Friday, October 15, 2021

No New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed; One Permit Canceled -- October 15, 2021

Covid-19 vaccinations: huge jump in number of vaccinations given over the past two days. Link here. On another note, finally, US opens borders to foreign tourists. I'm loving it.

Seriously under-valued: US oil companies are seriously undervalued. I really like a handful of analysts over at Alex Kimani is one of them 

Greta: did you hear that coal generation in the UK jumped as wind speed dropped. Yup, that's what Charles Kennedy is reporting. 

Coal met some 3 percent of the UK’s electricity demand on Friday morning, reaching its highest level of Britain’s power generation in one month, amid lower wind speeds this week and an outage at a gas-powered plant, Bloomberg reports. 

The last time the UK generated 3 percent of its electricity from coal was in early September when low wind generation reduced renewable power supply and triggered the massive spikes in UK wholesale electricity prices.  

Utility Uniper fired up its coal-powered plant in Ratcliffe early on Friday, while the gas-fired plant in Pembroke, Wales, operated by RWE, suffered an unplanned outage. [It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see where this is headed.]

Over the past week, gas has consistently accounted for the largest share of the UK’s electricity generation, according to data from National Grid ESO. For example, on Wednesday, gas produced 44.8 percent of Britain’s electricity, more than wind with 19.2 percent and nuclear with 12.6 percent. 

Surging natural gas prices and warm and still weather in September forced the UK to fire up an old coal plant that was on standby in order to meet its electricity demand. 

The UK has pledged to phase out coal-fired power generation by October 2024.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2616606859

No new permits.

One permit canceled:

  • 38512: Kraken, Maddie, Williams County.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 35456, 471, QEP, MHA 5-29-30H-150-92, on a six-well pad; two wells are shown as actively producing, #35453 and #35455
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 35453, 2,518, QEP MHA 7-27-26H-150-92, Van Hook, t7/20; cum 267K 8/21; taken off line for a few days in 5/21;
  • 35455, 681, QEP MHA 7-29-30H-150-92, Van Hook t7/20; cum 399K 8/21; taken off line 4/21 - 5/21;
  • in addition,
    • 35454, conf, QEP, MHA 5-27-26H-150-93, Van Hook,
      DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- October 15, 2021

Aluminum: the other day I mentioned winner / loser :: aluminum / plastic. Now this: Alcoa initiates a quarterly dividend. Alcoa hasn't paid a dividend since 2016. Announced yesterday, Alcoa, link here:

  • record quarterly net income 3Q21
  • a 10% sequential increase in revenue
  • aluminum is among the many metals facing shortages right now
  • aluminum prices at record heights: now trading at $3,117 per ton
  • "the company is now authorized to purchase up to $650 million shares of its common stock after announcing a new share repurchase program worth up to $500 million"
  • will initiate a quarterly dividend, 10 cents/share; payable November 19, 2021, of record as of October 29, 2021

Cars: car dealers in the area -- and we have some huge dealerships -- must be under intense pressure to survive. The lots are literally empty in some cases and very close to empty in most, if not all, dealerships.  Some are willing to take orders; others are not; the latter, first come, first served. One dealership with this sign: cash offer for used cars in five minutes. I'm sure there's some hyperbole there but if accurate not even time for a dealer's mechanic to check out the used car.

WTI: $82.35.

Slim Chickens: first noted at the blog on September 22, 2021. A reader, thank you very much, has just sent a photo of the new eatery under construction ... hope to get it enclosed before winter?

Trenton: once that $2.8 billion facility begins construction in 2023, Williston is going to need a lot of:

  • hotels;
  • restaurants:
  • and so much more.

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- October 15, 2021

Goldman Sacs: huge beat

  • revenue: $13.61 billion vs $11.68 billion
  • EPS: $14.92 vs $10.18
  • is anyone paying attention? Look at the actual results vs estimated;

Retail sales:

  • up 0.7% vs estimated down 0.2%;

Retail sales ex-autos:

  • up 0.8% vs up 0.5%

Supply chain shortages:

  • when you go out shopping today, notice that the bins are overflowing with pumpkins
  • overflowing with pumpkins
  • the only way pumpkins make it to the grocery stores: by truck
  • mostly by non-Teamster truck drivers
  • we'll come back to this later

Apple, Inc: at SeekingAlpha --

  • “Unleashed” event to unveil high-end Apple Silicon MacBook Pros.
  • Why the M1 was a stealth revolution.
  • How the next-generation Apple Silicon Macs will change everything.
  • Investor takeaways.

The "Unleashed" event had been widely expected for some time, so it came as virtually no surprise to anyone, yet one senses more excitement than for the iPhone 13 launch. The iPhone 13 series has, in many ways, turned out better than expected, both in performance, as well as sales. But it was still incremental.

The new MacBook Pros, on the other hand, will be truly new. They will feature a complete hardware redesign inside and out. The bodies will be thinned and lightened to take advantage of Apple Silicon's energy efficiency. New screens (in 14-inch and 16-inch sizes) are expected to feature mini-LED backlighting for improved contrast.

Most reports continue to refer to the Apple Silicon chip that will power these new Macs as the M1X. I personally doubt this. It's been nearly a year since the release of the first M1-powered Macs. Apple needs to convey more progress than just an incrementally improved M1, so I think the "M2" designation is likely.

This won't be just a marketing ploy. I expect the new M2 not only to feature more CPU performance cores (8 vs. the 4 of the M1) but a new design for the cores based on the A15 Bionic. From early performance testing of the iPhone 13, it's apparent that the A15 performance cores got a performance bump. As reported by Tom's Guide, the A15 in the iPhone 13 Pro scored over 20% better than the A14 in iPhone 12 Pro in the Geekbench 5 multicore test.

Graphics processing also is expected to improve with at least double the M1's 8 GPU cores. Other features of the A15 will likely be carried over as well, including an improved Neural Processing Unit and Image Signal Processor. The integrated memory, a unique feature of the M1, will likely get a speed bump and larger base configuration (16 GB vs. 8 GB in the M1).

This will be the pattern going forward. iPhone will introduce the latest Apple Silicon designs in a scaled-down chip, with M-series chips building on these designs and scaling them up for Mac use. Apple has to do this in order to make best use of its processor design and engineering resources.

Much more at the link. 

Moderna: investors had an opportunity; maybe two opportunities.

Netflix: absolutely blowing away the competition. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Bats: it's too bad this disappeared behind a paywall. I was able to read it last night; but now behind a paywall. Great article on bats and corona viruses. Link here.  

Nature has the article, but a bit more "difficult" to read, though this is pretty straightforward, written for an eighth-grader: The discovery of RaTG13 bat coronavirus in China suggested a high probability of a bat origin. 

I guess one can read tweets or read Nature. I know where the Reddit crowd is headed. LOL. Abstract here

Tesla and Netflix will be huge this quarter

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Pumpkins: when you go out shopping today, note the bins are overflowing with pumpkins, In our neighborhood grocery store, overflowing and selling for $5.00 apiece. How do pumpkins get to market?

  • Yup: by truck.
  • But I thought there was a truck shortage or a truck driver shortage.
  • How is that something as "unimportant" to one's existence that pumpkins are getting to market despite the supply chain shortage.
  • We'll come back to this later, but there are two huge issues with regard to the supply chain shortage:
    • one, a political issue; and,
    • two, a logistics issue.
  • We'll come back to this later.
  • I'll get a lot of pushback on this, also, but I know I'm right on this one, also. LOL. 


  • wow, I'm glad I'm fully invested. I would hate to be buying at the level;
  • will wait for pullback;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Norwegian air: no longer requires masked passengers or crews. I wonder if Norwegian air requires their pilots and crews to be vaccinated? 

Dow back above 35,000

Personal transportation costs: over at Schwa Nation.

Best business television:

  • 8:00 - 9:00 a.m. CT on CNBC: Jim Cramer, David Farber, Carl Quintanilla.
  • 4:00 - 6:00 p.m. CT on CNBC. Melissa Lee and panelists; Jim Cramer.

Final word from Jim Cramer this morning:

  • Ford can't meet demand for Ford Lincoln in China;
  • best-selling luxury car in China: the Ford Lincoln
  • profit margin comparable to BMW
  • this is where Ford is going to make its profit
  • Cramer? incredibly bullish;

Biden WH: Looking At Options -- October 15, 2021

Reuters or The Onion? The Babylon Bee?

From Reuters today, with a straight face:

President Joe Biden and the National Security Council are closely tracking the issue of rising oil prices and looking at options to improve energy supply around the country, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday.

“I would say that part is a supply issue...but part is also a logistics issue of being able to move supply around the country,” Psaki said.

Posted earlier:

Biden White House: looking at ways of moving "energy" around the US. I can't make this stuff up. Link to Reuters.

  • pipeline?
    • Keystone XL
  • CBR?
  • seriously, this suggests the WH is looking at ISO NE on a daily basis;
  • doesn't Bernie Sanders have a home or two in New England?

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- WTI Breaks Through $82 -- October 15, 2021

RBN Energy: if you aren't reading RBN Energy every morning ... well, what can I say? See below.

Market: being reported and repeated over and over this a.m. -- inflation numbers came in better than expected yesterday.

ISO NE: holy lutefisk! Early morning; balmy autumn Friday; quiet; but ISO NE prices already in the yellow (worse than green); headed toward red;

  • $130 / MWh
  • getting Biden WH attention, see below
    • if this were Texas, DC would not care;
    • but in NE -- oh, oh
  • without pipeline, NE, like California and Hawaii, becomes an "energy island"
  • natural gas + nuclear: 88%
  • hydro: 6%
  • renewable: 6%
  • indirect relationship between renewable contribution and total demand
  • currently spiking -- high all night (and no overnight EV charging yet) and now the spike begins at oh-dark-thirty;

ISO NY: doing better at $53 / MWh; link here.

  • mix:
    • dual fuel: 28%
    • natural gas: 29%
    • nuclear: 18%
    • hydro: 21%
    • solar: 0%
    • wind: 2%

WTI: breaks through $82

Biden White House: looking at ways of moving "energy" around the US. I can't make this stuff up. Link to Reuters.

  • pipeline?
    • Keystone XL
  • CBR?
  • seriously, this suggests the WH is looking at ISO NE on a daily basis;
  • doesn't Bernie Sanders have a home or two in New England?

Bitcoin: up, trading over 59,000; closing in on 59,500.

Virgin Atlantic: shares falling like a meteorite

  • not only is that not a space company, it's delaying future launches

Covid-19: #1 killer of Americans age 35 to 54 last month; #2 overall; link here.

  • this is interesting on so many levels:
  • reminder: time to look at the CDC's monthly surveillance report;
    • the data is simply bizarre
    • diagnosis and classification of flu-like illnesses during the plague year (2020) resulted in a complete mess for this data

Supply chain shortages: a meme that needs attention; more on this later if I don't forget.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2316606859

No wells coming off confidential list.

RBN Energy: the battle over Questar Pipeline's natural gas infrastructure in the Rockies. Wow, wow, wow. A must-read. Archived

Billionaire Warren Buffett tried to buy it but later bowed out. Billionaire Carl Icahn thinks buying it is a dumb idea — and has launched a tender offer and proxy fight to stop it. The long and winding road leading Southwest Gas Holdings to its planned $1.975 billion acquisition of Questar Pipeline from Dominion Energy started more than a year ago and touches on a number of hot-button topics in today’s energy industry: the divestiture of natural gas assets, the ongoing energy transition, concerns about antitrust regulations, activist investors, and infrastructure. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the sale itself, the current state of natural gas production and pipelines in the Rocky Mountains, and how that gas fits into the nationwide picture.

The made-for-HBO story behind the Questar Pipeline sale begins with Dominion Energy’s decision to sell a broader set of its natural gas transmission and storage assets to Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Energy in July 2020. The $9.7 billion deal, which included the assumption of $5.7 billion in debt, was part of Dominion’s plan to focus more on renewable generation and move toward its goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions across all its operations by 2050. Dominion said at the time that it expected up to 90% of its future earnings would come from its state-regulated electric and gas utilities in North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Virginia, and Utah. The deal also included a 25% ownership interest in the company’s Cove Point LNG terminal in Maryland, as well as assets in Appalachia.