Thursday, December 31, 2020

Annual Permit Summary -- 2020

Permits, #37296 - #38059

  • 14 of them were salt water disposal wells
  • three carbon capture and storage
  • 746 gas and oil permits

Counties:

  • Dunn: 148
  • McKenzie: 272
  • Mountrail: 150
  • Williams: 134

Field (top ten):

  • Alkali Creek: 14
  • Antelope: 56
  • Bailey: 18
  • Beaver Lodge: 10
  • Big Bend: 29
  • Cedar Coulee: 23
  • Dimmick Lake: 16
  • East Fork: 10
  • East Tioga: 21
  • Elidah: 17
  • Elm Tree: 27
  • Hofflund: 21
  • Little Knife: 17
  • Mandaree: 18
  • Moccasin Creek: 19
  • North Fork: 23
  • Oliver: 16
  • Pershing: 28
  • Reunion Bay: 39
  • Sanish: 39
  • Stony Creek: 15
  • Westberg: 14

Not on the list above:

  • Grail 
  • Haystack Butte
  • Hawkeye
  • Oakdale
  • Parshall
  • Truax
  • Van Hook

Operators: number of permits:

  • CLR: 125
  • BR: 110
  • MRO: 99
  • Hess: 50
  • Whiting: 50
  • XTO: 46
  • Enerplus: 45
  • Petro-Hunt: 38
  • Slawson: 29
  • WPX: 28 
  • Kraken: 24
  • Zavanna: 20
  • Crescent Point: 17
  • Petroshale: 15
  • Oasis: 13
  • Sinclair: 9
  • KODA Resources: 8
  • Lime Rock: 6
  • Equinor: 5
  • Iron Oil: 4 
  • Nine Point Energy: 3
  • Liberty Resources: 3
  • Bruin: 1
  • EOG: 1
  • Red Tail Energy: 1
  • SHD: 1
  • True Oil: 1
  • Rimrock: 1

Note: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

Number of new permits by year:

2008: 944 permits

  • first permit: 17002
  • last permit: 17945
2009: 625 permits
  • first permit: 17946
  • last permit: 18570
2010: 1,676 permits
  • first permit: 18571
  • last permit: 20246
2011: 1,924 permits;
  • first permit: 20247
  • last permit: 22170
2012: 2,522 permits
  • first permit: 22171
  • last permit: 24692
2013: 2,667 permits
  • first permit: 24693
  • last permit: 27359
2014: 3,010 permits
  • first permit: 27360
  • last permit: 30369
2015: 2,055 permits
  • first permit: 30370
  • last permit: 32424
2016: 818 permits
  • first permit: 32425
  • last permit: 33242
2017: 1,189 permits
  • first permit: 33243
  • last permit: 34431
2018: 1,466 permits
  • first permit: 34432
  • last permit: 35898

2019: 1,397 permits

  • first permit: 35899
  • last permit: 37295

2020751 gas and oil permits

  • permits, #37296 - #38059 (first year in which permit numbers included O&G; CCS; SWD)
  • nine of them were salt water disposal wells
  • three carbon capture and storage
  • 751 gas and oil permits

Two New Permits, Twenty Permits Renewed -- New Year's Eve -- 2020

 Active rigs:


12/31/202012/31/201912/31/201812/31/201712/31/2016
Active Rigs1355674939

Two new permits, #38058 - #38059, inclusive:

  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has permits for two Littlefield Federal wells in NWNW 34-154-91; both 2485 FSL and 390 - 435 FWL; Sanish oil field

Twenty permits renewed:

  • Operator: NP
  • Permits renewed:
    • two McDonald permits, 32-143-102, Billings
    • three Little Mo Federal permits, 12-142-102, Billings
    • one Mosser Federal permit, 22-143-102, Billings
    • three Audrey permits, 35-143-103, Golden Valley
    • five Trotter Federal permits, 26-145-102, McKenzie
    • six Roosevelt Federal permits, 28-143-102, Billings,

The EIA "914" Has Posted -- December 31, 2020

Link here

First things first. This is really cool. When the NDIC Director's Cut came out in mid-December with October, 2020, data, the preliminary numbers suggested that month-over-month there was a slight decline in North Dakota crude oil production, October/September. 

My "blog title" at the time: October production exceeded that of September. I was pretty sure that when the official figures came out later the "newer" / revised numbers would show that increase. And, in fact, they did, according to the EIA 914 for October, 2020.

The preliminary data at that time, from the NDIC Director's Cut:

Crude oil production:

  • October: 1,222,871 bopd (preliminary)
  • September: 1,223,107 bopd
  • delta: 236 bopd
  • delta: 0.00%

Now, the EIA data for October, 2020.

In kbpd.

Texas:

  • Oct: 4,632
  • Sept: 4,631
  • up 0.1%

North Dakota:

  • Oct: 1,218
  • Sept: 1,212
  • up: 0.5%

Whoo-hoo. 

Over at the sidebar at the right, I asked, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, which would survive the meltdown best -- the Bakken or the Permian. 

In the big scheme of things, the Permian did better through the slowdown, but at least for the most recent production numbers, North Dakota proved more resilient, up 0.5% m/m vs 01% for Texas.

But I'll give "it" to the Permian. 

Anything else of note in the most recent EIA figures? Month-over-month, change:

  • US: down 4.1%
  • Alaska: up 4.0%
  • Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico: down a whopping 29.8% (even worse, year-over-year, down 44.8%). That should please the Biden enviromentalists.
  • New Mexico: up 5.6% month/month; up 13.3% y/y

For The Archives -- For The Grandchildren -- Nothing About The Bakken -- December 31, 2020

Updates

Okay: this blog is closed. Comments will be accepted but no more updates. Enough is enough. Time to move on. 

Later, 1:53 p.m. CT: first it was the buskers about six months ago; now, through Emmylou Harris, it's "the basket houses": a cafe or similar establishment where musical performances are given and the performers are then paid with money placed in a basket by members of the audience. 

Later, 1:46 p.m. CT: and, of all things, this all led me to this Emmylou Harris interview, posted just two weeks ago -- December 17, 2020. I'm always looking for "news" WRT Emmylou Harris.

Later, 1:35 p.m. CT: and that brings us to the Farfisa and Sam the Sham

Later, 1:24 p.m. CT: more on Doug Sahm (and Charlie Pride, and Bob Dylan). Some may recognize Doug's backup vocalist on this song:

Later, 1:12 p.m. CT: flashback: when Sir Doug died in New Mexico. From that link, provided by the reader who started this whole digression from the Bakken:

In the 1970s [Doug Sahm] became an icon of the ``Cosmic Cowboy'' scene in Austin, along with Willie Nelson and Jerry Jeff Walker
In 1973 he recorded an album called Doug Sahm & Band, which featured appearances by Bob Dylan, Dr. John and Flaco Jimenez. 
In the late 1980s Sahm teamed up with Freddy Fender, Jimenez and Meyers to form the Tex-Mex super group The Texas Tornados, which had hits with songs such as "Who Were You Thinking Of ?" and "Hey Baby Que Paso?"

Original Post 

We lived in San Antonio, TX, for over ten years before moving to north Texas in 2013 (during those ten years or so we also spent much time visiting and living in Portsmouth, NH; Summerville (Charleston), SC; and Boston, MA). But we have huge emotional ties to San Antonio, TX.

A reader sent me links to two Flaco Jiménez videos -- one of them on this page. My reply to the reader after watching the videos:

So much could be written.

1. Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's detective Sherlock Holmes was famous for identifying the geographical origin of an individual based on accent, dialect, whatever. Well, I about fell off my chair listening to Flaco Jiménez -- he sounded exactly like my father-in-law. Flaco was born/raised in San Antonio. My father-in-law was born / raised in Beeville, a small town just south of San Antonio.

2. I had forgotten all about Freddy Fender and the Texas Tornados. I used to listen to them frequently; don't recall if I've ever posted anything by them on the blog.

3. Finally, all that blue. Let's call it indigo. You can read about it on the blog when I get it posted later this morning. 

Okay, so here's the video:

The Texas Tornados
("If you've got the dinero, I've got the Camaro")

Look at all that blue. Let's call it indigo.

