Sunday, May 31, 2020

Notes From All Over -- Sunday Late Night Edition -- May 31, 2020

Parr Park, Grapevine, TX -- Parr Park Rocks!

I'll replace this with a better video later, but for now this will have to do.

Parr Park Rocks


Incredible race. Brad Keselowski "steals" another one. But well deserved. Chase Elliott / Joey Logano tangle with three to go -- Brad saw it coming. Took advantage. Incredible race. But Jeff Gordon, up in the booth. Wow, he's good. He may be the best sports commentator out there right now. I'm not a Keselowski fan but I'm warming up to him after races like this. Bristol, Tennessee.

Movie Night

Notorious, Alfred Hitchcock. Three times in 48 hours. The movie itself, then the movie with commentary, and then the movie again, this time with a second commentary. Yeah, it's that good. Tonight, Grand Budapest Hotel. Interesting back story.


Preparing the chicken for the grill. Video by Sophia. I normally don't use a "stand" for beer can chicken -- I prefer to set up the chicken without the stand but tonight just wanted to keep it simple. I had too many things to do.  


Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves tumble 5% month over month; down almost 40% from a year ago. Enough "cash in the bank" to pay for 43 months of imports. Link here.


Telstar, The Tornados

Update Of MRO's Crow Flies High, Rock Woman, And Papa George In Antelope -- May 31, 2020

This well is off line, trending toward 600K:
There are two wells on DRL status on that 3-well pad; both have flared some natural gas; one has produced a bit of crude oil:
  • 36859, drl/drl, MRO, Rock Woman USA 41-4TFH, Antelope-Sanish; t--; cum --;
  • 36860, drl/drl, MRO, Papa George USA 41-4H, Antelope-Sanish; t--; cum --;

This Petroshale Well Is Back On Line; Trending Toward 600K -- May 31, 2020

The well:
  • 18579, 2,006, Petroshale/Oasis/SM, Jorgenson 1-30H, Bear Den, Bakken, t12/10; 120K by 6/11; cum 580K 3/20; 
The Jorgenson wells in Bear Den are tracked here

Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
Earlier production:

The BR Merton / Jerome Wells Have Been Updated -- Monster Wells -- May 31, 2020

These wells are monster wells; they have been updated. Tracked here.

Notes From All Over -- Early Sunday Afternoon Edition -- May 31, 2020

NASCAR: 2:30 p.m. today -- Bristol Motor Speedway; Tennessee; short-track racing, 15-second lap. Keselowski in the pole position. FWIW. First short-track race in 2020.

Random Update Of Wuhan Flu Statistics -- May 31, 2020

As states start to open up, the number of cases are increasing, as expected, but one must also remember that increased testing is also occurring.

The other thing to note is the percentage of total cases (positive tests) vs total number of tests completed. In some of the states hardest hit, the percentage ranges from 15% to 21%. In the states less badly hit, the percentage of positive tests to total number of tests is only 10%.

With a positive rate of only 10% in most states, and a positive rate of around 20% in the harder hit states, it certainly suggests surveillance targeting is either being poorly done, or this virus is not very infectious / contagious.

For example, and of course, this is not accurate, but for illustrative purposes: if one tests 100 folks because they have been exposed and only 10% of those people turn out positive, that suggests the virus is not particularly infectious. We saw that, by the way, on the Diamond Princess. A very small percentage of folks actually tested positive on this closed vessel.

One has to assume tests are being done on certain folks for a reason: I assume the #1 reason for testing is a person is being evaluated for cough and fever by one's physician; the #2 reason for testing is history of exposure. So, if the folks most likely to test positive are coming back at 20% in the hard-hit states and around 10% in the less hard-hit states, it certainly suggests that this virus is not very infectious, and a lot of folks presumed to have Wuhan flu based on symptoms, in fact, do not test positive.

For all the criticism the governor of Michigan is getting, Michigan does not show up on the first screenshot below, ranked by number of new cases. Michigan does show up on the second list, ranked by number of new deaths, suggesting the Michigan governor is correct in her decision to be overly cautious.

