Friday, April 9, 2021

A CLR Kukla Well Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- April 9, 2021

 The well:

  • 20544, 1,301, CLR, Kukla 3-16H, Chimney Butte, 4 sections, 30 stages, 3 million lbs, t4/12; cum 491K 9/20; cum 500K 2/21;

The pads:

Active Rigs Drop To 15; CLR WIth Four New Permits; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- April 9, 2021

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1536635849

Four new permits, #38249 - #38252, inclusive:

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36250,
  • 37103,
  • 37104,

What A Bunch Of Malarkey -- April 9, 2021


April 12, 2021:

Original Post

Once the convoys are in motion, does it matter how long the transit time? Only for the guys in the back room wearing green visors.

A Trifecta! Equity Markets Hit New Records; DAPL To Stay Open; Amazon 1; Unions, 0 -- April 9, 2021

Links, stories, and comments pending.

I'm off on my bicycle to go to "Total Wine" to buy some champagne. 

But, but, but: the judge can easily overrule the US Army Corps of Engineers; and this judge has closed the DAPL before.  

Prince Phillip: the big story no one has mentioned yet?

  • link here, The Cut, November 19, 2015
  • "The Science of Longtime Couples Who Die Together."
  • most famous example: Johnny Cash / June Carter Cash -- within four months of each other;
  • yet to be seen: Jeffrey Epstein / Ghislaine Maxwell


  • two weeks in a row -- market surges on a Friday afternoon. FOMO.
  • analyst: one has to "outrun inflation" -- the only way -- the US equity markets;
  • at some point, some analyst is going to make the post-WWII analogy;


  • it certainly looks like a breakout;
  • up a couple of dollars yesterday; now, today, up another 2%;
  • a few weeks ago, trading for $119; in trading range below $120 for quite some time;
  • now, in past two days, moves up, trading at $133;

Saudi Aramco: sells 49% stake in pipelines to foreign consortium;

  • if anyone can their head around this one, you are a better investor than I am;
  • seems that Saudi Aramco is simply renting back their own pipelines; I get it, but the "spread" must be minimal; and, if push comes to shove Saudi Arabia can always nationalize the entire system (again);

How big will the post-Covid-19 opening be?

  • attendance at national parks is expected to swell;
  • demand is predicted to be so hot that Phillips 66 is set to reverse the flow of one of its pipelines so it can carry gasoline from Texas into Denver;
  • switch will occur May 1, 2021;
  • President Biden was heard to say: "Neanderthals"
  • when you visit the Grand Canyon this summer, see if you can hear the "Neanderthal" echo

Bloomberg: driving roars back in US, setting up gasoline for a 7-year high; link here;

  • pump prices could reach $3/gallon for first time since 2014
  • send a note to your Congresswoman reminding her that Biden killed the Keystone


  • the poster child for government overreach and "the mask mandate";


  • the New York Times' list of top-10 cities where the outbreak is worse, nine of those cities are in Michigan
  • the poster child for surging Covid-19 and no history of:
    • Sturgis; and,
    • no back-to-school excuse;
  • amid Michigan coronavirus case spike, epidemiology expert Gretchen Whitmer urges suspension of in-person high school classes;
  • she also called all "Michiganders" to avoid dining and gathering indoors;
  • "we all have to step up our game" -- Governor Gretchen Whitmer
  • Michigan is now the national leader in the number of cases of Covid-19 by population despite increasing vaccinations;
  • for those paying attention, it makes absolute sense what is going on; it's not rocket science;
  • or as Milana Vayntrub would say, "it's not complicated"

I Fought AgainsThe Bottle But I Had To Do It Drunk -- The Saudi Paradox -- April 9, 2021

I see WTI is down again today; Saudi Arabia can't make it on 6-handle oil.

Talk about "cognitive dissonance" for a kingdom that continues to live in the Middle Ages.  Reuters contributor writes:

In order to wean Saudi Arabia off its dependency on crude the kingdom needs higher oil prices.

Sort of like Leonard Cohen saying

I fought against the bottle, but I had to do it drunk. 


From Reuters

A multi-trillion dollar spending push designed to diversify the economy's sources of income will require state companies to cut the dividends they pay the government to boost capital spending, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said.

It is not clear how much companies like oil group Saudi Aramco - whose $75 billion dividends last year were vital to support state revenues - would cut their dividends, but any reduction would likely need to be compensated by higher oil prices, analysts say.

"If dividends are lowered, a higher oil price would boost Aramco transfers to the sovereign through taxes and royalties instead," Jean-Michel Saliba, MENA economist at Bank of America, said in a research note.

This leaves crude revenues at the centre of the kingdom's strategy targeting 27 trillion riyals ($7.2 trillion) in domestic spending by 2030.

A reader sent me the link to the story. My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

Every story I read along this line, these are the recurring themes I see:
  • Saudi Arabia is in deep trouble;
  • Saudi Arabia is confused; not sure what to do in a free market; doesn't dare cede global market to others: US, Iran, Russia.
  • that $75 billion dividend is a huge problem for both Aramco and the state; Armaco can't get rid of it fast enough; the state won't let it go. It would be interesting to see how that $75 billion is spent; who benefits from it; rich princes or others?
  • articles in the US spreading disinformation on fracking, pipelines are certainly funded by Saudi Arabia
  • renewable energy provides low margin returns; nothing like the margins in oil;
  • Saudi Arabia can build all the refineries they want but those refineries are a long way from the countries that use refined products; countries that use refined products have more than enough refineries: the EU; China, India, the US;
  • it may be good "PR" to talk about building refineries in Saudi Arabia, the fact is they are also low margin, and are thousands of miles away from consumers;
  • refineries become targets for terrorists.

Road To Clean Energy -- Loss Of Jobs -- April 9, 2021

North Dakota farmers: the tea leaves suggest those farmers who can manage the drought situation in North Dakota this year will do very, very well; this begs the question: why not more irrigation in western North Dakota?

Got corn? Corn futures rise to highest since 2013 before USDA report. 

Meanwhile, in the EU: the EU is considering relaxing its ban on feeding processed animal protein (PAP) to domestic livestock amid tighter oilseed protein supply and surging international prices; I'm assuming we're talking about:

ExxomMobil is considering shutting down refinery in Norway. Link here. Great news for US refiners.

  • cites refining overcapacity, falling demand for fuels;
  • Slagen refinery processes North Sea crude, major fuel exporter;
  • European refiners looking to biofuels, hydrogen projects;
  • if converted to a terminal, Slagen would import high-quality fuel products;
  • many story lines; much more at the link.

Here Comes Da Judge -- DAPL Update -- April 9, 2021; 9:14 a.m. CT

Link here.

Bakken crude to be re-routed every which way if DAPL shut down, link here:

If the Energy Transfer-operated pipeline is ordered shut, energy analysts believe drastic measures will not become necessary so long as the closure is temporary only through the back half of the year. The US Army Corps of Engineers' court-ordered Environmental Impact Statement study could put DAPL back into good legal standing by the end of 2021 or early 2022, although an unprecedented permanent closure would have much bigger long-term impacts.

With Bakken crude production and activity already diminished from the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and, to a lesser extent, DAPL uncertainty, a temporary closure would keep projected Bakken production growth from occurring, but it would not trigger substantial reductions in volumes, analysts said.

"The industry had a lot of time to consider alternate routes," said Colton Bean, midstream analyst for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. "Is it going to be a disaster scenario? No. It's more of a cap on growth than a big impact on existing production."

MRO Reports Yet Another Staggering Well In Reunion Bay -- April 9, 2021

Do you remember when there were a half-dozen oil fields in the Bakken said to be the best oil fields, and the list did not include Reunion Bay?

The page will not be updated. The MRO P-R-S-4W pad is tracked here.  

One well coming off confidential list -- Friday, April 9, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 86 for the year. 

The well:

  • 37323, AL/A, MRO, Oscar Thorson USA 41-8TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, Three Forks second bench; 1600-acre spacing; fracked 9/16/20 - 9/26/20; 7.5 million gallons of water (medium frack); 59.6% fresh water by mass; 25.1% produced water by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  • 49870 bbls over 18 days extrapolates to 83,117 bbls;

Another Day Of Sub-$60 WTI; One Well Coming Off Confidential List; DAPL One Step Closer To Shutdown -- April 9, 2021


 Amazon: kills unionization. The vote was not even close. Something like 70% of those voting, voted "NO" on unionization. Sorry. Not sorry.


Investing, BofA report: money flowing into the stock market in the last five months has exceeded that of the prior twelve years. Link here.

  • equity funds have attracted more than half a trillion dollars in the past five months, exceeding inflows recorded over the previous 12 years, according to data from BofA, which has likened the stampede to a "melt-up" in markets;

PPI: up 1.0% vs 0.4%. Oh-oh.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

DAPL: case will be heard today;

  • 70% chance pipeline will be shut down for remainder of 2021; link here;
  • unclear when ruling will be made; could be made today
  • Bakken oil will be rerouted in every direction when DAPL shuts down; link here;
  • cancellation of Liberty Pipeline adds to concern, previously posted;
  • ERF up 4% today; has nothing to do with DAPL; all to do with Hess deal; previously posted; paid $4,000/Bakken acre vs $40,000/acre in the Permian; a real steal.

Energy picks: top energy stocks for April, 2021, Investopedia. Link here. Three different metrics:

  • first metric: Equitrans Midstream, Valvoline, and ONEOK
  • second metric: Baker Hughes, Valvoline, Williams Companies
  • third metric: Antero Midstream, Targa Resources, Halliburton,

DUCs: Debbie Downer on DUC completions. Link here

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

McDonald's: leaving Walmart, link here.

  • McDonald's restaurants in Walmart were always packed but that's not where McDonald's money is made -- McDonald's makes its money in drive-through; explains why McDonald's did so well during the pandemic;

Hopeful sign: early voting suggests unionization of Amazon will go down in defeat; in early returns, going down 2 - 1; huge benefit working for Amazon: receive shares in AMZN; US workers better educated than the workers of 1935; understand pitfalls of unionization; benefit package already one of the best one can find. Not my views: NY Times analyst.


  • firing on all cylinders. Link here.
  • XLNX: shareholders overwhelmingly approve acquisition by AMD. Link here.


  • to halt production at several North American plants due to chip shortage. Link here.unveils affordable electric Hummer SUV ($110,595) to join affordable electric pickup ($99,995). The perfect gifts for those students who did not get accepted by USC. LOL. Link here.

AAPL: re-posting. Apple delays Mac and iPad production due to chip shortage; buried in these stories -- delay won't impact consumer at point-of-purchase; overview of entire lineup; Zacks link here;

Buffett: almost entire portfolio in three sectors; link here;

  • information technology;
  • financials;
  • consumer staples;

Chart of the day, link here.

  • China sold in March, 2021, a record number of excavators;
  • sold more excavators (72,000) in one month than were sold in all of 2015 and 2016
  • I assume the excavators were needed to build all those coal plants, previously posted;

China car sales: soar to pre-pandemic levels. Link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1636635849

One well coming off confidential list -- Friday, April 9, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 86 for the year:

  • 37323, AL/A, MRO, Oscar Thorson USA 41-8TFH-2B, Reunion Bay,
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

RBN Energy: shift to renewable diesel drives many refiners' ESG plans, part 4. 

Each sector of the oil and gas industry — upstream, midstream, and downstream — faces its own unique set of challenges in dealing with the ongoing transition to a lower-carbon global economy and in addressing the increasing ESG-related demands of investors and lenders. Refiners are no exception. Their highly complex facilities may be capable of converting crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, but the fact remains these refined products generate greenhouse gases when they are produced and consumed. What can refiners do to prepare for an era of low- or no-carbon fuels and improve their enviro-cred at the same time? Many have been investing heavily in renewable fuels production, such as renewable diesel and ethanol, and in sourcing at least some of their electricity needs from wind and solar. Today, we continue our series on the environmental-social-governance movement in the oil and gas industry with a look at what refiners are doing on the ESG front.