Tuesday, January 30, 2018

GOP Whisks Agricultural Secretary To Undisclosed Location During SOTU In Case DC Is "Destroyed." Shutdown Schumer Wanted To Whisk Maxine Waters To An Undisclosed Location (And Leave Her There) But She Already Had Her Speech Ready -- January 30, 2018

Link here.

I was joking about Schumer/Waters but it's probably not too far from the truth. LOL.

TCM: King Kong Opposite SOTU Speech

For background "noise," what a treat. I've never seen King Kong and here it is, on TCM, opposite the speech. And, no, I'm not watching the speech. I did not even surf through the channels to catch a glimpse.  Right now, the iconic scene with King Kong falling off the Empire State Building and Fay Wray being saved.


Making America Great Again -- Add Pfizer To The List -- January 30, 2018

This page won't be updated. It's all being tracked here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship-related decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Disclaimer: the list below is not all-inclusive. If there is something I missed and you want it posted, let me know. Dates given are the dates the item was posted, not necessarily the date the announcement was made.

For those who were spooked by the market today and yesterday, look at this list:

ATT: With tax reform, AT&T plans to increase U.S. capital spending $1 billion and provide $1,000 special bonus to more than 200,000 U.S. employees. January 30, 2018.

Pfizer announces that it will increase CAPEX manufacturing by $5 billion in the US, specifically citing the new tax law. The drugmaker will pay a tax of $15 billion on overseas profits over the next eight years. It's too bad we don't have a fair and balanced mainstream media to really talk about all these investments in a fair and balanced manner. 

Exxon: to spend $50 billion in US over next five years. Cites tax bill; huge bonuses reported by glassdoor.January 29, 2018.

FedEx: increased compensation to hourly employees; performance-basedincentive plans for salaried employees. Company cited Trump's tax cuts to make this possible. January 26,2018.

Home Depot: add another company to the list -- $1,000 bonus to each employee.

Discover: raised minimum wage to $15.25 for virtually all employees; and, a $1,000 bonus to 15,000 non-salaried employees.

Solar cells; washing machines: Trump issues executive order placing 20% to 50% tariffs on washing machines; tariffs on solar cells. January 23, 2018.

Disney: to give 125,000 employees $1,000. January 23, 2018.

Verizon Verizon employees (other than top management) will receive 50 shares of restricted stock, the price of which will be set on February 1, 2018. January 23, 2018.

Waste Management: to give each employee a bonus of $2,000. January 13, 2018.

Fiat Chrysler: now we get this, just reported on CNBC -- will add a heavy truck manufacturing plant in Michigan; will move a Ram Heavy Duty truck manufacturing plant from Mexico to Michigan; $2,000 to every employee; will invest more than $1 billion in Michigan plant; will add 2,500 new jobs in Michigan -- all because of the Trump tax bill. NAFTA? Dead. January 11, 2018.

Walmart cites huge tax bill to increase hourly wages; one-time bonuses; better maternity/paternity leave. January 11, 2018

Toyota, Mazda to build $1.6 billion auto plant in Alabama. January 10, 2018.

US natural gas production to set all-time records. January 10, 2018.

Incredible jobs report: December 8, 2017. Many, many records set.

Great jobs report. November 2, 2017.

Japanese EV supplier, Denso Corp: Maryville, TN; $1 billion plant; create 1,000 jobs. October 6, 2017.

Amazon: looking for American site for "second" headquarters; will employ 50,000. Announced some weeks ago; posted September 28, 2017.

GDP: most recent estimate of 2Q17 GDP at 3.1, better than the 3.0 forecast. September 28, 2017.

Daimler: to invest $1 billion in its Tuscaloosa, AL, plant to build plug-in EVs to compete directly with Tesla's Model X. Will also build batteries. September 21, 2017.