  • total tests: 538,812
  • number of positive tests: 56,884
  • percent of positive test / total tests: 10.6%
Already the CDC has confirmed a remarkably low rate of deaths due to Wuhan flu, link here
It now appears that the virus is not particularly infectious based on percent of positive tests vs number of tests performed.

So, now we have:
  • a virus that is not particularly infectious (this was suggested months ago, by the way), relative to smallpox, chickenpox, measles, and, the virus that causes the Trump Derangement Syndrome (which, by the way, that virus has still not been identified);
  • a virus that is not particularly deadly (CDC confirms, see link above);
  • a virus that pretty much hits those already with significant medical problems, and/or the elderly;
  • a virus, that compared to "seasonal flu," for which we have a vaccine, albeit very ineffective, that spares children and young adults;
Unintended consequences:
  • powder kegs across the nation with lock down; surging unemployment; no hope;
  • routine vaccination of infants and children plummeting; folks afraid to keep well baby appointments or afraid of vaccinations themselves (previously reported)
Ranked by number of new cases. Note that number of new cases are surging in California. New York is looking good (#4 on the list) only because California, Illinois, and Texas are now reporting a surge in cases, as more testing becomes available and the states "re-open." The most interesting state, of course, to watch will be Minnesota two to three weeks from now when their two largest cities, Minneapolis and St Paul lost complete control of the situation.

Ranked by number of new deaths. Based on "new case data" in the spreadsheet above, states like California, Illinois, and Texas should move higher in the next two or three weeks.

Geologic Time

Some of this was previously posted. It originated with an essay in Power Line some months ago. See this link.

A huge part of evolution is knowing all the ages, epochs, periods, eras, eons, and supereons.

We're currently in the Holocene epoch, which has just begun, relatively speaking.

To date there have been three named ages of the Holocene epoch, most recent to oldest: Meghalayan; Northgrippian; and, Greenlandian, although it's my understanding these are "placeholders" for now and yet to be etched in stone.

By the way, "holocene" from the Greek: holo: whole, all; kainos: new. Looking at kainos it appears holocene should be pronounced with a hard "c," or holokene. "C" is a tough letter when it comes to pronunciation: a hard "c"; a soft "c"; and then there's the "j" sound for "c" in such words as Incirlik.

Now, some say we have entered the fourth age. This is quite incredible. This might be one of the longest single blog posts (at the link below) I have ever seen. It is incredible. I hope it never disappears behind a paywall or lost entirely some other way. Link here.

It's a keeper.

The fourth age of the Holocene epoch, the Age of Shibboliths.
Shibbolithic /ʃɪbəlˈiθik/ n.
: the current geological age, regarded as the first of the Anthropocene epoch and distinguished by the hegemony of unconvincing impostors in the scholarly and scientific academies.
St Greta of Thurnberg is probably the best example.
Source: ‘Shibbolithic.’ Merriam-Webster, n.d. Web. 1 Apr. 2020.
My reading phase: re-reading Keld Zeruneith's The Wooden Horse, The Liberation of the Western Mind, From Odysseus to Socrates, c. 2007.  Previous posts:
In addition, I have three journals filled with notes on this book but too much material to transcribe.

WPX Lion Wells In Mandaree Oil Field Updated -- May 31, 2020

The WPX Lion wells in Mandaree oil field have been updated at this post. These were drilled a year ago and are monster wells.

Almost 300K Crude Oil In Less Than Nine Months -- May 31, 2020

The well:
  • 34398, 3,347, WPX, Lion 18-19HX, Three Forks, 33 stages; 8.3 million lbs; Mandaree, t7/19; cum 284K 3/20;
Full production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
From the file report:
  • 100% of the lateral was drilled within the Three Forks formation; 9,897.39 feet (0.39 feet = 4.68 inches)
  • TD, vertical section: 10,948.73 feet
  • Three Forks encountered at true vertical depth of 11,012'
  • first bench Target B, unit 6 facies Y of the Three Forks formation

Example Of What The Bakken Will Look Like Going Forward -- May 31, 2020

Bakken wells will produce for 35 years. During that time they will be affected by neighboring wells; workovers; mini-re-fracks; major re-frack; etc.

