Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Notes From All Over -- Late Night Edition -- July 13, 2021

Handguns: banning sales to those under 21 is ruled unconstitutional. Marks first time a high-level court -- the Fourth Circuit Court, in this case -- has extended the right to bear arms to people under 21. Link to The WSJ I could be mistaken but there seemed to be a lot of 18-year-olds possessing handguns when I was in the US Air Force.

Boeing: how much trouble is the company really in? Link to The WSJ. Should Boeing still be in the Dow 30? 

Natural gas: record prices. The trifecta: Chinese demand, heat in the Pacific Northwest, and drought in Brazil. Link to The WSJ

Vanguard: plans first-ever corporate acquisition. Will buy JustInvest to help advisers customize portfolios. Link to The WSJ. Vanguard must be feeling the heat of Schwab. Does the article mention Schwab? Nope, unless I missed it. But it does say this: "Owned by investors in its U.S. funds, Vanguard has never done an acquisition. It must keep reinvesting any returns for its clients and lowering the cost of investing for its shareholders."

A Musical Interlude

Andrea Ochoa:

This song is so deep and meaningful to me. Struggling as a single mother. There was time where I was beginning to try to be independent on my own and provide for my son. I've had some hard times and this song spoke to me as I cried to God telling him I tried. Begged, and borrowed money to keep a roof over us. I made it đŸ’› thank you Lana I love you ❤️ thank you God for never leaving me alone.

Scout Tickets With Typographical Errors -- July 13, 2021

See if you can spot the errors. 

Hint: the error is the same in both screenshots. 

Answer tomorrow if I don't forget.

Screenshots from the NDIC website, July 13, 2021:

Covid-19: Vaccinations Have Hit A Wall -- July 13, 2021

CDC data here

I doubt if anyone cares, but holy mackerel, the Covid-19 vaccine data released today by the CDC -- I don't think -- has ever been worse. 

Tuesday's data has always been one of the worse days but today's is particularly bad. 

The government distributed an all-time low (one doesn't consider deliveries on the weekends or holidays): only 235,410 doses were distributed to health care facilities. In other words, health care facilities are no longer ordering much vaccine from the US government; they have way more on hand than they can get rid of. Previously posted:

In addition, the number of vaccinations given in the past twenty-four hours broke below 345,000 for the first time. 

Much could be said. 

It certainly doesn't help that Guillain-Barré has now been associated with the vaccine.

Much could be said. 

It will be an interesting autumn. 

I wonder what the market holds for us tomorrow.

Notes From All Over -- The All-Star Edition -- July 13, 2021

Legacy Fund. Link here.

North Dakota’s trust fund for oil taxes is realizing hefty earnings due to a rebounding economy and better-than-expected stock investments, officials said Tuesday.

Revenue from the Legacy Fund for the two-year budget cycle that ended last month was about $872 million, up from the $736 million that budget writers and the Legislature had forecast.

Alaska pipeline: is this the end? From Felicity Bradstock:

An area of thawing permafrost is threatening a stretch of a major Alaskan pipeline as the structure experiences damages from the changing weather  An 810-foot section of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline is under threat as the braces of the structure have begun to tilt and bend as the slope above it is slowly thawing. 

The Alaska Department of Natural Resources is responding to the hazard by installing 100 thermosyphon tubes over 120 days to pull heat out of permafrost and re-enforce the slope to hopefully avoid major damage. 

This is the first instance of ‘slope creep’ threatening the huge pipeline since its construction in 1977, according to local records.

Wendy's: second-place national burger chain

  • new push for this breakfast item: Wendy's Honey Butter Chicken Biscuit
  • taking on Whataburger's Honey Butter Chicken Biscuit
  • link here.

Baseball: tell me again why the All-Star game was moved from Atlanta, GA, to Coors Field, Colorado?

  • Oh, that's right; something about voter-ID. LOL

Apple, Inc.: I don't have an Apple card. I would like one but for various reasons, it's not gonna happen.  Cash .. checks ... credit cards ... the next big thing ... Apple Pay Later ... link here. It looks like a two-month interest-free loan using any one of your existing credit cards. The news sent "buy-now-pay-later" plans plummeting.

Hulu: what I'm watching now, The Ladykillers. I've always wanted to see this Coen Bros movie but never had the chance. But here it is. Wow. I never liked the trailer and I understand it was not one of their best, but as a hard-core Coen Bros fan, I'm curious.

