Wednesday, December 30, 2020

Weekly EIA Report -- December 30, 2020

Updates

Later, 1:48 p.m. CT



Original Post

Two stories developing:

  • distillate fuel inventories relative to five-year average;
  • jet fuel delivered trending toward the mean;

Link here.

  • US crude oil supplies decreased by a remarkable 6.1 million bbls from the previous week;
  • US crude oil in storage now at 493.5 million bbls, about 11% above the already-fat-five-year average;
  • US refiners operating at 79.4% operable capacity;
  • the US imported 5.3 million bbls per day last week, down by 238,000 bopd fro the previous week;
  • imports over the past four weeks about 14.4% less than same period last week;
  • distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.1 million bbls last week and are about 6% above the already-fat-five-year average for this time of year;
  • jet fue supplied was down 31.8% compared with same four-week period last year;

A quick look at the numbers suggests the big story is distillate fuel inventories. I did this quickly and there may be errors but this is my spreadsheet:

Distillate Fuel Inventories




Week

Date of Report

Change in Millions

Relative to 5-Yr Avg

Week 1

August 26, 2020

1.40

24.0%

Week 2

September 2, 2020

-1.70

23.0%

Week 3

September 10, 2020

-1.70

20.0%

Week 4

September 16, 2020

3.50

22.0%

Week 5

September 23, 2020

-3.40

21.0%

Week 6

September 30, 2020

-3.20

21.0%

Week 7

October 7, 2020

-1.00

23.0%

Week 8

October 15, 2020

-7.20

19.0%

Week 9

October 21, 2020

-3.80

19.0%

Week 10

October 28, 2020

-4.50

17.0%

Week 11

November 4, 2020

-1.60

18.0%

Week 12

November 12, 2020

-5.40

15.0%

Week 13

November 18, 2020

-5.20

11.0%

Week 14

November 25, 2020

-1.40

8.0%

Week 15

December 2, 2020

3.20

8.0%

Week 16

December 9, 2020

5.20

11.0%

Week 17

December 16, 2020

0.20

11.0%

Week 18

December 23, 2020

-2.30

10.0%

Week 19

December 30, 2020

3.10

6.0%

Note how down the change is "relative to the five-year average. Again, if I have this wrong, "focus on fracking" will sort it out Sunday night. 

Gasoline demand, link here:

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