One New Permit -- Equity Markets Fall -- January 31, 2025

Locator: 48452B.

Link here. Wall Street Journal. Obama. FAA. DEI.

US equity markets fell after confirmation that Trump will impose tariffs tomorrow, Saturday, February 1, 2025, on Canada and Mexico, raise tariffs on China by an additional 10%.  

That was made very clear during the White House press conference earlier today but there seems to be some legal room / some bureaucratic "legalese" that suggests "negotiations" continued later today into exactly what will take place tomorrow.  Behind the scenes, each side is negotiating what they expect the other side to do.

There are indications the executive order will be signed tomorrow, February 1, 2025, but the tariffs won't go into effect until March 1, 2025, giving "everyone" a chance to negotiate.

Get out the popcorn: link here. NYT. The purge has already begun, according to NBC Nightly News. "

All six senior FBI agents" have been fired (or resigned prior to being fired). Heads of several regional FBI offices have also been let go. Can you imagine, on the short list to be the next director of the FBI after twenty years working for the FBI, and now finding yourself looking for a job in the civilian world. I assume full retirement is 30 years; can you imagine being let go at 26 years?

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.5.

Active rigs: 36.

One new permits, #41572:

• 40572, conf, Empire North Dakota, Utah Raptor 1 1H, Starbuck, lot 2 section 1-160-79, Bottineau oil field, to be sited 430 FNL and 1350 FEL.

Immigration, Deportation, Lawyers At The Border -- January 31, 2025

Locator: 48451TRUMP.

From Bloomberg:

Biden, Buttigieg: Asleep At The Wheel, Blood On Their Hands -- WSJ -- January 31, 2025

Locator: 48450BLOOD.

See disclaimer.

Has Lloyd Austin's DEI-army killed more Americans this year than terrorists? Asking for a friend.

US 15-year aviation safety record comes to an end. 

And then they blame Trump for politicizing this?

Was Lloyd Austin himself a DEI hire? From wiki:

• Before retiring from the military in 2016, Austin served as the 12th commander of United States Central Command (CENTCOM), beginning in March 2013.
• Prior to that he served as the 33rd vice chief of staff of the Army from January 2012 to March 2013, and as commander of United States Forces – Iraq from September 2010 to December 2011. 
• He is the first African American to hold each of these positions. 
• After retiring from the armed services, Austin joined the boards of Raytheon Technologies, Nucor, Tenet Healthcare, and Auburn University.
• On December 7, 2020, he was nominated for defense secretary by then-President-elect Joe Biden and was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 22, 2021, by a vote of 93–2.

If he was not a DEI hire, why was that important to note -- the fourth sentence in his wiki bio -- "the first African American to hold each of these positions." 

And then, of course, the Peter Principle may be at play, also.  

It will be interesting to watch:

• how the new SecDefense handles this;
• the names of those flag officers who signal intention to retire this year;
• who becomes the scapegoat

Maybe it is time to read, not to place blame but to learn how Sec Defense "thinks" about these issues:

With regard to the mishap, exhibit A should be the transcript of the conversation between ATC and the mishap helicopter:

• it starts with the ATC query: "do you see..."
• is that a common question to ask?
• was ATC seeing something amiss?
• was ATC concerned or does this happen often: helicopter and fixed wing a/c on collision course?
• how much time did ATC think helicopter had to react if the two a/c were on a collision course?
• after getting "affirmative" from the helicopter did ATC move on to next task?
• what was ATC's next task after getting "affirmative" from helicopter?
• NY Times: link here. 
• Captain Lobach was undergoing her annual evaluation flight, with Chief Warrant Officer 2 Andrew Lloyd Eaves, age 39, serving as her evaluator.

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Chain of Command

Chain of command:

12th Aviation Battalion

• the helicopter was from the 12th Aviation Battalion at Fort Belvoir in Virginia.
• co-pilot: CWO Andrew Eaves, Bravo Company, 12th Aviation Battalion; instructor for the check ride; said to have 1,000 hours flight
  
• co-pilot / her checkride: Captain (O-3) Rebecca M Lobach; said to have had "more than 500 hours flight time"; earlier reports said 500 hours; primary duties seem to have been as a liaison of some sort between the White House and the military. Certified as "pilot in command." Joined US Army in 2019.
  
• third of three military members on the helicopter: SSgt Ryan Austin O'Hara
  
• assigned to the US Army Aviation Brigade (TAAB)
• 12th Aviation Battalion commander: Lt Col Erika A. Holownia.
• she was commissioned as a Medical Service Corps officer from the US Military Academy at West Point in 2005; link here; 
• primary a/c; flight hours as a helicopter pilot: N/A; senior aviator badge; qualified in: N/A. Bio here; Senior Aviator Badge.
  

US Army Aviation Brigade (TAAB)

• the 12 AVBAT is assigned to the US Army Aviation Brigade (TAAB). 
• Commander Colonel Andrew J. DeForest. Davison Army Airfield, Ft Belvoir, VA. 
• Qualified in UH-60, C-37, UC-35, RC-12, and EO-5C a/c. 
• reports to the US Army Military District of Washington (USAMDW)
  

US Army Military District of Washington (USAMDW) 

• reports directly to the US Chief of Staff of the Army. The training mission, I assume, is in this "chain."
• also a core staff element of the Joint Task Force-National Capital Region (JTF-NCR)
  
• Commander, USAMDW: General Trevor J. Bredenkamp

Joint Task Fork-National Capital Region (JTF-NCR) 

• operations chain
  
• reports directly to the Commander of US Northern Command. 
• Commander JTF-NCR: General Trevor J. Bredenkamp
  

US Northern Command

• operations chain
• reports directly to SecDefense
• General Gregory M. Guillot, took command February 5, 2024
• also commander NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command)

US Chief of Staff of the Army 

• General Randy A. George 
• support, not operations
  
• assumed duties, September 21, 2023
• reports to the Secretary of the Army. 

The Secretary of the Army 

• as of January 20, 2025, Mark Averill was the Acting Secretary
• reports to the Secretary of Defense.
  

Secretary of Defense

• Pete Hegseth

See disclaimer for the blog.

CVX -- Knocking It Out Of The Park -- January 31, 2025

Locator: 48449BIGOIL.

For me, the big story: CVX.

But there's also XOM: beat estimates. XOM just raised its dividend also. Link here:

Fourth quarter profit was $7.39 billion. Profit per share was $1.67, beating analyst estimates of $1.56, according to LSEG data.

The No. 1 U.S. oil producer reported total earnings of $33.46 billion for full-year 2024, down from $38.57 billion the year earlier.

The company became the largest oil producer in the Permian basin in 2024, the biggest U.S. oilfield, after closing its acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources in May.

Exxon’s low production costs in the basin and its lucrative and prolific projects in Guyana have bolstered the company’s profits despite lower oil prices and a decline in profits for making fuel.

****************************************
CVX

Before we had Amazon, we had Nvidia. Before we had Nvidia, we had AAPL. Before we had AAPL, we had CVX. Everything else was chaff.

Investors don't look back ... they look forward.

Holy mackerel: look at this dividend. Link here.

Announces hike to $1.71. Previously:

Apple: Well Said -- The Bears Miss Again -- January 31, 2025

Locator: 48448AAPL.

Link here. The bears miss again.

AAPL.

Quarterly earnings. 

Link here.

Conference Call Summary: 

Records:

• We had an all-time record quarter for revenue and earnings. 
• We also had records in the majority of the countries we are in. 
• Services also reached a record and a record installed base. 

iPhone:

• You know what didn’t hit a record? iPhone.
• However, we did hit records in some countries and markets.  
• We are also finally seeing people upgrade their phones, and we had a record number of upgrades. 
• Where we have introduced AI, we are seeing stronger upgrades of our iPhones, and the iPhone 16 is outperforming the iPhone 15 so far. 
  

Mac:

• The Mac also didn’t hit a record, but it grew 16% year-over-year. It is, after all, the best AI PC out there.

iPad:

• Siri says to tell you that people still like our iPad, too, and we had growth, but there is no record. 

Services:

• It was our Services, though, that drove our growth. 
•  Services were also more profitable, and we saw margin growth. 

Vision Pro:

• We are seeing some sales of Vision Pro to Enterprise. 

AI:

• We introduced AI to our devices, which does a lot of things you probably haven’t even tried yet, and these features are going to other countries soon. 
• Plus, we have more AI things coming. 
• DeepSeek doesn’t change anything for us. We’ve already kept our AI in-house with our own silicon, and we’ve always assumed that the cost of inferencing would come down, which is why we’ve been disciplined with our capex. 
• Yet, we really don’t expect a lot of growth in iPhone this quarter, and it will be our third quarter when we roll out AI to other countries. As the AI base grows, the usage will grow, and once you start using the features, you can’t go back, so over time, we expect AI to continue to drive upgrades. We also see a lot of opportunities in emerging markets, particularly India. Our margins will improve, and we are in a favorable commodity environment.

Movie Night -- January 30, 2025

Locator: 48447ARCHIVES.

American Graffiti, Making Of: link here. Titans: Hitchcock, Lynch, Spielberg, Lucas.

Pure insanity, link here:

The UK has a legally-binding target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. More urgently, the UK needs to slash its emissions by 81%, compared with 1990 levels, in the next 10 years to meet new climate targets submitted to the United Nations. Air travel currently contributes about 7% of UK emissions.

Top ten movies:  tonight I will be watching two movies, maybe three. Starting with American Graffiti, and then Casablanca. I don't think I have the energy to watch three. If I do, the third will be Citizen Kane. 

Here today, gone tomorrow: what do the recent empty-hydrant fires and the runway 33 crash have in common? 

Those "stories" are horrific, unprecedented, totally preventable, and then 72 hours later, they are forgotten by the press and the politicians and the news media. Something new, something bigger, something worse comes along.

Already, in less than twelve hours we've gone to ATC DEI-hires. And, again, Trump is correct. FAFO. 

What might be worse a week from now? RFK, Jr, as head of HHS.

A week ago Friday, the mayor of Los Angeles promised the president that folks in Los Angeles who lost their homes would be back to work, putting things back together in the Pacific Palisades. Has any reporter gone back to see that promise is coming along? Time for another "town hall meeting" in Los Angeles.

Top ten lists: wow, I haven't used that tag ("Top Ten Lists") in a long time. From August 30, 2019, the top 10 CLR-operated wells in the Bakken. Not really, but they were good wells at the time. Since then, many better:

Later, 4:01 p.m. CT: looking at the top 10 CLR-operated wells listed below -- the following updates (note: all are still "flowing,"  no pumps):

• 31520, SI/NC--> F/A; CLR, Steele Federal 5-24H1, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC; t1/20; cum 332K 11/24;
  
• 31521, SI/NC--> F/A; Steele Federal 6-24H, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC; t1/20; cum 371K 11/24;
• 31522, SI/NC--> F/A; CLR, Steele Federal 8-24H1, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC; t1/22; cum 252K 11/24;
  
• 31523, SI/NC--> F/A; CLR, Steele Federal 9-24H, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC; t1/20; cum 374K 11/24;
  

Biggest surprise today (for me, probably no one else): BKR raises its dividend by two cents. 

FBI: overnight Trump offers top staff opportunity to resign before being fired. Acting director doing just fine. No need to worry about whether Trump's nominee gets confirmed.

Doug Burgum: easily confirmed as Secretary of the Department of the Interior. What a huge breath of fresh air. I'm surprised that -- as much as the Dems hate Trump -- any of the US Senate democrats vote to confirm a Trump appointee. I'm surprised Republicans like the senior senator from Alaska and the moderate Republican from Vermont and MM from Kentucky vote for any Trump appointee.

Common thread among Trump's administration, cabinet? Risk-takers. Highly successful. Self-made. There are exceptions.

Weekends: we now have another reason to look forward to the weekends. On weekends, the US Congress "shuts down" as well as mainstream legacy media, but Trump has 48 hours of productive work. 

ATC: I wonder when the nation gets to meet the ATC controllers on duty that night? I'll bet the Washington, DC, ATC control towers are well staffed for the foreseeable future. 

RACE: link here.

Talk Of The Town: Trump's Tariffs -- January 31, 2025

Locator: 48446B.

Tariffs: it is being reported that President Trump will place tariffs on Mexico and Canada effective tomorrow, Saturday, February 1, 2025. 

Re-posting.

Norway. Link here. Think about it.  Political crisis in Norway due to high electricity prices. One word: EVs. And folks in the US are complaining about the price of eggs. LOL.

CVX? Wow! Did they just increase their dividend. Just after analysts E&Ps don't have the cash to pay current dividends. LOL. Link here.

Only thing I have to say today, link here. What a doofus:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $72.66.

New wells:

• Sunday, February 2, 2025: 3 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 49 for the year,
• 40455, conf, Hess, GO-Beck Living Tr-156-98-2017H-5,
• 39316, conf, CLR, Harms East Federal 1-33H,
• Saturday, February 1, 2025: 1 for the month, 47 for the quarter, 47 for the year,
• 39315, conf, CLR, Quale Federal 3-1H2,
• Friday, January 31, 2025: 46 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year,
• None.

RBN Energy: Trump's tariffs would hurt Canadian oil producers more than US refiners. Archived.

Tariffs have served as a cornerstone of President Trump’s economic vision. In the campaign, he said he could impose tariffs as high as 25% on all imported goods from Canada — including crude oil — and he could deliver on that promise at any time. This has raised concerns, especially for Canadian producers and U.S. refiners, who depend on the efficient and economical movement of barrels between the trading partners. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how much Canadian crude oil flows to the U.S., how those imports could be affected by tariffs, and how Canadian producers and U.S. refiners would share the financial impact. 

President Trump’s initial wave of executive orders (EOs) included some directly aimed at U.S. energy and trade policy (see Brand New Day). One of his first EOs directed federal agencies to investigate trade practices, including the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and was signed by Trump in 2020. The president had indicated during the campaign that he could institute a tariff of up to 25% on all imported goods from Canada and Mexico on Day 1 of his administration in response to what he has called the failure of both countries to curb the flow of people and drugs across the border. The tariffs haven’t happened yet, but White House buzz this week suggested they could go into effect as soon as Saturday, February 1, 2025.

RBN Energy: ISO-NE -- outflows of gas from northeast plunged during MLK snowstorm. Link here. Rates surged.

The Northeastern United States was pummeled by frigid weather for the four days starting on Martin Luther King Day (January 20) and ending on January 24. During this period, total Northeast gas demand averaged 37.7 Bcf/d, which is 4.6 Bcf/d higher than the month-to-date average. This is the highest level ever seen for Northeast demand. With such extremely high demand within the region, pipeline outflows fell to much lower than usual levels, as seen in the chart below. During the four days of the snowstorm ouflows from the Northeast averaged 8.1 Bcf/d.

Source: RBN NATGAS Appalachia, Wood Mackenzie

Significant reductions in regional outflow were seen on Transcontinental Pipeline (Transco) and on Texas Eastern Transmission Pipeline (TETCO). Our NATGAS Appalachia report definition of the Northeast includes Virginia, so Northeast outflows on Transco are the flows from Virginia to North Carolina south of Station 165. As Mountain Valley Pipeline flowed near capacity during the winter cold snap, it supplied all of Transco’s flows to the Southeast during the period.