Not Ready For Prime Time -- Idle Chatter -- March 5, 2026

Locator: 50150WWIIILITE.

Holy mackerel! If you can connect the dots between the big geo-political events:

• TE Lawrence / Emir Faisal bin Hussein and the British -- planning WWI strategy (ultimately establishing the borders of "all" the Mideast countries; 
• FDR - Churchill - Stalin -- planing WWII strategy; and, now,
• Netayahu and Trump and the powerful Kurdistan Barzani family ...

Turn this into a war about politics and oil ....

With China, Russia, and the Brits on the outside looking in.

Turkey, on the sidelines, watching closely.  

Netanyahu and Trump won't have to deal with the Brit's Keir Starmer (nor the French for that matter) -- making things a lot easier. Both Trump and Netanyahu think alike and can think 30 years ahead.  

As an aside, even Canada's Mark Carney won't have a place at the table when the negotiating begins.

Call it "WWIII Lite" -- once the Kurds start moving south and taking Iranian oil fields in lands that were traditionally Kurdish (see the Kurdistan maps), this goes well beyond the future of the Khamenei regime, and the redrawing of the borders where the Iraqis, Persians, and Kurds intersect.

Not ready for prime time. Thinking out loud.

Reparations? 

Investing -- Day 6 - March 5, 2026

Locator: 50149INVESTING.

Oil markets: no one knows how to play this. 

HALO: Cramer, as we discussed earlier, hates "HALO" strategy. 

• A CNBC colleague, Josh Brown, coined the term. See this link.

BRK: after Cramer strongly recommended BRK and the new CEO said that BRK buybacks had recommenced, BRK has recovered a bit:

Ticker BRK:

Ticker AVGO:  

US Shale Won't Replace Lost Middle East Oil -- March 5, 2026

Locator: 50148B.

Link here. 

The HM Hove - Michael State Pad -- Grinnell -- West Capa -- March 5, 2026

Locator: 50147HOVE.

From today's daily activity report:

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 41270, 2,633, CLR, HM Hove 6-9H, Williams County; 1280-acre spacing unit; sections 4 / 9 - 154-96; 66K over 25 days extrapolates to 80K bbls of oil over 30 days; these wells are all incredible wells; will post as stand-alone, later:

Other wells on that pad, highest monthly production :

• 41267, 66,462K; Michael State 2-16H;
• 41268, 72,163K; Michael State 3-16H1;
• 41269, 62,201K; Michael State 4-16H,
• 41270, 66,384K; HM Hove 6-9H, 
• 41271, 56,338K; HM Hove 7-9H, 
• 41272, 52,048K; HM Hove 8-9H,

Let's look at #41268:

• 41268 drl/A, CLR, Michael State 3-16H1, Grinnell, t12/25; cum 108K in first two months of production; Three Forks First Bench (B1); IP: 2,721 bopd; stimulated 6/13/25; 47 stages; volume, 262,607 bbls; proppant, 13,112,651 pounds;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2026	31	35600	35781	47329	141141	140384	316
BAKKEN	12-2025	31	72163	71832	78100	189587	189365	222
BAKKEN	11-2025	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2025	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2025	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

WTI Surges To $81 Today -- Day 6 -- March 5, 2026

Locator: 50146B.

WTI: $81.01. Surged an astounding 8.51% today; up $6.35 by the close. 

Active rigs: 25.

Three new permits, #42750 - #42752, inclusive:

• Operator: Formentera Operations
• Field: Baukol Noonan, Divide County;
• Comments: Formentera Operations has permits for two Rainbows End and one Laguna Vista well, SESE 13-162-96, 
• to be sited, 608 FSL and 430 / 500 FEL;

Eighteen (18) permits renewed:

• Enerplus (9):
• Whiting (3):
• Zavanna (6):

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 41270, 2,633, CLR, HM Hove 6-9H, Williams County; 1280-acre spacing unit; sections 4 / 9 - 154-96; 66K over 25 days extrapolates to 80K bbls of oil over 30 days; these wells are all incredible wells; will post as stand-alone, later:

HKN, Inc In The News Today -- Kurdish Oil Field In Northern Iraq -- Frequent Site Of Drone Attacks -- Local Connection -- March 5, 2026

Locator: 50145KURDISTAN.

This started out as a personal interest story, in fact, it is turning into a pretty interesting global geo-political story with huge explanation of why China is so interested in this war, and it's not simply about the Strait of Hormuz.  