Haribo, the Germany gummi candy manufacturer: says it will open a factory in Wisconsin down the road; August 8, 2017. Source: CNBC

Toyota, Mazda: joint venture announced; $1.6 billion; 4,000 employees; new US automotive assemble plant; by 2021; production, 300,000 vehicles annually; August 3, 2017

Apple, Foxconn will build in Wisconsin, 13,000 jobs initially. July 26, 2017.

LyondellBasel: largest petrochemical plant of its kind to be built near Houston; 2,500 construction jobs; $2.4 billion

Boom (link here):
Making America Great Again: Trump's first quarter (1Q17) -- boom --
  • mining: +22%
  • construction: +6%
  • manufacturing: +5%
  • finance, insurance: - 2%
At T+173, Trump has turned the economy around. Link here.

Trump's energy policy: truly, all of the above

Trump rally: consumer sentiment index hits 10-year record after Trump elected president; consumer sentiment index hit relative lows during Obama's presidency. Trump rally: the market has its best first half since 2013

Petrochemicals - plastics, staggering: story here. June 25, 2017.

BWM: announces huge investment ($600 million) in SUV plant in Spartanburg, SC; will add 1,000 more high-paying jobs.

Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia: historical in terms of deals being discussed

Saudi Arabia: will announce a $40 billion infrastructure investment in the US as early as this week; posted May 13, 2017.

Infosys: huge story. Indian company known for outsourcing lower cost engineers to US, now plans to open a 2,000-employee tech center in central Indiana, with another 8,000 jobs for American IT workers in other locations across the country in coming years.

VW: building a new SUV at its Chattanooga, TN, plant; also, at the same link, Dodge has just built the world's fastest street-legal production model muscle car.

Toyota: to invest $1.3 billion in Kentucky Camry plant. This should go a long way in helping a state hit hard by the war on coal. 

Samsung, LG Electronics: both to make huge investment expansions in US; directly related to Trump election.

ExxonMobil: from White House press release --  President Donald J. Trump today congratulated Exxon Mobil Corporation on its ambitious $20 billion investment program that is creating more than 45,000 construction and manufacturing jobs in the United States Gulf Coast region.

Play-Doh: after 16 years of being made outside the US, Hasbro announces that Play-Doh manufacturing will return to the US this year. February, 27, 2017.

Existing home sales: 10-year high

Accenture: Accenture announces plan to bring in 15,000 more US jobs. February 17, 2017. 

Boeing 787 Dreamliner, photo op: Trump to attend roll-out of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner later this week, February 14, 2017.

Bayou Bridge Pipeline, 4,000+ jobs; almost a billion dollars in new economic activity, South Louisiana, February 9, 2017.

Intel, to invest $7 billion in Arizona; employ 3,000. February 8, 2017. Intel CEO announced this from the Oval Office while meeting with President Trump. Chandler, AZ; over 10,000 people in the area will support the factory; investment over the next three to four years.

Williams, natural gas pipeline; $3 billion Atlantic Sunrise pipeline, Atlantic seaboard, approved after almost two years of delays. Approved exactly two weeks after Trump sworn in. February 4, 2017.

Lockheed: US orders 90 F-35. A single tweet from President Trump resulted in a $720 million savings on the program. Add significant number of jobs in Ft Worth, TX. February 2, 2017.

Amazon: to add 100,000 full-time jobs over next 18 months; reported on Fox Business News, February 3, 2017.

Lowe's to hire more than 45,000 seasonal workers (spring gardening). USA Today, February 2, 2017.

US Army has directed US Army Corps of Engineers to issue easement for DAPL. January 31, 2017.

Amazon.com to build its first air cargo hub. UPS is toast. January 31, 2017.

Infrastructure Priority List, top 50, nationwide, January 24, 2017.

Toyota, expands factory; adds 400 well-paying jobs at Indiana plant, CNBC, January 24, 2017.

Foxconn, $57 billion, 50,000 jobs, Pennsylvania, January 22, 2017.

Breitbart provides a list of the "Trump jobs." January 18, 2017.

