Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Tidying Up Loose Ends -- May 14, 2019 -- Holy Mackerel -- CLR Got A Great Well With A "Do-Over"

For newbies: it is truly amazing what an experienced team can do when they are drilling an unconventional well where they know the area like the back of their oil-stained hands. This well has produced almost 700,000 bbls of crude oil in less than three years.
  • Total gas: 964,677 MCF = 160,753 boe
  • Total boe: 691,213 + 160,753 = 852,000 boe in less than three years. Whoo-ah!
Previously posted:
February 17, 2015: this well was IA/SI (inactive/shut-in) the day it came off the confidential list; during the slump in oil prices; developed a hole in liner during stim ops; CLR may come back to re-drill:
  • 27563, PA/420, CLR, Holstein Federal 1-25H, Elm Tree, when I checked May 5, 2015, the frack data showed only one frack stage; the well was shown as active, having produced nicely in February and March, 2015, but no test date; was it fracked? Update: test date 2/11/15; cum 32K 5/15; only 10 days in 6/15; none in 7/15 or 8/15; update here; remains PA, 8/16;
Note: in that note, it was said that CRL might come back to re-drill. Did they? They certainly did: #32294 was drilled right next to #27563. How did it do?
  • 32294, 2,320, CLR, Holstein Federal 13-25H, Elm Tree, t11/16; cum 760K 7/19;
CLR's Holstein Federal wells in Elm Tree are tracked here

From the well file: the narrative is barely a page long (the original report was lost; so this was a summary, of sorts; all in a day's work -- this is simply amazing what these roughnecks are doing -- barely a week's worth of work/drilling, and they get a well that has produced almost 700,000 bbls crude oil in less than three years.
  • spud: March 27, 2016
  • TD curve: April 4, 2016
  • Began lateral: April 7, 2016
  • cease drilling: April 11, 2016
  • target: middle Bakken
  • in the target zone: 100%
  • lateral was drilled in 75 bit hours
  • low gas units
  • flares of 1 - 5'  
If the frack report was there, I missed it. I could not find it. However, FracFocus said it was stimulated 11/10/2016 - 11/21/2016; with 12.9 million gallons of water; a typical frack.

Full production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Random Update On The Equinor Skarston Wells -- May 14, 2019

The Equinor Skarston wells in Banks oil field are followed here.

These are really some incredibly good wells. I haven't followed them in a long, long time, but tonight I noticed that there has been some activity affecting these wells.

Newbies and those interested in the Skarston wells should look at the updated production data (at the link above), and then look at a typical production profile for one of the Skarston wells, #25854. It appears that the Skarston wells have all come off line for a month or so; and are now returning to production with a jump in production.

Maybe if I have time some night, I will try to see if any of the existing Skarston wells were recently fracked.

Recent production data for #25854; FracFocus: no data suggesting a recent frack:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

My Exuberance For The Bakken May Have Gotten Ahead Of Me, But I Cannot Explain this CLR Whitman Well, #20212.

Note: be very careful on this one. Things don't add up. I don't think I've made a mistake in posting what I've posted but something is really, really strange with #20212 below.

Summary: #20212 was a fairly mediocre well (a lousy well?) after it was first drilled/completed back in 2011. Then it had a nice jump in production with a re-frack in 9/17 with a huge re-frack. Then, in 9/18, a year later, with no data suggesting a re-frack, the well had an even greater production jump.

This is how it all started. Back on February 4, 2019, I asked this question:
Is Something Going On With CLR's Phenomenal Hawkinson Wells In Oakdale Oil Field?
The Oakdale oil field and Hawkinson permits are tracked here. The Whitman wells are tracked here. They were in the process of being re-fracked back in 2018.

See this post.

So, with that, I took another look at 20210 and 20212 today.

Look at the most recent production data. Production jumps again in the most recent month for which we have data, 3/19. Truly amazing. The well:
  • 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale, Bakken, t9/11; cum 1.629573 million bbls/112/18; FracFocus/NDIC: no record of refrack; huge jump 9/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

FracFocus: no data suggesting a re-frack. I see a lot of activity in the Hawkinson well area to the north, but no activity on the NDIC mad in the area of the two Whitman wells.

But right next to this well,
  • 20212, 482, CLR, Whitman 3-34H, Oakdale, Bakken; t9/11; 376K 3/19 re-fracked 9/17;
That note says it was re-fracked in 2017 and there was a huge jump in production 10/17 BUT now we see another huge jump in production as of 9/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

FracFocus: no data that this well was re-fracked in 8/18, but obviously it had to have been. But the NDIC sundry forms show a re-frack 9/17 (61 stages; 14.5 million lbs) but no more recent frack.

I see no other activity in this drilling area to explain the production data for this well, #20212. Either the data has not been posted, or there's a typo somewhere, but there has to be an explanation for a production profile like the one above.

I'm going to be really, really embarrassed if I missed a sundry form that explains this.

Another Large Crude Oil Build -- May 14, 2019

First things first: I love it -- every week it's a "surprise." So, again this week:
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a large surprise build in crude oil inventory of 8.6 million barrels for the week ending May 10, coming in significantly over analyst expectations of a 2.125-million-barrel drawdown in inventories.
So there you have it:
  • API forecast: a 2.125-million-bbl drawdown
  • actual: a huge 8.6-million-bbl build
  • that's a "swing" of almost 11 million bbls
Price of oil: hardly moves. With all the saber-rattling in the Mideast right now, can you imagine what oil would be doing if this were 1984?

We will see if EIA corroborates the data tomorrow.

Beverly Hills Cop, 1984:
  • Axel F, Harold Faltermeyer

The Sporadic Nature And Unpredicatability Of The Bakken -- May 14, 2019

September 22, 2016: watch for halo effect on #16473; check to see why #24229 and #24230 were off-line so much in 4/16 through 7/16;  #24229 with huge halo effect;
So, let's see what these wells are doing doing now.

The well:
  • 24230, 2,927, BR, State Veeder 11-25MBH, 33-053-04530, Blue Buttes, t5/13; cum 339K 3/19
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  • small jump in production; 
  • off line again in 3/19 
  • FracFocus: no data suggeting a re-frack
Another well in the area has show some unusual jumps in production which did not last long:
  • 16473, 351, BR, State Veeder 41-36H, Blue Buttes, t4/07; cum 200K 3/19; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

FracFocus: no data suggesting a re-frac.

For newbies: the Bakken is dynamic. Once a well is drilled and producing that is not the end of the story. That well will take on a life of its own: re-works, small re-fracks; major re-fracks; impacts from neighboring activity. In the immediate area of this well there is so much activity it would be hard-pressed to state exactly what is causing the sporadic jumps in production.

Re-Posting -- Deadline Tomorrow, May 15, 2019, For Pipeline Permit

Deadline: tomorrow, May 15, 2019 -- a reader brought this to my attention -- one of many links here:
  • New England, NYC, Long Island
  • National Grid needs access to more natural gas if growth is to continue
  • access to more natural gas hinges on permits for pipelines
  • National Grid says it will put the moratorium on hookups back in place if the new pipeline permits are not approved
  • affects Westchester County, NYC, Long Island
  • directly from the article: the problem stems from three things: 
    • significant growth in natural-gas demand created by the current development boom,
    • increased demand from existing buildings converting to gas from dirtier energy sources such as heating oil, and 
    • more extreme heating needs as climate change brings more extremely cold winter days
  • no new pipeline has been approved since 2013
  • at the link, the writer proposes the equivalent of President Carter's solution: wear sweaters in the winter
Actually it sounds like -- according to the article -- even without any growth, the National Grid natural gas supply is already stretched to its limits during the winter.

My hunch: they will find a way to thread the needle.

Likely solution: "forbid" National Grid from any moratorium on hookups but approve no new pipeline permit, waiting to see what this next winter brings. Seems crazy but kicking the can down the road has worked since 2013. If nothing else, the "May 15th" deadline will be extended, as the"parties remain talking."

Note the third point made by a "global warming" proponent: part of the current problem is due to "more heating needs as climate change brings more extremely cold winter days."

Hess With Three New Permits -- May 14, 2019

WTI: saber-rattling continues in the Mideast, and WTI barely moves.

Deadline: tomorrow, May 15, 2019 -- a reader brought this to my attention -- one of many links here:
  • New England
  • National Grid needs access to more natural gas if growth is to continue
  • access to more natural gas hinges on permits for pipelines
  • National Grid says it will put the moratorium on hookups back in place if the permits are not approved
  • affects Westchester County, NYC, Long Island
  • directly from the article:
  • the problem stems from three things: significant growth in natural-gas demand created by the current development boom, increased demand from existing buildings converting to gas from dirtier energy sources such as heating oil, and more extreme heating needs as climate change brings more extremely cold winter days
  • no new pipeline has been approved since 2013
  • at the link, the writer proposes the equivalent of President Carter's solution: wear sweaters in the winter
Too big to fail: international banks re-new terms on Mexico's debt.
  • US banks: HSBC, JP Morgan, Mizuho Securites
    • extend maturity of a $5.5 billion loan by two years
    • will refinance $2.5 billion in existing debt
    • business as usual
  • the tea leaves suggest that Mexico is on the road to Venezuala
  • Mexico says it will use the money to boost oil production in aging fields
    • a bit of smoke-and-mirrors: migration from legacy assignment titles to production sharing agreements even though the current president has suspended all contracts signed by the previous administration "pending review"
  • Mexico recently announced a lifeline of almost $4 billion for heavily-indebted Pemex
  • Pemex production: 
    • 2013: 2.522 million bopd
    • 2017: 1.948 million bopd
    • 2018: 1.813 million bopd
    • goal: 2.522 million bopd by the end of AMLO's "term" in office
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs6560512783

Three new permits:
  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Manitou (Mountrail County)
  • Comments: Hess has permits for a 3-well EN-Ruland pad in lot 1 / section 4-155-94
That was all.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- May 14, 2019

NDIC monthly report: expect the Director's Cut to be released tomorrow, May 15, 2019, at 2:00 p.m. Link here

Mideast: reports of drones attacking Saudi pipelines. WTI up 1.5% today; up about a dollar, now trading just below $62. 

US shale: setting new production records. Link here. For another view, the shale boom is about to go bust (previously linked).

Weatherford: to file for Chapter 11.

Keeping America great: Eqinor to pay almost a billion dollars for a stake in Shell's oilfield in the Gulf of Mexico. Data points:
  • will acquire an additional 22.45 percent in Shell Offshore Inc.'s Caesar Tonga oilfield
  • 180 miles SSW of New Orleans
  • Equinor's current production from this area: 18,600 boepd
  • all cash
  • a month ago, the deal was expected to be with Delek Group and not Equinor
  • Equinor had preferential rights
  • the field, now
    Equinor: 46%
  • Anadarko, the operator: 33.75%
  • Chevron: 20.25% (you can start to see the synergies Chevron saw with Anadarko)
  • back of the envelope
    • already has 22.45%
    • exactly doubles that
    • 18,600 boepd x $50 = about $1 million / day
    • $1 billion cash / $1 million /day ---> 1,000 days of production
Wells coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, May 14,  2019:
  • 34634, SI/NC, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 13-31-30TF2H, Elm Tree, no production data,
  • 34238, 640, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 42-23 8T, Banks, t12/18; cum 80K 3/19; the Aagvik wells are tracked here;
  • 34237, 576, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 42-23 7B, Banks, t12/18; cum 111K 3/19;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6460512783

RBN Energy: Gulf Coast Express set to reshuffle some Permian gas outflows.
Permian natural gas prices have been on a wild ride lately, trading more than $5/MMBtu below zero in early April before recovering to just above zero over the last few weeks. It’s hardly a secret that the Permian’s gas market woes have been the direct result of production exceeding pipeline capacity. That situation is set to change in a few months, when Kinder Morgan starts up its 1.98-Bcf/d Gulf Coast Express Pipeline, providing much needed new takeaway capacity. And that’s not all GCX will do. Its start-up will shift huge volumes of gas toward the Texas Gulf Coast that currently flow out of the Permian to other markets, likely causing a ripple effect across more than just the West Texas gas market. Today, we look at how Kinder Morgan’s new gas pipeline will redirect significant volumes of Permian gas currently flowing north to the Midcontinent.
The Magazine Page

This is very timely. I'm in my dinosaur phase, studying again the history of life on earth using the dinosaurs as the midpoint -- for everything that came before and then everything that came after.

The June issue of Scientific America's lead article: "The Rise of the First Animals." Whoo-hoo!

Of course, the magazine had to include a politically correct article, "Yes, Climate Change Is Making Severe Weather Worse." Okay, it is agreed that the temperature of the year will increase by 2 to 5 degrees over the next 100 years which means that we have not seen more than a half a degree change so far, if that. Many would argue it's been much less, and some would argue that it's actually gotten cooler. If so, perhaps global cooling is due to the solar minima which even NOAA/NASA are discussing as "fact." 

So, it's hard for me to believe that "severe weather is getting worse" due to climate change. At worse, the earth has warmed by a a tenth of a degree since Occasional-Cortex was born; perhaps it's gotten slightly cooler; it's possible, the temperature hasn't changed at all. But regardless, it's hard to believe it's affected the weather.

In the United States, hurricanes and tornadoes have been less ferocious than historical and after that I'm not sure what folks mean by severe weather.

The permanent drought we were going to see in the southwest US, if not the entire US: historic floods in Texas and Iowa this year. Maybe that's what they mean by "climate change" making severe weather worse.

For now, I'm going to read about the "rise of the first animals." 

The Apple Page

And so it goes: