Thursday, March 23, 2017

EOG's Liberty LR (Long Reach) Wells In Parshall Oil Field

EOG with three more Liberty LR permits, reported earlier today.

The graphic:

 
The wells:
  • 33434, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 109-1109H,
  • 33433, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 42-1109H,
  • 33432, drl, EOG, Liberty LR 43-1109H,
  • 30595, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 30-2321H,
  • 30594, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 108-2321H,
  • 30593, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 29-2321H,
  • 23958, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 107-1109H,
  • 20255, 892, EOG, Liberty LR 15-26H, t4/12; cum 361K 5/19;
  • 20254, 980, EOG, Liberty LR 20-26H, t12/11; cum 338K 5/19;
  • 20038, 625, EOG, Liberty LR 12-11H, t4/12; cum 256K 5/19;
  • 20037, 790, EOG, Liberty LR 17-11H, t6/11; cum 341K 5/19;
  • 19802, 1,215, EOG, Liberty LR 18014H, t10/11; cum 366K 5/19;
  • 19721, 1,063, EOG, Liberty LR 19-23H, t3/11; cum 377K 5/19;
  • 19720, 510, EOG, Liberty LR 14-23H, t4/11; cum 285K 5/19;
  • 19231, 398, EOG, Liberty LR 13-14H, t12/11; cum 331K 5/19;
  • 18979, PNC, EOG, Liberty LR XX-23H,
  • 18828, 1,066, EOG, Liberty LR 16-36H, t2/11; cum 410K 5/19;
******************************* 
A Note For The Granddaughters 

My wife and I drive the three granddaughters to almost every "event" in their lives: soccer, water polo, daycare, dental appointments, elementary school, middle school, everything, you name it.

I love it. It is incredibly relaxing. I'm "free" after we drive them to school in the morning until about 2:00 p.m. every day when we start picking them up after school. Several nights each week I am at the indoor pool watching the older one at water polo practice. On the weekends I am often driving across Texas taking the middle granddaughter to soccer practice.

The older granddaughter, age 14 this summer, will soon be learning to drive. I use these driving opportunities to talk to her about driving.

Tonight we had the opportunity to reinforce the importance of always having an "escape route."

It was well after dark, coming back from water polo. We were on the "fast" part of the road back to Grapevine, where there are about six lanes across (in one direction) and lots of lane changing due to three major highways merging. It's quite sporty, lots of fun. I always enjoy it, going from the far right lane where we merge to the far left lane for the exit.

Tonight, fortunately, we were in lane five (of six); in lane four a two-car wreck, with the lead car part way into our lane. It it interesting how the brain works; it always takes the brain a moment or two to sort out something that is not expected. A stopped car in your lane when the traffic is moving at 60 to 70 mph is unexpected, and it takes a moment for one's brain to register that something is amiss.

Once it registered, I quickly looked over my left shoulder -- relatively free -- and moved slightly into lane six. A car in that lane moved slightly unto the shoulder -- we both sped up to get past the wreck. It appeared it was a non-injury accident.

After we were well clear, my granddaughter and I debriefed each other (as we would say in the military) about what we had just seen, what everyone did to avoid the accident. It was a great opportunity to talk to her about continually watching traffic 360-degrees when traveling on the freeway -- knowing who was coming up on "your tail"; who was passing on your left, or right; and, always thinking of escape routes if needed.

And then we went back to what we were talking about before the incident: binary base. She had told me that there are 10 types of people in the world: those who understand binary, and those who do not. LOL.