From The Queen -- An Executive Order -- July 13, 2021


Crescent Point Energy With Four New Permits; Fourteen Permits Renewed; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- July 13, 2021 -- July 13, 2021

Back to the Bakken

Bakken DUCs: June, 2021, data

Permian DUCs: June, 2021, data.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2311566759

Five new permits, #38420 - #38424, inclusive --

  • Operator: Crescent Point Energy
  • Field: Winner (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Crescent Point Energy has permits for five Reed wells in SWSE 10-158-100; Winner oil field;
    • the wells will be sited 305 FSL and 1930 FEL and 2030 FEL; 
    • the well heads will be sited twenty-five feet from each other;

Four wells have been plugged or are producing:

  • 36771, conf, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-9, Beaver Lodge, t--; cum --;
  • 37366, conf, Enerplus, Amphibolite 147-93-08D-05H, t--; cum --; oil runs of 17K 5/21;
  • 37988, conf, CLR, Harms Federa1 18-33H, t--; cum --;
  • 37989, conf, CLR, Harms Federal 17-33H1; t--; cum --;

Fourteen permits renewed:

  • Sinclair (13): five Forest USA permits; six Yauch permits; and, two Horovitz permits, all in McKenzie County:
  • XTO: one HBU Marmon Federal permit in Williams County

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37793, drl/A, CLR, Morris 14-26HSL2, Corral Creek, first production, --; t--; cum --;
  • 37780, drl/A, CLR, Brandvik 12-25H, Corral Creek, first production, --; t--; cum --;
  • 37795, drl/A, CLR, Carson Peak 14-35HSL2, Corral Creek, first production, --; t--; cum --;
  • 37779, drl/A, CLR, State Weydahl 12-36H, Corral Creek, first production, --; t--; cum --;

Dry hole:

  • 37672, Minnkota Power Coop, J-REOC1, Oliver Co

Notes From All Over -- July 13, 2021

BP bets the farm on renewable energy and EV charging. Link here.

BP has bought out its private equity partner in a chain of US fuel stations, marking a return to the owned-and-operated model for retail sites in the US as energy majors bet on strong growth in electric vehicle charging and convenience stores. 
The group will take full control of 208 Thorntons sites, buying out ArcLight Capital Partners’ majority stake, as part of BP’s plans to double earnings from its “convenience and mobility business” to $10bn globally by 2030. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. 
“BP aims to increase the number of strategic convenience sites in its global network from around 2,000 today to more than 3,000 by 2030,” the company said. “Convenience retail is evolving amid rising demand from consumers with ever-changing needs.”

The Thorntons sites, which are based across Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Tennessee and Florida, are primarily in areas served by BP oil refineries including Whiting, Indiana and Toledo, Ohio. 
The move back into retail is something of a reversal for the oil industry, which largely sold off or franchised its branded fuel stations in the past decade, as companies poured capital into oil exploration and production while prices rose.

Leonard Nimoy -- Video Of The Day -- July 13, 2021

A huge thanks to the reader who sent me this.

Link here: https://twitter.com/wilderfortruth/status/1414681859099930625?s=21.

Notes From All Over -- The WFH Edition -- July 13, 2021

Gatorade: flying off the shelves. Who owns Gatorade? For $230 million, PepsiCo bought Quaker Oats in 2001 and now owns the Gatorade brand.

FANG: Carl Quintanilla takes credit for the FANG acronym; Jim Cramer says he never gets credit due him. LOL. But, if true, that's interesting about FANG.  

AAPL: surging. Up almost $2.00 / share today.

Oil: WTI, up; oil companies, down.

Instant gratification: first, look at the screenshot --

Now, my thoughts:

Black Widow was huge. Absolutely huge. But such "events" / movies will be the exception. This is the problem for movies like Black Widow. Going to the movie theater is generally a group experience: a couple, a trio, a family, a small group of friends. But, now, folks can see these things immediately by paying a premium to stream it at the same time it's released downtown. By the time the group (the couple, the trio, the family, the small group) finally gets a date scheduled, most have seen the movie and have less interest in going downtown to see the movie again.

Virgin Galactic: in free fall. The stock. Not the plane. 

The best business TV: the one-hour on CNBC with unscripted conversation among Jim Cramer, Carl Quintanilla, and David Faber, [Mark Haines (1946 - 2011) was the gold standard], between 8:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. CT.

The second best business TV: FastMoney (this is the one-hour show hosted by Melissa prior to the Jim Cramer's MadMoney show).

Food and beverage: will hardly be hurt by inflation; folks will pay whatever it takes to get their cereal, and their Starbucks. Trust me on this one. 

Number of days in past twelve days that US equity markets have hit new all-time highs: most since the 1960s. CNBC. Ten days in past twelve days: US equity markets hit new all-time highs.

The Goldman Sachs numbers were so good, the obvious question needs to be asked: why make workers working from home return to work .

Productivity, efficiency: has increased remarkably due to the pandemic. The effects will be lasting. 

Black swan: why have we heard "nothing" about the "black swan" (2020). The light bulb just went on: black swans are generally associated with single companies and something financial advisors worry about and protect themselves with a diverse portfolio; the 2020 "black swan" affected large segments of the global economy; it did not limit itself to one company, thus the "black swan" meme does not work. Let's check wiki: I'm wrong. Isn't this interesting? See TIL below.

Used cars: accounts for one-third of the increase in the CPI numbers that were released this morning. Take out "used cars" component, what would the CPI numbers be today? Again, the analysis regarding used cars would be interesting:

  • chip shortage
  • new car shortage
  • new cars incredibly expensive
  • after one year WFH, folks returning to work
  • college students returning to campus
  • avoidance of mass transportation due to Covid-19 / Delta variant worries 

From twitter, used cars:


  • Jim Cramer: scathing remarks regarding bad news coming from Boeing
  • Jim Cramer has always liked Boeing; major reversal; it will be interesting to see how the #1 CNBC apologist, Phil LeBeau will respond to most recent news coming out of Boeing;
  • Cramer says he "is just sick about this (Boeing), a national treasure"
  • Boeing:
    • huge debt load
    • down 2.5% in pre-market trading
    • up 36% in past one year

TIL: Covid-19 Was Not A Black Swan

From wiki:

Based on the author's criteria: 

  • the event is a surprise (to the observer). 
  • the event has a major effect. 
  • after the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals. 

According to Taleb, as it was expected with great certainty that a global pandemic would eventually take place, the COVID-19 pandemic is not a black swan, but is considered to be a white swan; such an event has a major effect, but is compatible with statistical properties.

White swan: "A global pandemic is clearly a white swan -- an event that is certain to occur at some point."

Today's Random Screenshot From The Bakken -- July 13, 2021


Active Rigs Hold Steady At Twenty-Three; No Wells Coming Off Confidential List --- July 13, 2021

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2311566759

No wells coming off confidential list today.

RBN Energy: setbacks to Iranian, OPEC+ talks rattle market for crude oil. 

Crude oil is demonstrating yet again its penchant for what markets hate most: surprise. 
Last month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and collaborating governments were carefully easing the production cuts with which they steered the market through an oil-demand crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Demand was recovering as economies reopened after being locked down during most of 2020 and early 2021. 
And the near-month futures price for light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) — having closed below zero for the first time ever on April 20, 2020 — rose above $70/bbl for the first time since October 2018. 
Until mid-June, the market’s main concern was the potential for a supply surge if Iran escaped sanctions by agreeing with the U.S. to again suspend nuclear development. 
Only days after his election as Iranian president on June 18, Ebrahim Raisi announced new limits on what his government would negotiate regarding nuclear work and said he would not meet with U.S. President Joe Biden. 
Suddenly, new oil supply from Iran looked less imminent than it did before Raisi’s election
Then July arrived. Surprise! OPEC members and nonmembers, collectively known as OPEC+, which had been voluntarily limiting production ended an important meeting without agreeing, as had been expected, to extend their phasedown of supply restraint. Suddenly, the market had to wonder whether the result would be too little supply or a price-crushing production spree if OPEC+ discipline collapsed. In today’s blog, we examine how these developments relate to each other in the twin contexts of a rebalancing oil market and of past oil-supply management.

Notes From All Over -- The Exuberant Edition -- July 13, 2021



  • up 0.9% vs 0.5% expected;
  • pre-market trading immediately reverses
  • AAPL: pre-market looked to have a good day; after CPI released, AAPL turns negative in pre-market trading
  • EOG: stays green, but drops a bit after CPI released;
  • Dow trending toward green immediately fell to -78 in pre-market trading
  • S&P: barely green went to -10 after numbers released
  • NASDAQ: definitely green pre-market; after CPI released, NASDAQ goes negative to -40
  • Steve Liesman
    • raises pressure on the Fed to react sooner than later, but nothing right away
    • used cars: #1 on the list; up 10% on the month
      • would love to hear some analysis of the used-car phenomenon
      • my hunch: the reasons might surprise us

Original Post

Elon Musk schools Algore: from twitter, on Elon Musk, link here.

Market:all major indices hit new records yesterday

  • two of thee will hit new records today
  • possible that the Dow will also hit new records today

CNBC: best states for business: link here.

  • 5: Tennessee; cracks top 5 for first time
  • 4: Texas: lowest ranking since CNBC study began;
  • 3: Utah: 
  • 2: North Carolina: strongest finish in history of study; AAPL -- new campus
  • 1: Virginia -- CNBCs first back-to-back winner. Life, health, and inclusion.

Most ignored story on twitter: Saudi Arabia foreign exchange reserves;

Ft Worth: the garden spot in Texas! -- WAR52 over at twitter.

Tuesday, July 13, 2021: mark this day on your calendar. For investors, it's gonna be a huge day. 

AAPL: up slightly in pre-market trading.

Oil: up slightly in pre-market trading.



  • historical:

  • investors, BofA July Fund Manager Survey:
    • only 22% of investors see higher inflation in the next twelve months;
      70% say it is temporary
    • nearly 73% of investors say economy in mid- or late-cycle; up 9% from June   
  • what's going on in Cuba? 
    • the underlying trigger for riots / protests in South Africa and Cuba is likely the development in food pricesfood prices are now up 40% on the year (as in 2011 before the Arab Spring)


  • more and more indications global demand will exceed supply
  • in its monthly report, IEA warned that unless OPEC+ reaches a deal (and soon), 3Q21 could see the largest crude oil stock draw "in at least a decade."  Oil markets will tighten significantly.
  • Giovanni: following two consecutive months of decline, global oil demand surged by an estimated 3.2 mb/d to 96.8 mb/d in June;
  • Javier Blas: "strikingly, OPEC+ flagged that Russia 'has never pumped anywhere close" to its OPEC+ baseline of 11 million b/d;

Earnings, 2Q21:

  • Conagra Brands: raises dividend to 31.25 cents; record date, 8/3/21; was 27.5 cents; strong 4Q21 and full-year results; as recently as August, 2020, the dividend was 21.3 cents; between August, 2020, and August, 2021, CAG has increased its dividend 46 percent;
  • Pepsi: blows past estimates, Brian Sozzi, anchor editor-at-large;
  • JPM: down $1.60 in pre-market trading;
    • earnings top estimates
    • posts $2.3 billion benefit from releasing $3 billion in loan loss reserves after taking $734 million in charge-offs; 
    • whisper numbers killing share price
  • GS, huge beat;
    • earnings: $15.02 vs $10.24 expected; link here;
    • revenue: $15.39 billion vs $12.17 billion expected;
    • whisper numbers killing share price

Defund the police:

  • like global warming, does anyone really care?
  • Chicago gangsters outnumber cops 10 to 1 as spike in crime reaches fever pitch;
  • three top issues that get a lot of attention, but no one in DC is truly concerned
    • murder, crime; defunding the police;
    • unemployment
    • global warming: 1994 -- first major warnings came out; 2021 -- business as usual; in fact, business is much better than usual

Fun with statistics:

  • Guillain-BarrĂ© vs gun violence in Chicago
  • JNJ vaccine: Guillain-BarrĂ©: 100 people out of 12.8 million  = 0.0000078 = 0.00078%
    • people shot in Chicago over weekend: 100 / 2.7 million = 0.000037 = 0.0037%
    • 0.0037 / 0.00078 = 5x -- five times as many folks shot with guns in Chicago over the weekend compared with number of GB possibly associated with JNJ vaccine. "all" of whom who will recover; which cannot be said about the 20+ that dies from gunshot wounds over the weekend
    • which will get more coverage today?


  • Delta variant deaths,
    • 0.5% were vaccinated
    • 95.5% were unvaccinated

Global warming:


Saudi Arabia: drops Morgan Stanely on gas pipelines deal; hires JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs; link here.

Cuba: the western hemisphere country that was most hurt by the UN over the past fifty years --