Updates
Later, 1:48 p.m. CT:
Original Post
Two stories developing:
- distillate fuel inventories relative to five-year average;
- jet fuel delivered trending toward the mean;
- US crude oil supplies decreased by a remarkable 6.1 million bbls from the previous week;
- US crude oil in storage now at 493.5 million bbls, about 11% above the already-fat-five-year average;
- US refiners operating at 79.4% operable capacity;
- the US imported 5.3 million bbls per day last week, down by 238,000 bopd fro the previous week;
- imports over the past four weeks about 14.4% less than same period last week;
- distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.1 million bbls last week and are about 6% above the already-fat-five-year average for this time of year;
- jet fue supplied was down 31.8% compared with same four-week period last year;
A quick look at the numbers suggests the big story is distillate fuel inventories. I did this quickly and there may be errors but this is my spreadsheet:
Distillate Fuel Inventories |
|
|
|
Week |
Date of Report |
Change in Millions |
Relative to 5-Yr Avg |
Week 1 |
August 26, 2020 |
1.40 |
24.0% |
Week 2 |
September 2, 2020 |
-1.70 |
23.0% |
Week 3 |
September 10, 2020 |
-1.70 |
20.0% |
Week 4 |
September 16, 2020 |
3.50 |
22.0% |
Week 5 |
September 23, 2020 |
-3.40 |
21.0% |
Week 6 |
September 30, 2020 |
-3.20 |
21.0% |
Week 7 |
October 7, 2020 |
-1.00 |
23.0% |
Week 8 |
October 15, 2020 |
-7.20 |
19.0% |
Week 9 |
October 21, 2020 |
-3.80 |
19.0% |
Week 10 |
October 28, 2020 |
-4.50 |
17.0% |
Week 11 |
November 4, 2020 |
-1.60 |
18.0% |
Week 12 |
November 12, 2020 |
-5.40 |
15.0% |
Week 13 |
November 18, 2020 |
-5.20 |
11.0% |
Week 14 |
November 25, 2020 |
-1.40 |
8.0% |
Week 15 |
December 2, 2020 |
3.20 |
8.0% |
Week 16 |
December 9, 2020 |
5.20 |
11.0% |
Week 17 |
December 16, 2020 |
0.20 |
11.0% |
Week 18 |
December 23, 2020 |
-2.30 |
10.0% |
Week 19 |
December 30, 2020 |
3.10 |
6.0% |
Note how down the change is "relative to the five-year average. Again, if I have this wrong, "focus on fracking" will sort it out Sunday night.
Gasoline demand, link here:
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