Friday, September 3, 2021

Three Hess T R Slette Wells With Jump In Production -- September 3, 2021

The wells:

  • 19189, 1,213, Hess, T R Slette 18-1H 153-98, Truax, t2/11; cum 291K 7/21; full production at link:
  • 23299, 515, Hess, SC-TR Slette 153-98-1819H-2, Truax, t12/12; cum 157K 7/21; full production at link:
  • 23300, 941, Hess, SC-TR Slette 153-98-1819H-3, Truax, t12/12; cum 271K 7/21; full production at link:

Chinese Flu / Wuhan Flu: SARS-CoV-2 And COVID 19

This is page six: September 3, 2020 -- present

The best historic precedent:

The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting from February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world's population at the time – in four successive waves. The death toll is typically estimated to have been somewhere between 17 million and 50 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.

Let's parse that paragraph:

  • February, 1918 --April, 1920: 26 months
  • no vaccine -- didn't even know it was a virus
  • a third of the world's population became infected
    • if herd immunity requires 60 to 75%, then herd immunity was never reached
    • the pandemic ended without any known reason; no vaccine, no herd immunity;
  • death toll: estimated between 17 million and 50 million
  • four successive waves

Coronavirus (USA):

  • December, 2019 - present
  • US population: 332 million
  • September 3, 2021:
    • 41 million cases 
      • 41/332 = 12% -- well below 33% seen in Spanish flu pandemic
      • well below herd immunity which requires 60 to 75% of population having contracted the disease (ignoring the vaccination rate)
    • 665,000 deaths: 1.6% case fatality rate
    • it was 2.4% back in November, 2020

Coronavirusstatistics. By country. By state.

The World In Data.

WSJ - Johns Hopkins data.  

CDC: vaccine rollout.

CDC: MMWR

Vaccination rollout: Bloomberg.

GeneticsLink here. Also, here.

US re-openingtracked here.

New Yorkmortality rate (new link noted June 1, 2020).

THE DISEASE

Long-haulers: link here. It is interesting, there's not been much published in the mainstream press about "long-haulers" any more. Posted September 18, 2021.

UPDATES

September 18, 2021; all this "BS" about a vaccine being rushed to market before knowing long term effects, the polio vaccine was developed in the "early 1950s" and widespread administration began in 1954. On children. The shame. OMG.

September 18, 2021: people seem surprised that more than one dose of Covid-19 vaccine is required. In fact, that's sort of the norm for vaccine, and has anyone ever wondered why the "tetanus" vaccine seems to last as long as ten years? A lot of folks seem to forget that this was a Trump initiative -- Operation Warp Speed, and it was the Biden folks that wanted to slow down the process and warn folks not to take the vaccine.

September 18, 2021: third weekend of college football, and packed stadiums. To the best of my knowledge, no reports of new outbreaks or surges in Covid-19 cases due to these packed stadiums. Of the three states of most interest:

  • Texas: is still getting hit hard; third wave has still not show much sign of slowing;
  • Florida: very, very clear that Florida has turned the corner in the most recent surge;
  • California: had a fairly mild stage and seems to be receding;

September 18, 2021: relative to cases, the death rate from Covid-19 is slightly more than double that in Sweden compared to Israel:

  • Sweden: deaths / cases = 14,734 / 1,144,982 = 0.013
  • Israel: deaths / cases = 7,494 / 1,211,443 = 0.006 

Population (pretty much the same):

  • Sweden: 10 million
  • Israel: 9 million

Cases / million:

  • Sweden: 112,523
  • Israel: 129,900

Deaths / million:

  • US: 2,072
  • Sweden: 1,448
  • Israel: 804

September 18, 2021: White House says US postal workers will follow OSHA vaccine guidance. It was a reporter who first reported, in a tweet, that US postal workers were exempt. OSHA guidelines do not yet mandate vaccines, updated June 10, 2021, which was before the executive order recently signed by Resident Biden. 

