Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Gasoline Stocks Plummet -- Platts, Rigzone


April 25, 2013, 7:26: CNBC will have a segment on rising oil prices. CEO of Gulf Oil: price for gasoline will continue to go down; winter grade to summer grade switch. Not a demand-led drop; clearing out winter-grade stock to make room for summer-grade stock. Demand is down 2%. Production is strong. Gasoline prices could go below $3/gallon by Labor Day. Industry looking for relief from Jones Act (adds 10 to 15 cents/gallon). Industry looking for relaxation on states' red tape hindering CNG and LNG stations. Administration's attitude toward the industry: fundamental dislike of oil and gas industry; fundamental lack of understanding of commodity trading. Keystone XL would eventually drop price of gasoline by about 30 cents/gallon.

Original Post
Rigzone is reporting:
Oil futures shot to their highest price in almost two weeks Wednesday, after a closely watched report said gasoline demand rose to its highest level in more than five months.

The weekly report from the Energy Information Administration also showed oil stockpiles last week rose less than expected, while gasoline inventories fell sharply.
"We're in positive territory" year over year, said Gareth Lewis-Davies, analyst at BNP Paribas. "This is not typical of what we've seen." 
Analysts expect gasoline demand to continue rising in the coming months as the summer driving season kicks in. That should trigger an increased need of crude oil from refiners. European refiners are also expected to exit a period of prolonged maintenance in the coming weeks that could contribute to demand.
No explanation how oil supplies rise, but gasoline supplies plummet.

Platts is reporting:
U.S. gasoline inventories plunged 3.93 million barrels during the week ended April 19 to 217.8 million barrels, the lowest level since the week ended December 7, according to data just released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Wednesday. Analysts polled by Platts on Monday had expected a 700,000-barrel decline in U.S. gasoline inventories.

The drop in inventories came amid a sharp jump in implied demand for the fuel, which rose 366,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 8.750 million b/d, even as production ticked upward by 93,000 b/d to 8.995 million b/d.
I've commented often on deltas between analysts' expectations/estimates and actual results, but this really defies ... I don't know what it defies, but it must defy something. A 700K decline is quite different than a 4 million-barrel decline. Wow.

Oil stocks increased; see linked article.

How does one explain increased oil stocks, but plummeting gasoline stocks? Wrong kind of oil (heavy vs light) in the pipeline for refineries. 

Bakken Well Costs

From the Hess 1Q13 earnings transcript:
Well cost for the first quarter averaged $8.6 million per well, down 36% from $13.4 million per well in the first quarter of 2012 and down from $9 million per well in the fourth quarter of 2013.
Not trivial.
Back on January 24, 2010:
This may or may not be important in the future as a trend (cost and time to drill a horizontal Bakken well), but I don't want to lose the link. If you scroll to the top of that link, Slawson reports that it has put in a horizontal well in 16 days and for less than $3 million. The rule of thumb for a horizontal well in North Dakota: 30 days (it used to be 45 days) and $4 - 6 million.
I believe wells in 2010 were generally short laterals.

I recall many discussions over the past two years that a long lateral at $10 million was about the same as a short lateral for $5 million. So, when I see the Hess 1Q13 quote of $8.6 million per well in 2013, I find it quite interesting. Mike Filloon recently said that well costs were coming down faster than folks generally realized.

For Investors Only: Tomorrow Morning, Before Market Open: Carbo Ceramics (90 cents) Reports

... and COP ($1.39) ....

... and XOM ($2.04) ....

.... and NBL ($1.19) ....

UPS ($1.01) will be the big story on CNBC.

All the above will be reporting before market open.

KEG (Key Energy Services, 4 cents) will report after market close.

This list is provided by Yahoo Earnings Calendar which has been known to have errors.


Noble Energy beats by $0.23, beats on revs: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.48 per share, $0.23 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.25; revenues rose 5.1% year/year to $1.14 bln vs the $1.09 bln consensus. 

CARBO Ceramics misses by $0.14, misses on revs (CRR): Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.76 per share, $0.14 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.90; revenues fell 9.5% year/year to $147.7 mln vs the $153.36 mln consensus.

UPS beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY13 EPS guidance: Reports Q1 (Mar) adj. earnings of $1.04 per share, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.02; revenues rose 2.3% year/year to $13.43 bln vs the $13.43 bln consensus. The quarter benefited from a stronger than expected post-holiday season in January as UPS e-commerce solutions resonated with customers. In the U.S. Domestic segment, daily package volume grew 4.4% and operating profit improved 9%.

Occidental Petro beats by $0.14, misses on revs: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.69 per share, $0.14 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.55; revenues fell 6.3% year/year to $5.87 bln vs the $6.47 bln consensus. Our Q1 domestic production of 478,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, of which 342,000 barrels per day were liquids, set a record for the tenth consecutive quarter. Our total company production of 763,000 barrels of oil equivalent in Q1 of 2013 was 8,000 barrels higher than production in first quarter of 2012.

XOM: raises dividend from 57 cents to 63 cents. From Reuters: First-quarter profit for the world's largest publicly traded oil company totaled $9.5 billion, or $2.12 per share, compared with $9.45 billion, or $2 per share, a year earlier. Analysts, on average, expected the Irving, Texas, company to report a profit of $2.05 per share. From Yahoo!Finance, In-Play: Exxon Mobil beats by $0.07 (XOM) 89.43 : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $2.12 per share, $0.07 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $2.05; revenues fell 12.3% year/year to $108.81 bln vs the $125.86 bln consensus.

 ConocoPhillips reports EPS in-line: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.42 per share, excluding items, in-line with the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate consensus of $1.42.

Hess 1Q13 Transcript -- It's All About The Bakken


Some excerpts regarding the Bakken:
Lastly, we are continuing to make excellent progress toward delivering our production growth forecast of 5% to 8% per year compounded annually. To that end, net production from the Bakken Shale oil play in North Dakota, our principal engine of growth, averaged 65,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the first quarter, an increase of 55% over the year ago quarter. We continue to forecast Bakken production this year to average between 64,000 and 70,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Our average well cost from drilling the Bakken in the first quarter was $8.6 million, a decline of 36% from the first quarter last year and a continuation of a steady downward trend since the beginning of 2012. We believe our operating performance in the Bakken ranks among the best.

We continue to make excellent progress towards our mid-decade goal of achieving net production of 120,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from the Bakken. First quarter net production was 65,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 55% from the first quarter of 2012 and in line with our previous guidance for 2013.
As a result of our transition to pad drilling, as previously discussed, production will be relatively flat through May as we continue to build the inventory of drilled but not completed wells. Production will increase substantially in the second half of 2013 as we ramp up our completion activity. We remain confident in our 2013 Bakken production forecast of between 64,000 and 70,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
In terms of individual Bakken well performance, we are focused on driving high returns, which, as you know, is a function of both well cost and well productivity. Well cost for the first quarter averaged $8.6 million per well, down 36% from $13.4 million per well in the first quarter of 2012 and down from $9 million per well in the fourth quarter of 2013.
The continued quarter-and-quarter in cost has been driven by our application of Lean manufacturing techniques. Our productivity continues to be the highest in industry, as 10 of the top 25 wells in the North Dakota Bakken play in 2012 were Hess wells. Therefore, considering well cost and productivity coupled with higher margins from our infrastructure, we believe we're one of the most competitive Bakken operators, and there is much more optimization to come.
Zacks: the Bakken is the reason for Hess' success!
In the reported quarter, Exploration and Production (E&P) business posted profits of $1,286 million which more than doubled from the year-earlier profit of $635 million.
Quarterly hydrocarbon production was 389 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOE/d), down 2.0% year over year. Lower production was due to the impact of asset sales and lower production from the Valhall Field in Norway. This was partially offset by higher Bakken production year over year.

For Newbies: A Nice Overview of the Bakken -- E&P Magazine

E & P Magazine provided a nice overview/history of the Williston Basin Bakken in its March 1, 2013, issue.

It begins:
In less than a decade, increased production, takeaway capacities, and operator effort in the Bakken have bumped North Dakota up in the rankings to become the second leading state in crude oil production.
In his 2005 State of the State address, US Senator John Hoeven, then North Dakota governor, said the state’s “single greatest challenge is the ability to move power to markets outside of North Dakota.” Although at the time he was referring to the state’s abundance of coal and wind energy and the creation of a transmission agency to manage the use of both, it was in some ways prophetic.
It's a great overview; recommended reading.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Thursday

Late morning Thursday; these are not posted.

21685, 654, OXY USA, Scott 2-7-6H-143-95, Murphy Creek, t9/12; cum 39K 2/13;
23485, 1,044, Hess, SC-Scanlan-153-98-1720H-3, Truax, t3/12; cum 8K 2/13;
23621, 674, G3 Operating, Berg 1-19-18H, Good Luck, t2/13; cum 9K 2/13;
23795, drl, KOG, Smokey 3-30-18-3HA, Pembroke,
23931, drl, Aeon Energy, Lillie Farms 11-10H, North Maxbass,
23974, drl, Statoil, Rose 12-13 7H, Avoca,


 21685, see above, OXY USA, Scott 2-7-6H-143-95, Murphy Creek; on NG line:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Why Has There Been So Much Snow This Spring? Global Cooling?

Yahoo News is asking:
Spring has gotten off to a colder- and snowier-than-average start in parts of the United States, particularly in the eastern Rockies and Upper Midwest.
Duluth, Minn., for example, has seen 51 inches (130 centimeters) of snow this April. That's not only the most snow the town has seen in any April — breaking the old mark of 31.6 inches (80 cm) — but the most snow the town has received in any month, ever, according to government records. As of Monday (April 22), a total of 995 snowfall records have also been broken so far this month, according to AccuWeather. Over the same time period last year, 195 snowfall records had been broken.
More than 91 percent of the upper Midwest also has snow on the ground as of today (April 24), meteorologist Jason Samenow wrote at the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang blog. "Snow cover in the previous 10 years on this date hasn't even come close to reaching this extent (ranging from 19 percent to much lower)," he wrote.
So why has spring failed to take hold? Blame the jet stream.
Had it been a warmer, less snowier spring than usual, the question would have been, why has spring been so warm and so less snowier than usual. And the answer would have been: anthropogenic global warming.

Can't have it both ways.

Whiting Beats By 4 Cents

Yahoo!Finance In-Play is reporting:
Whiting Petroleum beats by $0.04, beats on revs : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.94 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.90; revenues rose 8.8% year/year to $613.4 mln vs the $590.09 mln consensus.

Seventeen (17) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; Statoil With Two Huge Wells in Banks Oil Field; A Madison Well, After 53 Years Of Faithful Service Is Retired After Producing 432,000 Bbls (The Well Will Be Given A Gold Watch)

Active rigs: 187 (steady)

Seventeen (17) new permits --
  • Operators: Whiting (6), Hess (3), Triangle (2), Fram Operating (2), XTO (2), CLR, Zenergy
  • Fields: Williston (Williams), South Greene (Renville), South Meadow (Williams), Alkali Creek (Mountrail), Harding (McKenzie), Zenith (Stark), Bell (Stark(, Norma (Renville), Beaver Lodge (Williams)
  • Comments: Whiting has a permit for a wildcat in Williams County
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Producing wells now completed:
  • 15046, 11, Petro-Hunt/Flying J Oil & Gas, Zabolotny 8-4, a Duperow well, Little Knife, this was a Red River well that produced 65K, completed back in 2001; now it's a Duperow well;
  • 22578, 3,906, Statoil, Gunderson 15-22 3H, Banks, t3/13; cum --
  • 22729, 2,008, Statoil, Alger State 16-21 2TFH, Banks, t3/13; cum --
Producer abandoned:
  • 02543, PNA/153, Condor/Carter Oil, Frederickson Bnd 2-29 1, a Madison well, t11/60; cum 432K 9/11;

Random Thought on CBR And The Keystone


Later, 7:56 pm: Wow, I am happy that "blogger" application time-stamps my posts. I can't make this stuff up. Just minutes after posting the note below, Don sends me this story. Reuters is reporting:
Using trains to move heavy crude oil out of Western Canada would be a poor alternative to the controversial Keystone XL pipeline, Canada's top energy official said on Wednesday, and a rail-only plan would likely dent future oil sands development.
U.S. officials are weighing whether to approve construction of the proposed Keystone pipeline that could deliver as much as 830,000 barrels a day of mostly Canadian and some U.S. crude oil to refiners in Texas and Louisiana.
Joe Oliver, Canada's natural resources minister, said costs and logistical challenges make crude-by-rail a poor second choice for oil sands producers trying to reach the U.S. Gulf Coast.
"Poor second choice." Give me a break. If the Keystone XL is killed, and the Canadian activists stop the pipeline through the Rocky Mountains, and French-Canadian activists stop an alternate pipeline to Montreal, rail becomes the ONLY choice. A poor choice it may be, but we're getting to the point where one needs to decide: Alberta bust or CBR?

Original Post

A reader suggested.

Pie in the sky? Possible?

Keystone XL: 850,000 bopd proposed.

Unit train: about 85,000 bbls/unit train

CBR: about 170,000 bopd loading capacity current max in North Dakota; typical, closer to 85,000 over one or two days, I suppose

A reader suggested. Don't laugh at me. But thinking out loud.

Would Warren Buffett/BNSF, Canadian Pacific, and TransCanada consider a mega-CBR facility on both sides of the US-Canadian border?

Canadian Pacific has the track. Right through the Bakken. And completely avoids Nebraska.

Ten unit trains daily across the border. A "ten 100-unit train shuttle." With all the money they would be making, they could make the train a subway. The North Sea Chunnel is 31 miles long; the Japanese Chunnel is almost 34 miles long.

The Berlin Airlift comes to mind.

Random Update On The Cottonwood Oil Field

A reader asked if there was any new pad drilling in 157-92 in the Cottonwood oil field. I provided the answer at the Cottonwood oil field post, but it's an important development, so I am re-posting it here:

Prior to this 4-well pad, to the best of my knowledge there was only one multi-well pad in the Cottonwood, and I hardly consider it a multi-well pad: just two wells, one horizontal going south and one horizontal going north.

But the 4-well multi-well pad in section 3-157-92 is notable. One rig is one site; two others are on DRL status; and the fourth, LOC:
  • 23804, drl, Oasis, Lars 5792 13-3H, Three Forks, Cottonwood, sections 3/10 (running south)
  • 25135, drl, Oasis, Nels 5792 13-3T, Cottonwood, sections 3/10 (running south)
  • 25136, drl, Oasis, Beth 5792 13-3B, middle Bakken, Cottonwood,
    sections 3/10 (running south)
  • 25230, loc, Oasis, Sara 5792 13-3B, middle Bakken, Cottonwood, sections 3/10 (running south)
The Cottonwood has an interesting back story that has been discussed several times in the past. This multi-well pad in the Cottonwood is notable. There is a lot of discussion elsewhere about the economic viability of some of these "smaller" oil wells and some less productive fields. I've always thought these discussions were premature. Some of the discussions were taking place as early as 2009, when the Bakken boom in North Dakota had hardly taken off. I found it interesting/surprising/crazy/short-sighted/whatever that folks were already talking about the viability of some of these Bakken wells.

The Cottonwood oil field, from my perspective, has not been a particularly noteworthy/successful/whatever oil field in the Bakken compared to others (especially compared to the Sanish or the Parshall, for example). In fact, after the first dozen or so wells I really thought there would not be all that much activity in the Cottonwood.

I am pleasantly surprised.

Based on the siting it looks like the wells will all run south, and that's what the well files confirm.

Oasis wouldn't be drilling a four-well pad if it didn't make financial sense. So, to see a four-well pad in the Cottonwood is very encouraging.

Like The Eveready Bunny, The Fisker Story Just Keeps Going And Going And Going

Yahoo!Finance is reporting:
For a few months in 2012, Bruce Simon, the chief executive of gourmet food retailer Omaha Steaks International Inc., drove a $100,000 plug-in hybrid electric car known as the Fisker Karma. No longer.
Mr. Simon says his car broke down four times over the span of a few months. Each time, Fisker Automotive Inc. picked it up and sent it by trailer from his home in Omaha, Neb., to a dealer in Minneapolis.
The Karma was "so vulnerable to software errors, and the parts used were of such poor quality that eventually I insisted they take the car back and return my purchase price, which they did," he says. "It's a real shame, the car itself was beautiful."
The near collapse of the Anaheim, Calif., company—it missed a loan payment on Monday, earlier dismissed most of its staff and has hired bankruptcy advisors—comes as affluent buyers like Mr. Simon have turned away from the once promising startup and falling gasoline prices have chipped away at demand for electric cars.
Barring a last-minute rescue, Fisker is poised to become another DeLorean Motor Co. or Tucker Corp., a symbol of the difficulties of creating entirely new car companies. Unlike those others, it also represents one of the most prominent failures of the government's use of public funds to wean American industry from fossil fuels—and of how that government interest pushed Fisker to reach too far.
I am posting the story for two reasons: a) the Fisker is an important story; many, many story lines; and, b) I try to order Omaha Steaks at least once a month (for my younger daughter/son-in-law or for my granddaughters).

Someday I will do a cost analysis of Omaha Steaks vs local supermarket offerings, but needles to say, Omaha Steaks is great at marketing; has exceptionally good food; and, always delivers on time. 

What We'll Be Talking About This Summer (2013) In The Bakken

This summer this is what we will be talking about:
  • The "Helms Surge"
  • A trillion-barrel reservoir
  • The 2013 USGS assessment of the Bakken
  • A miserable spring: spring will be delayed: sloppy, muddy roads; road restrictions prolonged
  • Rig count going over 200 
  • 24 wells on 2560-acre spacing units; 12-well pads; walking rigs
  • the Keystone XL

It's impossible for me to put the trillion-barrel reservoir into perspective, comparing it to other oil plays around the world. There are too many variables: basins vs fields; light oil vs heavy oil; liquid vs gas, variable total organic content (TOC). For me, the Bakken is what it is. I no longer need to compare it to other plays. I will continue to post updates about other plays because it helps me understand the Bakken and put the Bakken into perspective.


It goes without saying that I have a huge amount of respect for the relationship among the citizens of North Dakota, the elected state officials, and the NDIC.  [In the political arena, I have one hero: Byron Dorgan.] The citizens and state leaders allowed a significant portion of western North Dakota to be a laboratory for unconventional/tight oil exploration and production. A lot of decisions were probably made on the fly based on best available understanding of the geology. Understanding the geology continues to evolve.

Constrained predominantly by workforce, it now becomes apparent how incredibly fast the infrastructure went in to accelerate development. That last comment is based on fact. To the best of my knowledge, in 2009, there were no CBR terminals in North Dakota, and no one outside the industry was talking about CBR terminals anywhere in the states as a matter of daily conversation. Today, there are at least twenty CBR terminals in North Dakota, and CBR terminals from Canada to Mexico are a daily news item. We now find out this doesn't just happen. Bakken operators are now talking about railing oil to the Port of Vancouver, Oregon, and then carrying the oil by ship down the coast to California.

It would be faster, less expensive, and more convenient to rail directly to California but the permitting process for new CBR terminals in California is too onerous to consider. [My hunch is that the oil companies would be willing to go through the onerous permitting procedure but do not want to make this issue just one more issue for activists to lobby against. They saw what happened to the Keystone XL.]

The Trillion-Barrel Reservoir

CLR is testing lower benches of the Three Forks. This has been covered in multiple postings starting back in August of 2012.

It is difficult to find all those postings, so I'm bringing them forward, with some updates.

First, back in August, 2012, it was noted that CLR, in a corporate presentation, was suggesting a 903-billion-barrel-original-oil-in-place-Bakken-source-rock reservoir. This was based on new estimates of the oil reservoirs in the lower benches of the Three Forks. New estimates of the oil reservoirs in the Three Forks increased the total estimate to 903 billion barrels. Rounding, of course, takes us to 900 billion bbls, but that's close enough to one trillion for me. I assume this estimate is controversial. Even Leigh Price had the estimate in the 500-billion range.

Following that corporate presentation, CLR announced its intentions to test the lower benches of the Three Forks with the Charlotte wells in the Banks oil field, one of the sweet spots in the center of the Bakken.

In January, 2013, I posted a CLR graphic and updated the Charlotte wells with information known up to that point.

This was the graphic:

By the way: not mentioned before, but at least one Charlotte well is on 4-section spacing, on a stand-up 2560-acre spacing unit; sections 15, 22, 27, and 34.

The narrative has been updated (one can compare this with the original at the link):

 The "Charlotte" wells are sited in either section 22 or 27-152-99, Banks, but all probably drilling 22/15-152-99:
  • 19918, 496, Charlotte 1-22H, middle Bakken, SWSE 22-152-99; Banks, 30 stages; 2.5 million lbs; t6/11; cum 150K 10/12; total depth: 21,090 feet;
  • 23664, 657, Charlotte 3-22H, Banks, TF3, SESE 22-152N-99W, t11/12; cum 30K 2/13; 30 stages; 2.9 million lbs; 55% sand; [Update: see press release, December 3, 2012]
  • 21128, 692, Charlotte 2-22H, Banks, TF2, SWSW 22-152-99; 30 stages; 2.3 million lbs; t10/11; cum 87K 2/13; total depth: 21,358 feet; 2-section spacing; 30 stages; 2.28 million lbs; "sand frac"; the target was the "Lower Three Forks" without more specificity.
  • 23612, A-->DRL, Charlotte 4-22H, TF1, Banks; according to the file report, the target was 19 - 33' under the top of the Middle Bakken; drilling report: the target landing point was 52' below the top of the TF; 4-section spacing;
  • 23608, loc --> conf, Charlotte 5-22H, Banks, ?TF4
From the geological summary section of the well file for #23664:
The objective of the Continental Resources Charlotte 3-22H was to successfully drill a horizontal production well into the Devonian age Three Forks "Third Bench" siltstone/dolomite in an effort to investigate the targeted stratum as an oil-bearing, gas producing zone of the Three Forks formation.

The well was placed at a surface location 200' FSL and 990 FEL, Section 22, T152N R99W.

Drilling was successfully completed on the Charlotte on October 4, 2012, at a bottom-hole location of 229' FNL and 1280' FEL, Section 15, T152N R99W, in McKenzie County, North Dakota.

Total depth: 21,325'.
From the geological conclusions section of the well file for #23664:
The conclusions section was quite long and I will paraphrase: a) from a drilling standpoint, the objectives were met, but drilling was very, very difficult, particularly near the bottom of the third bench stratum; b) from a geological standpoint, it appears the jury is still out how good the well will be. At least that's how I interpreted the long narrative.
What does this all mean?

What does this all mean? At this point, we know this: CLR has successfully drilled into the deepest formation in the Bakken-rock-sourced-pool, the lower Three Forks, specifically the "Third Bench."

KXNet is reporting:
"This is one of those signposts in the Bakken Petroleum System, one of those significant wells that everybody will look back to and say that was a major event in terms of figuring out the Bakken Petroleum System," says North Dakota Oil and Gas Director Lynn Helms.
The well Helms is talking about is a Continental Well like the one you see here. It's called the Charlotte 2-22 (sic, and I believe that's an error; should be the Charlotte 3-22, but I could be wrong) and it's in McKenzie County just northwest of Watford City.
It's the first well to have success drilling down to what's called the third bench. It's the deepest anyone has drilled and recovered significant oil in the Bakken.
"If this covers a significant aerial extent, then were not just talking about billions of more recoverable barrels in the USGS assessment or in our assessment, we're also talking about extending the development phase of this Bakken/Three Forks development which now sits at about eighteen years of development drilling, it could be extended by decades if there are additional benches that have to be drilled," says Helms.
  • very, very difficult to drill in the TF3 based on this first well
  • nice initial production, but EUR yet to be determined (i.e., profitability)
  • does not prove the three benches are payzones throughout the Bakken
USGS Survey later this summer

By the way, in the KXNet linked article, Lynn Helms provided another important data point.  I had completely forgotten this:
The new USGS survey was scheduled to be released by the end of 2013. Lynn Helms suggested that the survey could be released early, in mid-2013. 


Disclaimer: some of the information above is opinion and may be completely wrong. There is plenty of source material to review to cross-check. I did update the information on this page from an earlier post.

For Investors Only: Ford Earnings Nice; Boeing Earnings Huge

  • article
  • beat on top and bottom lines
  • 41 cents vs 37 cents
  • North America: best quarter ever
  • Europe: is still their problem; a loss of $462 million; that's an increase of $313 million over last year
  • margin 5.2 vs 6.4 (not good) but they still beat expectations on top and bottom lines
  • no change in guidance; still "working" on European issues; they say they are on track in Europe
  • beat on top and bottom lines
  • $1.73 vs $1.49
  • Boeing: huge increase in earnings
  • operating cash flow this year -- 524 million; last year the operation cash flow -- $837 million
  • overall margin this quarter: 9.9%
  • commercial margin: 11.4%
  • no one-time charge over the battery issue which really surprised analysts; some analysts think that still needs to be done
  • no change in guidance
  • deliveries not changing
  • some analysts worried about the sequester; turned out not to be an issue

Wednesday Morning Links

Active rigs: 188 (nice)

RBN Energy: CBR at the Gulf Coast
In the short term midstream companies with crude-by-rail unloading terminals at the Gulf Coast can deliver cheaper light sweet crudes from the Midwest and West Texas. Once new pipelines come online to deliver that crude direct to Houston that price advantage will disappear. At that point rail terminal operators need to diversify their business to survive.  Today we look at the fate of Texas Gulf Coast rail terminal operators.
WSJ Links

Section D (Personal Journal):

Section C (Money & Investing):

Section B (Marketplace):
How the wheels came off for Fisher. A stand-alone post elsewhere. 

Section A:
The rainy-day fund came to light when several lawmakers who are also accountants began digging into the system's books and found hundreds of cash reserve accounts that weren't readily discernible in the budget. The exposure of the money—spread across the system's 26 campuses—prompted a legislative hearing Tuesday in which lawmakers spent two hours dressing down UW System President Kevin Reilly.
David Giroux, the spokesman for the university system, said that while "there is understandable concern about why these cash balances have grown," the system's leaders think it is prudent to maintain a hedge against the increasing volatility of educational funding. A shrinking slice—now less than 20%—of the school's roughly $5 billion budget is supplied by the state. As administrators have necessarily grown more entrepreneurial in their hunt for money, they have kept a greater reserve on hand in case the school hits a rough patch, he said.
Democratic strategists, lobbyists and some Capitol Hill aides see last week's defeat of the gun-bill amendments as a worrisome sign that Mr. Obama hasn't found a way to bridge the partisan divide in Congress—or even that he has a sufficiently firm hold on the more conservative members of his own party.