The geo-politics of the Mideast right now are incredibly fascinating -- least of which is not Iranian oil fields to the north which could be a land grab by Kurdistan, Iraq, and even possibly Turkey. 

Absolutely fascinating. Not everyone in the region is upset by this war. It might be fascinating to re-reading parts of the Daniel Yergin's 1990 The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. 

Right now, I would suggest Kurdistan could certainly be the prime movers, ahead of Iraq and Turkey. There may be a few US companies watching this play out. It's very, very possible before this is all over, the borders of Iran will be re-drawn. Trump has been interested in another oil country: Venezuela. Just imagine what Trump might be thinking.

Today's headline story that caught my attention:

Tonight I will be taking our 11-year-old granddaughter to soccer practice in Southlake, TX.

HKN, Inc., is headquartered in Southlake, TX. Our go-to city for Barnes and Noble, high-end restaurants, hoity-toity sports facilities. 

It's a small world. 

Former president George W. Bush was on the board of directors over at HKN in the late 1980s and early 1990s. He left the board in 1993.  

Link here.  

Wiki link here. Wiki does not state from where the drone attacks came in 2025, but obviously, from Iran. 

See maps of Kurdistan at this link. 

Iraqi oil fields, map, at this link.  Kurdish oil fields, northern Iraq:

Day 6: WTI Spikes -- March 5, 2026

Locator: 50144WTI.

WTI: just spiked 5.61%; spiked $4.19 / bbl; now trading at $78.85. 

Comes after the Strait of Hormuz grinds to a halt after Iran launches huge number of retaliatory strikes against Israel and US air bases in the region following US sinking of Iranian frigate. Azerbaijan also struck.  

Huge Bakken Well Being Reported -- 39388 -- BR's Watchman Peak 1-8-11MBH -- March 5, 2026

Locator: 50143B. 

WTI: just spiked 5.61%; spiked $4.19 / bbl; now trading at $78.85. 

Just when I thought it was going to be a boring day a reader sends me this! 

A huge thanks to the reader who caught this. I missed it (at least a quick search of the blog I did not see it).

From October 12, 2011: fifteen years ago! Link here.  All these wells are doing incredibly well in early production:

• Watchman wells; and,
• Devils Backbone wells. 

From January 17, 2026:

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 39388, 954, BR, Watchman Peak 1-8-11MBH, Westberg, t1/25; cum 475K 1/26; McKenzie County; t 1/1/25; 57 stages; volume fluid to frac: 270,934 bbls; lbs proppant: 5,929,692; spacing: 2 / 11 / 14 / 23 - 152 - 97. Halo effect? Yes.

Full production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2026	31	84585	84508	14612	88046	87211	775
BAKKEN	12-2025	30	41776	41788	22296	127325	126117	1130
BAKKEN	11-2025	30	35701	35723	21478	122026	120831	1117
BAKKEN	10-2025	30	53471	53432	31749	150123	146424	3579
BAKKEN	9-2025	22	23458	23536	17261	57624	56880	690
BAKKEN	8-2025	21	27853	27860	24377	75746	73928	1743
BAKKEN	7-2025	31	28652	28604	19704	75546	74570	869
BAKKEN	6-2025	29	25235	25161	14252	54080	52241	1779
BAKKEN	5-2025	30	26308	26344	14298	64679	63107	1514
BAKKEN	4-2025	27	24131	24064	13764	58451	56619	1779
BAKKEN	3-2025	14	11804	11972	7283	29958	27763	2166
BAKKEN	2-2025	27	45076	45090	20487	119452	101335	18034
BAKKEN	1-2025	24	47253	47037	9833	112279	105880	6347
BAKKEN	12-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2024	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2024	0	0	0	0	266	0	266

*********************
The Maps

 

 

Back To Cramer? March 5, 2026

Locator: 50142ENERPLUS. 

I haven't watched a minute of Cramer (or CNBC, for that matter) since last week, once Operation EPIC FURY began. The news simply becomes too crazy. One exception: I did watch CNBC report on AVGO's earnings. Found the reporting fairly lackluster. CNBC even went to commercial break just as the numbers broke. I got the news first on the internet.

So, I'll probably turn CNBC on for ten minutes to see Cramer’s “Mad Money”and then go from there.  [Later: never did watch it.]

***********************************
Cramer's First Ten Minutes

S&P 500 rallies: market is back to green for the year.

Individual mom-and-pop retail: buying on the dip -- big time.