September 17, 2021: Alaska once had the highest vaccination rate; now it's in a Covid-19 crisis -- ABC News. Okay. So, was their any analysis "why" things changed? Yup:

Alaska had a strong initial vaccine rollout, delivering doses to remote areas of the state by helicopters, planes, dog sleds and ferries, with additional support from the Indian Health Service and state tribal health system to vaccinate Alaska Natives. Due to the challenges posed by the state’s vast size, it received vaccine allocations monthly as opposed to weekly, giving it the ability to plan ahead and deliver many doses early on.

But, as in the rest of the country, vaccination rates slowly began dropping off over the summer, stagnating with 56.7% of Alaskans fully vaccinated as of Thursday, according to the state’s coronavirus dashboard.

September 3, 2021: push for more information on Ivermectin.

Chevron Looking To Sell Eagle Ford Assets -- September 3, 2021

Link here.

At $70 oil and $4 gas, Chevron estimated the assets’ total proved developed resources - the amount of oil and gas with a 90% or greater probability of profitable extraction - were worth around $1 billion, according to the document.

Including undeveloped inventory, the assets could be valued as high as $3.8 billion at those prices, according to the document. U.S. crude prices were trading at around $69.5 a barrel on Friday, while natural gas was around $4.69 per million British thermal units.

Prospective buyers are likely to bid between $1 billion and $2 billion for the assets, two of the sources said.

Chevron’s Eagle Ford assets, which the company acquired as part of its takeover of Noble Energy last year, span 30,440 net acres and had net production of 30,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2021, with 45% of it being natural gas, according to the marketing document.

The divestment plans come as Chevron reportedly held talks with activist hedge fund Engine No. 1 to detail its plans to cut carbon emissions. Engine No. 1 won three board seats at rival Exxon Mobil in June, using the top U.S. oil producer’s “inadequate” response to climate change as its rallying point.

$2 billion / 30,440 net acres = $66,000 / net acre. And it's a gassy field.

Shares of CVX did not move much today.

Week 35: August 29, 2021 -- September 4, 2021

Top story of the week:

  • Resident Biden still in office.

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story
:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Operators:

Operations:

Halo effect:

Wells:

Fracking:

Pipeline:

Technology:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Perhaps More Wind Towers? September 3, 2021

Uffda! September 3, 2021

Twenty-Six Active Rigs; CLR With Nine Rigs -- September 3, 2021

Active rigs:

$69.29
9/3/202109/03/202009/03/201909/03/201809/03/2017
Active Rigs26*10606356

*From the daily activity report:

  • twenty-six oil and gas rigs
  • CLR with nine rigs
  • two SWD rigs: Zavanna and Koda Resources

Six new permits, #38534 - #38539, inclusive:

  • Operators: MRO (4); Hunt Oil (2);
  • Fields: Bailey (Dunn County); Lake Ilo (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • Hunt Oil has permits for a Quill well and a Halliday well, both in section 10-145-93; sited 310 FSL and between 1565 FWL and 1595 FWL;
    • MRO has permits for four Bailey wells (Woodrow, Porter, Annabelle, Eliza) in NENW section 18-146-93, the wells will be sited 499 FNL and between 2412 FWL and 2643 FEL;

Nine permits renewed:

  • Petroshale (4): a Boone Federal permit; a Crockett Federal permit; a Lewis Federal permit, and a Clark Federal permit, all in McKenzie County
  • XTO (3): three Carus State Federal permits in Dunn County
  • Petro Harvester: an LIG2 well in Burke County;
  • Whiting: a Monson well in McKenzie County

Two permits canceled;

  • EOG: two Clearwater permits in Mountrail County;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37236, 1,928, Slawson, Orca Federal 6-23-26TFH,
  • 37237, 2,258, Slawson, Orca Federal 7-23-26TFH,
  • 37238, 2,225, Slawson, Orca Federal 8-23-26H,

Restraining Orders -- From A Reader -- September 3, 2021

Not DAPL.

Not Texas' heartbeat detection.

Nope, ice cream (;>).


***********************
Apple

AppleCar: 2024? Rumors suggest that is so.

