Sunday, April 23, 2017

The Energy And Market Page; The Politics Page, T+92 -- April 23, 2017

Trump Le Pen rally. Futures up 152 points. Euro jumps to its highest since mid-November (2016).
The euro jumped to its highest since mid-November in early trading on Sunday, after early projections indicated that centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right Marine Le Pen had made it to the second round of the French presidential election.
Markets had been worried that the far-left, eurosceptic Jean-Luc Melenchon, who had surged in the polls in recent weeks, could jump ahead of Macron to make it into the final runoff against Le Pen, giving voters a choice between two radical candidates who would threaten the future of the EU.
"They" say Saturday is the 100th day for Trump. Looking ahead, for the blog, Saturday is T+98 so somewhere I must have missed a couple of days. I'll have to sort that out or do a "leap-week" and insert a couple of days. We'll see.

Update: Production Update For Sedalia Energy -- 
Two New Laterals In An Existing Madison Well 20 Miles Northeast Of Minot 

Production data for the following well has been updated. Link here.
  • 29854, 320, Sedalia Energy, Pratt Madison Unit 1H, Pratt oil field, t12/24/14; cum 54K 2/17; total depth, 8,041 feet; acres in drilling unit, 1,002; target objective Glenburn 1B; this well is in Pratt oil field, a few miles east-northeast of the Glenburn oil field, which in turn is northeast of Minot; well outside the Bakken.
Geologist's narratives for the two new laterals have been posted.

Sedalia Energy has:
  • 17 wells in Pratt oil field: 9 of them are active; and one is on the confidential list
  • 5 wells in Lake Darling oil field: 2 are active; 1 is inactive; and 2 are abandoned
A Note For The Granddaughters

Tomorrow I fly back to Dallas after a full week in Portland, Oregon. It has been a bittersweet week and the feeling will crescendo between now and tomorrow evening. I assume it -- the emotional swing -- will persist for several days.

Sukiyaki, Kyu Sakamoto
It was another one of those trips that was transformative for me, for lack of a better word.

I reconnected with three generations: an older generation (my mother); and two younger generations. The younger generation was represented by our daughter and my sister -- each of them almost a generation apart but for me, at a fairly similar stage in their lives; and then the youngest generation, the two sons of my sister, who would be grandchildren to my generation, if that all makes sense. Including myself, a span of four generations: mom, myself, daughter, sister's sons.

I have experienced this "sense of leaving" so many times during my life I cannot count them all. The first separation I recall very, very well. I was in 8th grade. My father took his father and me to Norway. Our first week was spent with a family in Oslo. I "connected" with a Norwegian girl my age and it was incredibly difficult for me -- emotionally -- when we left them by rail after one week. I will never forget her. It took me a long time to quit "hating" railroads: I saw them only as sinister things that took me away from things and people I loved.

Since then, it's been one damn separation after another, to coin a phrase.

Even the half-hour tour of the Chinese ship two days ago will leave me with bittersweet memories. I "connected" with the 32-year-old Chinese captain who gave the tour, as soon as he mentioned he had a wife and 6-month daughter back home near Beijing, and that he would be away from home seven months out of every ten.

This has truly been one of the best trips I have ever taken, and it has clearly been the second best trip I've had to Portland, though there have been very few trips to the city of roses. The best trip was some years ago when my wife and I were both here to witness our younger daughter's wedding.

As usual, there were many, many family photos taken this past week, but I would not be a bit surprised if the photos at this link are not the most memorable for me many years from now.

For The Archives -- EOG, The Permian, Break-Even Prices -- April 23, 2017

I've been saying this for quite some time, most recently March 14, 2017: the prices that folks are paying for mineral rights in the Permian don't make sense. Everybody more knowledgeable than I am and with a whole lot of experience tell me I'm wrong. Today I stumbled across this article while following up another set of links. I had not seen this article before. It's from Art Berman (consider the source) back on December 18, 2015.

Right or wrong, the fact that the price of oil is trending back toward $50 has to be a bit concerning for companies who bought into the Permian during the $40,000 / acre buying frenzy and folks thought oil was trending back toward $70.

For the archives, from the Art Berman article linked above:
Less than 2 percent of Permian basin tight oil wells are commercial at $30 per barrel oil prices.
Sorry about that. I know that many believe that U.S. shale and tight oil plays are commercial even at current low oil prices but data on the Permian basin and Bakken plays simply does not support that belief.
To make matters worse, Pioneer and EOG have made outrageous claims about Permian basin reserves in their 3rd quarter 2015 earnings reports that no sensible person should believe. Statements like these simply add to the mistaken idea that tight oil plays get a pass on the laws of physics and economics and that somehow the USA is going to beat Saudi Arabia as the low-cost “swing producer” of the world. I wish that were true but trust me–based on data, that’s not going to happen.
The Permian basin is one of the oldest producing areas in the United States. It has been thoroughly drilled and is in a hyper-mature phase of development. The Spraberry, Wolfcamp and Bone Springs plays that Pioneer and EOG are pursuing (Figure 1) are really secondary recovery projects in which horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have replaced water and CO2 injection methods used in the past. Few new reserves should be expected. Most of the claims that these companies make are really about higher recovery efficiency of existing reserves.
It should be noted that his lede begins with "$30-oil" where it was some years ago but oil is now back up to $50, so "stuff has changed."

This link came when following the first link and then the second link below (previously posted):

The Political Page, T+92 -- April 23, 2017


Update On EOG's Huge Wells In Loving County, Texas -- Mike Filloon -- April 23, 2017

Summary over at SeekingAlpha:
  • EOG's monster well has people talking about Loving County, a sample of recent wells provides consistency in its results.
  • Although other operators are underperforming, we think it will catch up as traffic increases in the area.
  • Loving has some of the best geology in the Delaware Basin, which makes it one of the best counties in the US.
EOG Resources' recent huge Delaware Basin well result has SunTrust singing geological praises. EOG continues to be a well design leader. It has become a great indicator of future results. As EOG improves, other operators follow. SunTrust may have pointed to one fantastic result, but in reality we are just beginning to see how good this area is. It isn't a big surprise Loving County is the focus of SunTrust's love.

North Dakota Wheat Being Loaded Unto Incheon Bay, April 23, 2017

Incheon Bay: name of ship
Owner: Pacific Basin (Hong Kong)
Crew: Chinese
Maiden voyage: March, 2017 - April, 2017
Departed:  Shimanami Shipyard [Japan] (where it was built)
First port of call: Portland, OR
Cargo: US wheat (including wheat from North Dakota; quality testing in Williston, ND)
Destination: Chile
Video taken: afternoon of Saturday, April 23, 2017
Track ship here.
Current position here.