AI query: It's a little confusing, but has it been announced who will install / manage BESS for Monarch LDC in West Virginia? Sources suggest Caterpillar (CAT) but CAT is not know for BESS, or are they?
Reply:
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BESS
Power: from RBN Energy (behind a paywall):
Power for Monarch’s first phase will be generated on site from gas, but not via turbines, as might be expected. Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) involve much higher upfront costs, can be difficult to secure (see I Will Wait), and are not as flexible for variable loads compared with simple-cycle turbines or reciprocating engines.
(Turbines could be added later in Monarch’s development.)
Power for the microgrid will be generated by a fleet of Caterpillar G3516FR reciprocating engines, which feature rapid load-following capabilities (0%-100% in ~7 seconds, much quicker than a turbine, which typically needs several minutes to ramp). Caterpillar has agreed to provide the generator sets for the site’s first phase, which is expected to ramp to 2 GW by January 2028.
Despite reciprocating engines having fast start times compared to turbines, they are still not fast enough for AI workloads, which may require thousands of electricity-intensive servers to commence operation nearly simultaneously. To address that issue, the Monarch site will incorporate one of the U.S.’s largest battery energy storage systems (BESS) into its operations.
[It's hard to sort this out, but it sounds like CAT is also responsible for BESS.]
While Maine, North Dakota, perhaps Texas are cutting back on LDC approvals, West Virginia? "Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead."
LDCs are tracked here.
- Data Center Map, link here.
Locator: 50596CAT.
Locator: 50596LDC
Locator: 50596THEDRAGONSLAYER.
For me personally, this may be the biggest story of the year in the AI arena. Again, see the blog's disclaimer. This is for the extended family; this is not for general readership.
See also RBN Energy today at this post.
How big is it?
You can ask the question (I have) but nothing in the rest of the world (outside of the US) begins to remotely compare with Monarch.
Who or what is Nscale?
- pre-market, futures: +$23
- at the open: +$27
- at noon, CT: up $31; broke through $840. One year ago it was $300!
How in the world does Buffett miss one like this? This is the one-year comparison, but the five-year and "max" show a very, very similar pattern.
Because of its business model, it is ulikely that BRK-B can turn this around very quickly. It has three issues which we have addressed previously. The only way BRK-B can turn this around quickly is dividends, and significant dividends and guidance on increasing dividends going forward, as long as they BRK is not investing in AI. And, to some extent, I would be concerned that BRK has missed the AI revolution.
