Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Apple Campus Update, Austin, TX -- May 20, 2020

This is Apple, Inc. This is Austin, TX.

Reminder: Elon Musk moving CyberTruck factory to Austin, TX. Will move Tesla HQ to Texas; site not announced.

From MacRumors:
Apple is adding a 192-room hotel to the campus that it is developing in Austin, Texas, according to revised construction plans shared by Culturemap.
**********************************
Fast and Furious

Headlines. Generally no links. If this is important to you, googling will certainly find the stories. 

Biden and pipelines:
  • Biden would stop the Keystone XL Pipeline for good, his campaign has revealed: the top story over at Rigzone "today."
Other energy:
  • Exxon buys offshore Suriname stake from Petronas.
  • Cameron's train 3 starts producing LNG; Hackberry, LA. Link here. See also the list of potential US LNG export facilities at this post.  Data points:
    initial award: 2014
    • the project includes three liquefaction trains
    • a projected export of 12 million tonnes per annum of LNG, or 1.7 billion cubic feet per day
    • owned by affiliates of Sempra, Total, Mitsui, Mitsubishi, and Nippon 
    • McDermott: lead on project
Corona virus:
  • Victoria's Secret to permanently close 250 US, Canadian stores; Bath And Body, 50 stores;
  • push to delay "April 15" tax day from current July 15to the October 15th; President Trump open to suggestion (I've long advocated simply dispensing with any more tax collections this fiscal year);
  • Target's profit sinks 64% as costs soar amid pandemic (the article did not adequately "explain" "costs";
Politics:
  • Judge dismisses high-tax states' lawsuit against Trump tax deduction limits (SALT)
  • Trump campaign and RNC have record fundraising April (some numbers rounded): 
    • brought in $62 million in the month of April
    • total raised to date: $742 million
    • this represents almost $300 million more than the Obama re-election effort had at this same point
  • campaign 2020, Trump campaign has:
    • over one million volunteers trained and activated; and,
    • has added over 300,00 new volunteers cince moving to a virtual platform 
  • Supreme Court (temporarily) blocks US House efforts to get Mueller grand-jury info released

A CLR Syracuse Well Coming Up On 500K Cumulative -- May 20, 2020

The well:
  • 19740, 646, CLR, Syracuse 1-23H, Banks, Bakken, t7/11; cum 495K 3/20; 
Production period of interest:
BAKKEN4-2018291077211191116821677080738697
BAKKEN3-2018251055910309134581529178307461
BAKKEN2-2018281124511321171741891918066853
BAKKEN1-20182716833162272345231462236967766
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-201715690976405157215720
BAKKEN8-20173117681710962406740670
BAKKEN7-201731177716951028422642260
BAKKEN6-201730191520141092453045300
BAKKEN5-201731235124321335471847180

Hunt Oil 's Halliday 1-12-1H 1 -- 500K Cumulative -- May 20, 2020

This well has probably gone over 500K

The well:
Recentvproduction:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20203140564088637931421245
BAKKEN2-202029405841885583384101222
BAKKEN1-20203146854723654662427469
BAKKEN12-2019315110509174046140422
BAKKEN11-2019294158407274414260308
BAKKEN10-20192841724121943910210892
BAKKEN9-2019294867498187357950714
BAKKEN8-2019314942479299191449931233
BAKKEN7-20193133513420107302596472380
BAKKEN6-20193034993444940628408171820
BAKKEN5-20192827502693768970555756015
BAKKEN4-201930332034006551338412222025
BAKKEN3-2019314756507710335542624522749
BAKKEN2-2019285127479010281545321972528
BAKKEN1-2019314038404414359658627203458
BAKKEN12-20183151113732557459246211
BAKKEN11-20181193960880
BAKKEN10-20182616321522113312177810

Slawson's Alamo Well In Big Bend Goes Over 500K -- May 20, 2020

Updates

May 21, 2020: see comments. From a reader:
That jump came after Marathon fracked a well just the west of the Alamo set. 
The Alamo wells run south to north and the Marathon wells (Shrader and Homme) north to south.
Original Post