Total Eclipse of the Heart, Bonnie Tyler

Oasis With Nine More Spratley Permits -- March 23, 2017


The Spratley Wells

33528, 428, Oasis, Spratley 5494 44-13 7B, Alkali Creek, t1/18; cum 98K 4/19;
33527, 1,203, Oasis, Spratley 5494 44-13 6T, Alkali Creek, t1/18; cum 310K 4/19; big well;
33526, 649, Oasis, Spratley 5494 44-13 5B, Alkali Creek, t1/18; cum 229K 4/19;
33525, 786, Oasis, Spratley 5494 44-13 4T, Alkali Creek, t1/18; cum 295K 4/19;
33524, 930, Oasis, Spratley 5494 44-13 3BX, Alkali Creek, t1/18; cum 360K 4/19;
33442, 801, Oasis, Spratley 5494 14-13 15T, Alkali Creek, 4 sections, 50 stages; 19.9 million lbs; mesh, medium, medium ceramic, t11/17; cum 298K 4/19
33441, 1,746, Oasis, Spratley 5494 14-13 15T, Alkali Creek, t11/17; cum252K 4/19;
33440, 683, Oasis, Spratley 5494 14-13 14B, Alkali Creek, t11/17; cum 287K 4/19;
33439, SI/NC-->569, Oasis, Spratley 5494 14-13 13T, Alkali Creek,  t11/17; cum 233K 4/19;
33438, 1,189, Oasis, Spratley 5494 14-13 12B, Alkali Creek, t11/17; cum 276K 4/19;
30963, 657, Oasis, Spratley 5494 34-13 11T, Alkali Creek, t11/17; cum 291K 4/19;
30962, 810, Oasis, Spratley 5494 34-13 10B, Alkali Creek, t1/18; cum 272K 4/19;
30961, 741, Oasis, Spratley 5494 34-13 9T, Alkali Creek, t12/11; cum 269K 4/19;
30960, 840, Oasis, Spratley 5494 34-13 8B, Alkali Creek, t1/18; cum 265K 4/19;
30959, PNC, Oasis, Spratley 5494 34-13 7T3, Alkali Creek, 
19946, 1,474, Oasis, Spratley 5494 34-13H, Alkali Creek, cased hole, 4.4 million lbs (sand + ceramic), t10/11; cum 626K 4/19; still producing at 3,000 bbls/month (4/19); see this post; then a huge jump 12/17;
Updates

November 5, 2018: update of a Spratley well

August 22, 2017: wells updated; many wells went from loc to drl. Several new DUCs. Three rigs in the area; two rigs drilling Spratley wells.

May 4, 2017: Oasis with permits for a 5-well Spratley pad, SESE 13-154-94, Alkali Creek, as of this date.

Original Post
Anyone want to hazard a guess what the production in #19946 will do when nine (9) neighboring wells are completed? Don't reply; it's a rhetorical question and we won't know for quite some time.

The Graphic:



The existing well:
  • 19946, 1,474, Oasis, Spratley 5494 34-13H, Alkali Creek, cased hole, 4.4 million lbs (sand + ceramic), t10/11; cum 475K 1/17; 
Production profile for the first five months of this well (fourth column is oil production; last column is amount of natural gas flared):
BAKKEN1-2012312117821855526422278022278
BAKKEN12-2011312110221194512422200022200
BAKKEN11-2011302846028673744329939029939
BAKKEN10-20113142330417161486144531044531
BAKKEN9-2011151334712722382514042014042

Might As Well Do It Again -- March 23, 2017

Results of the Poll

Later, 4:28 p.m. Central Time: will the US House actually pass the bill?
  • yes: 23%
  • no: 77% 
Original Post
 
About 75% of respondents said the US House would not vote on the Ryan-Trump health care plan today; and they were correct.

We might as well do it again, but this time the president has said he will move on to other things if the vote is not held Friday or if the bill "fails."

This time the poll is slightly different: will the US House actually pass the bill?
  • yes
  • no
Poll at the sidebar at the right.

US Petroleum Demand Highest For February Since 2008 -- API -- March 23, 2017

The article over at API has a gazillion data points in it and it's a bit confusing, mixing apples (petroleum deliveries) and oranges (gasoline deliveries) but it's a nice snapshot in time.

But think about this: petroleum demand in February was the highest for any February since 2008. If I recall correctly, President Bush II was still president in February, 2008. That means petroleum demand was lower for every February in President Obama's two-term tenure. I don't know if that means anything but it's an interesting data point. I guess.

Some other data points from the article:
  • US crude oil production broke the 9-million-bopd threshold for the first time since March 2016
  • February gasoline deliveries are still down year-over-year but were up month-over-month
  • total motor gasoline deliveries decreased almost 4%  from February to average 8.9 million bopd -- but that was still the second highest February demand in 9 years
************************************
Cleaning Out My In Box

Hitch 22
A Memoir
Christopher Hitchens
c. 2010
DDS: 920.073 HIT

In the prologue Christopher Hitchens mentions that he was writing this book in 2008, knowing that he was soon to die.


In the very first chapter, Hitchens quotes Graham Greene: The Power and the Glory --
There is always a moment in childhood when the door opens and lets the future in ...
I vividly remember the day in my childhood when the door opened and I saw my future. I was in my eighth grade of school. I was a voracious reader at time. I had just told my dad that I wanted to be an archaeologist "when I grew up." It was his response to that comment that was "the door" that opened to my future.

Speaking of Graham Green,e I have read the 3-volume biography of Graham Greene and but have only read one or two of his books. I read him after reading Joseph Conrad early in 2004 or thereabouts.

Hitchens' memoir has eighteen chapters, or essays. Having read only a couple of them, this is a book that should be read over a period of time, reading only one essay at a time, and perhaps over a day or two. He packs a lot into on essay.

One "anecdote" in the book and then I will move on. The author was born in 1949; his dad was in the British Navy. At the age of three he was on Malta before his dad was re-assigned to Rosyth, Scotland. Of Malta, Hitchens writes:
A jewel set in the sea between Sicily and Libya, Malta has been for centuries a place of the two-edged sword between the Christian and Muslim worlds. Its population is so overwhelmingly Roman Catholic that there are, within the walled city, a great plethora of ornate churches, the cathedral being decorated by the murals of Caravaggio himself, that seductive votary of the higher wickedness.
The island withstood one of the longest Turkish sieges in the history of "Christendom." But the Maltese tongue is a dialect version of the Arabic spoken in the Maghreb and is the only Semitic language to be written in Latin script.
If you happen to attend a Maltese Catholic church during Mass, you will see the priest raising the Communion Host and calling "Allah," because this after all is the local word for "god."
***************************
The 100 Most Influential Women Of All Time:
A Ranking, Past and Present
Deborah G. Felder 
c. 1996
DDS: 920 FEL

Obviously this book needs to be updated, but I was curious who made the list and who didn't, back in 1996. The names on the list that most surprised me:
#100: Lucille Ball, that she made the list at all
#98: Edith Head, the fact that I even knew who she was
#96: Kathryn Hepburn, for being so far down the list
Names on the list that made me smile:
#50: Coco Chanel, I've seen "her Mediterranean home"
Of interest:
#1: Eleanor Roosevelt
#10: The Virgin Mary
#75: Hillary Rodham Clinton; if only she had campaigned in Wisconsin; visited Michigan one more time; and the Russians had not interfered, everything would have been so different.
With rare exception: no singers, no actresses.

So, who is Deborah G. Felder that she has the "street cred" to write such a book? She had been the editor for eight years, Scholastic, Inc., before becoming a full-time, free-lance writer. It appears her target audience is teenagers. She and her husband divide their time between Middletown, CT, and Cape Cod, MA.

******************************
Idle Ramblings 
Originally Posted March 6, 2017

I don't think I could be in a better mood.

I just spent the afternoon with Sophia, our almost-3-year-old granddaughter who is so much fun. I pick her up every day from Tutor Time and spend two to three hours with her before I take her home to her parents. We have so much fun together. If one gets into her "world," she is the easiest to take care of.

