Wednesday, March 28, 2018

CLR's Syracuse And Chicago Wells Soon To Come Off The Confidential List -- Nice Wells -- Banks Oil Field -- March 28, 2018

Updates

June 6, 2018: another Syracuse well --
  • 23050, 954, CLR, Syracuse 3-23H, Banks, looks like a nice well; see below; all NG being sold; t10/12; cum 323K 7/19;
Recent production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20182028993132256253475218129
BAKKEN3-201831548054215405100159825190
BAKKEN2-20182246464465522777756940835
BAKKEN1-2018287432774868021368812785903
BAKKEN12-20173110302101571427617655153632292
BAKKEN11-201717215568455585580
BAKKEN10-2017104786452027617610
BAKKEN9-20173017481736777280528050
BAKKEN8-201731184620568853031295972
BAKKEN7-20173118731682865308130810

June 6, 2018: another Syracuse well --
  • 23051, 505, CLR, Syracuse 4-23H, Banks, t10/12; cum 317K 7/19;
Recent production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2018305187526010027748538863599
BAKKEN3-20182227952461777134783355123
BAKKEN2-20182810727110501949520471179122559
BAKKEN1-20181911078106871852420626165204106
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-201713695994467224822480
BAKKEN9-201730197020051269537053700
BAKKEN8-20173118231698114739753855120
BAKKEN7-20173114041315942335333530
BAKKEN6-201730117713441056374237420



June 6, 2018: another Syracuse well comes off confidential list today.  This page has been update including results of two recently fracked wells (scroll to bottom).

April 22, 2018: see update at this post.

March 29, 2017: stand-alone post for this well at this post.
  • 19740, 646, CLR, Syracuse 1-23H, Banks, t7/11; cum 478K 7/19;
According to FracFocus it has not been re-fracked. Here's the recent production data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2018281124511321171741891918066853
BAKKEN1-20182716833162272345231462236967766
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-201715690976405157215720
BAKKEN8-20173117681710962406740670
BAKKEN7-201731177716951028422642260
BAKKEN6-201730191520141092453045300
BAKKEN5-201731235124321335471847180
BAKKEN4-20172815391343880271927190

Original Post 

Back on February 20, 2018 -- about a month ago -- I noted that an old CLR Chicago well (#19590) might be interesting to follow up in a few months.

The well:
  • 19590, 540, CLR, Chicago 1-26H, Banks, t5/11; cum 370K 7/19;
FracFocus has no data to suggest this well was re-fracked; nor is there any sundry form suggesting this well was re-fracked. The recent production data certainly suggests it was re-fracked, but if it has, I don't see the evidence yet.

Note the recent production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20182810086101231305717610162101400
BAKKEN1-20183016821162482338127791208916900
BAKKEN12-2017413331259310226402264
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-201713500673289142814280
BAKKEN8-20173115831999910405940590
BAKKEN7-2017166300547132913263
BAKKEN6-201715499588272171117110

Now, to check the neighboring wells.

The graphic:



It turns out that the neighboring wells have been fracked, and their initial production numbers are quite good.

First, the most recent one that has come off the confidential list, only 580 feet to the east:
  • 30159, 2,609, CLR, Chicago 6-26H1, Banks, Three Forks, 57 stages; 7.5 million lbs, API - 33-053-06529; Banks, t2/18; cum 212K 7/19; according to FracFocus, fracked 11/8/2017 - 11/26/2017;
Initial production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-201828424484252835661687625531613446
BAKKEN1-20181011200109531110023525184255100
BAKKEN12-20172211320382663383003830

But that was a Three Forks well and the parent well was a middle Bakken well. What about the other three wells (#30160, #30158, and #30161)? Yes, they have all been fracked and all have great production numbers, but are still on the confidential list. But note, only one of the three will run south, #30161:

30160, Syracuse, Three Forks, runs north:
  • 30160, 1,650, Syracuse 6-23H1, Banks, t1/18; cum 221K 7/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20183426355487
1-20181380619512
12-201724140

30158, Syracuse, runs north:
  • 30158, 1,404, CLR, Syracuse 5-23H, Banks, t1/18; cum 307K 7/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20184610553898
1-20181053314256
12-201729350

30161, Chicago, runs south:
  • 30161, 2,004, Chicago 5-26H, Banks, t1/18; cum 241K 7/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20182764246985
1-20181396116767
12-201730310

What about the other two to the west? They, too, have been fracked and are great wells. One will run south, and one will run north:

29798, Chicago, runs south:
  • 29798, 1,916, CLR, Chicago 7-26H, Banks, t1/18; cum 311K 7/19;
Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-201830295132921517750763232497251351
BAKKEN3-201831339703389618632644374903715400
BAKKEN2-20182839691398032106970746651855561
BAKKEN1-201830419674151526835738105612817682
BAKKEN12-20171173116394151123501235


30168, Syracuse, will run north:
  • 30168, 2,107, CLR, Syracuse 7-23H, Banks, t1/18; cum 303K 7/19;
Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-201830289622857013908806393519445445
BAKKEN3-201831318443186313120650905095914131
BAKKEN2-20182836006358461395061898586353263
BAKKEN1-201830440784406620186753595428721072
BAKKEN12-2017627742492555499304993

 

Put Another Log On The Fire -- Another Bakken Story -- Re-Accomplishing A Failed Frack -- MRO In Bailey Oil Field, #19553 -- March 28, 2018

An example of "saving" a well in the Bakken. 

The well:
  • 19553, 42 (no typo), MRO, Lucy Fleckenstein 34-20H, API - 33-025-01165, Bailey, t5/11; cum 222K 1/18; failed frack in 2011; in 2014, the decision was made to "sidetrack" this well, going down the existing well-bore and punching out at 11,449 feet. This they did, re-fracked with 30 stages and 3.9 million lbs sand, and reported an IP of 2,491 on 2/26/2015. 
  • Note: they re-fracked this well at the same time they fracked a number of wells in the immediate area
Production profile of interest:
BAKKEN9-201530692768894544491619622033
BAKKEN8-20153174177426469756654338352
BAKKEN7-20153166956785429646162984730
BAKKEN6-2015301107810952641264894568566
BAKKEN5-20151458345990479532492302244
BAKKEN4-201530127161258712226881045832686
BAKKEN3-2015311476515758119311659993855454
BAKKEN2-20151118827176565321412736478409
BAKKEN1-20151200000
BAKKEN12-20140000000
BAKKEN11-20140000000
BAKKEN10-2014112340101
BAKKEN9-201428332464483440149
BAKKEN8-201431319228253630143
BAKKEN7-201431328224233680147


Put Another Log On The Fire, Tompall Glaser

Shale Operators Running Out Of Core Drilling Locations? Not Yet -- Filloon -- March 28, 2018

Earlier this post: Update on the Permian -- Mike Filloon.  Link here. Part 2 here.
  • Occidental, Chevron, EOG, and RSP Permian  have the top oil curves of operators with multiple completions
  • Delaware well design improvements have increased oil production per location by 18% yoy. We believe there is greater upside in the Delaware in 2017 than in Midland. It is possible the Delaware has more upside than any other US play
  • Lea County is starting to separate itself as the best county, although northern Loving has had a few mammoth results
  • the drop in world oil inventories is enough to start pushing short pops in prices. We think WTI will push above $70/bbl by June, but pushing above $75 will be difficult 
There was something else Mike mentioned in that article -- in fact, he led with it:
In our previous article, we provided oil production data from the Midland Basin. From 2016 to 2017, this improved 32.5%.
Oil bears have stated that they believe operators will run out of core geology, and this will seal the fate of unconventional US oil producers. It is inevitable that shale will eventually dry up, but it doesn't seem to be occurring in the near future.
In a recent article, we provided an oil price estimate for the 2018 driving season. US operators continue to increase oil production, but it probably will not meet increased demand. We expect relatively large oil draws, and WTI to eclipse $70/bbl and peak at $75. This should push the US Oil ETF higher by 12% in just a few months. Oil prices should drop after and trade in the $60 to $70 range throughout 2018. It will be difficult to push oil prices above $75, as the resultant oil production could outpace demand.