From On Color, David Scott Kastan, c. 2018, p. 121:

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- December 31, 2020

Link here

From A Reader -- Why I Love Texas -- December 31, 2020

That about says it all. 

Happy New Year y'all. 

*****************************************
The Movie Page

Last night, I watched two classic Hitchcock movies and a third of the same genre, all back to back. Absolutely outstanding. I had seen all three in bits and pieces over the years but do not recall ever having watched them from start to finish. 

I remember, the first time I saw some early scenes in Cape Fear. I was unable to "handle" the terror -- Robert Mitchum -- wow -- and so I quit watching early in the film. But last night I was ready for it and watched the movie in its entirety.

I had never noticed all the "bird" stuff in Psycho which foreshadowed The Birds

Birds in Psycho? See this review. Roger Ebert's review is here

The Birds: I'm glad I finally watched the entire movie, but have no desire to ever see it again. I could watch Psycho again. Cape Fear? Probably not.

Notes From All Over -- The Restaurant Review Edition -- December 31, 2020

Top 250 restaurants. At the link, one can quickly scroll through the top 250 restaurants in the US. Looks like a nice link / source that I had not seen before. Main site here.

Restaurant closures: A nice overview, albeit superficial, of the number of restaurant sites that are being closed among the top chains.

The pandemic simply expedited the closure of a lot of marginal restaurant locations. Worse than most years but in the big scheme of things, not that big of a deal. 
Twenty-eight restaurant chains listed. Number 28 on the list was Benihana. In 2019 and 2020, it announced only one Benihana that was closing, the one in Sacramento, CA, but then this: "the company this year announced plans to expand in the U.S. and develop franchises in the Caribbean, Central America and South America.

Los Angeles skid row, no comment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TwW9tnkhQg&feature=youtu.be. Original link here. Okay, one comment: after watching that, I'm glad I spent my time watching three classic Hitchcock movies on TCMl last night rather than watching this crap stuff.

AAPL / Apple, Inc: several links; some stories (different sources) previously posted:

  • why AAPL could be a growth stock in 2021; no mention of the car; Motley Fool;
  • Apple's big iOS14 update could wound these two tech giants (Facebook and Alphabet); Motley Fool;
  • Apple phones take 9 of top 10 spots in activations on Christmas Day, The Street;

Penultimate: link here

FTSE 100 [The London Exchange] ends 2020 with annual loss of 14%. Worst since 2008. Compare with multiple records among US indices: Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Russell 2000.

JCP CEO: broke through the glass ceiling only to fall through the sky light. CEO out after two years of failure. Harsh. 

Amazon gets bigger: swallows up podcast startup Wondery. Link at The Wall Street Journal. Paywall but I'm sure the story is everywhere.

  • purchase price not disclosed, but rumor has it, about $300 million (isn't that what Jeff Bezos makes about every five minutes?)
  • founded in 2016, one of several podcast startups
  • known for its gritty, narrative-driven podcasts that supply cinematic sound design to nonfiction stories;
  • will greatly improve accessibility / broaden it's audience  now that it's part of Amazon
  • Amazon is tracked here; as an Amazon Prime member, I'm thrilled

Minot AFBB-52s flying over Mideast are from Minot AFB, ND. A nice way to spend the winter, in sunny Saudi Arabia or from wherever they are based. Probably not landing / taking off from aircraft carriers, but nothing surprises me any more when it comes to the B-52. LOL.  Just kidding. Can you imagine the size of the a/c carrier to support a B-52 or two? 

Bitcoin: market value surpasses Berkshire Hathaway overnight. 

Energy: from a few days ago -- the largest energy bill in a decade was just passed. You can guess what's in it. Savvy investors will take note. I'm thinking distribution transformers. 

Batteries: QuantumScape releases performance data for its solid-state battery technology. For the archives. I'm really not interested today.

Colleges: finally cutting tuition. And along with severe revenue cuts from athletic programs, one can imagine a number of universities / colleges in financial panic. Again, for the archives; I'm not interested.

Just asking for a friend:

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List To Be Reported Today -- RBN With Top Ten Blogs This Past Year -- December 31, 2020

Active rigs:

$47.86
12/31/202012/31/201912/31/201812/31/201712/31/2016
Active Rigs1355674939

No wells coming off the confidential list (there was no June 31 six months ago).

RBN Energy: Top RBN blogs of 2020: meltdown, shut-ins, NGLs, and hydrogen

Well, here we are. The last day of 2020. We are tempted to say “unprecedented” to describe the year. But the word is so overused — there’s been an unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented” — let’s just say it will be good riddance to have this one behind us. After all, we’ve seen a collapse in transportation fuel demand, an oil price war between major producers, negative $37/bbl crude prices, massive LNG cargo cancellations — the list goes on — all in the context of a global pandemic and much of the world committed to weaning itself off fossil fuels over the next few decades. How do you make sense of all that? How do you anticipate when it’s going to be “all right” again? Well, one thing we can do is to heed the events and trends that captured the market’s attention during all this chaos. In other words, to put a spotlight on the things that the market considers top priority — crowd-sourced market intelligence, if you will. Well, at RBN we have one way to do that. We scrupulously monitor the website hit rate of the RBN blogs that are fired off to over 30,000 people each day and, at the end of each year, we look back to see which topics generated the most interest from you, our readers. That hit rate reveals a lot about major market trends. So, once again, we look into the rear-view mirror to check out the Top 10 blogs of the year based on the number of rbnenergy.com website hits.

As you might expect, this year’s Top 10 has absolutely nothing in common with 2019’s. Back in that long-gone era, it was all about supply — too much of it. The market needed more pipelines, more export docks, more petchem plants, more gas-processing plants, more of just about anything infrastructure-related. By April 2020, that world was a distant memory. This year the Top 10 is mostly related to demand — not enough of it. COVID whacked demand for all things hydrocarbon, which crushed prices, prompting well shut-ins and drilling cutbacks, which slashed production, leaving much of the infrastructure developed in the pre-COVID world well short of enough throughput to fill capacity. Given this new reality, let’s see what the top blogs of 2020 can tell us about how the market dealt with the meltdown, why some market segments have recovered faster than others, and what we might expect in the coming year. Just like any year-end Top 10 list, we’ll start with #10 and work our way up to #1.

10: Shut downs.
9: Marcellus / Utica gas producers cut natural gas production.
8: Canada's propane exports.
7: NGLs.
6: Hydrogen.
5: Crude oil prices tumble.
4: New Permian-to-Gulf gas pipelines
3: Futures markets and crude oil
2: Outlook for fossil fuel
1: Crude oil meltdown, futures contracts, and crude storage, 4/20/20

And The North Dakota Farmers All Raised Their Hands --- Can We Get An "Amen"? -- December 31, 2020



Wednesday, December 30, 2020

When The Going Gets Tough, The Tough Get Going -- XTO -- December 30, 2020

The XTO Wood wells are also tracked here

The four new XTO Wood permits:

  • 38054, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25G, Truax, 223 FNL 1924 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;
  • 38055, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25EXH, Truax, 253 FNL 1931 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;
  • 38056, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25C, Truax, 370 FNL 1956 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;
  • 38057, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25H, Truax, 399 FNL 1962 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;

The graphics:


The producing wells in the graphic:

  • 24233, IA/1,948, XTO, Wood 21X-25A, 33-105-02868, Truax, t4/13; cum 267K 3/20; remains off line 10/20; stimuated 3/27/13; 30 stages; 2.75 million lbs proppant;
  • 24232, IA/1,678, XTO, Wood 21X-25AXB, 33-105-02867, Truax, t4/13; cum 241K 4/20; remains off line 10/20; stimulated 3/15/13; 30 stages; 2.7 million lbs proppant;
  • 20503, 560, XTO, Wood 21X-25B, 33-105-02148, Truax, t4/13; cum 298K 10/20; stimulated 3/21/13; 30 stages; 2.7 million lbs proppant;

The confidential well in that graphic:

  • 37818, conf, CLR, Dallas 4-30H, 33-105-05554, Truax,

A Closer Look At A Slawson Muskrat Federal Well In Big Bend / Van Hook -- December 30, 2020

This is a great well to study to get an understanding of how operators manage their assets in the Bakken. Be sure to look at the recent production:

  • 19255, 718, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 1-28-33H, 33-061-01424,Van Hook, t1/11; cum 577K 10/20; stimulated 12/31/10 - 01/07/11; 40 stages; 3.7 million lbs proppant; see full production profile here; FracFocus does not have any data for this well; it was sometime in 2011/2012 that FracFocus started posting frack data; FracFocus doesn't have frack data for wells fracked before "that date";

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2020306780628740204372412695
BAKKEN9-202030697073064005433141801
BAKKEN8-2020245165396123733112290784
BAKKEN7-2020224133322442113
BAKKEN6-20201380034280
BAKKEN5-2020612450157664322312
BAKKEN4-20206109318184707126820
BAKKEN3-20203156585834438334222853414
BAKKEN2-202029584055476914356817071716
BAKKEN1-20202240994119729126921779375
BAKKEN12-201973560287432022156301172
BAKKEN11-2019143530500
BAKKEN10-20192315661760668113682926
BAKKEN9-201930203118237121473109314

When The Going Gets Tough, The Tough Get Going -- The Slawson Muskrat Wells -- December 30, 2020

Slawson with three new Muskrat Federal / Vagabond Federal permits:

  • 38075, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 6-28-33TFH, Big Bend, NENE 28-151-92, 325 FNL 1130 FEL,
  • 38076, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 7-28-33TFH, Big Bend, NENE 28-151-92, 325 FNL 1080 FEL,
  • 38077, conf, Slawson, Vagabond Federal 1SLH, Big Bend, NENE 28-151-92, 325 FNL 1030 FEL,

Slawson with four new permits on BLM land:

  • 38046, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 3-28-33H, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1530 FWL, NENW 28-151-92,
  • 38047, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5-28-33TFH, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1480 FWL, NENW 28-151-92,
  • 38048, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 4-28-33TFH, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1380 FWL, NENW 28-151-92,
  • 38049, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 8-28-33H, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1330 FWL, NENW 28-151-92,

The graphic:

The other two wells in this section:

  • 19255, 718, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 1-28-33H, 33-061-01424,Van Hook, t1/11; cum 577K 10/20; stimulated 12/31/10 - 01/07/11; 40 stages; 3.7 million lbs proppant; see full production profile here;
  • 20267, 737, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 2-28-33H, 33-061-01653, Van Hook, t9/11; cum 473K 10/20; stimulated 8/30/11; 40 stages; 3.98 million lbs proppant;

And this section line well:

  • 30177, IA/F, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5 SLTFH, 33-061-03430, Big Bend, first production, 12/19, t--; cum 63K 2/20; intermittent since 2/20 and off line as of 7/20; legal description: sections 28/28/32/33-151-92; no frack data; FracFocus: fracked 11/30/19 - 12/18/19; 14.4 million gallons of water (a huge frack); 92.8% water by mass;

Pardon The Interruption --December 30, 2020

Wow, what a great night. TCM: The Birds, followed by Psycho and that followed by Cape Fear. Wow, wow, wow. Is this the first time I've watched all three from start to finish?

  • Norman Bates.
  • Holden Caulfield.
  • Jay Gatsby.

Best news: apparently it's a full trading day tomorrow. The last day of the year. Should be fun to watch. 

Scrooge: Mitch McConnell. Good, bad, or indifferent, a lot of folks are going to be thrilled when Biden is sworn in and for them, it will be the cherry on top if the Dems sweep Georgia. [Despite my cynicism, I actually think McConnell knows what he is doing.]


ExxonMobil on the cusp. In the same boat as Saudi Aramco:
  • unexpected demand hit;
  • the dividend issue

When The Going Gets Tough, The Tough Get Going -- December 30, 2020

I've been thinking about "this" for the past year but I am unable to articulate it, so I cannot post my thoughts, and generally, when I get too far in front of my headlights, I get a fair amount of pushback from anonymous experts.

I have a thin skin. I don't like the pushback, so I generally try to stay "within my headlights." 

