Thursday, April 9, 2020

Notes From All Over, The Evening Edition -- April 9, 2020

I've hit a wall.

I couldn't possibly be in a better mood but I'm worn out -- mentally. But I will easily recover by tomorrow morning.

If there is one video that defined the previous administration -- and actually the whole mindset of his party in every way, shape, and form --


Some people are pessimists; some are optimists.

Jimmy Carter? Cardigan sweaters. 

Hand sanitizer? A month ago, one couldn't find any. Today, everyone is making hand sanitizer; there is such a glut that it's being sold at half price, and it's available by the gross (a dozen dozen or 144 items) if you need that much. Wuhan flu masks? It turns out women at home are making cloth masks that meet CDC recommendations. Who knew? Cost? A couple of pennies. FDA-approved, one-time use masks? $15 or more.  And apparently the cloth masks are just as effective. Ventilators? There's a surplus. Military hospitals? Washington state just dismantled the one that was just completed earlier this week.

Does anyone really think public schools will open next fall on schedule? The reason I ask: no one has been able to articulate "the strategy." "Sheltering-in-place" and wearing homemade masks are tactics to "flatten the curve" but it's not a strategy. I really don't know if the CDC has articulated a strategy.

From an unsourced internet source:
Strategy generally involves setting goals, determining actions to achieve the goals, and mobilizing resources to execute the actions. A strategy describes how the ends (goals) will be achieved by the means (resources). ... It involves activities such as strategic planning and strategic thinking.
Back to oil.

A reader just sent me a link to a most interesting Reuters article. It answers the question (at least it answers the question for me): why did OPEC+ come to an agreement so quickly?

When I get my energy back (no pun intended), I'll post the link, and commentary. But that's an important question: why did OPEC+ come to an agreement so quickly? Remember: the EIA two days ago predicted that OPEC+  would not come to an agreement to make any cuts in production. What happened? What changed?

Signing off for the night. Time for reading; time for music; time for TCM. All mobile devices now being charged: one old iPad; one new iPad; one iPhone; one MacBook Air.

Perhaps This Is Where I Begin The Discussion Of Geologic Time With Sophia -- April 9, 2020

Wow, talk about an incredible day. I've made great headway on re-reading the Annotated Wuthering Heights, and The Discovery of Middle Earth, by Graham Robb. In addition, Sophia and I reviewed a bit of evolution (LOL).

A huge part of evolution is knowing all the ages, epochs, periods, eras, eons, and supereons.

I guess we're currently in the Holocene epoch, which has just begun.

To date there have been three named ages of the Holocene epoch, most recent to oldest: Meghalayan; Northgrippian; and, Greenlandian.

Now, we have entered the fourth age. This is quite incredible. This might be one of the longest single blog posts I have ever seen. It is incredible. I hope it never disappears behind a paywall or lost entirely some other way. Link here.

It's a keeper.

The fourth age of the Holocene epoch, the Age of Shibboliths.
Shibbolithic /ʃɪbəlˈiθik/ n.
: the current geological age, regarded as the first of the Anthropocene epoch and distinguished by the hegemony of unconvincing impostors in the scholarly and scientific academies.
Source: ‘Shibbolithic.’ Merriam-Webster, n.d. Web. 1 Apr. 2020.

Misreading The Tea Leaves -- April 9, 2020

Posted earlier today from Rigzone, the EIA STEO released earlier this week, Tuesday, April 7, 2020.

That was two days ago.

This is today:

Breakfast of Champions: Cake

This is actually pretty funny. Life comes full circle. The first love of my life -- far away and long ago -- often had cake for breakfast, noting that cake had eggs, flour, sugar, milk -- all the things one normally has for breakfast. LOL.

With chocolate frosting.

Atmospheric CO2 -- March, 2020 -- Unchanged Month-Over-Month

March, 2020, link here:

February, 2020, link here: 414.11 parts per million.

March, 2019, link here: 411.97 parts per million.

Gas Buddy

Damn The Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead! CLR With Seven More Permits --April 9, 2020

New permits, #37502 - #37508, inclusive --
  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Dimmick Lake
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for eight more wells on the Miles/Kennedy pad in SENE 6-150-96, Dimmick Lake oil field;
    • the Miles-Kennedy pad is tracked here;
    • I believe there are already sixteen (16) Miles-Kennedy wells in this drilling unit (and section line wells with 2560-acre spacing;

Why Not A Tax Holiday For Calendar Year 2020 For All Those Earning Less Than $100,000 / $200,000 Married Couples? -- April 9, 2020

Link here.

And if US Congress wants to stop that, that's fine. Go for it!

Wuhan Flu

Amazon: Yesterday I mentioned that, in addition to UPS, USPS, FedEx, and Amazon Prime vans, I saw a person driving a Budget rental van delivering packages. Today, I saw a beautiful, brand-new, shiny Hertz rental mini-van delivering Amazon package. 

USAA: sent a letter to all (?) its customers telling them the company was "rebating" a portion of their monthly premiums. The company is "making so much money" with so much less driving, the company will "rebate" a portion of their monthly premiums. This is in addition to USAA's annual distribution to all customers.

Turning point: I just took a drive up Texas Highway 121 North of Grapevine to see how things looked. Traffic was significantly heavier than it was a week ago. It looked a lot like spring break when all schools were off for a week or so. A bit less traffic than that, but a lot more than I expected.

Based on "headline" news and what Governor Cuomo is now complaining about, everything suggests we've hit the tipping point with regard to Wuhan flu.

Stacy Furniture, Grapevine, TX: going the extra mile to get my recent purchase delivered. I am truly very, very impressed. 

Cuts -- April 9, 2020


Later, 5:32 p.m. CT: OPEC+ confirms cut of 10 million bopd in May, June, 2020. Will US see another one or two million of decreased production?

Original Post

OPEC+ rumorsLink here.
  • Cuts could be as large as 20M bbl/day, Reuters reports, citing an unidentified Russian source and an OPEC source. 
Natural gas fill rate, link here.

From RBN Energy the other day:

In line with my thoughts about Oasis.
The Literature Page

Middle Earth.
Tolkien first used the term "Middle-earth" in the early 1930's in place of the earlier terms "Great Lands", "Outer Lands", and "Hither Lands" to describe the same region in his stories.
"Middle-earth" is specifically intended to describe the lands east of the Great Sea (Belegaer), thus excluding Aman, but including Harad and other mortal lands not visited in Tolkien's stories.
Many people apply the name to the entirety of Tolkien's world or exclusively to the lands described in The Hobbit, The Lord of the Rings, and The Silmarillion.
In ancient Germanic and mythology, the universe was believed to consist of multiple interconnected physical worlds (in Nordic mythology, in West Germanic and English mythology).
The world of Men, the Middle-earth, lay in the centre of this universe.
The lands of Elves, gods, and Giants lay across an encircling sea.
The land of the Dead lay beneath the Middle-earth. A rainbow bridge, Bifrost Bridge, extended from Middle-earth to Asgard across the sea. An outer sea encircled the seven other worlds (Vanaheim, Asgard, Alfheim, Svartalfheim, Muspellheim, Niflheim, and Jotunheim).
In this conception, a "world" was more equivalent to a racial homeland than a physically separate world.
Bird Watching

Random Update: The CLR Weydahl Wells In Corral Creek -- April 9, 2020

Remember that meme that daughter wells don't do as well as the parent wells? Hold that thought:
  • example, three generations:
    • grand-daughter: about a year to get to 271K bbls crude oil cumulative;
    • daughter: about six years to get to 372K bbls crude oil cumulative;
    • parent: about about thirteen years to got to 350K bbls crude oil cumulative
  • example, three generations
    • grand-daughter: 32813, 1,978, CLR, State Wehdal 9-36H, Corral Creek, t12/18; cum 271K 2/20;
    • daughter: 29555, 1,497, CLR, State Weydahl 44-36H, Corral Creek; t8/13; cum 372K 2/20;
    • parent: 16510, 1,082, CLR, State Weydahl 44-36H, t4/07, Corral Creek; t4/07; cum 350K 2/20;
The CLR Weydahl / Brandvik wells are tracked here.

Let's update the Weydahl wells. Again, huge results and Bakken lore.

The wells:
  • 32819, 1,392, CLR, State Weydahl, 11-36H, Corral Creek, t12/18; cum 254K 2/20;
  • 32818, 1,176, CLR, State Weydahl 10-36H2, Corral Creek, t12/18; cum 291K 2/20;
  • 32813, 1,978, CLR, State Wehdal 9-36H, Corral Creek, t12/18; cum 271K 2/20;
  • 32812, 2,098, CLR, State Weydahl 8-36H1, Corral Creek, t12/18; cum 397K 2/20;
  • 30364, 2,988, CLR, State Weydahl 7-36H2, Corral Creek, t1/19; cum 193K 2/20;
  • 30363, 2,446, CLR, State Weydahl 6-36H, Corral Creek, t1/19; cum 130K 2/20;
  • 30362, 2,575, CLR, State Weydahl 5-36H1, Corral Creek, t1/19; cum 363K 2/20;
  • 29555, 1,497, CLR, State Weydahl 44-36H, Corral Creek; t8/13; cum 372K 2/20;
  • 23786, 691, CLR, State Weydahl 2-36H, Corral Creek; t8/13; cum 381K 2/20;
  • 23785, 400, CLR, State Weydahl 3-36H1, t4/07, Corral Creek; t4/07; cum 381K 2/20;
  • 16510, 1,082, CLR, State Weydahl 44-36H, t4/07, Corral Creek; t4/07; cum 350K 2/20;
Halo effect, that dreaded Bakken decline? #16510:
  • back in 2017;
  • a year later, 20218:
  • a year later, 2019:

Halo effect, dreaded Bakken delince? #23785:

Halo effect? That dreaded Bakken decline? #23786
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Three formations:
  • 32819, 1,392, CLR, State Weydahl, 11-36H, Corral Creek, t12/18; cum 254K 2/20;
  • 32818, 1,176, CLR, State Weydahl 10-36H2, Corral Creek, t12/18; cum 291K 2/20;
  • 32813, 1,978, CLR, State Wehdal 9-36H, Corral Creek, t12/18; cum 271K 2/20;
  • 32812, 2,098, CLR, State Weydahl 8-36H1, Corral Creek, t12/18; cum 397K 2/20;
  • 30364, 2,988, CLR, State Weydahl 7-36H2, Corral Creek, t1/19; cum 193K 2/20;
  • 30363, 2,446, CLR, State Weydahl 6-36H, Corral Creek, t1/19; cum 130K 2/20;
  • 30362, 2,575, CLR, State Weydahl 5-36H1, Corral Creek, t1/19; cum 363K 2/20;
Huge IPs:
  • 30362:
  • 30364:
  • 32812:
  • 32813:
  • 32818:

Incredible wells.

Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- April 9, 2020

Jobless claims, analysts continue to underestimate the severity of socialism. Link here.
  • in round numbers:
    • consensus: 5,000K (i.e., five million)
    • actual, 7,000K (i.e., seven million)
  • in exact numbers:
    • prior: 6.648 million
    • revised: 6.867 million
    • consensus: 5.000 million
    • actual: 6.606 million
Narrative here:

US to become importer of oil -- EIA. Link here.

Wisconsin: they're reading the blog. I posted that gas was selling for under 80 cents/gallon in Wisconsin a couple of days ago, and now I see that Fox News has picked up the story. Whoo-hoo!

If you ever want to find this clip quickly, search "doofus":

He's making Joe Biden look like a zen master.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3663584931

Two wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, April 9, 2020: 8 for the month; 8 for the quarter, 263 for the year:
  • 35017, SI/NC, BR, Lillibridge 1D TFH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 33022, SI/NC, BR, Chuckwagon 21-15 TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
RBN Energy: what COVID-19, global LNG demand loss could mean for US gas storage refill.
The U.S. natural gas market has been on edge as it awaits more clarity on the extent of the demand destruction that could transpire, both from COVID-related commercial and industrial closures and potential disruptions to U.S. LNG export activity from demand losses downstream, particularly in Europe and Asia. The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub prompt contract last week set at all-time lows for April trading — twice — before gaining ground again this week as forecasts turned decidedly more bullish for April. But the market remains under pressure, as it heads into the storage injection season with an inventory that’s well above the year-ago and five-year average levels. With the economic slowdown likely persisting, in the U.S. and globally, in the coming weeks and months, the question is, could potential demand loss send the inventory barreling toward record-high, or even capacity-testing, levels by this fall? How much demand loss would it take for that to happen? Today, we assess the potential impacts of domestic demand loss and possible LNG cargo cancellations on the U.S. gas market.
March was a tumultuous month for the U.S. gas market. As we said last week in Flirtin’ with Disaster, natural gas prices last month whipsawed within a 30-cent range, as the market evaluated the extent and timing of declines in associated gas production from oil-focused basins amid sub-$30/bbl oil prices versus the demand impact of COVID-related business shutdowns and stay-at-home orders. Gas futures earlier in March moved higher as oil prices collapsed and producers one after another began announcing massive cuts to their 2020 capital expenditures, making a slowdown in oil and associated gas production inevitable later this year. But futures reversed course later in March and tumbled to 25-year lows for the month, trading near $1.60/MMBtu as business closures and work-from-home policies mounted and the market turned its focus to what that could mean for U.S. sector demand. In the first few days of April, prompt futures fell further, dropping to $1.587/MMBtu on April 1, which at the time was the all-time low for April trading. The market then proceeded to beat that the next day with a new record low of $1.552/MMBtu.  Earlier this week, prompt futures rallied back up into the high $1.80s/MMBtu before settling near $1.78/MMBtu yesterday, as cooler forecasts for April have turned the near-term outlook more bullish, particularly compared with April 2019, which was especially bearish. However, prices are still close to a $1/MMBtu lower than where they were trading at this time last year.
From a fundamentals perspective, March 2020 was downright sobering for the gas market, given that the supply-demand balance averaged nearly 8 Bcf/d longer supply than the same time last year and was the most bearish March we’ve seen since 2012, despite LNG export demand doubling versus the March 2019 average. Production gains contributed to the weaker balance, but domestic consumption declined as much as production increased, making for a double whammy on the overall balance.
Well-above-normal temperatures played a significant role in depressing domestic consumption last month, particularly residential/commercial (res/comm) heating use. But in the last week or two of March, some demand loss from non-weather-related factors became evident as more people hunkered down at home due to COVID, though some of the effects of that were at least partly offset by increased use of gas (vs. coal) for power generation as a result of rock-bottom gas prices.