We both enjoyed a most beautiful sunset and the pink clouds, though she said the clouds were orange. I think they were pink.

And now, she is back home and I'm enjoying Mojo.com's look at the top ten Coen Brother movies.

If you are unfamiliar with the Coen Brothers, and if you watch the video, be forewarned: lots of "personal" violence.

Coen Brothers Movies, Mojo.com
 
I agree completely with Mojo's rankings. I've seen most of the movies (more than once). The one exception: Ladykillers. I've never seen it and never will; everyone agrees it was awful. I think The Big Lebowski comes closest to my "vision" of the Trump White House. Fargo was #2 on their list (I would have put The Big Lebowski as #2) and No Country For Old Men as #1. Agree completely with that. Although I can watch The Big Lebowski over and over; not so with No Country For Old Men. Way too violent. But it did win four Oscars.

Active Rigs Steady At 49; Domestic Terrorism Along The DAPL -- March 23, 2017

Active rigs:


3/23/201703/23/201603/23/201503/23/201403/23/2013
Active Rigs4932104198187

No wells coming off confidential list Friday. Second consecutive day of now wells scheduled to come off confidential list.

Five (5) new permits:
  • Operator: Oasis
  • Field: Alkali Creek (Mountrail)
  • Comments: five Spratley 5494 permits, all in NENE 13-154-94 
One permit renewed:
  • Petro-Hunt: an M Thorson permit in Burke County
DAPL: twice a day I check for update on DAPL. Earlier today, sent to me by a reader (thank you): no oil flow yet in DAPL, from The Bismarck Tribune. This is like putting water on the stove and then watching / waiting for it to boil. Takes forever. What's the reason now?
According to the Associated Press, authorities in Iowa and South Dakota are investigating damage to above-ground valve equipment, apparently caused by someone blowtorching holes through the metal works. No such incidents have been reported in North Dakota.
****************************
The Hollywood Sign

A few years ago I actually hiked up to the "Hollywood sign" -- or as close as one is allowed to get.

The [London] Guardian has a very, very good human interest regarding "current events."
In 1923, the miles of hiking and bridle trails around the sign were described in a promotional document as “beyond comparison”, and the thousands of Angelenos and out-of-town visitors who descend on the area every weekend think that’s still true.
Now, though, the gate that Sheffner and many of his fellow residents have been using to access those trails is about to shut for good, after a long-running fight between those who think that living in the shadow of a major tourist attraction is a blessing, and a noisy minority who not only see it as a curse but have filed a pair of lawsuits.
Hikers and tourists will now be redirected to the next canyon over, where there are only intermittent partial views of the sign. Not only is the Bronson Canyon trail more arduous and more than a mile longer than the Beachwood access trail, but the gate closing risks shifting all the nuisance problems into someone else’s backyard.
That failure was triggered by a court ruling in February aimed at settling a suit brought by a privately owned horse ranch near the Beachwood Canyon gate. The ranch said that thousands of pedestrians coming on to its access road were interfering with its business, and the judge in the case sympathized.
I know exactly what horse ranch they are talking about.

I would hate to be the judge on this case. 

To Frack One Well: 200,000 Truckloads Of Sand -- WSJ -- March 23, 2017

Note: I may have errors in my comments section. I won't be able to correct them until later. I'm out and about. For now, I would recommend sticking with the WSJ story.