************************
The Literature Page

From The Annotated Mrs Dalloway, Virginia Woolf, edited with an introduction and notes by Merve Emre, c. 2021, footnote, p. 8:
The United Kingdom saw three pandemic waves of  influenza (from the Italian word for "influence") during 1918 - 19, which affected over a quarter of the British population and resulted in the deaths of 228,000 people in Britain alone. 
In a letter written on September 29, 1918, Professor Roy Grist, a physician stationed at Camp Devens in Massachusetts, described his patients' violent speed of death: 
"When brought to the hospital they very rapidly develop the most vicious type of pneumonia that has ever been seen. Two hours after admission they have the mahogany spots over the cheek bones, and a few hours later you can begin to see the cyanosis extending from their ears and spreading all over the face ... it is only a matter of a few hours then until death comes, and it is simply a struggle for air until they suffocate .

2021, Covid-19, United Kingdom, link here. 

Most of the world is in its fourth wave. It's hard to say whether the UK is in its second, third or fourth wave.

  • corona-cases to date: 6.9 million
    • population: 66.65 million
    • percent of cases-to-date/overall population: 10%
  • deaths: 133,047
    • death rate per total cases: 1.93%
  • death rate per population:
    • 133,047 / 66.65 million = 0.2%

TTF -- Again -- September 3, 2021

From January 22, 2021, re-posting:

RBN Energy: how TTF became a premier natural gas trading hub and global benchmark.

In the past few years, the Netherland’s Title Transfer Facility (TTF) overtook the UK’s National Balancing Point (NBP) to become the premier gas trading hub in Europe. 
TTF has gained favor over NBP largely due to its location closer to more markets, supply pipelines, plentiful storage, and also the Netherlands’ Gate LNG import terminal, which has become paramount given Europe’s growing need for imported gas. 
As imports have grown, so has TTF in terms of its volume and its liquidity — a trend that is expected to continue as the European gas market evolves. TTF now shares the stage with Henry Hub and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) as one of the key global benchmarks for LNG and natural gas. 
Though traders use TTF as a price index for LNG, much like its cross-Atlantic peer, Henry Hub, TTF is also heavily influenced by regional pipeline gas and storage levels. Today, we’ll look at the history of Europe’s premier natural gas index and the fundamentals affecting it.

TTF was recently in the news. RBN Energy covered it well.

Idle Rambling -- Nothing About The Bakken -- September 3, 2021

A reader sent me a note that reminded me of blog I've been meaning to post for quite some time.

I am absolutely convinced that most folks need to "retire" and move on after twenty years (more or less) of doing the same thing. 

I have thought about this often over the years. 

I can be criticized for staying as long as I did in my vocation for which I was trained. But having said that, my "jobs" changed significantly over the thirty years I was in the US Air Force. Until the last seven years, I never lost my passion for the military. I "retired on active duty" after twenty-three years, but I used those seven years to prepare for the next chapter in my life. 

My transition from the military to the civilian sector was as good as it could possibly be and that was because I was prepared for retirement.

I've been watching Perry Mason on Hulu for the past few weeks, one or two episodes each night, generally viewing them with my wife, who may enjoy the series even more than I do.

Raymond Burr should have quit acting after that series. Yes, I know actors craze "the stage," and perhaps it was impossible for him to do something different. But he "was Perry Mason" and that's how he should have departed, "exit, stage left."

 I don't think Bob Hope ever left the stage but he certainly had other interests off the stage. 

I recently saw a documentary that discussed the Marx brothers, Frank Sinatra, Jack Benny and others in Palm Springs. Another great example.

The Title Says It All -- September 3, 2021

Breaking news:

Resident Joe Biden will nominate a North Dakota native to serve as the assistant secretary for fossil energy and carbon management in the US Energy Department. 

Fossil energy and carbon management.

Sounds like a dual mandate, like the Fed's dual mandate: inflation and jobs.

Link here

During  some administrations, the "Carbon Management" mandate will take precedence. 

During other administrations, the "Fossil Energy" mandate will take precedence.