Weekly Petroleum Report -- Pretty Much Ho-Hum -- March 28, 2018

Weekly petroleum report:
  • crude oil inventories: increased by 1.6 million bbls; now at 429.9 million bbls
  • refineries operating at 92.3% operable capacity -- nice; pretty much the sweet spot between 92 - 94%
  • gasoline production up a bit; distillate fuel production up a bit
  • if folks weren't following crude oil inventories so closely, this would pretty much be a ho-hum report
Days of crude oil supply in the US: pretty much unchanged at 26 days

WTI: I'm impressed the price of WTI held as well as it did. By the way, did you all see that Mike Filloon expects WTI to get to $70 by June? That's only three months from now. I don't see that happening. Maybe $68?  But that's quibbling.

Gasoline demand:

Active Rigs Take A Nice Jump To 62; Five New Permits Six Permits Renewed, But No DUCs Reported As Completed -- March 28, 2018

Active rigs:

$64.383/28/201803/28/201703/28/201603/28/201503/28/2014
Active Rigs62493197194

Five new permits:
  • Operators: Whiting (4); BR
  • Fields: Banks (McKenzie); Pershing (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Whiting -- seemingly the most active operator in the Bakken right now -- permits for a 4-well Renbarger pad in SESW 33-154-97
Six permits renewed:
  • Oasis (5): perhaps the second most active operator in the Bakken right now -- five Domalakes permits, all in Burke County
  • Enerplus: a Morgan permit in Dunn County
And that was all.

FWIW -- Update On The Permian -- Mike Filloon, Part 2 -- March 28, 2018

Update on the Permian -- Mike Filloon.  Link here. Part 2 here. See also this post.
  • Occidental, Chevron, EOG, and RSP Permian  have the top oil curves of operators with multiple completions
  • Delaware well design improvements have increased oil production per location by 18% yoy. We believe there is greater upside in the Delaware in 2017 than in Midland. It is possible the Delaware has more upside than any other US play
  • Lea County is starting to separate itself as the best county, although northern Loving has had a few mammoth results
  • the drop in world oil inventories is enough to start pushing short pops in prices. We think WTI will push above $70/bbl by June, but pushing above $75 will be difficult

Saudi Announces Ready To Start On World's Largest Solar Power Project -- WSJ -- March 28, 2018

Final 4Q17 GDP: almost hit the 3% threshold we were "promised." Final reading: 2.9% vs 2.7% expected. And the 2.9% is up from the previously reported 2.5%.

Later today: EIA crude oil inventory data and gasoline demand.

************************************
Solar
Saudis, SoftBank Group announce world's largest solar power project. Development to start this year with a $1 billion investment from Saudi-SoftBank Vision Fund. From The WSJ.
Saudi Arabia’s sovereign-wealth fund and Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp. announced plans to launch the world’s biggest solar-power-generation project, providing another ambitious goal for two of the world’s richest investors.
The development would start this year with a $1 billion investment from the joint Saudi-SoftBank Vision Fund, said Masayoshi Son, chief executive of SoftBank. It is expected to grow into a $200 billion behemoth that provides about 200 gigawatts of power by 2030, he added—more power than Saudi Arabia would need to light up the entire country by then.
The first stage of the project will cost around $5 billion and begin this year, Mr. Son said, with the installation of solar panels that will produce around 7.2 gigawatts of power in 2019. Most of it will be financed with debt.
We've talked about Saudi's solar energy program on many occasions. The numbers are "all over the place." Not long ago, the Saudi's goal was 3.45 GW by 2020, so increasing to 7.2 GW is significant. But announcing a $1 billion-downpayment for a $200 billion-project speaks volumes.

Everyone agrees that this is an existential issue for Saudi Arabia. If the kingdom does not quit burning oil to produce electricity for summer air conditioning, Saudi Arabia will be a net importer of crude oil in less than ten years.

This is the other problem:

And this is the other, other problem (note that crude oil prices have improved, and yet Saudi's cash reserves decreased month-over-month, after an improvement in recent months), link here:
 *******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$64.703/28/201803/28/201703/28/201603/28/201503/28/2014
Active Rigs60493197194

RBN Energy: rebounding E&Ps curb CAPEX growth, use capital to reward shareholders.

Another MLP bites the dust, but that's a good thing -- Motley Fool. A familiar name: Tallgrass Energy Partners. Others mentioned.