe (but those horror stories, regardless where they come from, will come from the same source -- faux environmentalists).

Meanwhile, from twitter, "the US is surging to become the global leader in natural gas exports." Global leader. The US is expected to become the world's largest LNG exporter once Sabine Pass LNG Train 6 and all 18 mid-scale trains at Calcawieu Pass LNG are in service.

And, of course, if Brandon doesn't interfere. Which is not even beyond him. 

Details at EIA.

I track LNG export terminals here.

Top Stories For 2021 -- IN PROGRESS

Top stories by month for the year 2021: link here. 

I'm starting to put the top stories for 2021 together. 

This will be updated for the next sixty days before it goes final. Please feel free to offer suggestions.

Permits in North Dakota, annual summary, 2021. Link pending.

Comment: 

2020: It is interesting to look at the summary comment for 2019 where the US economy was on an incredible roll. That all stopped in 2020. The Chinese flu / Wuhan flu / Covid-19 pandemic was THE story of 2020. The pandemic telescoped 2020 - 2035 into 2020 - 2025. In the energy arena, twenty years from now, 2020 will be seen as the year that the world had clearly pivoted from "black" to "green." That pivot culminated in the election of a "green" president. 

2021: Meanwhile, 2021, was the year that the US economy took off ... until the flash crash the day after Thanksgiving. The Biden administration is committed to shutting down fossil fuel in an effort to pivot to "green" energy.  For investors, "meme stocks" were the stocks to be in ... until they weren't -- again the flash crash suggested that investors realized that it might be best if the companies they invested in actually made money.

The top story in 2021, without question has to be the fact that the number of cases of Covid-19 in the US set an all-time record at the end of the year and showed no signs of peaking. At the end of the year, President Biden termed the pandemic a problem for the individual states, that the pandemic would have to be solved at the state level, a federal, one-size-fits-all plan would not work. And then the President went on vacation. Meanwhile, the US economy surged; Wall Street surged; and things would have been even better had there not been a supply chain problem. That was 2021 in a nutshell: record number of Covid-19 cases in the US; President Biden walks away; economy surges; supply chain disruptions dominated the economic news but these disruptions appears to be waning by the end of the year.

Elevator speech: the stories that dominated the Bakken in 2021:

• The year drilling returned in the Bakken, but with a rig count that never hit the high-30's in number. 
• In fact, the number of active oil and gas rigs in the Bakken never exceeded thirty-four.
  
• The new status quo: fewer permits, fewer rigs; steady production; great free cash flow.
  

Transitions:

• Pre-packaged bankruptcies / reorganizations of 2020 were behind us;
• "Early" operators returned to drilling; most stayed out with a wait-and-see attitude;
  

International, non-energy:

• Saudi Arabia cash reserves surge by the end of the year, but still near all-time lows;
  
• Covid-19 seemed to have been beaten; then a new variant popped up in late November: Omicron.
• US finished the year with a record number of Covid-19 cases.
  
• Russian, Chinese, North Korean, Iranian drum-beating remains absent -- perhaps with one exception: Ukraine, where Putin is massing troops on the border.
  

International energy:

• Energy crisis, winter, 2021 - 2022, for UK and EU; energy prices surging at start of winter; were starting to come down at the end of the year with a flotilla of US LNG tankers sailing to Europe;
  
• More and more apparent OPEC+ does not have much spare capacity; this will be a controversial theme in 2022;
  
• OPEC+ forecasts a glut of oil in 1Q22, certainly by 2Q22; not eager to increase production even though energy prices for the consumers sky-high; raises the question of "spare capacity"
  

National, non-energy:

• Biden does surprisingly well despite "novel" way of governing; 
• walks away from Afghanistan; 
• walks away from federal solution for Covid-19
• walks away from high gasoline prices
• walks away from "southern surge"
  
• Apple's M1 chip was a top tech story in 2020; Apple remains a top tech story in 2021, saying it will accelerate plans for an EV; mentioned it once, then never mentioned it again;
  
• Corporate migration from CA to TX continues; 
• Tesla HQ officially to Texas, late 2021;
• Of the big names, Chef Ramsay announced his move from CA to TX at the end of the year;
  
