Saturday, November 20, 2021

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- Remind Me Again, Hubbert's Theory -- Saturday, November 20, 2021

Updates

November 21, 2021: back in 2010, shortly after this well was completed, more than a decade ago (this really gets tedious):

BAKKEN9-201030354335311391718771870

 Original Post

I was ready to call it a night, but took one last look at the NDIC map even though it's not being updated. I was looking for anything ... anything ... that might catch my eye. I saw an old isolated well -- I was simply curious --- what was this singleton doing with no neighboring well, and this is what I found, recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20213040974269282594298983296
BAKKEN8-20211920662374145042253909238
BAKKEN7-2021314101381630108147789996
BAKKEN6-20213048425166353059575021646
BAKKEN5-20212433222628367056835021432
BAKKEN4-202123267526174705636424793695
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-20216347228802772170
BAKKEN12-202031543475420156012500
BAKKEN11-202030534458302164013382
BAKKEN10-202031574711322181615024
BAKKEN9-20203059247647018141296218
BAKKEN8-20203156470733016161069277
BAKKEN7-2020315714714831557749498
BAKKEN6-202030573710290113482410
BAKKEN5-202031506476410143811208
BAKKEN4-202030566488540159412913
BAKKEN3-202031593703200149211820

 The well:

  • 18580, 530, Oasis, Nelson 4-29H, Dimmick Lake, t5/10; cum 166K 9/21;

The last sundry form is dated from 2017; there is nothing to explain why the 10-fold jump in production.

Grayson Mill (Equinor) Looking To Drill Twenty Wells Out In The Middle Of Nowhere -- November 20, 2021

 From the December, 2021, NDIC hearing dockets, this is a case, not a permit:

  • Case 29115, Grayson Mill (Equinor), Briar Creek-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping 2200-acre unit 19/20/21/22-152-104; ii) establish an overlapping 2200-acre unt, 27/28/29/30-152-104; iii) establish an overlapping 2200-acre unit, 31/32/33/34-152-104; and, iv) establish an overlapping 2200-acre unit, 3/4/5/6-151-104, five wells on each; Williams, McKenzie counties.

Briar Creek is out in the middle of nowhere, certainly not something I would consider Tier 1. It will be interesting to see how Grayson Mill does. Interestingly, if these turn out to be decent wells, it opens up a whole new area with a potential for a lot of drilling locations, though I doubt anyone expects that at this point. But, of course, it depends on the price of oil.

The graphic:

Ragnar Targeting The Madison WIth No Less Than Twenty-Three Horizontal Wells -- November 20, 2021

Updates

November 21, 2021: a reader found this at the ND Sec of State Business Search:

  • RA
  • incorporated in Delaware
  • initial filing: September 29, 2021 
  • principal (sic) address:
  • 10390 39th St N Suite 4
  • Lake Elmo, MN 55042

See first comment for another link but that's about all we've got. So far. 

Original Post

 From the December, 2021, NDIC hearing dockets, these are cases, not permits:

  • Case 29116, Ragnar Exploration LLC, Fryburg-Madison, establish five 320-acre units, S/2 section 21 and all of sections 20 and 22 - 139-100; one horizontal well one each unit; Billings County;
  • Case 29117, Ragnar Exploration LLC, Norwegian Creek-Madison, establish fourteen 320-acre units, sections 23/26/35-139-100; and section 2/3/10/11-138-100; one horizontal well on each 320-acre unit, Billings County;
  • Case 29118, Ragnar Exploration LLC, Rocky Hill-Madison, Billings County, establish four 320-acre units; sections 1/12-138-100; Billings County;

Unless someone has data to tell me differently, this is a new company operating  in North Dakota and you read that first on the milliondollarway blog; this has not been reported in any similar blog until now. What a great blog. LOL. Since this company is targeting the Madison and not the Bakken, it will not be added to the list of "Operators" at this blog.

An exception to the "Bakken rule," Ragnar Exploration will be added to the long list of "Bakken Operators."