Intergenerational wealth transfer.

First stock mentioned: AVGO -- "up big."

BRK: CEO says they're back to resuming buybacks and will do buybacks EVERY year.  
Cramer: getting tired of BRK's "powder dry, powder dry, powder dry." Time for BRK to get rid of that strategy.  

Yeah, it's time to go biking. 

 ***********************************
What Comes Next?

March Madness can't come soon enough (March 17, 2026).

PGA: Arnold Palmer Invitational starts today.

Biking: I'll be biking by 8:30 a.m.

Investing? "Saving" cash to fund Roth IRAs for two older granddaughters.  

PSA: Enerplus 1099s Are Arriving -- March 5, 2026

Locator: 50142ENERPLUS. 

I can't verify this but I'm being told by some readers that Enerplus 1099s are now being received.  

Three Stocks Of Interest -- March 5, 2026

Locator: 50141INVESTING. 

Note: in a long note like this, there will be typographical and content errors. This blog is not meant for readers other than my extended family, but I post the blog without restrictions because this is the fastest way I can get information to my extended family members. This is not an investment site. See blog's disclaimer. Please feel free to fact check. Comments are heavily moderated.  

BKR: resuming buybacks. Anything to get the price of BRK back up.

Micron (MU): on news of LPDRAMS

Broadcom (AVGO):

• Motley Fool: link here.
• Broadcom's earnings confirm that demand for AI continues to accelerate. Stock market action regarding AVGO follows a similar trend after earning report -- pre-market -- 

Shay, link here:

• and profit / revenue increased from 20% to 40%.  

Copper, link here:

**********************************
Disclaimer 
Briefly

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.

Thursday -- March 5, 2026

Locator: 50140B.

Operation EPIC Fury: a quick scan of news overnight suggests nothing new. The Kurd development yesterday will probably turn out to be an incredibly big story. Time to get familiar with the map of Iran: 

• provinces: West Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, Kermanshah, and Ilam
• Zagros Mountain region
• Iranian Kurdistan: Rojhelat
• cities: 
• Kermashah (largest Kurdish-populated city in Iran; major hub for Southern Kurdish
• Saandaj (Sine): capital of Kurdistan Province
• Marivan: a key, rapidly growing city on the border with Kraqi Kurdistan Region
• Saqqez: Kurdistan Province, a hub of Kurdish political activity
• for full list: use a chatbot prompt

Turkey: a minor story that could become a major story -- when and how will Turkey get involved?

Iran's mobile and menacing missile launchers: slowly, but slowly being removed from action, link here:

• ballistic missile launches down 86% since beginning of hostilities;
• drone launches: down 73%;
• loitering a/c over identified sites are taking out majority of such launches.

 

Amazing if accurate: no US civilian casualties reported? 

*************************************
Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $76.65. Up 2.7% overnight; up $2.00 overnight.

New wells reporting: 

• Monday, March 9, 2026: 9 for the month, 115 for the quarter, 115 for the year,
• None.
• Sunday, March 8, 2026: 9 for the month, 115 for the quarter, 115 for the year,
• None.
• Saturday, March 7, 2026: 9 for the month, 115 for the quarter, 115 for the year,
• 41602, conf, BR, Sivertson 6E, 
• 40632, conf, Hess, EN-Hanson A-155-94-0607H-5, 
• Friday, March 6, 2026: 7 for the month, 113 for the quarter, 113 for the year,
• None.
• Thursday, March 5, 2026: 7 for the month, 113 for the quarter, 113 for the year,
• None.

RBN Energy: US propane's wild journey from lab discovery to vital consumer fuel. Link here.

Today, U.S. propane is a $75 billion-a-year business involving a maze of natural gas processing plants and salt caverns connected to pipelines, fractionators, rail facilities, truck racks, retail tanks and export docks. But like many vital energy industries, the propane business began with a handful of scientists and entrepreneurs who experimented with something they didn’t really understand. Over decades of development, propane has powered Olympic kitchens, lifted hot-air balloons across the English Channel, and helped turn a quiet “mount” of southeastern Texas into the center of the global NGL universe. Along the way, propane attracted larger-than-life personalities and true “born to be wild” characters who pushed the business forward in unique ways. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the history of U.S. propane. 

Money Market Fund Assets -- March 5, 2026

Locator: 50139MMF.

My favorite chart. 

Money Market Fund Assets. It will be interesting to see how the Operation EPIC FURY affects MMF assets.

Link here.