• Late in the year, remote learning / virtual meetings (WebEx, Zoom) is back in focus;
  
• Tesla, Rivian, Lucid: the top three automotive companies by market cap
• Supply chain obstacles practically shut down US economy; things improving after Christmas (eithe that or simply no longer being reported)
  

National, energy:

• US: third year of energy independence (folks argue this point; that's fine; we know)
  
• Political pundits tell us Biden has made US dependent on foreign oil again, but that's "political talk"; the US remains very, very independent; 
  
• LNG became the story in 2020; remains the story in 2021
  

**************************************
Top Stories of 2021
By Category

Top Story Of The Year:

• The never-ending hysteria over Covid-19; the year ended with global concerns re: omicron
• US records highest number of active cases by the end of the year and no sign of peaking;
  
• Domestic and international citizens won't put up with more lock-down mandates
• Vaccine mandates losing ground in US, but more US citizens taking vaccines than ever before in light of omicron; federal judge strikes down Biden mandates on literally the last day of 2021;
• Closing out 2021: inflation; no longer considered transitory
  

Runner-up story of the year:

• The volatility of the stock market. No one knows where we are headed: even Charlie Munger says this is a most unusual year.
• Having said that, investors did very, very well; savers concerned about inflation
  

The Biden administration:

• "I don't have those numbers in front of me."
• Speaks volumes about how concerned the US SecEnergy is with regard to high price of gasoline; announces release of oil from SPR but can't put that in context.
  
• The "southern surge," as a story, is over for this administration. It no longer matters.
  

The world:

• After being in disarray last year, Saudi's foreign reserves doing better;
  
• China / US geopolitics: Putin/Xi playing chess; Biden playing checkers
• Question mark: is Puting looking to put the USSR back together or the Russian Empire?
  

Most surprising story of 2021:

• The flash crash on Thanksgiving Friday; two weeks later it was forgotten.
  
• Unranked Texas A&M defeating Alabama in college football; even so, Alabama will be playing Georgia in the championship game/
  

The most egregious story to come out of the Bakken:

The "best call" by the blog: huge mistake for Oasis to enter the Permian. 

The most frustrating story to come out of the Bakken: 

• NDIC IT. NDIC website "broke" in mid-July and by the end of the year, still broken; NDIC seems unconcerned.
  

The top US story:

• Biden doing surprisingly well.
• Huge spending bill passed
• "Build Back Better" bill close to being passed; to be continued in early 2022.
  

North Dakota, energy:

• The Bakken is back
  
• Production gradually recovers to a new status quo
  

North Dakota economy:

• Williston is fastest growing micro-city in the US
  

North Dakota technology:

• carbon capture and storage
• Spiritwood soybean - renewable diesel facility
  

Most exciting non-operator in the Bakken:

• NOG
  

Most exciting micro operator in the Bakken:

Most exciting small operator in the Bakken:

• Bruin
  

Most exciting medium operator in the Bakken:

• Slawson

Most exciting large operator in the Bakken:

• MRO

Most aggressive large operator in the Bakken:

• CLR

Biggest deals:

• 
  

Most surprising deal:

• Oasis exits the Permian
• CLR enters the Permian just weeks before the price of oil plummets
  

Record price per Bakken mineral acre, 2021 (quarterly lease sales):

•  
  

Bakken operations, rigs:

• Trended toward thirty active rigs; plateaued at 32 rigs
  

Bakken operations, production:

• Drops to third place in US but with a third of the rigs the #2 state requires
  

Bakken operations, density:

• CLR: "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead"
  

Top prediction made in 2021 for 2022:

• EVs will destroy a lot of investors, severely harm several manufacturers
  

Record initial production:

Biggest story in takeaway capacity:

• Capline pipeline reversal announced
  

CBR:

• Non-story in 2020, but the DAPL story has not yet ended
  

Pipeline:

• World's largest carbon capture pipeline: the Midwest Carbon Express
  
• DAPL story not yet ended
  

Fracking:

• Bakken 4.5: near simultaneous pad drilling, simultaneous pad fracking, and, near multi-pad completions
  

Flaring:

• ND sets all-time capture record
  

Natural gas:

• Bakken continues to set production records, month-after-month;
• Another natural gas processing plant begins operations; Bill Sanderson, west of Williston;
  

Refining:

• Dickinson greenfield refinery in trouble?
  