Ragnar Exploration:

  • I cannot find a website for this LLC, although I may have missed it;
  • Ragnar Technologies seems to be related;
  • a strong (and fairly common) Scandinavian name (wiki)

For newbies:

  • Billings County is not considered a core Bakken county
  • it is rare to see horizontal drilling in the Madison
  • this is a lot of drilling units in one case (fourteen drilling units in case 29117, for example)
  • the target formation is not the Bakken; the target formation is the Madison
  • these are going to be extremely short laterals; in the old days they would have been called directional wells
  • we do not know if fracking will be required

There are several dry wells in the immediate area, but only one producing well, also a short lateral, drilled back in 2007 and it took 38 days from spud to total depth. These days, this well would be drilled to depth in less than a week: the gold standard would be one day for the vertical; a half day for the curve; a full day for the lateral. Come in to work el lunes y salir el viernes.

There is no evidence that this one producing well in the immediate area was fracked.

The well

  • 16450, 227, Medora Minerals, LLC; Davis Creek 1-27H, Norwegian Creek, t4/07; cum 121K 9/21; 

The graphic:

Breaking: Costo Has Not Run Out Of Rotisserie Chickens! November 20, 2021

I can't remember if someone sent me un correo electronico or if I saw it on twitter, but I was alerted to the factoid that someone's local Costco had run out of rotisserie chicken, something the writer had not seen IN DECADES! In decades.

Coincidentally, our daughter was headed to Costco this afternoon and she asked if I needed anything. I did not (need anything) but asked her to update me regarding Costco chickens.

This was her reply. Note the price: still $4.99. And not sold out.

MRO Seeks Sixteen Wells On A Standup 2560-Acre Drillling Unit -- November 20, 2021

From the December, 2021, hearing dockets, link here. 

This is a case, not a permit:

  • Case 29102, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, 16 wells on a stand-up unit, 6/7/18/19-146-94; Dunn County

Other wells in the two drilling units comprising this stand-up 2560-acre unit:

  • 16807, 305, MRO, George Tuhy 11-18H, Bailey, t2/08; cum 184K 9/21;
  • 17537, 503, MRO, David Beck USA 24-7H, Bailey, t12/08; cum 391K 9/21;
  • 16666, 502, MRO, Bob Tuhy 44-19H, Bailey, t11/08; cum 488K 9/21;
  • 16802, PNC, PDC Corporation, Beck 34-7H,

Graphics:


NDIC Hearing Dockets, December, 2021

Usual disclaimer applies: I do this quickly for my benefit. I do not expect readers to read this summary. There will be content and typographic errors. I used shorthand that may be confusing.  For all I know the links may not even be correct. I haven't checked them in quite awhile. In a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here

Wednesday, December 15, 2021
Supplement

This was added November 30, 2021. Again, this is a case, not a permit:

  • 28550: NDIC, Targa Badlands LLC's motion for protective order as it relates to the application of Enerplus Resources.

Note the number of this case. It turns out that case #28550 had not been previously posted. Back on August 27, 2020, the last case was #28549, and on September 16, 2020, the next hearing date, the next case was #28551.

Wednesday, December 15, 2021
Six Pages

Again, these are cases, not permits

The cases:

  • 29094, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, i) terminate a standup 1280-acre unit, 30/31-154-92; ii) terminate an overlapping 1920-acre unit, 31/32-154-92 and 5-153-92; iii) establish an overlapping laydown 1280-acre units, 29/30-154-92; 7 wells; iv) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, 10 wells; Mountrail County
  • 29095, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, 9) terminate an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 32/33-154-92 and 4/5-153-93; ii) establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, 32, W/2-33-154-92, and section 5, and W/2 of section 4-153-92, two wells; Mountrail
  • 29096, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, i) terminate two overlapping laydown 1280-acre units, 4/5; and 5/6 - 153-92; ii) establish an overlapping laydown 1920-acre unit, 4/5/6-153092; 9 wells on each; Mountrail County
  • 29097, Grayson Mill Energy (Equinor), Catwalk-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 25/36-154-101 and 30/31-154-100; one well; McKenzie, Williams
  •  29098, Kraken, Oliver-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, 32/33-158-98 and 4/5/8/9-157-98; one well; Williams County
  • 29099, MRO, Chimney Butte and/or Bailey-Bakken, setback changes;
  • 29100, MRO, Chimney Butte and/or Bailey-Bakken, i) terminate an overlapping 5120-acre unit, 1/12/13/24-146-95; ii) establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 13/24-146-95 and 18/19-146-94; one well; Dunn County
  • 29101, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, i) terminate an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 17/18/19/20-146-94; ii) reduce the setback; no mention of wells; Dunn County
  • 29102, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, 16 wells on a stand-up unit, 6/7/18/19-146-94; Dunn County; see this post;
  •  29103, Hess, Ray-Bakken, seven wells on a 1280-acre unit, 28/33-157-96, Williams;
  • 29104, Hess, Manitou-Bakken, eleven wells on a 1280-acre unit, 18/19-155-94, Mountrail County
  • 29105, Hess, pooling
  • 29106, Hess, pooling
  • 29107, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, two wells on each of two overlapping 2560-acre units, 19/20/29/30- and 29/30/31/32-154-92, Mountrail
  • 29108, Ovintiv, commingling;
  • 29109, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, ten wells on a standup 1280-acre unit, 17/20-146-93; Dunn County

Thursday, December 16, 2021
Twelve Pages

Again, these are cases, not permits

The cases:

  • 29110, Zavanna, Stockyard Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, 16/17/20/21-154-99; a section line well; Williams County 
  • 29111, Zavanna, Stockyard Creek, Truax, and/or Long Creek-Bakken, establish three overlapping 2560-acre units, 25/26/35/36-154-99; 25/36-154-99 and 30/31-154-98; and 1/2/11/12-153-99; two or three section line wells; 
  • 29112, CLR, Jim Creek-Bakken, i) setback; ii) setback; iii) establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit 33/34-146-96 and 3/4-145-96, one section well; Dunn County
  • 29113, CLR, Jim Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre uinit, 21/22/27/28-146-96; two section line wells; Dunn County
  • 29114, WPX, Reunion Bay-Bakken; establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, 25/26/27-150-93, one well; Mountrail, Dunn counties
  • 29115, Grayson Mill (Equinor), Briar Creek-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping 2200-acre unit 19/20/21/22-152-104; ii) establish an overlapping 2200-acre unt, 27/28/29/30-152-104; iii) establish an overlapping 2200-acre unit, 31/32/33/34-152-104; and, iv) establish an overlapping 2200-acre unit, 3/4/5/6-151-104, five wells on each; Williams, McKenzie counties; see this post.
  • 29116, Ragnar Exploration LLC, Fryburg-Madison, establish five 320-acre units, S/2 section 21 and all of sections 20 and 22 - 139-100; one horizontal well one each unit; Billings County;
  • 29117, Ragnar Exploration LLC, Norwegian Creek-Madison, establish fourteen 320-acre units, sections 23/26/35-139-100; and section 2/3/10/11-138-100; one horizontal well on each 320-acre unit, Billings County; see this post;
  • 29118, Ragnar Exploration LLC, Rocky Hill-Madison, Billings County, establish four 320-acre units; sections 1/12-138-100; Billings County;
  • 29119, Foundation Energy Management, LLC, Bicentennial-Bakken, to authorize the recompletion and production of one vertical well in a 160-acre unit, SE/4 section 28-144-103; Golden Valley
  • 29120, Foundatin Energy Management, LLC, Beaver Creek-Bakken, recompletion and production of one existing vertical well in a 160-acre spacing unit SE4 section 1-142-103, Golden Valley;
  • 29121, Foundation Energy Management, LLC, Beaver Creek-Bakken, recompletion and production of one existing vertical well in a 160-acre spacing unit NW4 section 6-142-102, Billings County
  • 29122, Bison Oil & Gas III, LLC, revoke Bowline Energy permit,
  • 29123, CLR, pooling,
  • 29124 CLR, pooling,
  • 29125, CLR, Rattlesnake Point-Bakken, twelve wells on a 2560-acre unit, sections 11/14/23/26-146-96; Dunn County
  • 29126, CLR, Jim Creek-Bakken, two wells on a section line of an existing 2560-acre uinit, sections 22/23/26/27-146-96, Dunn County
  • 29127, CLR, Jim Creek-Bakken, two wells on a section line of an existing overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 34/35-146-96 and sections 2/3-145-96, Dunn County
  • 29128, Grayson Mill (Equinor), pooling, sections 35/36-155-100; and sections 1/2-154-100; Williams County
  • 29129, Grayson Mill (Equinor), pooling,
  • 29130, Grayson Mill (Equinor), pooling,
  • 29131, Grayson Mill (Equinor), pooling, 
  • 29132, Grayson Mill (Equinor), pooling,
  • 29133, Hunt Oil, pooling,
  • 29134, WPX, pooling,
  • 29135, Crescent Point Energy, pooling,
  • 29136, XTO, pooling,
  • 29137, XTO, pooling,
  • 29138, XTO, commingling,
  • 29139, Enerplus, commingling,

Plano FIU

There's a small strip of land that runs between the southern limits of Williston and the river, maybe a hundred feet wide in most places. That where these wells are sited. On the south side of US Highway 2 &85, just west of Williston, it looks like they are sited right out Handy Andy's Nursery backdoor. Google maps show the pad for #21933, and just to the west of this pad will be where the other seven Plano wells will be / are sited:

The wells:

  • 21933, 636, CLR, Plano 1-28H, Todd, t3/12; cum 290K 9/21; Baker, runs south of Williston;
  • 38218, conf, CLR, Plano FIU 5-28H, Todd,Baker, will run south of Williston;
  • 38219, conf, CLR, Plano FIU 4-28H, Todd,Baker, will run south of Williston;
  • 38220, conf, CLR, Plano FIU 3-28H, Todd,Baker, will run south of Williston;
  • 38221, conf, CLR, Plano FIU 2-28HSL, Todd,Baker, will run south of Williston;
  • 38222, conf, CLR, Plano FIU 6-28H, Todd,Baker, will run south of Williston;
  • 38223, conf, CLR, Plano FIU 7-28H, Todd,Baker, will run south of Williston;
  • 38224, conf, CLR, Plano FIU 5-28HSL Todd,Baker, will run south of Williston;

Graphics:

Random Update Of The Enerplus "Metamorphic Rock" Pad -- November 20, 2021

This page will not be updated.

The Enerplus "Metamorphic Rock" pad is tracked here.

When we last looked at this pad, back in May, 2019, the nine-well pad was all permits only; no activity. How things have changed in two years:

The wells:

  • 36225, conf, Enerplus, Hornfels 147-93-08D-05H, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum --;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-202184415950
8-202179035452
7-2021127139515
6-20211224565
5-202159763920
  • 36226, conf, Enerplus, Mylonite 147-93-08D-05H-TF, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum --;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20212043614424
8-20211768712301
7-20211837713631
6-2021118016577
5-202161394027
  • 36227, PNC, Enerplus, Eclogite 147-93-17A-20H, Moccasin Creek, 
  • 36228, loc, Enerplus, Phyllite147-93-17A-20H-TF, Moccasin Creek, 
  • 36229, conf, Enerplus, Slate 147-93-08D-05H-TF, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum --;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20212847120147
8-20212070814347
7-20212728120152
6-20212411213627
5-202139372583
  • 36230, loc, Enerplus, Quartzite 147-93-17A-20H-TF, Moccasin Creek, 
  • 36231, conf, Enerplus, Argillite 147-93-08D-05H, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum --;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-2021141739951
8-20211645311362
7-20212549918865
6-20212031211343
5-202195666275
  • 36232, loc, Enerplus, Marble 147-93-17A-20H, Moccasin Creek, 
  • 36233, loc, Enerplus, Gneiss 147-93-17A-20H-TF-LL, Moccasin Creek, a 2560-acre section line well,

Back To Energy, This Saturday Morning -- November 20, 2021

Demand destruction? Link here.

US crude oil, days of storage: still exceeds four weeks. Link here.  Price of gasoline coming down here in north Texas.

Canada: TransMountain will be off line for one more week. Link here. Posted the other day: 

British Columbia: speaking of a "wash," oh, boy. Did BC ever get hit hard with global warming rain. See the video at this link.

It's All About Electricity, Isn't It? November 20, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

This is not an investment site, but I sure am having fun -- fun that I would not have had had I not started blogging. 

Long story, but we've discussed it before. 

I flip-flop weekly regarding CNBC. Currently, for some reason, I'm watching a lot more than I used to. 

I've mentioned many times the best three hours of business and investment "entertainment" on television are all on CNBC:

  • Fast Money, includes last trades.
  • Halftime Report, includes last trades.
  • Squawk on the Street, varies in quality, but Jim Cramer sets the day's agenda
  • Mad Money, perhaps just the ten-minute introductory monologue

Oh, that's four. I've added Halftime Report.

It is amazing, for trading, how incredibly prescient some of the talking heads have been in their "final trades" recommendations. That's why I've started adding them to the blog. Right now, the final trades are posted haphazardly on the blog; I may have to get more formal. Fortunately, the "mechanism" already exists. 

Again, this is "trading," not "investing."

I bring this up because my earlier comments on how to value AAPL resulted in a reader asking about EV charging stations.

It seems I posted this link two years ago. It's an old link but it's a great place to start. I could be wrong, but I think the talking heads on CNBC favor ChargePoint. 

***********************
EVs

From Motley Fool, Friday, yesterday, November 19, 2021: why EV stocks Lucid and Rivian jumped today.

  • Lucid jumped 17%
  • Rivian jumped 4%
  • right now the analyst with mojo in the EV sector: Wedbush Daniel Ives
  • cites Brandon's nationwide rollout of charging stations
  • I'm still fascinated to see what "the charging station of the future will look like."

An AAPL A Day -- November 20, 2021

AAPL: someone mentioned Apple earlier this morning -- about Mexico and Canada upset with Brandon's policies / incentives for the EV industry. My reply, not ready-for-prime-time --

Regardless of all this "noise," the transformation to EVs is going to be absolutely the biggest thing to hit the US, and the world, in history. Well, maybe not bigger than the industrial revolution itself.

But this is huge. I'm not convinced it -- the transformation to EVs -- will succeed -- I don't even know what the definition of success will be -- but there is going to be a huge amount of money made (and lost). The one measure of success (FWIW): lower CO2 emissions. That won't happen.

I, of course, am fascinated watching and waiting to see what Apple will do. There are so many story lines: biggest story line: Apple won't have to deal with unions.  I'll post AAPL vs MSFT, 5-day share comparison, shortly. It's quite amazing.
 
But I honestly don't know how one values AAPL any more? A smartphone company? A car company? A chip company?

I'm pretty sure I hit it on the nose when I identified the players in the autonomous automobile sector.

The infrastructure bill that was just passed is just a start. 

Here's the graphic, blue = AAPL, yellow = Microsoft.


OLED: Qualcomm déjà vu. Link here.

Amid rumors about Apple's custom-designed modem for its 2023 iPhone lineup, a new report today suggested that the display panels destined for these models could put substantial pressure on LG Display's market share. 
According to research by UBI, seen by The Elec, BOE is converting three of its factories into facilities capable of manufacturing OLED panels for Apple. 
Until now, BOE has manufactured OLED panels for the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 at two factories in China, accounting for just 10 percent of all ‌iPhone‌ displays in 2021, but the significant expansion will reportedly allow the company to overtake LG Display as one of Apple's main suppliers of ‌iPhone‌ displays in 2023. 
By the fourth quarter of 2022, BOE will expand to reach a manufacturing capacity of 144,000 substrates per month, up from just 96,000 currently. This will exceed Samsung Display's current manufacturing capacity of 140,000 substrates per month, positioning BOE as a serious competitor.

The Grove: the "go-to" mall in west Los Angeles. 

Better than Disneyland for someone like me. LOL. And now this: Apple celebrates the opening of its Apple store in The Grove with Ted Lasso in appearance. Huge. 

An AAPL a day keeps the doctor away, but what about red wine, chocolate, and/or coffee?

Heart health: the data is in -- over at The Guardian --

  • red wine: over-hyped; no benefit;
  • chocolate: probably of some benefit, but must be dark, bitter; my favorite;
  • coffee: yup.

Good Morning, Y'all; In Israel, Well, That Didn't Take Long -- November 20, 2021

Mea culpa. Lo siento. Talking about "carnage" last night I forgot to ask what OPEC thinks about the Brandon plan to coordinate a global release of oil from SPRs. LOL. From social media:

OPEC has be on Zoom calls laughing at how dumb we are draining SPRs for $80-oil, putting them more in control. This further validates the work of [insert "peak oiler" here] that OPEC spare capacity nowhere near what is claimed.

OPEC compliance here

Locked and loaded. But will Brandon pull the trigger ? To release SPR oil now that oil has dropped below $80. The fact that oil has dropped below $80 gives him cover, but if oil prices start to climb, his reputation is on the line after getting China and Japan to support him. India is "more nuanced" in their support.

Covid-19: all that talk about Israel. Let's see the data. LOL. Looks like when "the going gets tough, the tough get going." LOL. Link here.  


Austria? We'll see the same thing, regardless of what they do.

Friday night lights: Texas high school football championship playoffs began last night. Our high school won the opening game in its bracket 71 - 28. No typo. Would have been 78 - 28 had the last kick-off return for a TD not been called back. And by the middle of the fourth quarter, things pretty much slowed down. Most amazing: it was streamed live on the internet, for free, and the coverage, video was every bit as good as Sunday NFL, including re-plays. Most amazing: the players played "professionally." I don't think there were any "unsportsmanlike" calls. On top of that, after the game, both teams lined up, walked past each other in one long, paying respects, fist bumps and congratulatory back slaps.

Interestingly, apparently the game is being looped, continuously streamed. For how long, I don't know. Link here

Arkansas in the news: museum in Arkansas will get copy of US constitution after historic auction. Link here. I guess I won't forget who runs Citadel now.

Clearing Out The In-Box -- November 20, 2021

Carnage: I was off line most of the day -- taking the day off. When I got back online tonight, based on tweets over at twitter I thought the world had come to an end with regard to WTI, Brent. 

I did not check share prices of any of the oil companies, save one, but it sounds like share prices across the sector plummeted. The only oil company I checked fell five percent but that was against a backdrop of a huge jump over the past few months.

But at $76-WTI we're still $20 / bbl above breakeven in many cases. Whether we are or aren't can be debated, but there are a lot of dynamics here. 

First, for the consumer, didn't "everyone" agree that the price of gasoline was getting a bit excessive? The divergence between the price of crude oil and the price of gasoline at the pump seems to be widening, in line with retail prices in all sectors, although Brandon thinks there is collusion to raise gasoline price, despite the fact that gasoline is a dollar/gallon more expensive in California than in its neighbor, Arizona.

Second, blaming this all on Austria / Covid seems to be a bit overdone. I understand the concerns folks have for the global economy, but I can't imagine another lock down even remotely close to what it was in 2020.

Third, most interesting, and this seems to be the growing consensus. If this is accurate, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. The consensus, it seems, is that for several years now there has been under-investment in crude oil exploration. Those in the West thought it would start to become quite apparent in 2022, whereas OPEC+ argued that supply / demand would start to balance out as early as 1Q22. At the same time, many in the West thought Brandon's energy policies would continue to hold back US production going forward. Talk of releasing oil from the SPR certainly risked that: if Brandon was going to release oil from the SPR it does not seem to behoove US oil companies to increase CAPEX when oil prices would be dropping. The end result: OPEC's prediction that supply / demand would  balance in 2022 is less likely to happen.

So, 2022, we're back to where we always seem to be, wondering whether crude oil will trend toward $100 or trend toward $50. I don't care for this "analyst," but he did post something of value today that speaks to all of this.

Bottom line for me: on so many levels, what happened today was good for everyone.

Let's see how far the price of gasoline falls. 

I've been saying this for quite some time -- the gap between the investing class and the non-investing class is widening faster than ever: see this link over at twitter. They call it “the massive chasm between the credentialed laptop class and the working-class.” 

NASDAQ: wow, wow, wow. NASDAQ surged and hit another all-time record today. I had no idea. Again, based on tweets over at twitter I thought the world had come to an end. I haven't checked yet, let's see what the chips did today:

  • QCOM: down 0.7% today after setting all-time highs earlier in the week; five days ago, it was trading at $170; today, trading at $185, up 11% over the past five days;
  • AMD: up slightly today; over five days, up 5%;
  • XLNX: actually rose a bit today; but, wow, talk about volatility; over the past five days, up less than 2%; will the AMD-XLNX deal ever close? I'm beginning to have my doubts;
  • AAPL: up 1.7% today; for five days, up 6.7%. 

AAPL: is getting more and more interesting every day. How does one value this company any more in light of Tesla, Rivian and Lucid, and in light of AMD, XLNX, and Qualcomm? Apple, Inc.:

  • a smartphone company?
  • a chip company?
  • a future Tesla or Rivian?

Covid-19: this is getting very interesting again, with what's going on in Austria. It's obvious no one has any idea how this will play out. I can watch this over and over and over. What's the plural of doofus?

Covid-19: for the archives. The origin story. This won't change any minds, but it's important. I guess. If nothing else, it's another data point.

Austria: Austria? Just two days ago, we were getting all those reports that Asia was opening up again, they had gotten through the most recent surge and things were getting back to normal. China, Vietnam (think Nike), Malaysia -- the front end of the supply chain challenges. 

Austria? Exactly what is Austria contributing to the global economy? Vienna sausages? Tortes? Bavarian chocolate cake? Beer? Traders make money on volatility and it looks like traders may have purposely scared investors to cause that volatility.

Speaking of which, what did the VIX do today? Up 2% -- that sounds bad but at 18, it's so low if it gets any lower they will have to re-adjust the y axis (see this graphic and set the filter to one year). It's even more dramatic at five years.

Calendar: next week is a wash; no matter what the market does next week, everyone will say it is due to less trading as we head into the five-day holiday. 

Speaking of which, this is getting very, very interesting. When I was in high school, decades ago, we got Thursday off for Thanksgiving. That was it. I was well out of high school when students were getting Thanksgiving Friday off, also. But then, folks started taking off on Wednesday to get home in time for Thanksgiving, and/or to go skiing in Colorado. Now, it seems to be the norm that Thanksgiving break is a full week. 
But look at this! In our school district, the administration and the teachers have essentially written off Friday (the week before Thanksgiving) for the high school students. Everyone is leaving early for Texas football playoffs; soccer tournaments; volleyball tournaments; and/or to go skiing in Colorado. 
We now have an eleven-day holiday for Thanksgiving.

British Columbia: speaking of a "wash," oh, boy. Did BC ever get hit hard with global warming rain. See the video at this link

Oh-oh, the road to New England: two stories -- more Russian tankers will be off-loading fossil fuel the winter for Boston, Massachusetts. 

When that was announced this past week, it was such a non-story -- everyone knew it was going to happen -- I didn't even bother posting it. 

Now, today, FERC announces that it will reduce the ROE rate to keep two (?) natural gas plants in Massachusetts afloat. I guess they're having trouble passing on the costs of natural gas to their consumers and/or demand destruction is taking a heavy toll -- or winter just isn't that cold yet. One wonders if natural gas pipelines from Pennsylvania might have helped. Just saying.

The Fed: That pretty much clears out my inbox for the day. I assume the big story Monday will be Brandon's announcement regarding the "new" Fed chairperson. 

Brandon said the announcement would be made in about four days, about three days ago, but I doubt he would make such a momentous announcement on the weekend. 
Most likely, in the normal way things are done, we could expect a news conference on Monday with the announcement, but this administration, like the previous administration, is anything but normal. If we don't have the announcement Monday, it simply means the two factions in his White House are still squabbling. Me? I'm betting on a change in who sits in the Fed chief's chair. If I'm correct, expect the Dow to plunge on Monday, about 10:35 a.m.