We're currently in "Bakken 4.0." It's very possible we move to Bakken 5.0 if the following four "things" converge as expected:

  • the Biden administration/environmentalists significantly impact the "US shale revolution" (which I think they will);
  • the relative stability in the Mideast seen in the past four years changes for the worse (which I think it will); 
  • global demand for oil increases more quickly than anticipated (not sure about this); and,
  • price of oil trends higher (WTI trends toward $60) (not sure about this).

This post looks at the new BR permits as perhaps the post we will come back to a year from now to demonstrate how things evolved in the Bakken if, in fact, we move to Bakken 5.0.

Two dots to connect. First, the new BR "Renegade" and "Chuckwagon permits. See these two posts:

Then look at this old Chuckwagon well:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20202613747141321899634495034495
BAKKEN9-20202716402162132400937361037361
BAKKEN8-20202311701114942623830070372426346
BAKKEN7-20201100000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-202020052273130313
BAKKEN3-2020187870000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20191000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-201961284881314700470
BAKKEN9-201930563416563251102511
BAKKEN8-20193175898275428552395460

From the file report:

  • sundry form, approx start date: Ocober 17, 2019: BR respectfully requested to re-stimulate this well; a plug and perf stimulation followed by a coil tubing cleanout;
  • the original frack: stimulation, 10/3/11; 20 stages; 2.3 million lbs proppant;

FracFocus:

  • first frack, 10/2/11 - 10/2/11 (one day): 1.5 million gallons of water; 83.3% water by mass;
  • second frack, 3/24/20 - 4/1/20 (one week): 8.3 million gallons of water; 87.3% water by mass;

Notes From All Over -- The Dollar Edition -- December 30, 2020

Earlier this year, back in May, to be specific, there was a lot of concern / interest in the Canadian dollar as it plunged towards 70 cents American. See this link. Earlier in December, this month, the Canadian dollar started to fall again, but then recovered. It's general trend remains up. See this link. Over the past five years, the Canadian dollar vs the US dollar has been fairly steady but over the ten-year period, its weakness has been profound.


 For the US dollar, "90" has seemed to be the floor and dropping below "90" will be a topic of conversation on CNBC. Today, the dollar dropped below "90," apparently settling at about 89.5. Link here

One can argue that the recent rise in the price of WTI is simply tied to the weakness of the dollar. 

The ten-year chart may be somewhat reassuring but I'm not sure.

MRO's New Bailey Oil Field Permits -- The 2M-P-R-2T Pad

Does anyone seriously think the price of oil will fall under a Biden administration? If nothing else, the falling dollar will mean higher commodity prices.

And we move on.

The wells:

  • 38040, loc, MRO, TR USA 24-7H, Bailey, 612 FNL 490 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
  • 38041, loc, MRO, Terrel USA 24-7TFH, Bailey, 581 FNL 456 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
  • 38042, loc, MRO, Reems USA 14-7H, Bailey, 550 FNL 439 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
  • 38043, loc, MRO, Pavlish USA 11-18TFH, Bailey, 519 FNL 414F FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
  • 38044, loc, MRO, Millie USA 21-18H, Bailey, 488 FNL 389 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
  • 38045, loc, MRO, Magdalena USA 21-18TFH, Bailey, 241 FNL 1261 FEL, lot 1 18-146-94;

The graphics:




 The two producing wells:

  • 16807, 305, MRO, George Tuhy 11-18H, Bailey, t2/08; cum 177K 10/20;
  • 16666, 502, MRO, Bob Tuhy 44-19H, Bailey, t11/08; cum 465K 10/20; a re-frac; stimulated/tested 3/2/15, 30 stages; 2.9 million lbs proppant; originally an open-hole frack, 2/11/08, 500K lbs sand;

EVs

Commentaries, Editorials:

Tesla:

  • BofA just set a new price target for TSLA -- a "street" high of $900/share. Link here. Announced / posted January 11, 2021.

Ford:

Chrysler

  • FiatChrysler and PSA (French: Peugeot, Citroen, etc) to merge, link here
    • purpose: jump start EVs

Apple:

  • likely to sign partner agreement with Hyundai, March, 2021, to begin production, 2024;
  • Magna Steyr, January 6, 2021.

Lucid

Tata, Indian-based:

Charging stations:

California

Lithium shortage 

EV infrastructure:

  • January 29, 2021: a reader asked about investing opportunities in US EV infrastructure. Easy-peasy:
    • each charging staging needs computer chips and sensors: #1 in such stuff -- TSMC and AAPL.
    • does electricity still move from charging station to vehicle in a rubber-covered tube of copper? Or does electricity move by some other method? Here's the answer: Aluminum has cost and weight advantages over copper and is the preferred material for electricity transmission and distribution uses today. Due to aluminum's superior conductivity-to-weight ratio compared with copper, the metal is now used for wiring in residences, buildings, aircraft and appliances
    • China may build the components, but it's going to be local contractors putting in the charging stations.
    • Here are the top 20 companies that make charging stations: https://roboticsandautomationnews.com/2019/05/01/top-20-electric-vehicle-charging-station-companies/22138/

Eighteen New Permits -- December 30, 2020

Mark Perry, Carpe Diem: animated chart of the day -- world's top ten billionaires, 2000 to 2020.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$48.30
12/30/202012/30/201912/30/201812/30/201712/30/2016
Active Rigs1355664939

Eighteen new permits, #38040 - #38057, inclusive, between December 18, 2020 and December 30, 2020 (I was traveling during this period and did not get caught up until today) :

  • Operators:
    • MRO: 6 permits in Bailey oil field; a 2M-P-R-2T pad;
    • Slawson: 4 permits in Big Bend; a Muskrat Federal pad;
    • BR: 4 permits in Sand Creek; a Renegade/Chuckwagon pad;
    • XTO: 4 permits in Truax; a Wood pad;
  • The permits:
    • 38040, loc, MRO, TR USA 24-7H, Bailey, 612 FNL 490 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
    • 38041, loc, MRO, Terrel USA 24-7TFH, Bailey, 581 FNL 456 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
    • 38042, loc, MRO, Reems USA 14-7H, Bailey, 550 FNL 439 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
    • 38043, loc, MRO, Pavlish USA 11-18TFH, Bailey, 519 FNL 414 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
    • 38044, loc, MRO, Millie USA 21-18H, Bailey, 488 FNL 389 FWL, Lot 1 18-146-94;
    • 38045, loc, MRO, Magdalena USA 21-18TFH, Bailey, 241 FNL 1261 FEL, lot 1 18-146-94;
    • 38046, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 3-28-33H, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1530 FWL, NENW 28-151-92,
    • 38047, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5-28-33TFH, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1480 FWL, NENW 28-151-92,
    • 38048, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 4-28-33TFH, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1380 FWL, NENW 28-151-92,
    • 38049, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 8-28-33H, Big Bend, 300 FNL 1330 FWL, NENW 28-151-92,
    • 38050, conf, BR, Renegade 14-10TFH, Sand Creek, 290 FSL 541 FWL, SWSW 10-153-97;
    • 38051, conf, BR, Chuckwagon 11-15TFH, Sand Creek, 290 FSL 586 FWL, SWSW 10-153-97;
    • 38052, conf, BR, Chuckwagon 11-15MBH, Sand Creek, 290 FSL 631 FWL, SWSW 10-153-97;
    • 38053, conf, BR, Renegade 14-10MBH, Sand Creek, 290 FSL 676 FWL, SWSW 10-153-97;
    • 38054, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25G, Truax, 223 FNL 1924 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;
    • 38055, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25EXH, Truax, 253 FNL 1931 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;
    • 38056, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25C, Truax, 370 FNL 1956 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;
    • 38057, conf,  XTO, Wood 21X-25H, Truax, 399 FNL 1962 FWL, NENW 25-154-98;

Three permits renewed:

  • Petro-Hunt (2): two Lovdahl permits in Mountrail County;
  • BR: a Manchester permit in Dunn County;

The BR Renegade wells are tracked here

Notes From All Over -- Mid-Afternoon Edition -- December 30, 2020

AAPL: this is really, really cool. AAPL hit its "buy point" a couple of days ago, but then it moved back. What's going on? Investors are selling a bit of AAPL for various reasons:

  • professional managers: want to lock in their profits; make 2020 look as good as it can; will be back to buy AAPL after the New Year:
  • mom-and-pop retail: paying off credit card bills; Christmas shopping bills; they only have to sell a few shares but in the aggregate more selling than buying;
  • this is why the Santa Claus rally extends into the first two trading days after the New Year

Investors should love this:

American firepower: must drive them (the "bad guys") nuts.

China flu watch -- North Dakota:

********************************
The Movie Page

My wife knows everything about the movies. I know nothing about the movies, at least in the big scheme of things. With TCM, I am gradually catching up.

Hitchcock's The Birds is on TCM tonight. I don't know if I've ever watched the whole movie; the whole premise seemed ridiculous. But here I am, watching the big screen movie on the little screen. 

How could I miss this? Suzanne Pleshette.

Those in my generation were in our tweens when The Birds was released. On the other hand, my generation grew up with Suzanne Pleshette in the Bob Newhart Show. But here she is, in The Birds. In 1963, she was twenty-six years old so I assume she was twenty-four to twenty-five years old when she tried out for the part and when she played the part. 

As gorgeous and as wonderful Pleshette was in the Bob Newhart Show I was stunned by how Elizabeth-Taylor-esque Pleshette appeared standing in the doorway early in the movie. 

Via Wiki I see Suzanne Pleshette died in 2008 at the age of seventy, of lung cancer. In The Birds she is seen smoking in her scenes. Some irony, there, I suppose. In fact, Tippi Hedron is also seen smoking in her scenes. Pretty sad.

Seventy years old. My wife and I are fortunate to have made it to the same age in good health. If you have it, never take your good health for granted. It's a wonderful gift.

Chariots On Fire -- December 30, 2020

 


Weekly EIA Report -- December 30, 2020

Updates

Later, 1:48 p.m. CT



Original Post

Two stories developing:

  • distillate fuel inventories relative to five-year average;
  • jet fuel delivered trending toward the mean;

Link here.

  • US crude oil supplies decreased by a remarkable 6.1 million bbls from the previous week;
  • US crude oil in storage now at 493.5 million bbls, about 11% above the already-fat-five-year average;
  • US refiners operating at 79.4% operable capacity;
  • the US imported 5.3 million bbls per day last week, down by 238,000 bopd fro the previous week;
  • imports over the past four weeks about 14.4% less than same period last week;
  • distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.1 million bbls last week and are about 6% above the already-fat-five-year average for this time of year;
  • jet fue supplied was down 31.8% compared with same four-week period last year;

A quick look at the numbers suggests the big story is distillate fuel inventories. I did this quickly and there may be errors but this is my spreadsheet:

Distillate Fuel Inventories




Week

Date of Report

Change in Millions

Relative to 5-Yr Avg

Week 1

August 26, 2020

1.40

24.0%

Week 2

September 2, 2020

-1.70

23.0%

Week 3

September 10, 2020

-1.70

20.0%

Week 4

September 16, 2020

3.50

22.0%

Week 5

September 23, 2020

-3.40

21.0%

Week 6

September 30, 2020

-3.20

21.0%

Week 7

October 7, 2020

-1.00

23.0%

Week 8

October 15, 2020

-7.20

19.0%

Week 9

October 21, 2020

-3.80

19.0%

Week 10

October 28, 2020

-4.50

17.0%

Week 11

November 4, 2020

-1.60

18.0%

Week 12

November 12, 2020

-5.40

15.0%

Week 13

November 18, 2020

-5.20

11.0%

Week 14

November 25, 2020

-1.40

8.0%

Week 15

December 2, 2020

3.20

8.0%

Week 16

December 9, 2020

5.20

11.0%

Week 17

December 16, 2020

0.20

11.0%

Week 18

December 23, 2020

-2.30

10.0%

Week 19

December 30, 2020

3.10

6.0%

Note how down the change is "relative to the five-year average. Again, if I have this wrong, "focus on fracking" will sort it out Sunday night. 

Gasoline demand, link here: