OMG -- Out Of Control -- Schumer, Pelosi -- February 26, 2020

Signing off for the night.

Link here. Coronavirus update.

Change in total deaths, day-over-day;

Growth factor:

Change in total deaths, day-over-day:

Change in daily deaths, percent change, day-over-day:

Global, link here:

***********************************

Eatin' Good In The Neighborhood

Cooking Lamb Directly On The Coals 

Coronavirus Update -- February 25, 2020 Data

Seasonal flu virus (not coronavirus) update. How good is the vaccine? Interim report released by the CDC earlier today. Apparently not very effective. 50/50. In fact, worse than 50/50. Link here.

The current influenza vaccine has been 45% effective overall against 2019-2020 seasonal influenza A and B viruses.

That means the vaccine is about as effective as it typically is in a season when it offers a decent match to circulating influenza antigens.

"The meaning of the effectiveness number gets misinterpreted frequently," he told AAFP News. "While we would all want an even more effective vaccine, it remains the best way we have to prevent flu and its complications."

Because 2019-2020 has been an early and relatively severe flu season and because flu activity continues, Epling said family physicians definitely should continue to offer vaccinations to all unvaccinated patients.

I believe I read (and posted) elsewhere that a record number of children in the US have died of seasonal flu this year (2019 - 2020) and the flu season is not yet over. At last count, 105 children have died of seasonal flu in the US this year (2019 - 2020).

*******************************************

Corona Virus

The virus: SARS-CoV-2

The Disease: COVID-19

SARS: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome

One word: staycations.

Later, 7:06 p.m. Central Time, February 26, 2020: the daily coronavirus is delayed. It should have been posted by now.

Later, 7:26 p.m. Central Time, February 26, 2020, total deaths for February 25, 2020, had been updated. I expected full report any moment now. What I am looking for are data points for the four most important data points. 

No New Permits; WTI Drops Below $49 -- February 26, 2020

Active rigs:

$48.73	2/26/2020	02/26/2019	02/26/2018	02/26/2017	02/26/2016
Active Rigs	51	66	57	40	38

No new permits.

Eight permits renewed:

• Hess (6): six BB-Federal permits in McKenzie County;
• NP Resources (2): two Agate permits in Golden Valley County;

CLR Announces 4Q19 Results; Full Year 2019; And 2020 Guidance

I will clean this up later. Starting my evening of Uber-granddaughter driving. Good luck to all.

Forecast: 52 cents. Link here.

************************************

Continental Resources Announces Full-Year 2019 And 4Q19 Results; 

2020 Capital Budget And Guidance

Note: this is NOT the full press release. See CLR website for the full release. If this is important to you, go to the source. Do not quote this source as CLR data.

PRESS RELEASE:

OKLAHOMA CITY, Feb. 26, 2020.

Full-Year 2019 Results

$775.6 Million (MM) in Net Income, or $2.08 per Diluted Share•     $838.7 MM Adjusted Net Income, or $2.25 per Diluted Share (Non-GAAP)

340,395 Boepd Average Daily Production, up 14% Year-over-Year (YoY) •     197,991 Bopd Average Daily Oil Production; up 18% YoY

$3.1 Billion (B) of Cash Flow from Operations; $608 MM of Free Cash Flow (non-GAAP)

$406 MM in Shareholder Capital Return   •     $190 MM Share Repurchases and $18 MM Quarterly Dividend
•     $442 MM Total Debt Reduction; $198 MM Net Debt Reduction (Non-GAAP)

No. 1 Oil Producer in Both the Bakken and Oklahoma•     Bakken: 148,416 Average Daily Oil Production up 14% YoY
•     South: 41,695 Average Daily Oil Production up 43% YoY 

4Q19 Results

 $193.9 MM in Net Income, or $0.53 per Diluted Share•     $203.6 MM Adjusted Net Income, or $0.55 per Diluted Share

365,341 Boepd Average Daily Production; up 13% YoY•     206,249 Bopd Average Daily Oil Production; up 10% over 4Q18

2020 Capital Budget & Guidance

$2.9 B to $3.0 B of Cash Flow from Operations; $350 MM to $400 MM of Free Cash Flow •     Budgeted at $55 WTI and $2.50 HH; $5 Change in WTI = Approx. $300 MM in Cash Flow  

Targeting 4% to 6% Production Growth YoY Delivers Average Approx. 10% CAGR for 2019-2020•     Large Projects in 2020 Projected to Drive Double Digit Growth from FY 2020 to 4Q21    

$2.65 B Capital Spend in 2020; Flat Capital Spend YoY  •     $2.2 B Drilling & Completions; $125 MM for Mineral Acquisitions ($100 MM Funded by FNV)
•     Approx. 20% Lower Capital Spend in 2020 than Original Five Year Vision Estimate
•     Approx. $700 MM Capital Spend in 2020 with First Production Expected in 2021

Expect to Continue Delivering Lowest Cost Operations Amongst Oil-Weighted Peers•     $3.50 to $4.00 LOE per Boe  |  $1.60 to $2.00 Total G&A per Boe

Continental Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CLR) (the "Company") today announced its full-year 2019 and fourth quarter 2019 operating and financial results, as well as its 2020 capital expenditures budget and operating plan.

 

The Company reported full-year 2019 net income of $775.6 million, or $2.08 per diluted share. The Company's net income includes certain items typically excluded by the investment community in published estimates, the result of which is referred to as "adjusted net income."

For full-year 2019, typically excluded items in aggregate represented $63.1 million, or $0.17 per diluted share. Adjusted net income for full-year 2019 was $838.7 million, or $2.25 per diluted share (non-GAAP). Net cash provided by operating activities for full-year 2019 was $3.12 billion and EBITDAX was $3.45 billion (non-GAAP).

The Company reported net income of $193.9 million, or $0.53 per diluted share, for the quarter ended December 31, 2019. In fourth quarter 2019, typically excluded items in aggregate represented $9.7 million, or $0.02 per diluted share, of Continental's reported net income. Adjusted net income for fourth quarter 2019 was $203.6 million, or $0.55 per diluted share (non-GAAP). Net cash provided by operating activities for fourth quarter 2019 was $803.8 million and EBITDAX was $905.5 million (non-GAAP).

2019 Production Update

Full-year 2019 production increased 14% over full-year 2018, averaging 340,395 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boepd). 2019 oil production increased 18% over 2018, averaging 197,991 barrels of oil per day (Bopd). 2019 natural gas production increased 10% over 2018, averaging 854.4 million cubic feet per day (MMcfpd).

Fourth quarter 2019 total production increased 13% over fourth quarter 2018, averaging 365,341 Boepd. Fourth quarter 2019 oil production increased 10% over fourth quarter 2018, averaging 206,249 Bopd. Fourth quarter 2019 natural gas production increased 16% over fourth quarter 2018, averaging 954.6 MMcfpd.

The following table provides the Company's average daily production by region for the periods presented.

		4Q		4Q		FY		FY
Boe per day		2019		2018		2019		2018
Bakken		194,156		183,836		194,691		167,800
South		163,552		131,088		137,579		121,265
All other		7,633		9,077		8,125		9,125
Total		365,341		324,001		340,395		298,190

2019 Operations Update

"Operationally, 2019 was an exceptional year. We met or exceeded all of our guidance and delivered 18% oil production growth year-over-year. We also consummated strategic trades, bolt-on acquisitions and leasing in Continental-dominated core areas for approximately $165 million, adding up to 370 gross operated locations to our deep inventory position," said Harold Hamm, Executive Chairman.

CLR Bakken: #1 Bakken Oil Producer; 148,416 Average Daily 2019 Oil Production up 14% over 2018

In 2019, Bakken oil production increased 14% over 2018, averaging 148,416 Bopd. Bakken total production increased 16% over 2018, averaging 194,691 Boepd. During the year, the Company completed 172 gross (119 net) operated wells with first production. These 2019 Bakken program wells are performing in line with wells completed in the Company's 2017 and 2018 Bakken programs, each of which paid out in approximately one year. The 2019 program wells are approximately 75% paid out, as of January 2020. The 2020 Bakken program is projected to continue this performance trend.

CLR South: #1 OK Oil Producer; 41,695 Average Daily 2019 Oil Production up 43% over 2018 

In 2019, South oil production increased 43% over 2018, averaging 41,695 Bopd. South total production increased 13% over 2018, averaging 137,579 Boepd. During the year, the Company completed 140 gross (98 net) operated wells with first production in the South. In SCOOP, Project SpringBoard produced an average 25,006 net Bopd, outperforming the Company's expectations announced in third quarter 2018 by 50%.    

