Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Two Haystack Butte Wells That Have Interesting Production Profiles -- March 29, 2017

Folks may enjoy looking the production profiles for #19072 and #19073

California Governor Seeks To Raise State Gasoline Excise Tax

Taxes. California. Governor Brown wants the state to add 12 cents/gallon to the state gasoline tax. Good luck. The good news: California has some wiggle room. Pennsylvania leads the country in state excise tax on gasoline at 58.2 cents/gallon. California's gasoline excise tax is only 38.13 cents. At the new rate, California's excise tax would be 38.13 + 12 = 50.13 cents, still well under that of Pennsylvania. Others:
  • North Dakota: 23 cents
  • Minnesota: 28.60 cents
  • Oklahoma: 17 cents
  • Texas: 20 cents
  • New Mexico: 18.88 cents
  • New York: 43.88 cents
  • Massachusetts: 26.54 cents
I'm sure it's just me but after years of driving around the US, I have seldom seen any correlation between the quality of the state highways and the state gasoline tax. Texas seems to have some incredibly good state highways, and it's a huge state with probably more miles of state highways than any other state. Extreme weather variation (winter - summer, e.g., North Dakota) is near the top of the list of reasons for bad roads; single season extremes (hot summers, e.g., Texas, or very cold winters, e.g., Minnesota) would also be near the top of the list (I assume very hot weather is harder on asphalt than very cold winters). Precipitation would be another factor, as would be truck traffic, of course.  California doesn't seem to fit in among any of the "extreme" weather states or heavier truck traffic compared to several other states. Maybe it's all those EVs in California that are not participating the excise gasoline tax program.

EOG Reports Eight (8) Completed DUCs; All Unremarkable -- March 29, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs493197194188

Three (3) new permits:
  • Operator: EOG
  • Field: Ross (Mountrail)
  • Comments: three Clearwater permits
Four permits renewed:
  • Thunderbird (3): three Fleck permits in McKenzie County
  • EOG: one Hardscrabble permit in Williams County
Eight producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 29821, 894, EOG, Fertile 74-0905H, Parshall, t3/17; cum --
  • 29823, 931, EOG, Fertile 76-0905H, Parshall, t3/17; cum --
  • 29837, 468, EOG, Fertile 70-0509H, Parshall, t3/17; cum --
  • 29838, 973, EOG, Fertile 69-0509H, Parshall, t3/17; cum --
  • 30126, 444, EOG, Fertile 65-1004H, Parshall, t3/17; cum --
  • 30127, 580, EOG, Fertile 64-1004H, Parshall, t3/17; cum --
  • 30184, 1,078, EOG, Fertile 77-0905H, Parshall, t3/17; cum --
  • 30296, 701, EOG, Fertile 63-1004H, Parshall, t2/17; cum --

Williston Airport -- Contractor Named -- March 29, 2017

 Williston High School: see this post
See this link for several artist renditions of the new Williston High School. Updates also at this site. The JE Dunn announcement of a new Williston office is here. IMS Masonry here.
Williston airport: city picks JE Dunn to build new airport terminal. Data points:
  • website for new airport, includes master plan
  • construction to begin this summer
  • vote was unanimous
  • Kansas-based company has an office in Williston
  • beat out Q&D Construction of Nevada
  • terminal building cost: estimated to be between $40 and $45 million
  • relocation of snow removal and fire-fighting equipment: $6 - $7 million
  • total project: about $250 million
  • compare with WHS and Rec Center (both in $60 - $70 million range, if I recall correctly)
  • 59th Street NW to be rerouted
  • 1,500 acres bought for the project
  • federal funds yet to be released
Carthage Must Be Destroyed: The Rise and Fall of An Ancient Civilization
Richard Miles
c. 2010
DDS 939.73 MIL

What a great book. I have never understood the Punic Wars. Sort of like I never understood WWI.

I'm about halfway through the book. The First Punic War is about to start, c. 260, Chapter 7, page 177 of 373 pages of narrative, and then the notes begin.

So far, the story can be summarized:
  • Tyre
  • Carthage, Melqart, Herakles
  • Carthage in Sardinia
  • Carthage vs Syracus (Sicility)
  • Carthage vs Rome (up to this point, Carthage a naval power; Rome, a land power)
  • First Punic War, 264 BC: preceded by Romans taking all of Sicily
Herakles plays a huge role in this book, a huge role.

I haven't truly gotten to the war(s) yet, but one might be able to say that the Punic Wars have an analogy in the Pacific theater in WII. In the Punic Wars, the conflict began with control for the Mediterranean Sea, control of an island, Sardinia. In WWII, it began with control of the Pacific Ocean, beginning with an attack on a Hawaiian island. 

One of my favorite "museums" is  J. Paul Getty Museum's "Getty Villa" in Malibu, California.The museum is built "around" Herakles. I did not understand the "importance" of Herakles until I read the Richard Miles book. The book is worth its weight in gold. I'm reading it for free, through the auspices of the Grapevine (TX) public library.

Making America Great Again -- Nevada Tops The List; Texas #19; The Market And Energy Page, T+67, Part 2 -- March 29, 2017

Exiting Canadian oil sands: Cenovus Energy will acquire COP's 50% interest in Foster Creek Christina Lake partnership, the companies' jointly owned oil sand opererated by CVE, and the majority of COP's Deep Basin conventional assets in Alberta and British Columbia, for $14.1 billion in cash and stock.

The American Dream

From Axios:
First look ... Forbes launches The American Dream Index, using seven indicators of economic health "to track on a state-by-state monthly basis whether President Trump is Making America Great." The debut rankings:
Best off: Nevada, Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas and Georgia.
Worst off: Alaska, Hawaii, Connecticut, Illinois and Kansas.
The big states: Washington ranks 15th, Pennsylvania 16th, Texas 19th, California 26th, Michigan 27th, Wisconsin 29th, Virginia 30th, Maryland 31st, Ohio 32nd, New York 41st and New Jersey 45th.
Montana made the top ten, coming in at #9. North Dakota did not make the top ten.

The Forbes link here.

This Should Move South Dakota Up The "American Dream Index" 
Later: A reader provided the rest of the story.

From Engineering News Record: Otter Tail Power to build 250-MW natural gas power plant in SD. Data points:
  • to be built in eastern South Dakota (near where the DAPL crosses SD); near Astoria, SD
  • along the SD/MN border, about 75 miles north of Sioux Falls, SD -- where the Big Stone "North Dakota lignite-fired" power plant should have been built 10 years ago but Minnesota enviro's killed it.
  • near the intersection of the Northern Border natural gas pipeline and the Big Stone South-to-Brookings 345 KV electric transmission line which I suppose has excess capacity probably pre-built to accomodate the cancelled Big Stone coal fired  plant....maybe to transport canadian hydro the REAL replacement for Hoot Lake?
  • $165 million / 250 MW ($660,000 / MW -- about what we have come to expect)
  • Otter Tail will retire its Hoot Lake coal-fired plant (Minnesota, same area) by 2021
  • Hoot Lake will also be replaced by 150 MW wind farm in southeast North Dakota actually 30 MW net capacity factor  which is just political posturing not a reliable power source....worth-less-than-nothing -- except the tax credits and the political PR
  • the wind farm: $250 million ($1.7 million /MW -- also about what we have come to expect) but the dispatchable power is 20% so the cost is really $8.5 million/MW
  • the wind project will be near the small town of Merricourt, approximately 15 miles south of Edgeley, North Dakota, in McIntosh and Dickey Counties because Minnesota doesn't want this ugly junk that will be left to rot onsite in about 15 years.

1Q17 Earnings

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.

Earnings for the current quarter will be reported at this page; the link will be on the sidebar at the right, under "Earnings Central." When we start to see earnings reports for any quarter, the "Earnings Central" link is moved to the top of the sidebar until the earnings season is over.

I don't have time to check/update earnings on all companies listed below. If you see one that I have missed, feel free to send it in (anonymous comment or by e-mail) and I will post it.

Much of this information is done in haste. I assume there are factual and typographical errors. It is for my personal use only. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Note: by 4Q16 I lost a lot of interest in tracking earnings. I'm not sure where I will go with this page. In fact, there are more and more days when ... no, I won't go there. 

Maybe a few.


  • slams earnings. Earns $1.28 vs $0.62.
  • will announce May 3, 2017

  • slams earnings.
  • webcast on earning, May 9, 2017
  • EW up 10% on strong earnings, strong guidance. Up 1% during the day; up 10% after-hours trading. 
Fiat Chrysler profit jumps 34%. 


  • slams earnings. Earns $1.47 vs $1.33. Comps up 1.7%. Even beat on revenues.
NFLX (Netflix):
  • Netflix shares jump on news of deal for distribution in China; shares up 6% 
  • slams earnings 
US Steel:
  • US Steel with a huge loss both on the top line and the bottom line. All that excitement over Trump initiatives to make America great again apparently did not happen fast enough.

Connecting The Dots -- Keystone, Canadian Oil Sands, Heavy Oil, Light Oil -- March 28, 2017

I track the Keystone XL milestones here.

I'm not going to look for it now, but some time ago I posted a rather nice commentary about the rise and fall of the Keystone XL pipeline. Once the final chapter / epilogue is written, it will be obvious how and why this all unfolded.

I don't have the energy to go through it again, but when piecing the pieces together, these are themes to keep in mind, in chronological order:
  • heavy oil, light oil
  • US refining 
  • US dependence on the Mideast
  • what the Saudis realized when the Canadian oil sands were becoming front page news
  • how the Bakken revolution interrupted the Keystone XL story, but was always a peripheral player
  • how the Bakken sustained collateral damage due to the Keystone XL
  • why the Keystone is "bad" for the Bakken
I had started putting this post in draft a few days ago. It was purely coincidental that RBN Energy also had back-to-back blogs on the same issue over the past couple of days.

Connecting the dots:
This will also help, showed up on Twitter, March 30, 2017:

A Map That Needs Updating

From Pipeline101.

The Market And Energy Page, T+67 -- March 29, 2017

Crude oil inventories: up 0.9 million bbls -- EIA. I don't know what the forecast was, but this is incredibly low considering the size of the increase in crude oil inventories over the past few weeks.

WTI: after the release of the weekly crude oil inventory data -- no change.

Home sales: 2nd highest level since 2006. 

Saudi: tax cuts boost Aramco value by $1 trillion. Rigzone.
The kingdom’s change, which will reduce the tax rate on the petroleum industry from 85 percent to 50 percent, means more cash will go to the potential owners of the company than to the government. The value of Aramco depends largely on the tax regime, and the tax regime funds much of Saudi’s treasury. Aramco is on track to launch the world’s largest IPO in 2019.
Nuclear power, bankruptcy: Westinghouse files for bankruptcy, blow to nuclear power. NY Times.

Pipe. Tenaris, world's largest maker of seamless-steel pipe for the energy industry, says creation of 600 jobs at $1.8 billion plant in Texas assures him that Trump won't stop US imports of certain types of pipes. Quite a story. A member of the Trump cabinet, Energy Secretary Rick Perry, championed Tenaris’ investment decision when he was governor of the Lone Star State. In addition, Tenaris is also investing $2.3 billion in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation to drill 150 wells in the  world’s second-biggest reserves of shale gas and fourth-biggest of shale oil. Bloomberg.

Apple. Many, many stories recently. Everyone's bullish it seems. Now, Apple expert Gene Munster weighs in -- "this is the golden opportunity to buy Apple."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here.

Back to Apple: from the CNBC story -- data points
  • yesterday, another record high, $143.80
  • UBS Steven Milunovich: $151 price target, but $200 in the next few years
  • because of poor performance in the prior year, year-over-year comparisons get so easy
  • year-over-year comparisons go from 3% to 12% growth from now until September
  • in addition: all the hyper around the phone; 171 days until next iPhone is release; just in time for the holidays
GE. For the archives. From Barrons:
The bull case now is that not only can earnings inflect but cash will also ramp to a range of $1.74-2.10, a mid-point that is 3x standing levels, 2x higher than the average of the past 15 years, 40% higher than the prior high in 2009.
To us, there is no such thing as “perspective” when it comes to cash—we believe the problem is that earnings have always been more of an opinion here, cash is a fact. We continue to believe that the sustainable base rate of 2018 GAAP FCF is around ~$1.10 and those recent bullish estimates are overstated, in our view.

North Dallas, DFW, The I-35E Corridor North, Dallas North Tollway 

The "new golden triangle in North Texas": downtown Dallas north to Frisco, southwest to Rhome, and then southeast back to downtown Dallas.

This area, to me, has the feel of what it must have been like when Los Angeles was booming after WWII and into the 50's. I wasn't in Los Angeles at the time and I don't know the history well enough to make the comparison, but having spent a fair amount of time on the north side of Dallas and north of Dallas for the past few years I can say I am seeing a transformation that seems quite remarkable, to say the least.

Today, May and I spent the better part of a half day in the Harwood District of Dallas -- an 18-block area which seems to be the place to be for great restaurants and great evening entertainment. (We would have stayed much longer but we are "hemmed" in by taking the granddaughters to school at 7:00 a.m. and picking them up beginning at 3:00 p.m.)

We were told that the Harwood District is the fastest-growing district in the United States right now. 

We had lunch at the Saint Ann restaurant & Bar, at the south end of the district, and to some extent, the gateway to the district itself. I don't think folks would consider Dallas a "walking town" but it only takes about fifteen minutes to walk from the south end of the district, starting at Saint Ann's, to the north end, the Asel Art Supply store.

The highlight of our visit was The Samurai Museum, the largest collection of Samurai "art" in the world, outside of Japan.

The Dallas Morning News reported the museum's opening back in 2013. The museum is on the second floor of the historic Saint Ann school; the restaurant is on the first floor. From the website:
Located in the Dallas’ fast-growing district of HARWOOD, Saint Ann Restaurant & Bar is an urban oasis nestled between the American Airlines Center and Klyde Warren Park.
Originally built in 1927, the historic school has been transformed into a modern environment that boasts the largest garden patio in Dallas and is consistently voted as “Best Patio in Dallas” by D Magazine and “Best Outdoor Dining” by OpenTable. The restaurant’s refined yet casual atmosphere and extensive menu has made it a favorite among patrons.
It is open Monday through Friday for lunch, every day for dinner and drinks, and Saturday and Sunday Brunch. The first level of the two-story red brick building is Saint Ann Restaurant & Bar and the second level is The Ann and Gabriel Barbier-Mueller Museum: The Samurai Collection. Saint Ann Restaurant & Bar is located at Moody and Harwood at 2501 N. Harwood St., Dallas, Texas 75201. The venue was designed by Laura Lleal and developed by Harwood International.
I was amazed how inexpensive luncheon was considering its location and its history. 

It's possible the garden patio is no longer the largest garden patio in Dallas. I don't know, but I think the new Happiest Hour has a larger garden. Happiest Hour is located a short city block form Saint Ann, and is one of many restaurants owned by the same family in the Harwood District. It opened in 2015. Website is here; more at GuideLive.

The Political Page, T+67 -- March 29, 2017

Brexit. Begins.

Internet privacy. Bye-bye. But the best part of the article is the incredible hyperbole. The quote below was at the very end of an earlier version of this article; it has now moved to near the top of the story:
Advocates for tough privacy protections online called Tuesday’s vote “a tremendous setback for America.”
“Today’s vote means that Americans will never be safe online from having their most personal details stealthily scrutinized and sold to the highest bidder,” said Jeffrey Chester, executive director of the Center for Digital Democracy.
Other people's money. Sweden -- moving back toward a 70% tax bracket.  But this is what amazes me. The US struggles to hit 1% GDP growth, but Sweden:
The government recently flagged that solid finances will be an opportunity to boost welfare spending. It expects the economy to expand 2.6 percent this year, after growing more than 3 percent in 2016 and topping out above 4 percent in 2015 amid a record inflow of refugees.

At 49 Rigs -- March 29, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs493197194188

RBN Energy: market realities weight heavily on the Canadian oil sands.