Monday, October 12, 2020

Notes From All Over -- But Not From The Bakken -- October 12, 2020

Ratings, sports, links:


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One New Permit; CLR Reports Three DUCs Completed -- October 12, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1358675933

One new permit:

  • Operator: BR
  • Field: North Fork
  • Comments:
    • BR has a permit for an Ole well in SWSW 20-149-96, 586' FSL and 1255' FWL, North Fork oil field

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36386, SI/A, CLR, Nadia 8-19H, Jim Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 36023, SI/A, CLR, Nadia 4-19H, Jim Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 36724, drl/A, CLR, Vardon 15-14HSL, Pershing,  t--; cum --;

Two Old White Men Awarded The 2020 Nobel Economics Prize -- October 12, 2020

Link here. Not only are they old and white and male, they are American. Geez, can't any other demographic group compete? 

By the way, these are technically not "Nobel Prizes," but prizes in honor of Alfred Nobel. Whatever. 

Paul Milgrom, b. 1948, making him three years older than I am, and Sophia said to me the other day, "wow, you are old." I noted she was six and I was almost 70. I was more than 10x older than she. That's when it dawned on her how old I really am. LOL.

Paul Milgrom: professor at Stanford University, US.

Robert Butler ("Bob" to his friends) Wilson, Jr: b. 1937. Geez. He's even older, age 83. Wow. Also at Stanford University, but "emeritus."

It is interesting about the Nobel prizes. Heavily overweighted:

  • Americans
  • white
  • old
  • male
  • Jewish

Where's the call for diversity?  

Social Distancing Since 2017

This is really good on so many levels.

In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida (Iron Butterfly); Sina

According to Sina:  

Featuring Christian Wolf, Andrei Cerbu and Rick Benbow. This is actually the most requested song on my channel but it was really hard to recreate, especially the organ parts, but also the vocals, bass and guitar bits. Without Rick, Andrei and Christian it would have been impossible to do. A big Thanks to everyone involved!

I'm hoping someone loops this for six hours and uploads it on YouTube.

I was thinking of doing "the best cover groups" but have decided to forego that for the moment. But Sina would be in the top ten, probably the top five, and most likely #1.

Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- October 12, 2020

Dining on the go: our older daughter and son-in-law down the street have been doing their best to support local restaurants. His company gave every employee a $100-gift card to be used at local restaurants; I don't know if that was a one-time good deal or if the company will repeat it periodically. 

In addition, the family has me over every Sunday evening for a dinner "catered" by a local restaurant. Generally it is delivered; occasionally, one of the family members drives to the restaurant to pick it up. Three observations:

  • generally, there's a mistake in the order, when ordering appetizers, entrees, desserts for six people; something is usually forgotten in the delivery (but it is not forgotten on the bill);
  • way overpriced; I'm not sure if we're seeing increased prices due to the restaurants' attempts to stay afloat, but restaurant prices seemed to have increased; and then, of course, the delivery fee, and delivery tip; and, worst of all,
  • food does not travel well.

On my own, I would never have "fine dining" delivered. I'm not even enamored with "less-than-fine-dining" being delivered. Food simply does not travel well. And it never looks all that great arriving in styrofoam/cardboard boxes with the food slippin' and slidin' around during the delivery. 

French fries don't travel well at all. 

That's probably why pizza delivery does so well. In addition to the umami factor -- cheese and tomato -- pizza not only travels really, really well, but it can be refrigerated very nicely -- and, on top of that -- much more value for the buck. 

Those were my thoughts. 

Then this article in The WSJ over the weekend:

"Diners Want More Meals To Go During Coronavirus. Chefs Are Feeling Boxed In." A cheesy headline that doesn't get to the real issue. The subtext: restaurants are wrestling with packaging shortages and high costs as they rush to meet the demand for takeout food and replicate the restaurant experience at home. "French-fries-to-go suck."

Interestingly, the share of "off-premise" (takeout) dining is trending toward pre-pandemic levels suggesting folks are experiencing the same things I noted above. If "off-premise" dining goes back to pre-pandemic levels it suggests that most folks are like me: takeout works in England for Indian food, and in the US for pizza, but that's about it.

By the way, remember that WSJ article in which the writer suggested a $120-differential in the price of an  Watch would keep people from buying an  Watch? From the linked article on dashdoor dining:

Garry Kanfer said he has spent at least $70,000 to create takeout packaging for his New York restaurant Kissaki Omakase, which serves a $150 per person multicourse traditional Japanese dinner––sometimes sushi topped with caviar. 
The challenge was finding a way to package the fish in a way that people would still want to pay $20 for a sushi roll or $7 per piece of nigiri.

Are you kidding me? The Apple Watch story and the dashdoor dining story are in the same newspaper, targeting the same demographic. One writer things folks willing to spend $150/person for grubhub dining won't tolerate a $120 differential on the price of a watch.

Dashdoor Dining: I Don't Love You Any More

Is she the best blues singer right now?

You Don't Love Me, Maria Daines

Notes From All Over -- Chinese Flu Update -- October 12, 2020

Color code makes absolutely no sense:

  • the color code allows Bismarck/Mandan and Fargo to hide in the shadows of Dickey (no deaths); LaMoure (no deaths); Pembina (no deaths); and two additional counties with but one death: Walsh; Mercer.

  • total deaths in North Dakota associated with Covid-19: 345
    • Bismarck-Mandan (Burleigh/Morton counties): 106
    • Fargo (Cass County): 78
    • Dickinson (Stark County): 25
    • Minot (Ward County): 20
    • Grand Forks: 14
    • Bakken (WMS/MNT/MCK/DUN counties): 21

Surge in the Dakotas: link to the Rapid City Journal

Deaths per million population:

  • North Dakota: once near the bottom of the list (good) has now moved to #24 (bad), worse than New Mexico, Ohio, California, and Minnesota; three new deaths reported in last 24 hours;
  • South Dakota: still about where it has always been (but slightly worse), at #35. The difference between North Dakota (445) and South Dakota (323) is not trivial: no new deaths reported in last 24 hours;
  • Wisconsin: surge in cases, but not deaths; #42 for deaths per million (good), at 252; with seven new deaths in last 24 hours, this could change;
  • I don't know: does North Dakota have four to six major centers of population vs only two in South Dakota? Was Lutheran Services more active/successful in North Dakota relocating refugees from the Mideast compared to their activities in South Dakota? University differences between North Dakota and South Dakota? Are masks the problem?

WHO: lock downs not the answer. 

Iran: number of cases surge; shatters single-day record; economy hit; country stats here;

Top ten, deaths per one million, throw out San Marino, Andorra. The Mideast is way over-represented by number of cases per million, but not so with regard to total deaths per million. With the latter, the Americas are way over-represented:

    • Peru: 1,006
    • Belgium: 877
    • Bolivia: 708
    • Brazil: 707
    • Spain: 704
    • Chile: 695
    • Ecuador: 688
    • USA: 663
    • Mexico: 647
    • UK: 630

    Italy? Ranked #13, 598 deaths per million.

    Vatican: reported this morning -- four Swiss guards test positive.

     North Texas: indications that Dallas / Ft Worth are experiencing a new surge in cases;


    • number of cases surging in Europe
    • number of cases rising in US, but deaths trending toward 50% of pandemic high
    • increasing number of young, healthy folks deliberately exposing themselves to Covid-19  

    Beatles Medley, Sina

    Enerplus Reports Two Nice Wells -- October 12, 2020

    Focus on fracking: has posted

    OPEC basket, link here: $41.06

    Back to the Bakken

    Active rigs:

    Active Rigs1358675933

    Two wells coming off the confidential list --

    Monday, October 12, 2020: 17 for the month; 17 for the quarter, 682 for the year

    • None.

    Sunday, October 11, 2020: 17 for the month; 17 for the quarter, 682 for the year

    • 35967, drl/NC, Enerplus, Everglades 148-95-02B-11H, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 84K 8/20; a 30K month; total drilling days, 14; planned lateral, 9,766' with 40 stages planned;

    Saturday, October 10, 2020: 16 for the month; 16 for the quarter, 681 for the year

    • 35966, drl/NC, Enerplus, Yellowstone 148-95-02B-11H, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 98K 8/20; a 29K month; 28,846 bbls over 12 days extrapolates to 72K over 30 days; total drilling days, 18; planned 9,766' lateral; with 40 stages;

    With regard to the Enerplus wells, see these links:

    RBN Energy: new Permian-to-Gulf gas pipelines to shake up regional flows and basis, part 2

    Permian natural gas production is now expected to grow at a subdued pace over the next five years, as lower oil prices and a focus on capital discipline have slashed rig counts. 
    Few observers see the Permian situation changing anytime soon, especially as crude oil prices continue to hover around $40/bbl. That said, the Permian gas market will be anything but dull over the months and years ahead. More than 4 Bcf/d of new outbound pipeline capacity from the Permian to the Gulf Coast will be coming online next year, throwing natural gas flows from West Texas into flux and deeply impacting neighboring markets. While natural gas basis at the Permian’s primary Waha hub should improve dramatically, outflow to the Midcontinent will likely fall sharply and potentially reverse, and the Texas Gulf Coast will see an influx of supply on the new pipelines.

    Retail -- Nothing About The Bakken -- October 12, 2020

    Earlier this afternoon -- I guess it "was" yesterday -- Sunday afternoon -- October 11, 2020, the oldest granddaughter and I went to Walmart to pick up a few things we didn't need. I had not been to any store other than the neighborhood grocery store in the past month or so. I had not been to Walmart in maybe two months. Wow, was I blown away. Walmart has completely refurbished their store here on Cheek-Sparger, right on the Grapevine / Bedford, TX, line. Brand new entrances; brand new self-checkout kiosks, and lots of them.

    The place was overflowing with merchandise. It looks like Walmart is getting ready for some kind of surge. It was amazing, and I've never seen so many Walmart employees. And cleaning? Wow, cleaning going on everywhere. 

    Amazon, link here:

    The coronavirus crisis has divided retail companies into two distinct groups: those with functioning e-commerce businesses, and those without.

    Many of the have-nots won't survive.

    The winners: The pandemic forced Amazon to hire more workers and overhaul its supply chains. But Jeff Bezos' juggernaut has emerged stronger than ever, repeatedly trouncing Wall Street's sales expectations.

    Other retailers that invested heavily in e-commerce before the pandemic are also thriving. Walmart is one example, but there are other less obvious success stories. Ikea, which is best known for its cavernous big box stores, reported a 45% increase in online sales over the 12 months to August.

    Going bust: The ranks of the less fortunate include companies that didn't fully embrace online shopping, or that relied too heavily on sales in malls. J. Crew, Brooks Brothers, Sur La Table and Men's Wearhouse owner Tailored Brands have all filed for bankruptcy in recent months. The company behind Pringle sweaters and Harris Tweed is also at risk of collapse.

    I didn't know about Sur La Table -- one of my favorite kitchen stores to visit, but not to buy. Way, way too expensive. I doubt Sur La Table's problem was e-commerce. They simply couldn't compete on price or customer service with the likes of Amazon. Really too bad; like I said, I really like the store. but whenever I visited -- well before the pandemic -- foot traffic seemed almost non-existent. I doubted they would survive. 

    I wonder about REI. It had record sales in 2019, but I see it laid off 5% of its staff back in July.

    Jazz Mix, Candy Dulfer