The well:
  • 19996, 1,148, Slawson, Alamo 2-19-18H, Big Bend, Bakken, t6/11; cum 542K 3/20;
Jump in production back in late 2017:
BAKKEN1-20183163116467358253584045488
BAKKEN12-201731749574048181587536421281
BAKKEN11-2017309177913211870641122773001
BAKKEN10-2017257644749315565507619832195
BAKKEN9-20172554835507655740462486861
BAKKEN8-20171136123583311928131959413
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20171258166210346184834
BAKKEN5-20172614671582696127695333
BAKKEN4-2017308237283607075507
BAKKEN3-2017278188983467085730
BAKKEN2-201728123113227958997590
BAKKEN1-201731238622501226203718820
BAKKEN12-201627203019241061162914940

Equinor Gunderson Well With Huge Jump In Production -- May 20, 2020

The well:
Production period of interest:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2020318432836926318085788873
BAKKEN2-202029469249621741324331261
BAKKEN1-20202043204088191610407103270
BAKKEN12-2019267114722433801002899480
BAKKEN11-20192952865085421917935178150
BAKKEN10-20193139933871496917082169526
BAKKEN9-201975158641141615961487
BAKKEN8-201931992010355953528604286040
BAKKEN7-201931115401088421054245112445655
BAKKEN6-201930233022793136029221239675254
BAKKEN5-20191929203498239851507414246828
BAKKEN4-201917621458801615369986840158
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20186253048946870684
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-201829143517701308325532260
BAKKEN2-20182616791521132047594527206
BAKKEN1-20183125572673230176067144431
BAKKEN12-20171523902096155255555004536

Oasis Meiers Well With Jump In Production -- May 20, 2020

The well:
Recent production, note jump in production: 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202031330633345011463030161452
BAKKEN2-202029417341875063625340752026
BAKKEN1-202031577059089365780442443396
BAKKEN12-2019315993573519812898443694453
BAKKEN11-201921251924271801331972137949
BAKKEN10-2019192022184113870339914111888
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-201900850000
BAKKEN7-2019227147379981292980196
BAKKEN6-20193010571077154018621131573

A Slawson Cruiser Well Just Went Over 500K Cumulative -- May 20, 2020

Lots of work left to be done in the Bakken.

Good example. This well drilled back in 2011. Took awhile but goes over 500K. Scout tickets can be in error, but the scout ticket for this well shows that it is still flowing without artificial lift (a pump).

The well:
  • 20551, 1,660, Slawson, Cruiser 2-16-9H, Van Hook, F, t6/11; cum 502K 3/20; 
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20203021902287108717151449115
BAKKEN2-20202921912317118717541049560
BAKKEN1-20201211358879951215648388
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-2019001650000
BAKKEN10-2019201124108080011799573
BAKKEN9-2019301579168314241717130595
BAKKEN8-201931160915798922046170612
BAKKEN7-20193116021721781201516880
BAKKEN6-2019291566141765516731136224

This 2011 Wildcat Trending Toward 500K -- May 20, 2020

Back in 2011, this was a "wildcat." It helped define "Crazy Man Creek."

The well:

  • 19982, 1,197, Zavanna,  Bruce 5-8 1H, Wildcat-->Crazy Man Creek, Bakken, t1/12; cum 438K 3/20;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202031366835085188107921024387
BAKKEN2-20202330033071522164075833231
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-2019118191811500
BAKKEN11-20192020171859258252524786168
BAKKEN10-201931320530863064715253541336
BAKKEN9-20193012561161153620831445191
BAKKEN8-20193115311527278025371860215

Update Of An Old EOG Clarks Creek Well In The Antelope-Sanish -- May 20, 2020

The well:
  • 19790, 1,318, EOG, Clarks Creek 3-0805H, Antelope-Sanish, t6/11; cum 461K 3/20;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH3-2020296508647979127480713913
SANISH2-20201528222800382714111033204
SANISH1-20200000000
SANISH12-20190000000
SANISH11-20190000000
SANISH10-20190000000
SANISH9-20190000000
SANISH8-20190000000
SANISH7-20190000000
SANISH6-2019171193127751411199070
SANISH5-201931258125811093189715000
SANISH4-201930204320199445441600
SANISH3-2019311504157463610026050
SANISH2-20192075171517644767145
SANISH1-201931125111714471317740190

What Was On HIS Mind? -- May 20, 2020

From Twitter earlier today:


I wonder if Twitter will ban People's Daily, China for promoting oil pimps?