EV Buses -- Minnesota Update -- Proterra, Here We Go Again -- September 3, 2021

Link here

Or go direct here.

DULUTH — Ambitious plans to electrify Minnesota transit bus fleets have thus far run headlong into technological problems.

For several years, Duluth and the Twin Cities transit systems have been testing electric buses in an effort to reduce their carbon footprint and air pollution. For the most part, they’re a hit among riders and drivers.

“They’re alright, [a] little more comfortable and a little roomy,” said Cruz Mendoza, a high school teacher, as he rode a bus on his way to a Goodwill in Duluth.

Although the ride is smooth, the transition has been anything but. Duluth recently resolved an array of problems, while Metro Transit’s fleet has been grounded since March of this year because of ongoing problems with their chargers
Electric buses in both cities also can’t go as far as a diesel bus in freezing winters, according to transit officials in Duluth, the Twin Cities and Winnipeg.

South Carolina-made Proterra buses were failing on steep hills in Duluth
. The buses have experienced cracked chassis that forced Philadelphia’s transit agency to mothball their share of Proterras, although both the manufacturer and the Duluth Transit Agency say the cracks are cosmetic.

Proterra spent years working with Duluth — which has procured seven electric buses — to address the issues, embedding a technician in Duluth for weeks to fix the problem.

Search Proterra on the blog here

I guess we might as well use this post as the site to track Proterra. It looks like this story has legs even if the buses don't have promise.

Mondak: Flashback -- One Hundred Years Ago -- Nothing About The Bakken -- September 3, 2021

Link here.

From wiki:

Mondak is a ghost town in Roosevelt County, Montana, United States, which flourished c. 1903–1919, in large measure by selling alcohol to residents of North Dakota, then a dry state.[2]

Mondak—a portmanteau derived from Montana and adjacent North Dakota—was created in 1903, mostly by local investors who realized that profit could be made by selling beer and liquor to North Dakotans. Because of its strategic location on the Missouri River and the Great Northern Railway, Mondak quickly became a thriving village. 
The first building was constructed in 1904, and Mondak soon boasted a bank, two hotels, three general stores, and several grain elevators. It also eventually had a church, a newspaper, a two-story brick school, and a part-time electric generating plant. Locally raised grain and cattle were shipped to Minneapolis on the Great Northern, but the town's most profitable business remained alcohol sales.

During its heyday, Mondak had at least seven saloons and a number of warehouses to store alcohol. Gambling and prostitution were never legal but always winked at. 
There were many accidents involving inebriated men, and the crime rate was high for the size of the community. On April 4, 1913, a black construction worker, J. C. Collins, shot and killed Sheridan County Sheriff Thomas Courtney and a deputized citizen, Richard Bermeister, when they tried to arrest him at the company's office.[5] [6] Hours after Collins was jailed in Mondak, a mob of local residents stormed the building and lynched him, hanging him from a telephone pole and then making "a futile attempt to burn his body."

You Mean Arctic Cooling Is NOT Due to Covid-19? September 3, 2021

I'm waiting for Dr Fauci to weigh in but right now, BBC is reporting that the Arctic cooling we are now seeing is not due to Covid-19.

On another note, not one word about Afghanistan in past two days. As a reminder:

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- September 3, 2021

AAPL: will delay scanning iPhone photographs regarding child sexual abuse. AAPL unchanged after report.

Unemployment rate: dropped from 5.4% to 5.2%. Covid-19:

  • people would rather be broke, homeless and starving than be dead

What does the jobs report really mean today: the $3.5 trillion infrastructure bill one step closer to enactment.

Top stories today:

  • LNG exports
  • high cost of energy in Asia, Europe
    • chart of the day: the natural gas crunch in Europe is worsening; a cold winter could be disastrous;
    • developing countries in Asia under pressure to ditch coal; are not paying equivalent of $115 / boe for natural gas; link here
  • natural gas prices are soaring despite US production records; link here;
  • the new geopolitical conflict in the Arctic; link here;
  • Permian oil production set to hit 18-month high in September (advertisement); link here;
  • auto manufacturers continue to shut down production; chip shortage
  • hospitals in some localities swamped with patients; link here.
    • Alaska Airlines will not mandate their employees be vaccinated
  • US equity markets continue to hit all-time records
  • deaths from Covid-19 in current wave (fourth wave) is exceeding first wave a year ago
    • Sweden bans travelers from Israel; the most vaccinated country in the world, Israel, is undergoing a fourth wave surge so bad, the Swedes won't allow Israelis to visit Sweden; link here.