200,000 truckloads of sand to frack one well; no wonder some folks want to ban fracking. Anyway, back to the story:

This story has been reported on the blog for at least the past two years -- it began with an article by Mike Filloon. He was a bit early perhaps but now everyone is reporting it: the latest threat to US oil drillers -- the rocketing price of sand. At The Wall Street Journal:
  • pushing towards $40/ton
  • up from $15 to $20/ton in 2H16
  • demand could outstrip supply by 2018 (next year)
  • sector will need 120 million tons, double the demand in 2014 at the height of the US drilling boom
  • accounts for 5% to 7% of the cost of a well 4Q16
  • in 3Q14: record at $50/ton
  • Permian: 2,000 lbs/foot on wells that measured 5,500 feet
  • Louisiana: Chesapeake record -- 50.2 million lbs; well roughly 1.8 miles long (typical lengeth for a long lateral in the Bakken)
  • Pioneer: has its own sand mines; will test at 3,000 lbs/foot this year (2017)
  • 5 million lbs: 100 railcars
  • West Texas: using twice that amount/well -- requires two mile-long unit trains (a unit train = 100 boxcars)
Comments:
  • nothing new
  • sand remains the least of their costs
  • Permian: perhaps the biggest user of sand/well
  • Bakken: at low end
  • SCOOP/STACK: ?
I track this issue with a tag: Fracking_Sand.

From FAQ:
  • more than 75 semi-trucks (18-wheelers) of frack sand are required to frack one well (2014) [Update, December 31, 2016: for every 4 million lbs of sand, 100 18-wheelers are needed; for an EOG well fracked with 20 million lbs, 500 18-wheelers]
  • The WSJ at the link said this: shipping 5 million pounds of sand can require 100 railcars and 200,000 truck loads, according to a 2013 study by the University of Wisconsin
  • either I'm missing something or they're using F-150 pick-ups to move fracking sand in Wisconsin 
  • Disclaimer: I'm always making mistakes comparing railcar capacity (sand) vs trucks (sand) but 200,000 truck loads seems incorrect. One can google it. One site: http://www.marquettetrans.com/page/Why_Marquette.aspx#tabs1-cargo
From a reader who knows trucking:
  • a typical semi hauls 48,000 lbs (unless road restrictions, then 10 tons per axle)
  • total semi, trailer, and cargo weigh: 80,000 lbs
  • 200,000 trucks (per the WSJ article) x 48,000 lbs = 9.6 billion lbs of sand
That's a lot of sand for one frack.
*************************
Reposting

From my linked site above: I can never remember this stuff so I'm posting it again, from an earlier post, October 15, 2016:
Start with this: each hopper car carries 100 tons of fracking sand.

Some data points for newbies:
  • the shale revolution began with fracking sand, maybe 500,000 pounds per well in one stage. BEXP broke new ground when they began routinely using 4 million lbs to frack a well. Since then, EOG has taken the lead. 
  • EOG is using upwards of 30 million lbs of sand to frack a well in the Permian, others using similar amounts in the STACK.
  • operators in the Bakken appear to be using about 8 million lbs as the standard, though there are outliers, mostly at 10 million lbs, but there are some Bakken wells fracked with as much as 20 million lbs (rare).
  • there appears to be a movement away from ceramic (incredibly expensive)
  • one rail hopper car can carry 100 tons of fracking sand.
  • a unit train is generally 115 cars. Some are as long as 130 cars.
  • it takes 4 - 5 18-wheelers to empty a single hopper car.
  • 30 million lbs of sand (one Permian well) / 200,000 lbs (hopper car) = 150 hopper cars = 750 18-wheelers (5 trucks per rail car). 
  • 4 million lbs of sand (one Bakken well) / 200,000 lbs (hopper car) = 20 hopper cars = 100 18-wheelers (5 trucks per rail car).
 I often make simple arithmetic errors. Let me know if I've made an error here. So how many trucks of fracking sand for a well fracked with 20 million lbs?
    • 4 million lbs = 100 18-wheelers
    • 20 million lbs = 500 18-wheelers

