Later, 9:07 p.m. Central Time: wow, Don is fast. Not more than six minutes did I post the note below than he sends me this March 19, 2017 article from SeekingAlpha: Tesla bankruptcy chances increased exponentially with the capital raise. I do not recall seeing this particular article. The summary:
- Tesla communicated Model 3 ramp to investors ahead of the capital raise has disastrous consequences
- the small raise means Tesla will run out of money during a bad Model 3 ramp and make it difficult to get future raises on advantageous terms
- on the current path, we believe there is a better than 50% chance Tesla will be reorganized in the next 12 to 24 months
- "If you think your IQ is 160 but it's 150, you're a disaster. It's much better to have a 130 IQ and think it's 120." - Charlie Munger
For those who might have forgotten, these were Tesla's production goals:
Re-posting Tesla guidance regarding production: What is the most current Tesla guidance for Model 3 production?
According to the linked SeekingAlpha article, posted July 31, 2017:So, how did Tesla do with regard to its September goals .... drum rolls --- badda, badda, bing --- missed them according to The WSJ: holy mackerel, Batman, it wasn't even close:
- July, 2017: 30
- August, 2017: 100
- September, 2017:1,500
- December, 2017: 20,000
Tesla Inc. badly missed its goal of building 1,500 Model 3 cars in the third quarter, the first sign that the production ramp-up for the new sedan isn’t going as smoothly as planned.
The Silicon Valley electric-car maker built 260 of the Model 3s between July and September, the company said Monday in a statement.
In August, the auto maker predicted it would build more than 1,500 Model 3s before cranking up production to 5,000 a week by the end of the fourth quarter.
The Model 3, which starts at about $35,000, represents Chief Executive Elon Musk’s bet that he can transform the luxury auto maker into a more mainstream player around the world. Tesla blamed “production bottlenecks” for the weaker production.This is interesting. It turns out that the wiring is a nightmare. Not sure if robots can do it. I don't know it, but this is a disaster. How did the market respond? At the close, TSLA was up 43 cents (0.135. In after hours trading, at 7;59 p.m. EDT, shares were off $5.52 (1.62%). It will be interesting to see how the market takes this when it's widely reported tomorrow morning.
Again, between July and September, 2017, the company built 260 of the Model 3s -- its goal was 30 in July; 100 in August; and, 1,500 in September.
I can't wait for the "longs on Tesla" to explain this on SeekingAlpha how this is "good news" for Tesla. And it's already beginning. From the linked WSJ article:
Tesla delivered only 220 Model 3s during the quarter, well below the 1,300 that analysts surveyed by FactSet expected on average. Tesla sold these first Model 3 vehicles in the quarter to employees and investors, and expects to begin delivering them to nonemployees in the final three months of the year.
Some analysts weren’t confident in Tesla’s ability to meet Model 3 expectations in the quarter. Ben Kallo, an analyst for R.W. Baird, said in a Sept. 29 note to investors that Tesla was likely behind, estimating the company had delivered only about 300 to 400 Model 3s. “We believe Q3 will be the most challenging part of the Model 3 production ramp,” he wrote.The only question: has Las Vegas any odds on when this company declares bankruptcy?
The Edwin Hawkins Singers