Wednesday, January 31, 2018 -- Anticipating EIA Data Today

Trump speaks, market soars.

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Apple: Apple likely to post a record-setting $84 billion in quarterly revenue for Q4 2017. 

Amid reports that Apple is planning to drastically scale back iPhone X production next quarter, the company later this week may very well post its most impressive earnings report in history. We’ll get a handle on specific figures at the close of trading on Thursday, but in the interim, the consensus on Wall St. is that Apple will post revenue of about $87 billion and EPS in the $3.83 range. 

If Apple should come anywhere close to meeting those figures — and there’s no reason to believe it won’t — it will easily mark the most successful quarter in company history. By way of comparison, Apple during the same quarter a year-ago posted $78.4 billion in quarterly revenue and overall earnings of $3.36. Incidentally, the $78.4 billion figure still stands as Apple’s most successful quarter to date. And with Apple last quarter providing revenue guidance in the $84 billion to $87 billion range, it’s a safe bet that Apple during the most recent holiday quarter shattered a number of records.

As a quick point of interest, the most bullish Apple analysts are projecting revenue of $90.2 billion while bearish analysts are anticipating revenue to hover around the $84 billion mark. And as far as overall earnings are concerned, the highest estimate we’ve seen is $4.12 per share while the lowest estimate is $3.41 per share.

Anticipating EIA data later today: posted here.

• US crude oil inventories: increased by 6.8 million bbls

API data, posted yesterday: weekly US crude oil inventories. Link here. Also, at this site.

• previous: 4.755 million bbls 
• forecast: 1.5 million bbls
• actual: 3.229 million bbls (almost twice forecast)
• this is a "build"; but API data, at least recent history, has been significantly different than what the EIA will report -- today, 10:30 a.m. -- but a build of 3.2 million bbls suggests that the EIA data tomorrow could come in somewhere between a draw of 1 million bbls and a build of 1 million bbls; within that range, it will not change the number of weeks to re-balance which is currently at 20 weeks. I use the EIA data to calculate weeks until US crude oil stores have "balanced"
• analysis six hours before the API data was released; this suggests me to the stronger dollar is not being offset by increased demand/less supply hopes

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$64.16	1/31/2018	01/31/2017	01/31/2016	01/31/2015	01/31/2014
Active Rigs	57	40	45	146	191

RBN Energy: rising Canadian production, takeaway constraints and WCS price discounts, part 2.

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Accuracy In Reporting

So, what is it? A five-fold increase or production to triple? Reported yesterday at this post, that Exxon's production would increase 5-fold in the Permian by 2025. Later, the story changed to this: Exxon production in the Permian would triple by 2025. It seems to me there's a pretty good difference between "five-fold" and "triple."