Investment story of the year:

The "other" Williston Basin formations:

• Nothing.
  

Bakken economy:

• Surging.
  

New (or better-understood) oil patch jargon:

• spaceholder
  

Miscellaneous:

Bakken economy -- Williston Economic Development (WED) top ten stories:

Drilled In 2006; Taken Off Line In 2019; Now Back On Line -- The XTO Sveen Well In Capa Oil Field -- December 5, 2021

The well:

• 16055, 461, XTO, Sveen 14X-34, Capa, t9/06; cum 295K 10/21;

The graphics:

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	28	1369	1193	912	2434	2064	117
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	2	0	0	0	3	2	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	21	551	594	170	1011	798	25
BAKKEN	10-2019	21	617	489	629	1123	794	143
BAKKEN	9-2019	1	1	112	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	11	115	100	53	317	276	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	630	682	322	1268	1086	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	17	323	202	232	640	437	66

Updating The CLR Woodrow Star "A" Well -- Drilled Back In 1958; Went Off Line, 2019; Back On Line 2021 -- December 5, 2021

This was a top story for November, 2021. Let's get an update.

• CLR's Woodrow Star "A" is back on line.
  

The well:

• 1987, A/AB/IA/150, CLR/Pan American/Prima, Woodrow Star "A" 1, Antelope field; Sanish; t10/58; cum 1.106383 million bbls 12/18; a vertical well; went off line 1/19; cum 1.106121 million bbls 10/21;

ool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	10-2021	31	262	238	112	579	0	178
SANISH	9-2021	30	209	233	120	600	0	195
SANISH	8-2021	27	212	229	127	562	0	211
SANISH	7-2021	14	114	0	222	227	0	38
SANISH	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The Watterberg -- Not "What-A-Burger" -- A Nice MRO Well -- December 5, 2021

The well:

• 37787, 4,119, MRO, Watterberg USA 41-5TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 8/21; t---; cum 92K 10/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	32655	32696	39761	39642	37032	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	26	36743	37719	40471	37961	34202	934
BAKKEN	8-2021	11	22496	21166	32441	24665	11470	11847

The other well on that pad:

• 37786, drl/NC, MRO, Harrington USA 11-4H, Reunion Bay, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 98K 10/21:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	50402	50366	26341	55950	51979	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	28	46406	46033	36154	55902	47248	4907
BAKKEN	8-2021	3	1257	1183	842	1588	488	1026

I've not looked at the next two wells yet. Let's look at them together. These two wells parallel the Watterberg USA and the Harrington USA wells noted above:

Two wells on the neighboring pad immediately to the west:

• 21478, IA/1,171, inactive/off line due to fracking (above); MRO, MHA USA 11-4H, Reunion Bay, t7/12; cum 383K 7/21;
• 21479, IA/1,753, inactive/off line due to fracking (above); MRO, MHA USA 11-4TFH, Reunion Bay, t6/12; cum 350K 7/21;

Graphic (at this link):

Updated graphic:

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 5, 2021

The wells:

• 38188, conf, CLR, Tallahassee FIU 4-21HSL,, Baker, no production being reported; 
• 37352, conf, Oasis, Wold 5397 44-34 12TX, Sand Creek, first production, 6/21; t--; cum --;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	11343	40076
9-2021	11269	28628
8-2021	17895	46419
7-2021	18559	42001
6-2021	6717	15587

• 36862, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 13-7-2H, Sanish, first production, 6/21; t--; cum --;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	10806	8686
9-2021	11711	10650
8-2021	6853	3661
7-2021	117	0
6-2021	192	0

• 36304, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-10B, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum --;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	13998	8955
9-2021	3734	1312
8-2021	13564	12776
7-2021	29143	26836
6-2021	25029	15594

• 37416, conf, Oasis, Wold 5397 43-34 5B, Sand Creek, first production, 6/21; t--; cum --;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	16971	69402
9-2021	29771	90899
8-2021	25540	72845
7-2021	23714	53255
6-2021	11611	25597

• 37381, conf, Oasis, Wold 5397 43-34 4B, Sand Creek, first production, 6/21; t--; cum --;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	19707	77971
9-2021	23727	72129
8-2021	17622	42217
7-2021	17585	37363
6-2021	10628	24389

• 37030, conf, Whiting, KR State 13-16HU, Sanish, first production, 6/21; t--; cum --;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	17498	20821
9-2021	19382	12673
8-2021	4209	1277
7-2021	621	0
6-2021	1151	0

• 36305, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-8T, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum --;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	15401	18048
9-2021	18854	20869
8-2021	19048	20633
7-2021	24136	26045
6-2021	23771	17503

• 36306, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-7B, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum --;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	19241	24340
9-2021	25138	29932
8-2021	31704	34065
7-2021	51040	57077
6-2021	33244	26488

• 38189, conf,  CLR, Tallahassee FIU 8-21HSL, Baker, no production being reported; 
• 36307, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-6T, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum --;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	2874	1864
9-2021	0	19
8-2021	0	17
6-2021	61	52

• 38249, conf, CLR, Candee 9-9HSL, Chimney Butte, no production data, 
• 37439, conf, Oasis, Wold 5397 43-34 6B, Sand Creek, first production, 6/21; t--; cum --;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	17014	59050
9-2021	35172	95624
8-2021	33532	84969
7-2021	31166	68677
6-2021	12597	26103

• 38250, conf, CLR, Candee 10-9H1, Chimney Butte, first production, 10/21; t--; minimal production being reported:
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	291	0

• 36863, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 13-7XH, Sanish, first production, 6/21; t--; cum --;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	16715	13989
9-2021	14247	13219
8-2021	14753	7573
7-2021	5569	289
6-2021	232	0

• 38251, conf, CLR, Kukla 8-16HSL, Chimney Butte, first production, 10/21; t--; minimal production being reported:
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	296	0

• 37624, conf, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5297 11-6 10BX, Banks, first production, 6/21; t--; cum --;
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	14966	69591
9-2021	23079	82700
8-2021	26815	76802
7-2021	30099	73271
6-2021	21004	47095

• 38252, conf, CLR, Kukla 9-16H1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 5, 2021

Monday, December 13, 2021: 68 for the month, 71 for the quarter, 323 for the year:
38188, conf, CLR, Tallahassee FIU 4-21HSL,
37352, conf, Oasis, Wold 5397 44-34 12TX,
36862, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 13-7-2H,
36304, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-10B,

Sunday, December 12, 2021: 64 for the month, 67 for the quarter, 319 for the year:
37416, conf,  Oasis, Wold 5397 43-34 5B,
37381, conf,  Oasis, Wold 5397 43-34 4B,
37030, conf, Whiting, KR State 13-16HU,
36305, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-8T,

Saturday, December 11, 2021: 60 for the month, 63 for the quarter, 314 for the year:
None.

Friday, December 10, 2021: 60 for the month, 63 for the quarter, 314 for the year:
36306, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-7B,

Thursday, December 9, 2021: 59 for the month, 62 for the quarter, 313 for the year:
38189, conf,  CLR, Tallahassee FIU 8-21HSL,
36307, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-6T,

Wednesday, December 8, 2021: 57 for the month, 60 for the quarter, 311 for the year:
None.

Tuesday, December 7, 2021: 57 for the month, 60 for the quarter, 311 for the year:
38249, conf, CLR, Candee 9-9HSL,
37439, conf, Oasis, Wold 5397 43-34 6B,

Monday, December 6, 2021: 55 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 309 for the year:
38250, conf, CLR, Candee 10-9H1,
36863, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 13-7XH,

Sunday, December 5, 2021: 53 for the month, 56 for the quarter, 307 for the year:
38251, conf, CLR, Kukla 8-16HSL,
37624, conf, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5297 11-6 10BX, 

Saturday, December 4, 2021: 51 for the month, 54 for the quarter, 305 for the year:
38252, conf, CLR, Kukla 9-16H1,
37440, conf, Oasis, Wold 5297 11-6 2B,

Christmas Stocking Stuffer -- For Texas-Sized Stockings -- December 5, 2021

It looks like the "big item" that will be pushed this Christmas: the Ninja Foodi and similar kitchen-counter-top roasters and grillers.

We were at Belk yesterday -- one of the best all-around discount department stores out there. We love it. It's right out our back door. We can walk to it in less than five minutes, and it even has a "back door" that makes it that much closer, not having to walk all the way around to the front. LOL. 

But there they were, just like those being advertised on television, quantities of the Ninja Foodie in all its various models and similar roasters by other companies. I have no idea if these are the same products with new marketing or if there really is something going on here.

The Foodi that we looked at, and the one advertised on television, regular price: $299.99. At Belk, $169.99. At Target, about a quarter-mile down the road selling the same time for $179.99. On-line, I see Kohl's is also selling them for $179.99.

There are so many models out there, it was hard to find the one I saw advertised, the one that flips up out of the way for easy storage on the countertop, but I believe it's this one. It must be. About the same price as advertised, but discounted to $229.99 at Bed Bath & Beyond:

Note that it's "top-rated" and you have to hurry: there's only "one left."

I can't make this stuff up.

By the way, our local Target had so many large flat-screen smart TVs, they were stacked in the clothing department. One starts to understand the supply chain shortage.

The Energy Gap Between US And Rest Of World Will Continue To Widen -- December 5, 2021

A recurrent theme on the blog for the past ten years. Link here. 

Couldn't A Local Weatherperson Forecast This? December 5, 2021

Updates

Later, 1:26 p.m. CT, from a reader:

Not only have the Russian ships been trapped by the early onset of Arctic freezing, a supply company for inland Alaska companies has also temporarily abandoned barges as rivers have become non-navigable due to early freeze ups. 

As this has also  happened a year or so back, the company is thinking that it may need to shorten its ice-free 'delivery window'  in the coming years.

Original Post

In PowerLine's weekly photos posted yesterday, there was a headline about the Arctic Sea freezing early this year. I truly thought it was a parody of something but a little fact-checking led me to this:

 

One would think "they" could have forecast this. It's not like the Arctic freezes overnight ... or does it?

Well, That Didn't Take Long -- Administration Press Releases Being Faxed To News Rooms Across The Nation -- Vaccines In Short Supply -- December 5, 2021

This is really quite hilarious -- the timing, the serendipity, the reality ... yesterday I posted the following:

Quick! According to the WHO, how many people have died of the new Covid-19 variant, Omicron?

• <less than 0.1% of those infected; or,
• ~ 0.1% of those infected; or,
• ~ 0.15% of those infected; or,
• somewhere between 0.15% and 0.2%
  

Answer to be provided in a later post if I don't forget.

For investors: an open-book test and it isn't rocket science. My understanding: one or two of the US vaccines remain the vaccines of choice.

I don't think shortages will occur, although it could be close. But if Brandon really wants to get folks vaccinated, all he has to do is announce that due to high demand, there may be shortages of the vaccine after the first of the year.  

So, now, this morning, in my twitter feed, the Brandon press has done just that -- started faxing out press releases about overwhelming demand for vaccines could lead to ... well, lead to this, according to The Bismarck Tribune: graphics pending. 

This Slawson Well Has Just Gone Over 700K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- No Pump -- NDIC -- December 5, 2021

The well:

• 17354, 2,205, Slawson, Whitmore 1-7H, Parshall, t10/08; cum 686K 4/20; off-line as of 8/18; see this post; back on line as of 12/18; off line 2/21; back on line, F, cum 700K 10/21; see this post; cum 698K 9/21;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	2251	2411	254	2988	2833	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	2058	1813	281	2579	2429	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	2133	2088	256	2472	2317	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	2092	2078	306	2284	2129	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	2064	2014	357	2059	1909	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	2135	2158	354	1767	1590	22