Hyundai, January 17, 2017: to invest $3.1 billion in US

Wal-Mart, January 27, 2017: will create 10,000 jobs in nod to Trump; investment will support 24,000 construction jobs.

General Motors, announces $1 billion in new investment; could create 1,000 jobs; may be more.  Wall Street Journal.

Amazon, 100,000 jobs over next 18 months, January 12, 2017: The Washington Post

Toyota, Apple, January 9, 2017: both Apple and Toyota look to expand in US

Alibaba, January 9, 2017: to discuss with Donald Trump one million jobs in US over next five years.

US Navy: Trump will re-build US Navy to size it hasn't seen since Reagan administration.

FiatChrysler, January 8, 2017: will spend $1 billion modernizing, building in Michigan and Ohio; will add 2,000 new jobs

Stanley Black & Decker, January 5, 2017: makes it a point to note that the company will build a $35 million manufacturing plant in the United States in what appears to be an attempt to either a) keep PEOTUS Trump off its back; or, b) get a PEOTUS Trump endorsement. The announcement came after it was announced that Stanley B&D acquired the Craftsman "name" from Sears.

Construction spending hits 10-year high, in days after Trump elected.

Ford, January 3, 2017: cancels plans for $1.6 billion plant in Mexico; will expand in Michigan

Sprint, OneWeb, December 29, 2016: Trump says Sprint will bring 5,000 jobs back to US; OneWeb will create 3,000 jobs in US.

Tesla, Panasonic, NY. December 27, 2016. $256 million solar panel factory in New York.

Cao Dwang, Shanghai, to Ohio. December 22, 2016. $600-million investment; Chinese auto glass tycoon; cites high taxes and soaring labor costs at home; comes after Trump threatened to declare Beijing a currency manipulator and slap 45% punitive tariffs on Chinese imports to protect American jobs. 

Amazon, Michigan. December 20, 2016. To open distribution center in Livonia, MI, hire at least 1,000 new employees.

Amazon, Illinois. December 20, 2016. Amazon adding 1,000 jobs with two new Illinois fulfillment centers.

Nuclear, Illinois. December 17, 2016. Exelon Corp will hire more than 400 permanent employees to work on capital projects at two Illinois nuclear plants; after Illinois govern approved a plan to provide billions of dollars in subsidies to Exelon to keep the pair of unprofitable nuclear plants from closing prematurely. 

Mexican moves. December 14, 2016, Bloomberg reports that US companies are already "dampening" plans to move US jobs abroad. Not even sworn in yet, and Trump already having an impact. 

IBM: December 13, 2016, Daily Mail: 
  • will hire 25,000 over next few years
  • announced day before Trump meets with tech leaders
  • 6,000 of those new hires in 2017
Dow Chemical Michigan. December 10, 2016, via "Breaking News":
  • President-elect Trump says Dow Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris to head American Manufacturing Council, tasked with finding ways to bring industry and manufacturing 'back to America'
  • Dow Chemical will 'invest in a new state of the art manufacturing center in Michigan,' CEO Andrew Liveris announces; says decision due to President-elect Trump and his policies
Carrier, Indiana. November 29, 2016. Carrier will keep plant in Indiana. $7 million tax break / 10 years / 1,000 employees = $7000 / employee / year = $1.92 / employee / day. Starbucks: $2.11 for least expensive cup of black coffee. Even if the 1,000 employee-number is inflated, one has to appreciate the PEOTUS for getting involved. Previously posted.

Ford. November 18, will not move some production to Mexico; calls PEOTUS.

And, yes, the twitter hashtag is already there: #TrumpJobs. Mostly an anti-Trump site but that will change. 

Painfully Slow -- Exxon's Development In The Permian -- January 30, 2018


January 31, 2018: see update here

Original Post

It has been reported multiple places that ExxonMobil will increase daily production in the Permian significantly. 

Somehow, I wasn't paying attention -- not until I saw the Financial Times headline regarding this story:  Exxon plans fivefold rise in Permian Basin shale oil production.

It's being reported that Exxon will increase production to 500,000 bopd by 2025.  I assume "fivefold" means that currently Exxon is producing a paltry 100,000 bopd. Let's see: ... .... look ... look some more ... nope, no mention of how much Exxon is producing now, but fivefold suggests 100,000 bopd currently ....

How much did Exxon pay to get into the Permian? I don't know how much Exxon's entire holdings but from the linked article:
Exxon has been building up its position in the Permian Basin with a series of acquisitions, including a deal a year ago to buy drilling rights on 250,000 acres from the Bass family for up to $6.6bn. 
I'm not going to go through the numbers but it certainly seems that operators in the Bakken got to 500,000 bopd and then 1 million bopd a lot faster than seven years.

For a company like Exxon, going from 100,000 bopd to 500,000 bopd in seven years in a basin as good as the Permian seems painfully slow based on what I saw in the Bakken.

But readers know I am incredibly biased about the Bakken.

Idle chatter.

Having said that, this has to be incredibly bad news for Saudi Arabia. One company, Exxon in this case, will be producing almost half what the Bakken is producing. And that's just one operator.

Pennsylvania Apparently Loves The Production/Extraction/Tax Revenue

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania is taking steps to speed up the granting of oil and gas permits. The state of New York still bans fracking.

Pfizer: Making America Great Again

On the day/night that President Trump gives his first SOTU address, Pfizer announces that it will increase CAPEX manufacturing by $5 billion in the US, specifically citing the new tax law. The drugmaker will pay a tax of $15 billion on overseas profits over the next eight years. It's too bad we don't have a fair and balanced mainstream media to really talk about all these investments in a fair and balanced manner.

WTI Sinks Below $64; Rigs Hold Stead At 57; Five Producing Wells Reported As Completed -- January 30, 2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs573845146190

Three new permits:
  • Operators: Kraken (2); Bruin E&P
  • Fields: Winner (Williams); Pembroke (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 24549, 731, Petro-Hunt, Sabrosky 145-97-34D-27-1H, Little Knife, t12/17; cum -- 
  • 29440, 13 (no typo), Murex, Johan Stephen 13-24H, Temple, t6/17; cum --
  • 33404, 2,053, Whiting, Thomas 43-4H, Truax, t1/18; cum --  (#18770) (interesting array)
  • 33406, 2,502, Whiting, Thomas 43-4-2H, Truax, t1/18; cum --  (#18770) (interesting array)
  • 33679, 858, Zavanna, Hanson 28-33 4TFH, Stockyard Creek, t1/18; cum -- 
The Sweater Page

 From The New York Times, the Norwegian alpine ski team:

This Seems So Long Ago -- The Atlantic Monthly's Fascination With The Bakken -- From 2016

API: weekly US crude oil inventories. Link here. Also, at this site.
  • previous: 4.755 million bbls 
  • forecast: 1.5 million bbls
  • actual: 3.229 million bbls (almost twice forecast)
  • this is a "build"; but API data, at least recent history, has been significantly different than what the EIA will report -- tomorrow, 10:30 a.m. -- but a build of 3.2 million bbls suggests that the EIA data tomorrow could come in somewhere between a draw of 1 million bbls and a build of 1 million bbls; within that range, it will not change the number of weeks to re-balance which is currently at 20 weeks. I use the EIA data to calculate weeks until US crude oil stores have "balanced"
  • analysis six hours before the API data was released; this suggests me to the stronger dollar is not being offset by increased demand/less supply hopes
Flashback: Williston, ND -- August 8, 2016

I can't recall if I linked this article from The Atlantic Monthly. Regardless, it's fun to read (for the first time) and re-read a second time to see how an East Coast magazine saw Williston back in 2016.

I will leave it to current Williston residents to compare what was written then to how things are going now. All I know is the reference to Walmart. It was reported a few days ago that two Walmart stores in North Dakota will undergo renovation. One of them is the Walmart in Williston. (The other one: Wahpeton, in southeastern North Dakota -- about as far away from the Bakken as one can get and still be in the state. It's about 30 minutes west of Fergus Falls, Minnesota, which also has a Walmart, probably the only other Walmart in the immediate area.)

I doubt Walmart, known for its "tight" spending, would be likely to re-model one of its stores if it thought the local economy was dying.

From the linked article, this will keep the riff-raff out:

The writer mentions one other boom town that succeeded: Denver, CO.

The writer failed to mention, perhaps, the greatest boom town ever that owes its success to oil: Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

The Market And Energy Page, T+9 -- January 30, 2018

Market. I am thrilled to see the market "down" today. I was starting to get concerned that folks were blindly moving the market up. Hopefully we are back to a period of volatility. It reassures me that folks are paying attention. It also provides buying opportunities. Also, I've never complained about buying inexpensive shares with automatic reinvested dividends.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship-related decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

A political note: this is the first time in eight years that we will hear a non-Democratic president deliver a SOTU address. In addition, it's been decades since a Reagan-SOTU address. My hunch is that this will be one of most-watched presidential addresses in history. Could be wrong; there will be a lot of effort to encourage folks to not watch the address. Me? I have no plans to watch the address. I quit watching the SOTU address sometime during the Bush-Obama era.

Market-SOTU: the timing for the market dropping could not come at a better time for Trump. If the market recovers tomorrow, it's going to be hard not to connect the market recovery to Trump.

ExxonMobil: from SeekingAlpha:
  • Exxon Mobil says it plans to triple total daily production to more than 600K boe by 2025 from its operations in the Permian Basin in west Texas and New Mexico, as it attempts to fill in some details from yesterday's pledge to invest $50B in the U.S. over the next five years [to put that 600K boepd in perspective, North Dakota is producing 1.5 million boepd
  • XOM - which says it has doubled its footage drilled per day on horizontal wells in the Permian Basin since early 2014 and reduced per-foot drilling costs by ~70% - expects to increase the horizontal rig count in the Permian by a further 65% over the next several years
  • XOM says it plans to invest $2B to expand the recently acquired Wink crude oil terminal and add key infrastructure upgrades that will efficiently move production from the Delaware, Central and Midland basins in the Permian to its operations and other market destinations in the Gulf Coast region
ExxonMobil: huge bonuses reported by glassdoor.

Notes To The Granddaughters

I always get a kick out of the kids at Tutor Time and their Spanish lessons once or twice a week. These students are in the 3-year-old room and don't move up until they've had their fourth birthday. Sophia, on the ride into Tutor Time this morning, said she was looking forward to her birthday. It's still more than five months away.

Random Update Of An XTO Kaye Federal Well In Lost Bridge -- January 30, 2018

Back on August 28, 2017, this memo to self: check #19960, #18189 at end of 2017.
  • 31199, 1,838, XTO, Kaye Federal 13X-3H, Lost Bridge, t5/61 (sic, probably 6/17); cum 56K 9/17; (#19960, #18189)
Checking #18189: still off-line.

However, look at this:
  • 19960, 1,666, XTO, Kaye 43X-4, API 33-025-01222; Lost Bridge, t12/11; cum 502K 11/17; placed on rod pump in late 2016; but no FracFocus data suggesting a re-frack and nothing in the NDIC file report suggesting a re-frack.
Recent production data (note flaring, and water):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Random Update Of An EOG Clarks Creek Well -- January 30, 2018

This page will not be updated. The EOG Clarks Creek wells are tracked elsewhere. A graphic of this area is at this post.

The well:
  • 20602, 670, EOG, Clarks Creek 15-0805H, Antelope, Sanish pool, t7/12; cum 480K 11/17;
Recent production. There is no evidence at FracFocus or in the NDIC file report that this well has been re-fracked. Note the jump in production in August, 2017.

Recent monthly production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Random Update Of Another High-Intensity CLR Frack -- January 30, 2018


January 31, 2018: see first comment --
These Hereford wells are certainly interesting... after looking this well up in the well files category in premium however, It looks like this well starts in sec. 20... It goes horizontally almost a half mile in section 20, the goes up through sections 17, 8, and ends up on the north end of section 5... so 3 full miles plus almost 1/2 mile in section 20, so a very long horizontal.
Still impressive, but makes more sense when you divide the stages, sand, etc. by the longer length. It has to do with Access point (section 20) and Lake Sakakewea (just north of section 20) so an unusual setup because of the lake.
Original Post

 This production data at this page will not be updated. The well:
  • 32355, 1,217, CLR, Hereford Federal 6-20H1, Elm Tree, Three Forks 1, 61 stages; 15.5 million lbs, mesh, large, small; t8/17; cum 111K 11/17;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The CLR Hereford Federal wells are tracked here.

Quote for the day:
What, then, is the character that actually marks the American -- that is, in chief? ... It is, in brief ... social aspiration ... The American is a pusher. His eyes are ever fixed upon some round of the ladder that is just beyond his reach, and all his secret ambition, all his extraordinary energies, group themselves about the yearning to grasp it. -- H. L. Mencken, 1920, from The Man Who Made The Movies: The Meteoric Rise and Tragic Fall of William Fox, Vanda Krefft, c. 2017, p. 224.

Chinese Company To "Build" Solar Panels In The US -- January 30, 2018

MAGA: one week after President Trump announces tariffs on solar panels, a Chinese company says it will build a manufacturing plant in the United States, bringing back jobs to America. 
The company tucked news of its U.S. manufacturing plans into an announcement about an agreement to supply an unnamed U.S. customer with 1.75 gigawatts of solar panels over about three years.
Comment: regarding the solar panel story, one individual commented:
More evidence of the near Pavlovian response the very mention of President Trump provokes across the aisle. Some of his supporters appear to see this news as evidence of his tariff policy working, though common sense would suggest that such a huge investment could not possibly be cleared within a week. The project has been on the anvil for some time as the link below shows.
Likewise, his critics seem to blithely ignore the obvious inference that setting up of a manufacturing plant like this indicates rising investor confidence in the American economy and manufacturing. I am not an enthusiastic supporter of Chinese companies but to a considerable extent, this is a positive for America.
Davos? Amazon, Berkshire, JPM partner on healthcare for less expensive employee healthcare. Shares of US healthcare companies -- from insurance to prescription drugs -- dropping this morning, helping lead a sell-off in the stock market. The other big of news: the bond market. And the stronger dollar leading to drop in the price of oil.

Reset: Shares of US healthcare companies -- from insurance to prescription drugs -- dropping this morning, helping lead a sell-off in the stock market. The other big of news: the bond market. And the stronger dollar leading to drop in the price of oil. But I repeat myself.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship-related decision(s) based on what you read here or think you may have read here or what your best friend says she read here.

Iraq rising: in the news today --
Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs573845146190

RBN Energy: Canadian producers' battle for US gas markets.
Canadian natural gas production has rebounded to the highest level in 10 years. At the same time, Canadian producers are facing tremendous headwinds. On the upside, regional gas demand from the Alberta oil sands is increasing too. But competition for market share in the U.S.  — which currently takes about one-third of Canadian gas production —  is ever-intensifying as U.S. shale gas production is itself at record highs and expected to continue growing.
On the whole, net gas flows to the U.S. from Canada thus far have remained relatively steady in recent years, apart from fluctuations due to weather-driven demand. But the breakdown of those flows by U.S. region has shifted dramatically and will continue to evolve as Appalachia takeaway capacity additions allow Marcellus/Utica shale gas production to further expand market share in the Northeast and other U.S. regions.
Today, we begin a series looking at what’s happening with gas flows across the U.S.-Canadian border and factors that will influence Canada’s share of the U.S. gas market over the next several years.