This is an example of a very mediocre well drilled back in 2011. Since then the production has declined, then increased, then decline, then increased. See full production at this post.

The well:

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- May 31, 2020

The wells:
  • 36238, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 1SLH, Big Bend, 
  • 35188, conf, XTO, Hoffmann 21X-6BXC, Siverston,
  • 31791, conf, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-3H, Charlson,
  • 36468, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 3-10-11-12H, Big Bend,
  • 36237, conf, Slawson, Neptang 3-15-22H, Big Bend,
  • 36473, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 9-10-7TFH, Big Bend,
  • 36454, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1A, Sand Creek,
  • 36362, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal l1-12-1H, 
  • 35748, conf, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 2TFH, Poe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 31790, conf, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-2H, Charlson,
  • 36455, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1B, Clear Creek,
  • 36360, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 10-12-1TFH, Sand Creek,
  • 36470, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 8-10-11-12H, Big Bend,
  • 36457, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1D, Clear Creek,
  • 36456, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1C, Clear Creek,
  • 36354, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 8-12-1TFH, Sand Creek,
  • 36240, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 4 SLH, Big Bend,
  • 35189, conf, XTO, Hoffmann Federal 21X-6H, Siverston,
  • 36754, conf, Kraken Candace 15-22 1TFH, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 36458, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1E, Clear Creek,
  • 35190, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6AXD, Siverston,
  • 36757, conf, Kraken Arrow A 15-22 4TFH, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 36756, conf, Kraken Ethan 15-22 3TFH, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 36755, conf, Kraken, Penny 15-22 2TFH, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 36469, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 5-10-7TFH, Big Bend,
  • 36130, conf, Whiting, Harvey TTT 41-4HU, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 35191, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6E, Siverston,
  • 37047, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 10-16H, Elm Tree,
  • 36157, conf, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-12H, Eigthmile,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 35192, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6B, Siverston,
  • 33838, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 9-8-5-157N-99W, Lone Tree Lake,
  • 36471, drl/NC, Slawson, Periscope Federal 2-10-11-12H, Big Bend,
  • 33839, drl/drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 4-8-5-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- May 31, 2020

Monday, June 8, 2020: 31 for the month; 176 for the quarter, 403 for the year:
36238, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 1SLH, 
35188, conf, XTO, Hoffmann 21X-6BXC, 
31791, conf, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-3H, 

Sunday, June 7, 2020: 28 for the month; 173 for the quarter, 400 for the year:
36468, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 3-10-11-12H, 
36237, conf, Slawson, Neptang 3-15-22H, 

Saturday, June 6, 2020: 26 for the month; 171 for the quarter, 398 for the year:
36473, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 9-10-7TFH,
36454, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1A, 
36362, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal l1-12-1H, 
35748, conf, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 2TFH,  
31790, conf, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-2H, 

Friday, June 5, 2020: 21 for the month; 166 for the quarter, 393 for the year:
36455, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1B, 
36360, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 10-12-1TFH

Thursday, June 4, 2020: 19 for the month; 164 for the quarter, 391 for the year:
36470, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 8-10-11-12H, 
36457, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1D, 
36456, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1C, 
36354, conf, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 8-12-1TFH
36240, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 4 SLH,
35189, conf, XTO, Hoffmann Federal 21X-6H, 

Wednesday, June 3, 2020: 13 for the month; 158 for the quarter, 385 for the year:
36754, conf, Kraken Candace 15-22 1TFH
36458, conf, BR, Glacierfill 1E, 
35190, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6AXD, 