State Department Approves Keystone Pipeline -- March 23, 2017

Implications. Best part of this story -- clear discussion re: heavy oil vs light oil.
The heavy oil could displace oil that comes from other places outside the U.S., like Saudi Arabia or Iraq. Some heavy crude suppliers have seen waning production in recent years, like Mexico and Venezuela.
"If we get additional quantities of heavy Canadian crude, which is preferred by many refineries in the U.S., we might turn out to sell more quantities of [U.S.] light, sweet crude to the rest of the world," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
The Gulf Coast refineries mainly refine heavy crudes, whereas U.S. shale drillers pump light, sweet crude. Light, sweet crude is mainly refined on the east and west coasts.
"All this additional crude oil should keep our input costs lower, which will make our refined products even more competitive," said John Kilduff of Again Capital. The U.S. is a net exporter of refined product already. Government data shows that the U.S. last week exported 1.2 million barrels a day of distillates, which includes fuels like diesel. The U.S. also exported 592,000 barrels a day of gasoline last week.
Still waiting for news of DAPL oil flowing. The reason for the delay: domestic terrorism along DAPL delays flow of oil by at least a week.

Worth Repeating -- E&P CAPEX And Production -- March 23, 2017

RBN Energy: E&Ps expanding stakes in the hottest plays: winners and losers.  This may be the most interesting graphic at the link:


CAPEX and production: from 2014 to 2017, expenditures (oil E&P) dropped from $63 billion (2014) to $18 billion (2016). Assuming it takes 2 -12 months to bring new production on-line, the fact that oil production in 2017 will actually increase is quite remarkable.

Oil production in 2017 is estimated to exceed each of the preceding three years, even as CAPEX is significantly less. 

But, for natural gas the numbers are even more impressive. Look at that: CAPEX drops from $12 billion in 2014 to $5 billion in 2016, and gas production jumps from 0.8 billion boe in 2014 to 1 billion boe in 2017.

The Energy And Market Page, T+62 -- March 23, 2017

Late-Morning Trading

After being down at the opening and flat most of the morning, all of a sudden the market is up 53 points. Is this the first indication that the US House might have the votes for the RyanTrumpHealthCareBill? Now up 67 points (10:15 a.m. Central Time).

WTI: about 25 cents below $48.

***************************
Original Post
 
Top story for the day: North Dakota continues to lead in honey production -- 13th consecutive year -- no contest, see chart below. Peak honey? What peak honey? Data points:
  • ND producers with five or more colonies made almost 38 million pounds, up 4% from previous year
  • 485,000 honey-producing colonies: average yield up four pounds to 78 pounds per colony
  • prices about the same: $1.73 (2016) vs $1.80 (2015)
Futures: holding steady despite incredible headwinds, including recent terrorist attack in Great Britain. In the "old" days these things really spooked traders.

Fargo-Moorhead population growth: continues to grow; closing in on 240,000.

Oil patch job fair: sounds like it was an overwhelming success.

**************************************
Honey Production

By state, from Bee Culture, 2015 data: ND, SD, MT, FL, MN, CA. 


The Political Page, T+62 -- March 23, 2017

Will the US House vote today on the Ryan-Trump Health Care plan? The GOP needs 23 "no" votes in the US House to stop the RTHCP. Quick poll for today:
  • yes: 26%
  • no: 74%
Previous poll: who will you miss most --
  • Chuck Barris (Gong Show): 100%
  • Barack Obama (Never-Ending Apology Tour): 0%
Did Hillary and Rex have same email manager? Exxon admits it lost up to a full year's worth of "global change" emails. Who will be the first to blame Russia?

Best quote of the day, from Karl Rove, on Gorsuch:
Three days being questioned by midgets.
Katie from London. Blind. Deaf. Dumb

*********************
Later: The US House Will NOT Vote On The R-T HCP Today

E&P Winners And Losers -- RBN Energy -- March 23, 2017

Active rigs:


3/23/201703/23/201603/23/201503/23/201403/23/2013
Active Rigs4832104198187

RBN Energy: E&Ps expanding stakes in the hottest plays: winners and losers.  This may be the most interesting graphic at the link:


Scott Adams: some fake news about me (Scott) from Bloomberg.