Thursday, November 13, 2014

NG Fill Rate -- Plummets To 40 -- November 14, 2014

Natural gas fill rate (see this post for background):
The number today: 40.

I don't think the polar vortex had yet arrived the week for this reporting; if it had, it was just beginning. The east, with 8, and the west, with 4, had incredibly paltry "fill" rates. Winter is still a month away. EIA comments:
Stocks were 220 Bcf less than last year at this time and 237 Bcf below the 5-year average of 3,848 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 102 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 8 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 106 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,251 Bcf after a net injection of 28 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 29 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net addition of 4 Bcf. At 3,611 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range.
It is interesting the EIA did not provide "percent" below the 5-year historical range which they have done in the past. The overall/national storage appears to be about 7% below the 5-year historical average. The good news: the gap between this year's storage and the historical average seems to be narrowing (see graph at the link).  Next week's number, after a full week of the polar vortex, should be very interesting. For me, the number I am watching is the delta between the year's numbers and the historical average.
Apparently traders are not concerned; Bloomberg shows natural gas down a bit today (a dynamic link) and below $4.00 for a million Btu.
Active rigs:

Active Rigs186185189200158

RBN Energy: the spread between Western Canadian Select (WCS) and Gulf Coast equivalent heavy crude Maya has narrowed significantly, from $35/bbl last November to less than $12/bbl today. Great article on how Canadian oil is reaching US markets; you might be surprised.


Speaking of WCS, this is interesting. There is a headline out there somewhere that says despite action in the House and the Senate, POTUS has not changed his mind on the Keystone. That's interesting. I thought he had not made a decision; it is clear he will not approve the Keystone. He will not throw Tom under the bus. On the other hand, Landrieu is toast. She would have been toast anyway. I suppose the toast is just a bit more burned.


While waiting for data to be reported, this is kind of cool: yesterday I posted "tea leaves suggest that the wage growth (read: inflation) data is just not there for the Fed to raise interest rates."

This morning, this headline over at Fox Business, "Wage Growth Is The New Inflation Rate."

For Investors Only

I've noticed the same thing: some funds are trailing badly; probably due to being overweighted in energy. It should keep the bull market intact. Funds are said to be chasing performance. Yahoo!Finance is reporting:

For Thomas Lee, founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, this underperformance is a signal that stocks have a lot of firepower left. “Historically when fund managers trail - and this is really one of the three worst years in twenty - the October to year-end move is even bigger.” Lee notes that fund managers will be forced to chase the top-performing stocks. “Whatever has been working this year basically gets turbocharged and people pile into those names.”
This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Make no travel plans based on what you read here. I post quickly and frequently; typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Trading at new highs, but most of these highs were probably at the start of the day and have since pulled back: AAPL, BRK.A, BRK.B, MSFT, TGT, WMT.

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