Year-End 2019 Proved Reserves

The Company's year-end 2019 proved reserves grew 6% year-over-year to 1,619 MMBoe, as of December 31, 2019. These additions equate to a reserve replacement ratio of 178% for 2019 (defined as total change in proved reserves, excluding production, divided by production).

SEC prices used for calculating proved reserves were approximately $10.00 less per barrel WTI and $0.50 less per Mcf gas than the SEC prices used in the prior year. The Company's proved reserves have grown by 32% since December 31, 2015 and these additions equate to a four year reserve replacement ratio of 198%.

2019 Financial Update (due to formatting, some information is missing).

"In 2019, Continental maintained capital discipline and generated strong corporate returns with an 11% return on capital employed (ROCE). The Company also delivered $190 million in share repurchases, approximately $200 million in net debt reduction and the initiation of the Company's quarterly dividend," said John Hart, Chief Financial Officer.

		Three Months Ended		Year Ended
2019 Financial Update		December 31, 2019		December 31, 2019
Cash and Cash Equivalents				$39.4 million
Total Debt				$5.33 billion
Net Debt (non-GAAP)(1)				$5.29 billion
Average Net Sales Price (non-GAAP)(1)
Per Barrel of Oil		$51.33		$51.82
Per Mcf of Gas		$1.73		$1.77
Per Boe		$33.49		$34.56
Production Expense per Boe		$3.31		$3.58
Total G&A Expenses per Boe		$1.59		$1.57
Crude Oil Differential per Barrel		($5.52)		($5.15)
Natural Gas Differential per Mcf		($0.77)		($0.86)
Non-Acquisition Capital Expenditures		$541.3 million		$2.66 billion
Exploration & Development Drilling & Completion		$467.8 million		$2.2 billion
Leasehold		$18.1 million		$86.8 million
Minerals, of which 80% was Recouped from FNV		$10.3 million		$130.0 million
Workovers, Recompletions and Other		$45.1 million		$198.3 million

(1) Net debt and net sales prices represent non-GAAP financial measures. Further information about these non-GAAP financial measures as well as reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP financial measures are provided subsequently under the header Non-GAAP Financial Measures.

2020 Capital Budget & Guidance

"In 2020, Continental will prioritize maximizing shareholder capital return in the form of share repurchases, debt reduction and dividends. With our strong portfolio and disciplined approach to value creation, we will continue to increase capital and corporate returns for our shareholders," said Bill Berry, Chief Executive Officer.

The 2020 capital budget is projected to generate $2.9 to $3.0 billion of cash flow from operations and $350 to $400 million of free cash flow for full-year 2020 at $55 per barrel WTI and $2.50 per Mcf Henry Hub. A $5 change per barrel WTI is estimated to impact annual cash flow by approximately $300 million.

Annual crude oil production is projected to range between 198,000 to 201,000 Bopd. Annual natural gas production is projected to range between 935,000 to 960,000 Mcfpd. The Company is targeting 4% to 6% annual production growth year-over-year, which is expected to average an approximately 10% CAGR for 2019 and 2020. The Company believes the projected growth range is appropriate given prevailing market conditions and outperformance in 2019. Cumulative volumes are projected to be on track with the Company's original Five Year Vision estimates for 2019 and 2020.

The Company's 2020 capital expenditures budget is flat year-over-year at $2.65 billion. Estimated Capex spend is approximately 20% lower than the Company's original Five Year Vision estimate for 2020. An estimated $700 million of capital to be spent in 2020 will not realize first production until 2021 as the Company prioritizes large scale multi-pad development projects in SCOOP and Bakken Long Creek.

Consequently, at year-end 2020, the Company expects to have a working backlog of approximately 242 gross operated wells in progress in various stages of completion, which is 12% higher than year-end 2019. This includes 188 gross operated wells in the Bakken, which is 42% higher than year-end 2019.

The Company is allocating approximately $2.2 billion to drilling and completion (D&C) activities, of which approximately 60% is allocated to the Bakken and approximately 40% to Oklahoma. The non-D&C capital is planned to be primarily focused on leasehold, mineral acquisitions, workovers and facilities.

The Company is allocating approximately $125 million to the previously announced mineral royalty agreement. With a carry structure in place, $100 million of capital costs will be funded by Franco-Nevada and the Company expects to earn 50% of total revenue generated from this strategic relationship in 2020.

In 2020, the Company plans to deliver approximately 8% ROCE at $55 WTI.

"Looking to 2020 and beyond, Continental expects to continue to be the low cost leader among our oil-weighted peers as we maximize performance and returns from our growing, high quality assets," said Jack Stark, President and Chief Operating Officer.

The Company's full 2020 guidance, capital expenditures budget and operating details can be found at the conclusion of this press release.

The following table provides the Company's production results, per-unit operating costs, results of operations and certain non-GAAP financial measures for the periods presented. Average net sales prices exclude any effect of derivative transactions. Per-unit expenses have been calculated using sales volumes.

	Three months ended December 31,				Year ended December 31,
	2019		2018		2019		2018
Average daily production:
Crude oil (Bbl per day)	206,249		186,934		197,991		168,177
Natural gas (Mcf per day)	954,556		822,402		854,424		780,083
Crude oil equivalents (Boe per day)	365,341		324,001		340,395		298,190
Average net sales prices (non-GAAP), excluding effect from derivatives: (1)
Crude oil ($/Bbl)	$    51.33		$    50.06		$       51.82		$       59.19
Natural gas ($/Mcf)	$      1.73		$      3.26		$         1.77		$         3.01
Crude oil equivalents ($/Boe)	$    33.49		$    37.13		$       34.56		$       41.25
Production expenses ($/Boe)	$      3.31		$      3.50		$         3.58		$         3.59
Production taxes (% of net crude oil and gas sales)	8.1%		8.2%		8.3%		7.9%
DD&A ($/Boe)	$    16.45		$    16.41		$       16.25		$       17.09
Total general and administrative expenses ($/Boe) (2)	$      1.59		$      1.65		$         1.57		$         1.69
Net income attributable to Continental Resources (in thousands)	$193,946		$197,738		$   775,641		$   988,317
Diluted net income per share attributable to Continental Resources	$      0.53		$      0.53		$         2.08		$         2.64
Adjusted net income (non-GAAP) (in thousands) (1)	$203,589		$201,686		$   838,723		$1,066,237
Adjusted diluted net income per share (non-GAAP) (1)	$      0.55		$      0.54		$         2.25		$         2.84
Net cash provided by operating activities (in thousands)	$803,812		$955,267		$3,115,688		$3,456,008
EBITDAX (non-GAAP) (in thousands) (1)	$905,525		$850,640		$3,447,033		$3,623,373

(1) Net sales prices, adjusted net income, adjusted diluted net income per share, and EBITDAX represent non-GAAP financial measures. Further information about these non-GAAP financial measures as well as reconciliations to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP financial measures are provided subsequently under the header Non-GAAP Financial Measures.

(2) Total general and administrative expense is comprised of cash general and administrative expense and non-cash equity compensation expense. Cash general and administrative expense per Boe was $1.15, $1.18, $1.15, and $1.25 for 4Q 2019, 4Q 2018, FY 2019 and FY 2018, respectively. Non-cash equity compensation expense per Boe was $0.44, $0.47, $0.42, and $0.44 for 4Q 2019, 4Q 2018, FY 2019 and FY 2018, respectively.

Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call

The Company plans to host a conference call to discuss full-year 2019 and 4Q19 results on Thursday, February 27, 2020 at 12:00 p.m. ET (11:00 a.m. CT). Those wishing to listen to the conference call may do so via the Company's website at www.CLR.com or by phone:

Time and date:	12 p.m. ET, Thursday, February 27, 2020
Dial-in:	1-888-317-6003
Intl. dial-in:	1-412-317-6061
Conference ID:	8554062

A replay of the call will be available for 14 days on the Company's website or by dialing:

Replay number:	1-877-344-7529
Intl. replay:	1-412-317-0088
Conference ID:	10138250

The Company plans to publish a full-year 2019 and 4Q19 summary presentation to its website at www.CLR.com prior to the start of its conference call on Thursday, February 27, 2020.