Tuesday, June 2, 2020: 10 for the month; 155 for the quarter, 382 for the year:
36757, conf, Kraken Arrow A 15-22 4TFH
36756, conf, Kraken Ethan 15-22 3TFH
36755, conf, Kraken, Penny 15-22 2TFH
36469, conf, Slawson, Periscope Federal 5-10-7TFH
36130, conf, Whiting, Harvey TTT 41-4HU, 
35191, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6E, 

Monday, June 1, 2020: 4 for the month; 149 for the quarter, 376 for the year:
37047, conf, CLR, Simmental Federal 10-16H, 
36157, conf, Nine Point Energy, S Missouri 152-103-9-11-12H,
35192, conf, XTO, Zane Federal 21X-6B, 
33838, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 9-8-5-157N-99W,

Sunday, May 31, 2020: 95 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 372 for the year:
None. There was no November 31.

Saturday, May 30, 2020: 95 for the month; 145 for the quarter, 372 for the year:
36471, drl/NC, Slawson, Periscope Federal 2-10-11-12H, Big Bend,
33839, drl/drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 4-8-5-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake,

Saturday, May 30, 2020

Apple Doubles The Price Of RAM Upgrade On Entry-Level 13-Inch MacBook Pro After Only Month Since Introduction -- May 30, 2020

Earlier I posted a number of Apple, Inc., (AAPL) items. The overall flavor of those items? A "feel-good" feeling. But after posting that, I came across this item: Apple doubles the price of RAM upgrade on entry-level 13-inch MacBook Pro. This was abrupt, unexpected, and not met with kindness on social media.

This is a biggie.

This looks like a huge change in thinking at Apple. The new 13-inch MacBook Pro was launched just one month ago. What changed? I can only imagine some contentious discussions in the board room on this new price point.

There can only be three reasons for this increase in price:
  • first, there truly is a shortage of RAM, driving up the price
    • if so, the wholesale price of RAM is trivial, well less than the upgrade price Apple is charging, and Apple is taking advantage of this;
    • if so, the wholesale price of RAM is significant, necessitating the increase in the new retail price by Apple
  • second, there is a demand/supply problem for the MacBook Pro and to either temper demand, or take advantage of the demand, Apple raises the price;
  • third, pure profit motive for many reasons. 
Arguments against:
  • reason #1: it's hard to believe Apple missed that just one month earlier;
  • reason #2: Apple has never been accused of being worried about unit shortages; in fact, Apple is often accused of generating artificial shortage;
Which leaves, the third reason: pure profit.

A little background:
  • the entry level of memory (RAM) is 8 GB
  • the upgrade is 16 GB of memory (RAM)
  • a month after the MacBook Pro was released Apple doubled the upgrade price of 8 GB to 16GB 
  • the "doubling," takes the price from an additional $100 to an additional $200 if one chooses to upgrade
Comments, on pricing:
  • if $100 was "not trivial" for the basic MacBook Pro, $200 for the upgrade is definitely "not trivial."
  • it takes the base model from $1299 to $1499; and the $1499 model to $1699.
Comments, on choice:
  • it's my impression that 90% of folks whose choice is between the MacBook Air and the MacBook Pro, the Air is more than adequate
  • for this 90% of users, the price increase noted today is not an issue
  • only the very "high end" users need a MacBook Pro rather than the Air
  • "high end" users will not settle for entry-level-8-GB RAM
  • "high end" users, able to afford the MacBook Pro, can easily afford the "upgrade" price (although they might be a bit miffed)
Apple's cachet:
  • long-term Apple customers know they are paying "up" for the Apple cachet, 
  • many folks suggest Apple is not particularly concerned about charges of "price gouging" or their "luxury tax"
Bottom line:
When I put everything together, I lean toward those who feel Apple raised the price almost purely for reasons of profit. The fact that the price was changed so quickly after introduction of the model -- again, one month -- suggests it has to do with the global economy more than an increase in the wholesale price of storage.
Back to choice:
  • my MacBook Air has 4 GB of memory and 128 GB of storage. The 4 GB of memory seems "adequate," but the base model MacBook Air has 8 GB which is good news
  • without question, the 128 GB of storage I have is not nearly enough and I'm not a heavy user of storage. The good news? The entry level MacBook Air comes with 256 GB of storage. One can double the storage to 512 GB for an additional $200
I apologize for the meandering of this post. I'm listening to the commentary while watching Alfred Hitchcock's Notorious.