Keystone XL:

  • SPR special release of 1.5 million bbls for XOM Baton Rouge makes perfect sense; but for context, we usually trade that much  oil in thirty seconds at the close; link here;
  • US demand: 20 million bopd or 600 million bbls/month; special release of 1.5 million bbls = 0.0025 or 0.25% of the monthly demand; reminder: implied crude oil in the US is now trending toward 23 million bopd
  • oil from SPR will be needed; hope it's the right type. Lots of issues with Mars blend now; Pemex production is down. Wouldn't it really be nice to have more capacity on a directly pipeline from Canada for WCS to the Gulf right now. Link here.
  • Centrica warns natural gas prices in the UK and continental Europe could spiral higher from already record levels this winter, with consumers effectively in a bidding war with Asia for limited supplies; could get so bad some industries may need to shut down; link here.

Other news:

  • Walmart raises minimum wage to $12 / hour -- link to WSJ;

Friday Morning -- WTI Holds Above $70 -- September 3, 2021

The numbers:

  • Bitcoin: up over 1,300 points; maintains over 50,000 
  • WTI: $70.38
  • DXY: 92.226, up 0.012
  • TYT: 1.299%; up 0. 009; after jobs report, jumps to 1.321%, up 0.031;
  • August jobs report:
  • badly misses consensus -- wow, wow, wow -- a big disappointment -- terrible news
    • increased a minuscule 235,00 vs 720,000 anticipated
    • incredibly poor number
    • the big miss: huge influx into private/public education; didn't happen
      •  bus driver shortage -- are you kidding me?
    • Dow Jones turns negative on these numbers, but then quickly recovers (never mind)
    • Jay Powell: say what?
    • not even mentioned that car manufacturers shutting down for up to eight weeks; this will affect the September numbers; 

Top stories today:

  • LNG exports
  • high cost of energy in Asia, Europe
  • auto manufacturers continue to shut down production; chip shortage
  • Cathie Wood: confused?
  • hospitals in some localities swamped with patients
  • Alaska Airlines will not mandate their employees be vaccinated
  • US equity markets continue to hit all-time records
  • deaths from Covid-19 in current wave (fourth wave) is exceeding first wave a year ago
    • a year ago: 20 million jobs lost
    • today: 600,000 jobs lot
    • tells me everything I need to know

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

Pending. Walking Sophia to the bus stop.

*Active rigs: current data provided COB in daily activity report. 

$70.38
9/3/202109/03/202009/03/201909/03/201809/03/2017
Active Rigs24*10606356

No wells coming off confidential list

RBN Energy: EPNG outage worsens gas transportation constraints to the US west

The U.S. West Coast natural gas market is at the forefront of the energy transition, but regional natural gas prices are instead signaling the need for construction of newbuild gas pipeline capacity to the region. Without it, markets west of the Permian Basin have been hard-pressed to take advantage of the supply growth in West Texas and have struggled to consistently maintain adequate natural gas supplies for some time now. To make matters worse, last month, a segment of El Paso Natural Gas Pipeline (EPNG), a primary artery for moving Permian gas west, experienced a rupture, further tightening supplies. Today, we highlight the major market impacts and longer-term implications of the pipeline blast and subsequent flow restrictions.

First Things First -- Is Your McDonald's Ice Cream Machine Working? -- September 3, 2021

Updates

Later, 1:03 p.m.: restraining orders. 

Original Post 

Link here. Status in selected cities:

  • Williston: one McDonald's, status unknown
  • Minot: three McDonald's, all working
  • Grand Forks: most working
  • Fargo: most working
  • nationwide: about 20% are not working