First-Ever WTI Oil Cargo To Arrive At Odessa (Ukraine) -- May 20, 2020

From Reuters:
Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odessa is set to receive on Wednesday its first ever West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil cargo from the United States ....
Industry sources said that the UMLMA tanker has shipped in BP’s 80,000-tonnes cargo for further delivery to the Kremenchug refinery of Ukrtatnafta. The value has not been disclosed.
Kiev has moved to diversify its energy supplies from its ex-Soviet master, Russia, following Moscow’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014 and subsequent flair-up of pro-Russian insurgency in eastern Ukraine. 
Odessa last received an oil cargo from the United States, the Bakken crude blend, in March
What's on her mind?

 

XTO WIth Four New Permits In The Grinnell-Bakken Unit -- May 20, 2020

OPEC Basket: $28.43.

WTI:
  • another glitch over at oilprice.com? This morning the WTI price over at oilprice.com was $32.66. This afternoon, the same banner says WTI closed at $31.96, up $0.31, up almost a percent.
  • over at Yahoo!Finance, that site shows crude closed as $33.52, up $1.56, up 4.88%
  • in the "active rig" graphic below, I usually display the oilprice.com price because it's easier for me to check; however, in this case, I am showing the Yahoo!Finance quote
 *************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


$33.525/20/202005/20/201905/20/201805/20/201705/20/2016
Active Rigs1466615125

Four new permits:
  • Operator: XTO
  • Field: Grinnell (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • XTO has four new permits in the Grinnell-Bakken Unit (GBU), SWSE 34-155-96;
    • all are about 1800' FEL and 80' FSL
    • it looks like these wells will be sited in Capa oil field, but will run to the southeast, in the same drilling unit where #16470, a GBU-Harney well, is permitted; GBU-Harney has three horizontal legs: one is a short lateral; the other two are standard two-section laterals; #16470 is a lousy well; it was drilled / completed back in 2007 and to date has produced only 93K bbls of crude oil; in fact it has produced more water (107,960 bbls) than oil
    • it's hard to say for sure how much proppant was used but it appears a total of 550,000 pounds in an open hole frack;
Four permits renewed:
  • WPX: four Charles Blackhawk permits in Dunn County
**********************************
Her Grammy Betsy Passed Away 
About A Year Ago


Gasoline Demand -- Worrisome Trend -- May 20, 2020

Link here.


Comments:
1: trend in the correct -- albeit expected -- direction; however, the rate of growth is tapering ever so slightly; worrisome;
2. the four-week average is showing an upward trend -- good, but...
3. week-over-week, demand actually declined ...
**********************************
BFF

Idle Rambling, Nothing About The Bakken -- May 20, 2020

With regard to Wuhan flu, there almost seems to be a civil war going in the US, but this time it's not between the north and the south, but rather:
  • between the states that are re-opening, and the states that are not;
  • between Big Box retail (Walmart, Target, Sams, Costco) where it seems safe to shop, and small mom-and-pop retail (where they might see an average of ten people/day) where it is deemed unsafe to shop;
  • between the elite who have access to barbers, hair salons, spas, nail care vs the rest of us; 
It will be fascinating to watch how this plays out. My hunch there's a lot more happening just below the surface which no one is reporting.

Niche retail: will survive. Anecdote: "Bricks and Minifigs." Legos. Great source for retired sets. This set is retired, still available through Amazon at $89 +$4.99 shipping. Not eligible for Prime free shipping. On the other hand, same set is available for $22 at local "Bricks and Minifigs" store. I picked up one set earlier this week and had forgotten about it when Sophia "discovered" it in my "pile of stuff' in the bedroom. She loved it, playing with it for more than an hour after dinner last night.
Well, it turns out that our local "Bricks and Minifigs" had two of these sets. I bought the one, as noted, and will go back later today to pick up the second set if it is still available. We will give the second set to her closest friend and the two of them can each have their own set.

Yahoo!Finance: now I remember why I quit following the business news. These are the headline stories over at Yahoo!Finance today.


Story #1. Well, duh. That's not news. That's a "dog bites man" story. In fact, if you need this story to help you with investing at this point in the Wuhan flu pandemic, you are in deep trouble. In fact, whoever wrote that story is a good candidate to be a nominee for the Geico Rock Award.

Story #2. Does anyone care? Certainly no one in US Congress -- who wants to be re-elected -- cares, and state governors seem to be still asking for still more help from the federal government.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Data -- May 20, 2020

Updates

Later, 12:14 p.m. CT: see comments --
I see a balanced report. Although the crude stocks are down product stocks make up for the crude drop, look at last line of Total Stocks (excluding SPR). Up by 5 million barrels. Next look at the last line Net Imports of Crude and Petroleum Product, imported 388 vs exported 278 barrels from week to week. Figure about 4.5 million barrel differences from the last 2 weeks of reports.

These weekly reports of crude stocks can have swings due to shipping delays of delivery by storms or heavy fog in the Houston ship channel. Couple of delayed VLCC delayed deliveries is 4 million barrel difference in crude stocks.

Refineries have adjusted their processing, likely the excess jet fuel is being cracked into gasoline for example, year to year stock is almost same.
Original Post

EIA weekly report: link here --
  • US crude oil in storage: decreased by a whopping 5 million bbls from the previous week;
  • change in US crude oil in storage over the past week: 526.5 million bbls, about 10% above the already fat -- and getting fatter -- five-year average
  • all that talk about a propane shortage? propane inventories are about 14% above the five-year average for this time of year;
  • refiners operating at 69.4% capacity
  • gasoline production continued to decrease, as did distillate fuel prodution
  • US crude oil imports: 5.2 million bopd, down by almost 200,000 bopd from previous week
  • US crude oil imports are almost 25% less than the same four-week period last year
  • total products supplied: 16 millio b/d; down almsot 20% from same period last year
  • jet fuel supplied down a whopping 67% compared to last year
  • WTI: immediately after the report -- up almost 5%; now at $33.49
  • OPEC basket: immediately after report -- up over 6%; now about $28.21
  • But get this, Russian Urals, up over 11% overnight; reports that China needs more Russian Urals oil;

US crude oil in storage:
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 71
April 8, 2020
15.2
484.4
Week 72
April 15, 2020
19.2
503.6
Week 72
April 22, 2020
15.0
518.6
Week 73
April 29, 2020
9.0
527.6
Week 74
May 6, 2020
4.6
532.2
Week 75
May 13, 2020
-0.7
531.5
Week 76
May 20, 2020
-5.0
526.5

Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week


Week
Week Ending
Change
Week 0
March 11, 2020
-12.80%
Week 1
March 18, 2020
-12.60%
Week 2
March 25, 2020
-8.90%
Week 3
April 1, 2020
-16.40%
Week 4
April 8, 2020
-0.22%
Week 5
April 15, 2020
-39.70%
Week 6
April 22, 2020
-53.60%
Week 7
April 29, 2020
-61.60%
Week 8
May 6, 2020
-66.60%
Week 9
May 13, 2020
-68.50%
Week 10
May 30, 2020
-67.90%

Crude oil imports:
Crude Oil Imports



Week (week-over-week)
Week Ending
Raw Data, millions of bbls
Change (millions of bbls)
Week 0
March 11, 2029
6.4
0.174
Week 1
March 18, 2020
6.5
0.127
Week 2
March 25, 2020
6.1
-0.422
Week 3
April 1, 2020
6.0
-0.070
Week 4
April 8, 2020
5.9
-0.173
Week 5
April 15, 2020
5.7
-0.194
Week 6
April 22, 2020
5.6
-0.700
Week 7
April 29, 2020
5.3
0.365
Week 8
May 6, 2020
5.7
0.410
Week 9
May 13, 2020
5.4
-0.321
Week 10
May 20, 2020
5.2
-0.194