Bottom, bottom line:
  • 90% of Apple laptop users don't need the MacBook Pro; the MacBook Air is more than enough;
  • the MacBook Air comes in only one size, 13-inch, which eliminates the size-dimension problem;
  • entry level 8 GB is adequate; although I could be easily convinced otherwise;
  • entry level of 256 GB is more than adequate;
  • having said that, whether to upgrade either memory (8 GB) or storage (256 GB) is a toss-up; both upgrades cost $200;
  • for me, I would upgrade the memory, from 8 GB to 16 GB; one can easily buy external storage, including the "cloud"
  • others may prefer upgrading the storage, from 256 GB to 512 GB for the same amount;
  • upgrading both for $400 significantly increases the price of this entry level Air which is $999;
  • high school senior heading off to college on limited budget: the entry-level MacBook Air; no upgrades needed; and definitely not the MacBook Pro unless one has much experience with the MacBook Air and knows their own needs;
By the way, I don't know if there were any other price increases, but if the price increase only involves the MacBook Pro, to some extent the whole argument is moot (this whole post was unnecessary): Apple was simply aligning the price for memory upgrade across all models.

Jump In Production; Two MRO Wells In Reunion Bay -- May 30, 2020

The wells:
  • 20050, 1,226, MRO, Red Feather USA 31-17H, Reunion Bay, F, t12/11; cum 387K 3/20; drilled back in 2011 -- almost a decade ago; flowing; no pump;
  • 20051, 1,169, MRO, Red Feather USA 21-17H, Reunion Bay, F, t12/11; cum 382K 3/20; drilled back in 2011 -- almost a decade ago; flowing; no pump;
Production periods of interest:
  • 20051:
  • 20050:

A CLR Cedar Coulee Carus Well Goes Over 500K In Style -- May 30, 2020

The well:
  • 16648, 508, CLR, Carus 13-28H, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96; Bakken pool, t8/07; cum 548K 3/20;
The well is followed at this post. It has a very interesting history. Previously posted:
16648, conf, CLR, Carus 13-28H, Cedar Coulee on the scout ticket; has been in production since 2007; not sure why it is on the confidential list; a stripper well as of June 17, 2016; an extended reach single lateral; middle Bakken; drilling target: approximately 27 feet thick, about 9' below the base of the upper Bakken shale; 100% within the drilling zone; spud June 10, 2007; KOP: June 22, 2007; cease drilling/TVD, 11,386.65 feet, July 15, 2007; average background gas -- very, very low, almost nil in much of the lateral; open hole completion, 1 million lbs sand; IP of 508; permit for BR (#16648, Carus 24-28H, Oakdale field, Dunn County; Change of Operator from BR to CLR, February 5, 2008; at that time #16648 still Carus 24-28H. The NDIC map does not show any Carus 24-28H; it appears the scout ticket is wrong --

Random Update Of A Madison Well In Portal Oil Field -- May 30, 2020

The well:
  • 33937, 102, Petro Harvester Operating, PTL2 4-16 163-92D, Portal oil field, target: Madison pool; t3/19; cum 56K 3/20; 
From the well file:
  • 14 stages;
  • 14.2 million lbs
  • horizontal; TD=15,244 feet
  • 30'-target
  • spud: October 13, 2018
  • TD: November 3, 2018
Production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

A 50-Fold Jump In Production In A Charlson Oil Field Well -- May 30, 2020

Neighboring wells recently fracked:
  • 13,039 bbls over 18 days extrapolates to 21,732 bbls
  • 20,000 bbls / 400 bbls = a 40-fold jump in production
The well:
  • 16711, 297, Petro-Hunt, USA 1D-4-1H, 640-acre spacing; Charlson, t6/08; cum 133K 3/20;
Production period of interest:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare