Thursday, November 13, 2014

NG Fill Rate -- Plummets To 40 -- November 14, 2014

Natural gas fill rate (see this post for background):
The number today: 40.

I don't think the polar vortex had yet arrived the week for this reporting; if it had, it was just beginning. The east, with 8, and the west, with 4, had incredibly paltry "fill" rates. Winter is still a month away. EIA comments:
Stocks were 220 Bcf less than last year at this time and 237 Bcf below the 5-year average of 3,848 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 102 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 8 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 106 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,251 Bcf after a net injection of 28 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 29 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net addition of 4 Bcf. At 3,611 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.
It is interesting the EIA did not provide "percent" below the 5-year historical range which they have done in the past. The overall/national storage appears to be about 7% below the 5-year historical average. The good news: the gap between this year's storage and the historical average seems to be narrowing (see graph at the link).  Next week's number, after a full week of the polar vortex, should be very interesting. For me, the number I am watching is the delta between the year's numbers and the historical average.
Apparently traders are not concerned; Bloomberg shows natural gas down a bit today (a dynamic link) and below $4.00 for a million Btu.
Active rigs:

Active Rigs186185189200158

RBN Energy: the spread between Western Canadian Select (WCS) and Gulf Coast equivalent heavy crude Maya has narrowed significantly, from $35/bbl last November to less than $12/bbl today. Great article on how Canadian oil is reaching US markets; you might be surprised.


Speaking of WCS, this is interesting. There is a headline out there somewhere that says despite action in the House and the Senate, POTUS has not changed his mind on the Keystone. That's interesting. I thought he had not made a decision; it is clear he will not approve the Keystone. He will not throw Tom under the bus. On the other hand, Landrieu is toast. She would have been toast anyway. I suppose the toast is just a bit more burned.


While waiting for data to be reported, this is kind of cool: yesterday I posted "tea leaves suggest that the wage growth (read: inflation) data is just not there for the Fed to raise interest rates."

This morning, this headline over at Fox Business, "Wage Growth Is The New Inflation Rate."

For Investors Only

I've noticed the same thing: some funds are trailing badly; probably due to being overweighted in energy. It should keep the bull market intact. Funds are said to be chasing performance. Yahoo!Finance is reporting:

For Thomas Lee, founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, this underperformance is a signal that stocks have a lot of firepower left. “Historically when fund managers trail - and this is really one of the three worst years in twenty - the October to year-end move is even bigger.” Lee notes that fund managers will be forced to chase the top-performing stocks. “Whatever has been working this year basically gets turbocharged and people pile into those names.”
This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Trading at new highs, but most of these highs were probably at the start of the day and have since pulled back: AAPL, BRK.A, BRK.B, MSFT, TGT, WMT.

Deepwater Gulf Production To Set New Record In 2016; Will Plateau After That -- Rigzone -- November 13, 2014

Rigzone is reporting:
Discoveries are being made in increasingly deeper waters and emerging plays that require complex drilling and more advanced, capital-intensive technologies.
To meet Wood Mackenzie’s production outlook, $17 billion in capital expenditures will be required, 30 percent higher than 2013
However, the region will face difficulty in growing over the next decade unless the oil and gas industry can overcome challenging economics due to high costs, technological limitations and low recovery rates.
“Not including yet finding reserves, we forecast that production will start to decline after plateauing out at 1.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2021,” said Imran Khan, GOM analyst at Wood Mackenzie, in a Nov. 13 press statement. “The current slide in oil prices does not help the long-term outlook either, especially if the downward trend continues for a prolonged period,” Khan noted.
Also at Rigzone:
The offshore rig market is a prime example with “a lot of supply” entering the market from “2014 through 2016 and to some extent 2017,” Gjerding explained.
The supply condition may differ across different segments of the oilfield services sector, but “in general, the decrease in demand is matched by an increase in supply.”
Seismic and exploration drilling will be the first segments experiencing spending cuts, according to DNB’s projection, even though supermajors and large cap independents have experienced the intent to carry on with their exploration activities.
Meanwhile, rig operating day rates in the ultra deepwater segment have experienced reductions, resulting in lower valuations for the offshore drilling asset class.
And later in that article:
The Saudis stand in the best position to benefit from additional demand created from sub-$100 oil prices, which are hitting offshore E&P as well as slowing down the spread of shale gas revolution from the U.S. to the rest of the world.
“Shale revolution will totally close down at $25 per barrel, but you only need to keep to $70 to $80 per barrel to get significant impact.”
“We don’t see clear signs [that] the Saudis want to remove the barrels to protect oil prices,” Kjus said.
Shale production contributed significantly to the growth in crude oil production in the United States, which is seen to have more than matched supply outages arising from political turmoil in the OPEC nations including Libya, South Sudan and Iran until 2014.
Kjus described U.S. crude producing states North Dakota, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas as the “new Iraq.” Oil production from the four states grew 3.3 million barrels per day since 2010, bringing U.S. monthly crude output to 8.7 million barrels per day, almost matching the level in the 1980s.
If oil gets down to $25/bbl due to supply/demand imbalance, a lot more than just the shale revolution is going to shut down. 

Train Derailment Near Casselton, North Dakota -- November 13, 2014

A reader just wrote to tell me there's been a train derailment near Casselton, ND.

Not a Bakken crude oil train.

Monitoring area for propane leak.

Will watch for news story and link.

The reader who sent me this is reliable.

Here's the link:
The Cass County Sheriff's Office says they believe the two trains involved are BNSF and both were traveling at very low speeds. The train going eastbound was hauling lumber and the train going west had empty oil tankers. Approximately 25 cars were derailed between the two trains.
No injuries or fire have been reported as of 6:30 p.m. Propane tanks on BNSF property were hit during the derailment, but do not appear to be compromised.
The reader's only question: what is it about Casselton, North Dakota?

Trivia: the propane tank on BNSF property part of the rail switch mechanism, I assume; more here. The reader tells me that the tank was knocked ajar but no leak. 

North Dakota To Require Producers To Treat Crude Before Shipping -- WSJ; November 13, 2014

The Wall Street Journal is reporting:
North Dakota plans unprecedented steps to ensure crude pumped from the state’s Bakken Shale oil producing region is safe enough to be loaded into railroad tank cars and sent across the country.
In the first major move by regulators to address the role of gaseous, volatile crude in railroad accidents, the North Dakota Industrial Commission, which regulates energy production in the state, said it would require Bakken Shale well operators to strip gases from crudes that show high vapor pressures.
Those changes could make the new rules more costly for the state’s smaller producers. Jack Ekstrom, vice president of government affairs for Whiting Petroleum Corp. said the rules don’t appear to be “a major material cost” he said. “This is perhaps more of a concern to a marginal or smaller operator.”
The state expects to issue final rules by December 11th.
Just When You Thought It Was Safe To Go Home Again

Nebraska hospital prepares for new Ebola patient -- surgeon from Sierra Leone being brought back to the US for treatment. 
A surgeon infected with Ebola will be transported from Sierra Leone to The Nebraska Medical Center for treatment, a U.S. government official familiar with the situation said.
The doctor, a Sierra Leone national and legal permanent resident of the United States, is expected to arrive this weekend, most likely Saturday, the official said.
The official said it's not known whether the doctor was working in an Ebola treatment unit or some other type of hospital. The surgeon is married to a U.S. citizen and has children, the official said.
The Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha is one of four hospitals in the United States that have biocontainment units and years of preparation in handling highly infectious disease such as Ebola.

What We Will Be Talking About Friday -- November 13, 2014; NDIC -- Crude Oil Needs To Be "Treated" Before Shipping

The Wall Street Journal

Halliburton in talks to buy Baker Hughes. Previously reported. But no one (shareholders, customers, or regulators) likes the idea. DOA?

White House considers timing on executive action on immigration. Let me guess: next Friday night, after 7:00 p.m. ET.

Harry Reid nominates/party accepts Pocahantas as a top adviser to Senate Democrats' policy and communications arm. A lot of "they didn't build that" over the next two years.

Low-key rollout set for second year of ObamaCare. I don't even know who succeeded Sebelius. Oh, that's right. I don't recall her name, but I think the HHS director is female and a budget analyst. I think I recall in a past life she worked for Wal-Mart.

Why not, what could possibly go wrong? Military researchers weigh infecting volunteers with Dengue fever. How does one spell "Tuskegee syphilis experiment"? Tuskege or Tuskegee? Syphillis or syphilis?

Mission creep: Pentagon considering bigger US troop role in Iraq. Speaking of which, there's a new biography of Bob Hope out this month.

Nothing like a war to get folks to agree on something: Baghdad and Kurds reach deal on oil.

Eurozone inflation to remain low.

Liberia lifts state of emergency, just as epidemic may be shfiting to Mali.

Amazon and Hachette end book dispute.

FCC chief squeezed by POTUS and GOP.

Here it is: NDIC will require producers to treat crude before shipping. In case that link breaks, this post.

Gas savings flow to Wal-Mart's carts.

CDC: more teens smoking E-cigarettes. And I assume weed in Colorado, Alaska, and Portland.

Who wudda guessed: gun manfacturer Colt may default.

UPS sets ambitious long-term earning goals.

Buffett to trade P&G stock to buy Duracell. Previously posted.

US oil prices drop below $75/bbl.

Holiday spending should cheer retailers.

Global demand for gold declines as China's appetite wanes.

Dow posts another record....sixth record in seven days.

Tea leaves: the wage growth (read: inflation) data is just not there for the Fed to raise interest rates. [Cool: I posted this November 13; then on November 14, 2014, the next day, this article on wage growth = inflation.]

The Los Angeles Times

John Muir's legacy questioned as centennial of his death nears. One word: wow. 

California can't challenge ruling on concealed guns, court says.

My kind of guy: Dorian "Doc" Paskowitz obit -- this physician gave up a lucrative practice for surfing because he said he never felt right about taking money from people in pain.  Dead at 93.
More than one California surfer has dreamed about following the waves in an old camper, picking up occasional odd jobs by day and generally blissing out at night.
But only one did it year after year with his wife and nine children crammed into a 24-foot camper that ultimately gave each child something like three cubic feet in which to grow up.
Only one started what became a famous surfing school on the sands of San Onofre and preached the benefits of surfing so unrelentingly that Tommy Hilfiger applied the family's name to a line of beachwear; when it came to surfing, the designer explained in 1999, "there's no one more cool and credible than the Paskowitzes."
Dorian "Doc" Paskowitz, a physician who abandoned the prospect of a lucrative practice for surfing because he said he never felt right about taking money from people in pain, died Monday at a hospice in Newport Beach. He was 93.
And with that, I'm going to start my night of watching James Bond, Blu-Ray, Volume 2, "You Only Live Twice"; "Thunderball"; and, "Diamonds Are Forever."

From wiki:
Connery's breakthrough came in the role of secret agent James Bond. He was reluctant to commit to a film series, but understood that if the films succeeded his career would greatly benefit.
He played the character in the first five Bond films: Dr. No (1962), From Russia with Love (1963), Goldfinger (1964), Thunderball (1965), and You Only Live Twice (1967) – then appeared again as Bond in Diamonds Are Forever (1971) and Never Say Never Again (1983).
All seven films were commercially successful. James Bond, as portrayed by Connery, was selected as the third-greatest hero in cinema history by the American Film Institute.
Later: this is the first time I've ever watched Diamonds Are Forever. I was unaware North Dakota had a "leading role" in this movie. Ha.

10 - 9 - 8 - 7 - 6 --

Come next summer, 2015, which companies won't be operating any more in the Bakken (as stand-alone companies or gone altogether)? I'm thinking:
  • KOG
  • Fidelity (division of MDU)
  • CHK 
  • Oasis
  • Samson Resources 
  • MHR (see first comment) 
  • Emerald Oil  (see third comment; here's the SeekingAlpha / Filloon link;
Might one add Halcon to the list? Newfield? SM Energy?

I don't know enough about the following companies to comment:
  • American Eagle
  • Triangle
This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

While thinking about that, consider also this post

For Investors
A long, long time ago, a reader mentioned that the biggest beneficiaries of  low gasoline prices might be stores like Dollar Stores and Wal-Mart.

I was reminded of that when I saw WMT on the list of companies trading at new highs today. An analyst suggested that low gasoline prices were likely responsible for Wal-Mart's earnings report. Although not by much, Wal-Mart did beat expectations by 3 cents.

One wonders if McDonald's might benefit.

This is simply idle chatter. I don't trade in either Wal-Mart or Dollar Stores or McDonald's or any of the other companies I might yet name below (if I do, I will say so). This is simply idle chatter. It provides me an opportunity to think about earnings reports a year from now and see how low gasoline prices might have affected them.

I have a brother-in-law who has a brand-new Toyota pick-up truck (has driven Toyota pick-up trucks for as long as I can remember) and always pays for gasoline in cash. I assume he could be used to paying with three $20-bills; now he may be paying with two such bills. Maybe not that big a difference, but one gets the point. He won't, but many folks will then take that "savings" on gasoline and buy something in the convenience store where they bought the gasoline. My brother-in-law will buy a hot dog at Costco. 

Global Warming

I happened to glance at the weather report here in the DFW area for tonight. It will get into the low 20's. Something I don't think most north Texans have experienced in many previous Novembers. And then this: there is a chance of a light dusting of snow on Sunday. That could be a first, I suppose.

MRO's Re-Fracking Program In The Bakken -- November 13, 2014

A long, long time ago, MRO mentioned that they were going to initiative an aggressive re-fracking program in the Bakken. I'm too tired to look up the original post(s) in which I suggested which wells were most likely to be re-fracked. But when I find the time, I will do that. For now, I have added these two wells to the list of MRO wells in the re-fracking program to follow-up later:
  • 17314, 431, MRO, Brown 24-9H, Killdeer, a 10 - 30' flare for fifty minutes; this is a bit confusing for me, but I believe this well was spud/completed in 2008, but it was re-fracked in August, 2014, and that's why it shows up in today's report; the re-frack data was not yet scanned in; last full month production was in July, 2014; it will be interesting to see what new production numbers are and what the re-frack data is; t8/08; cum 161K 9/14;
  • Permitted for re-entry: 16439, 373, MRO, Hecker 21-5H, Murphy Creek, t9/07; cum 223K 12/16; it was re-fracked; see post here;
At the sidebar at the right, I link "things that need to be followed up later."


This is the re-frack for 17314, 431, MRO, Brown 24-9H, Killdeer, re-fracked; t8/08; cum 316K 12/16:


Twenty-One (21) New Permits -- November 13, 2014; Statoil With Another "High-IP" Well

Wells coming off the confidential list Friday:
  • 27003, drl, Statoil, Brown 30-19 3H, Alger, no production data,
  • 27193, 495, EOG, Austin 87-36H, Parshall, 640 acres (short lateral); 24 stages; 7.2 million lbs sand, t6/14; cum 48K 9/14;
  • 27772, drl, Hess, BL-Iverson B-155-95-0708H-4, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
  • 28023, 1,161, XTO, Bang 31X-29D, Murphy Creek, t10/14; cum --

27193, see below, EOG, Austin 87-36H, Parshall:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold


Active rigs:

Active Rigs188182190201158

Two producing wells completed:
  • 24758, 3,002, Statoil, Melissa 31-30 6H, East Fork, frack data not scanned in yet, t10/14; cum --
  • 17314, 431, MRO, Brown 24-9H, Killdeer, a 10 - 30' flare for fifty minutes; this is a bit confusing for me, but I believe this well was spud/completed in 2008, but it was re-fracked in August, 2014, and that's why it shows up in today's report; the re-frack data was not yet scanned in; last full month production was in July, 2014; it will be interesting to see what new production numbers are and what the re-frack data is; t8/08; cum 161K 9/14;
One permit canceled:
  • 27054, PNC, Whiting, Tescher 44-12-1PH, Beaver Creek (Golden Valley),
Permitted for re-entry:
  • 16439, 373, MRO, Hecker 21-5H, Murphy Creek, t9/07; cum 113K 9/14;
Twenty-one (21) new permits:
  • Operators: XTO (6), QEP (4), BR (4), Enerplus (3), SHD Oil (3), Petro-Hunt
  • Fields: Midway (Williams), Heart Butte (Dunn), Mandaree (Dunn), Clark Creek (McKenzie), Corral Creek (Dunn), Camp (McKenzie), Charlson (McKenzie), Grinnell (Williams)
  • Comments:

Flashback: Harold Hamm Saw It Coming -- Keystone -- November 13, 2014

Flashback to a post on April 4, 2013, about 18 months ago: Another Keystone XL Workaround -- Harold Hamm Sees The Writing On The Wall -- Even If Keystone XL Is Approved, He Can Get His Pipeline In Sooner; Keystone XL Wounldn't Carry Bakken Light Sweet Regardless:
The pipeline, unofficially called the Double H, is proposed to stretch 462 miles from the Bakken oilfield location of Dore, North Dakota to Guernsey, Wyoming where it will connect with the Pony Express pipeline. The Pony Express formerly transported natural gas, but is being retrofitted to handle crude oil and would then transport the crude oil all the way to Cushing, OK, a storage and trading hub for crude oil. The oil purchased from Cushing is usually refined at Gulf Coast refineries.
The pipeline is to use 12” diameter pipe which will stretch across 48.4 miles of Fallon County. Its initial capacity was listed as 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) with a planned expansion of 80-100,000 bpd.

I don't know if this project has been complete -- perhaps a reader knows [see first comment below] -- but it would have gone into operation in August, 2014, or thereabouts.

And It Begins --- A $60 Oil Services Company Stock Surges Almost $8 -- November 13, 2014

HAL in talks to buy BHI.

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

 I see they both pay about 1.3% in dividends.

Saudi Oil Imports Into The United States (US) -- November 13, 2014; Nancy With Signs Of Early Alzheimer's?

I've been waiting six months to post this screen shot. Finally (actually two screen shots) -- the most recent data -- August, 2014 -- was released October 30, 2014.  First (this is the amount of oil imported into the US from Saudi Arabia, in thousands of bbls of oil per day):

You have to go all the way back to the 1980's to see numbers this low:

How does this look graphically? The link is here.

For newbies: the most recent number is 894,000 bopd imported into the US from Saudi Arabia for the most recent month data is available, August, 2014. The Bakken is producing in excess of one (1) million bopd. Imports dropped to this level back in 2009 but it was due to the Great Recession, not due to US roughnecks in the Bakken.

I forget the CEO who uses this phrase but it is a better phrase: we should be looking for energy flexibility, not energy independence. Saudi oil imports will never go to "zero" for this simple reason: the world's largest refinery is in the US, and is co-owned by Saudi Arabia.

Wal-Mart To Match Prices With Amazon


One of the best "things" to have come out of the mid-term 2014 elections is this: maybe we won't see Ms Pelosi as much as we have in the past few years. Ms Pelosi has been #2 in Congress (House of Representatives) for quite some time but one would think she was the Speaker of the House based on how often networks and the mainstream media feature her in photographs and videos. But she is featured in the ménage à trois photo ops only because she accompanies POTUS and Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader.

I assume that in the future, we will see less of the liberal ménage à trois now that the Senate majority leader is M&M. At least I hope so. Her fifteen minutes were up a long, long, time ago.

For newbies: ménage à trois is French for "household of three." Wow, what an apt word for Barry-Harry-and-Nancy.

Speaking of Nancy -- early signs of Alzheimer's? In recent press conference she stated she did not know who Jonathan Gruber was, suggesting she had not heard of him before. Back in 2009, she relied on Jonathan Gruber's analysis to "sell" ObamaCare:

When Nancy DID Know Who Mr Gruber Was

A Must-Read Article On The Bakken In An Era Of Low Prices -- Reuters -- November 13, 204

Another nice article, link sent by a reader (thank you). Reuters is reporting:
Falling oil prices have spooked Wall Street and even parts of Texas. But in North Dakota's booming oil patch, the crude-fueled party carries on.
Since June, the price of crude oil has fallen 30 percent to about $75 a barrel, raising fears that oil production would slow across the United States. But you wouldn't know it here. The state's economy remains the fastest growing in the nation, thanks to more than 1 million barrels of oil produced each day. 
Billions of investment dollars continue to flow to new wells, apartments and shopping centers, a bet that development of the state's prolific Bakken shale formation, which the U.S. government believes could hold more than 7 billion barrels of oil, will abide. 
"The oil price drop is a topic of discussion here," said Joel Lundeen, an owner of The Bakken Club, a $5,000 initiation fee dining establishment in Williston, the de facto capital of the state's oil boom "But people aren't freaking out." 
One reason: The price of oil would have to fall considerably before a major impact. While analyst projections vary widely - some focus on costs to continue drilling; others to build new pipeline - state officials consider $42 per barrel the price at which most production would cease. That's about $35 below the current price for benchmark American crude, a level many are betting won't be reached due to insatiable global energy appetite. 
Simply put: community leaders and industry executives are confident - despite two previous oil busts - that the oil and natural gas buried miles underground here will remain profitable to extract for years to come.
There is much more at the linked article. 

This is not to say that this will not be a difficult two years. It could be very challenging, very painful, and perhaps more painful than I think. But in the big scheme of things, I think this -- the slump in oil prices -- is good for a) the Bakken; and, b) the US.

Economics No Longer Make Keystone XL Viable -- CNBC

Link here.

I posted the same thing yesterday (doubting that TransCanada would be quick to build it with the slump in price of oil, the dramatic increase in cost estimates, and the fact that Canada has a long-term option, and in the short term, Canadian oil is still reaching its markets).

It is interesting to note that the linked CNBC article does not include the new price tag for the Keystone XL.

The linked article also notes:
The so-called "heavy oil" extracted from sand in Alberta, which the proposed pipeline would carry to Nebraska, en route to refineries on the Gulf Coast, will cost between $85 and $110 to produce, depending on which drilling technology is used, according to a report in July by the Canadian Energy Research Institute, a nonprofit whose work is often cited by Keystone proponents. West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded today at $76.67.
"Anything not under construction [is] at risk of being delayed or canceled altogether," said Dinara Millington, vice president for research at Calgary-based CERI. Her cost estimates include the price of drilling new wells, meaning that existing wells that have already been paid for can continue to pump oil profitably, she said.
In my list of those feeling the pain of low oil prices, I keep forgetting to add Canada/Canadian oil sands. My apology.

At the top of my list of those feeling the pain: Venezuela.

Deep-sea drilling.

Then Canada/Canadian oil sands.

Then Russia. 

I don't put any of the other OPEC countries at the top of the list though others do. 

Mid-Day Market

I see MDU increased its quarterly dividend, albeit rather small. From the press release:
The MDU Resources Group (NYSE: MDU) board of directors today increased the company's quarterly common stock dividend to 18.25 cents per share, for an annualized dividend of 73 cents per share. The previous quarterly dividend was 17.75 cents per share.
This is the 24th consecutive year that MDU Resources has increased its common stock dividend, a mark achieved by only about 3 percent of the more than 3,300 North American-listed, dividend-paying common stocks traded on a major exchange.
Holy Toledo! The number of companies trading at new highs is incredible, and the market is up only 40 points. Six of the last seven days the market has hit new record highs. It would have been seven straight days but yesterday the Dow was down a couple of points. Of note: AAPL, BRK.A, BRK.B, CAH, CSX, MSFT, TGT, WMT, YHOO.

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Bakken & Niobrara Crude Takeaway & Markets Congress: January 28 - 29, 2015, Denver, CO

Link here to web page.

Register by Friday, November 21, 2014, to save $400 on registration fees.

Speaking -- representatives from:
  • Enbridge
  • Missouri River Resources (CEO)
  • Crestwood Midstream Partners
  • Dakota Plains Holdings
  • Genesis Energy
  • BOE Midstream
  • Meritage Midstream
  • Greater North Dakota Chamber (President and CEO)
  • Watco Companies
Conferences linked at sidebar at the right.

Unemployment Benefits Rose More Than Forecast, Simply A "Pause" -- Reuters -- November 13, 2014

The daily activity report for yesterday was posted this morning by NDIC; the summary has been posted. Of note: five OXY USA permit cancellations. 

Active rigs:

Active Rigs188182190201158

RBN Energy: ethane. Way too much. Way more than even RBN Energy predicted. What to do with it all?

Natural gas fill rate: numbers will be released tomorrow.

For Investors

Warren buys Duracell from P&G; a case study in how to minimize taxes on capital gains.

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

The market is off to a good start. BRK-B trading at new highs. UNP flirting with new highs. SRE down a big, again. With regard to SRE and LNG, the Financial Times is reporting:
Would-be exporters are striking a confident tone. Sempra Energy, which plans to build a $10bn LNG project in Louisiana along with GDF Suez of France and Japan-based Mitsubishi and Mitsui, says customers seek the “stability and continuity” of US supplies.
“And we really haven’t seen that interest abate even as we’ve seen oil prices fall in the last few days here,” says Sempra president Mark Snell.
Sempra does not anticipate cutting a ribbon on its project until 2018.
“It was a misperception to believe that oil-linked prices would always be high and spot gas prices always low,” says Jason Bordoff of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.
“And a short-term dip in oil prices does not tell us where oil prices will be when US LNG exports start up in large volumes several years from now.”
The best news: by 2018, there will be a new president in the White House.

Jobs Report

Reuters is reporting:
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits rose more than forecast last week, representing a pause from a recent run of readings close to a 14-year low.  
How bad was it? Up 12,000. Generally the swing is well under 6,000. But to make the number seem not so bad, Reuters has a new benchmark: 300,000.
Jobless claims increased by 12,000 to 290,000 in the week ended Nov. 8, the highest since Sept. 20, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 280,000. It was the ninth straight week claims have been less than 300,000. 
Volatility? Yes, the four-week average, in the very last paragraph of the article, rose:
The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly figures, rose to 285,000 last week from 279,000. 
I assume Reuters hoped folks would not read to the end of the story.

Polar Vortex, Early November, 2014 (unnamed)

All 50 states brace for freezing weather.  This, despite the fact that atmosphere CO2 exceeds the magic number of 400 ppm.