Tuesday, September 7, 2021

mRNA -- Game Over -- September 7, 2021

Updates

September 11, 2021: see this post. Whatever happened to the JNJ vaccine?

Original Post 

This is really cool. During the summer I ran into an individual that said the Covid-19 "vaccines" were not, in fact, vaccines. That blew me away. Of course they were vaccines. Maybe not. That's why I love philology. So, after hearing that, I went back to see where this "they are not vaccines" was coming from. 

I now understand where these folks are coming from. I can't recall; I think I may have talked about it before on the blog. I really can't recall.

But back to those folks who said these "Covid-19' vaccines are not really vaccines." 

Technically, I think they are correct. But it suggests to me these folks do not understand philology.

One of the seven habits of highly effective people, Stephen Covey:

#5: seek to understand first, before making yourself understood.

I understand. 

So, where are we now? 

From Yahoo!Finance, senior reporter Anjalee Khemlani, September 7, 2021: 

Pfizer and its partner BioNTech recently got FDA full approval for the most widely-approved and sought after COVID-19 vaccine in the world, to date.

It signals an important change in how vaccines of the future could look, according to Arnaud Bernaert, formerly head of Global Health and Healthcare at the World Economic Forum.

Bernaert, now head of Health Security Solutions at Swiss-based SICPA, told Yahoo Finance, "I think it's game over. I think it's mRNA or nothing. [Other technology] takes too long."

Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna (MRNA) are invested in the tech, with announcements of pursuits of combination flu-covid shots as well as other diseases.

The potential for mRNA was recognized early. 
"mRNA vaccines represent a promising alternative to conventional vaccine approaches because of their high potency, capacity for rapid development and potential for low-cost manufacture and safe administration," according to a 2018 article in Nature.

Vaccinia: 18th century "technology."

mRNA vaccines: 21st century technology.  

For information on how vaccines for "seasonal flu" are made, link here.

Whiting With Five New Olson Permits In Dollar Joe Oil Field -- WTI Holds Above $68 -- September 7, 2021

Active rigs*: daily activity report will have update active rig data:

$68.38
9/7/202109/07/202009/07/201909/07/201809/07/2017
Active Rigs26*9616654

Twenty-eight active rigs:

  • 26 oil and gas rigs
    • CLR with nine rigs 
    • Marathon with two rigs
    • Hess with two rigs
    • Enerplus with one rig
  • two SWD rigs

Five new permits: #38540 - #38544, inclusive:

  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Dollar Joe (WIlliams)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has permits for five "Olson" wells: the Richard Olson; the Ryder Olson; the Mariah Olson; the Marlys Olson; and, the Scott Olson.
    • the wells will be sited in lot 2 section 1-155-97; 271 FNL and between 1791 FEL and 1911 FEL

One well was released from the confidential list. Since this wells was not listed at the NDIC website earlier, it suggests the NDIC's "confidential list" site is also compromised.

  • 34579, loc/loc, Enerplus, Basilisk 151-94-16B-21H-TF, Antelope-Sanish, no production data; due to "compromised" database at the NDIC site, I have no idea if the scout ticket is correct. But coming off the confidential list, still showing as loc/loc seems strange.

Ivermectin Experience In India -- September 7, 2021

Updates

September 15, 2021: India update

September 7, 2021: Asia appears to be doubling down on Ivermectin, one of the safest drugs ever. Meanwhile, the US is getting ready to ban the drug outright. Link here. A huge thank you to a reader for sending me this link. 

I have no dog in this fight yet; I simply follow the science and am curious why the US would ban this incredibly safe drug without even performing controlled studies.  

The good news: it appears the virus will burn itself out sooner than later. Sweden is preparing to remove all "Covid-19 restrictions." Link here

Later: a reader provides this link: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/09/as-us-prepares-to-ban-ivermectin-for-covid-19-more-countries-in-asia-begin-using-it.html.

Original Post

I track this story here

From a reader.

Add India to the sub-Saharan experience.

Ivermectin.

Ivermectin.

Ivermectin.

Uttar Pradesh, India: most populous political subdivision in the world. Population, 200 million. Covid-19 related deaths, as of September 1, 2021: 22,825.

22,825 / 200 million = 0.00014 = 0.014% or rounding, 0.00%.

From this linked article:

The state Health Department introduced Ivermectin as prophylaxis for close contacts of Covid patients, health workers as well as for the treatment of the patients themselves through a government order on August 6, 2020. (Wikimedia Commons)

A year after the country’s first Covid-19 cluster, with 5 cases, was reported in Agra district, the Uttar Pradesh government has claimed that it was the first state to have introduced a large-scale “prophylactic and therapeutic” use of Ivermectin and added that the drug helped the state to maintain a lower fatality and positivity rate as compared to other states.

Citing the results from Agra in the month of May and June last year, following which the use of Ivermectin, a medicine to treat parasitic ailments, along with Doxycycline was introduced as a protocol across the state for both prophylactic as well as treatment purposes, the state Health Department said it would conduct a controlled study once the second wave of the pandemic subsides.

Why is India, and not the US, conducting a nationwide controlled study? 

US death rate:

0.2 / 0.01 = the US Covid-19-related death rate is 20 times that of a much more densely populated state in India. And we won't even discuss the state of health care in either country.

A four-tablet snack pack distributed to all physicians to dispense to close contacts of Covid-19 in India. A 3-mg table, once a day for four days = 12 mg total, if I read the article correctly.

Again, why does the US not do a controlled study:

  • no Ivermectin in California
  • Ivermectin in Florida

India will do exactly that once the current second wave dissipates. 

************************
Wynken, Blynken and Nod
aka Fauci, Blinken, and Joe

Wynken, Blynken, and Nod one night
   Sailed off in a wooden shoe,—
Sailed on a river of crystal light
   Into a sea of dew.
"Where are you going, and what do you wish?"
   The old moon asked the three.
"We have come to find the Covid-19 cure,
   That thrives in this beautiful sea;
   Bottles and bottles have we,"
            Said Wynken,
            Blynken,
            And Nod.

The old moon laughed and sang a song,
   As they rocked in the wooden shoe;
And the wind that sped them all night long
   Ruffled the waves of dew;
The little stars were the Ivermectin tabs
   That thrived in the beautiful sea.
"Now cast your bottles wherever you wish,—
   Never afraid are we!"
   So cried the stars to the fishermen three,
            Wynken,
            Blynken,
            And Nod.

All night long their bottles they threw
   To the stars in the twinkling foam,—
Then down from the skies came the wooden shoe,
   Bringing the fishermen home:
'Twas all so pretty a sail, it seemed
   As if it could not be;
And some folk thought 'twas a dream they'd dreamed
   Of sailing that beautiful sea;
   But I shall name you the fishermen three:
            Wynken,
            Blynken,
            And Nod.

Wynken and Blynken are two little bods,
   And Nod is a little head,
And the wooden shoe that sailed the skies
   Is a wee one's trundle-bed;
So shut your eyes while Mother sings
   Of wonderful sights that be,
And you shall see the beautiful things
   As you rock in the misty sea
   Where the old shoe rocked the fishermen three:—
            Wynken,
            Blynken,
            And Nod.

See first comment: https://poets.org/poem/wynken-blynken-and-nod

*************************************
Today's History Lesson

The Moriscos: from Brittanica.

This week's book: The Great Sea: A Human History of the Mediterranean, illustrated edition, David Abulafia, c. 2013.

A great book to start re-reading again during Rosh Hashanah, September 6, 2021, - September 8, 2021. Skip to chapter 155 of 213 to read about the Moriscos. 

***********************
Some Days

Some days I lose all interest in the news, in the stock market, in anything -- today is one of those days. 

It's going to be a day of reading, swimming, and watching Gary Cooper and Ingrid Bergman in Saratoga Trunk. Movie-goers beware: a midget and an actress in blackface have leading roles, and the movie is set in 1800's New Orleans, French Quarter. This movie should be an "R" or perhaps even an "X." It could be difficult to watch for some. Interestingly enough, the African-American is allowed to join Ingrid Bergman in an otherwise-all-white upper class restaurant. OMG, the blasphemy. It's actually a pretty good movie to watch. Based on a novel by Edna Ferber. And this is why I love TCM. A 1945 movie. Casablanca: 1942.

Saratoga Trunk was Warner Bros.' most popular movie of 1946, according to wiki. Flora Robson, in blackface, was nominated as best supporting actress. 

***************************
Summer of '21

Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- September 7, 2021

Updates

Apple: just announces September 14, 2021, launch day. AAPL is up almost $2.00/share. When will the talking heads call this a break-out?

Why is Dow down today? I think AAPL provides a hint. What changes today: that Covid-19 state unemployment supplement, up to $300/week in extra benefits, ends today

Later, 11:04 a.m. CT: whoo-hoo! AAPL just went up over a percent from last week's close. Now trading up $1.69/share up 1.13%. Whoo-hoo!

Original Post

The numbers:

  • DXY: 92.53 (up)
  • WTI: $68.34 (down)
  • TYT: 1.378% (up)
  • Dow: down 260 points (down 0.73%)
  • S&P 500: down 17 points
  • NASDAQ: down less than 1 points (flat)
  • Shares of interest (I do not invest in all of these; some I do; others are simply of interest and will probably never start a position, as they say)
    • AAPL: up $1.21/share; up 0.79%
    • NFLX: up $20/share; up 3.43%;
    • ENB: flat at $40.03
    • EPD: down half a percent
    • ARKK: down about a third of a percent; trading at $124.60
    • SRE: down 3/4th of a percent; trading at $132

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

From ARK's newsletter today:

The FAA is investigating Virgin Galactic after learning about a mishap during the flight that carried Richard Branson to space. While the flight looked picture-perfect, the spacecraft deviated from its planned trajectory, potentially putting its landing at risk. 
In a scathing report, The New Yorker highlighted Virgin Galactic’s lackadaisical processes and procedures, noting that it fired a flight-test director who raised concerns about the space program’s safety. 
The New Yorker also contrasted Virgin Galactic’s strategy and technology to those of its competitors, Blue Origin and SpaceX. 
At Virgin Galactic, humans control extraordinarily complex systems, while Blue Origin and SpaceX have automated them. 
ARK believes that automation adds to the safety and security of complex systems, not just rockets but all vehicles.

Quick: What US County Has Highest GDP Per Capita? -- September 7, 2021

Re-posting. I don't want this graphic, posted earlier, to be lost in the shuffle:

Graphic of the day: look closely. Link here.

Streaming Wars

Updates

September 10, 2021: Amazon may get exclusive rights to the NFL Sunday Ticket. Amazon already has Thursday Night Football (NFL).

September 9, 2021: I knew the mismatch between Apple and Netflix was bad; I just did not know it was this bad. Link here.

September 7, 2021: First things first: Seinfeld leaves Hulu and goes to Netflix.  

Reported as early as June 23, 2021 On a day the market is slumping (the Dow is down almost 300 points), NFLX us surging: adding $20/share; up over 3%; trading at $610.60. We don't get Netflix, but we do get Hulu. It looks like we still get Seinfeld. But those days may be numbered. I associate Hulu with Disney with ABC. Seinfeld originally aired on NBC.

August 20, 2021 (link here): The next big thing: Netflix -- one of my favorite subjects on the blog -- called this years ago; Netflix surges; up $22 yesterday; up 4% yesterday; trading at $544. 

From Tomi Kilgore: Netflix stock shoots up toward biggest gain in seven months

From Benzinga:

Streaming giants Disney Co, Netflix Inc and Roku Inc

are in constant competition to dominate the screens of viewers worldwide. Traders and investors may prefer the companies for different reasons: Netflix as a pure streaming play; Roku hosts a variety of different streaming services including Netflix on its set-top box; or Disney, which offers diversity through its streaming, cruises, amusement parks and retail footprints.

All three stocks have settled into patterns that could give both bulls and bears a way to play.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Original Post

*****************************
Streaming: It's All About Content, Cost, and Ease of Use
July 28, 2021
(link here)

Content, cost and east of use: but of the three, only content really matters. Ease of use is pretty much a non-issue any more, and, same with cost.

Hulu: until recently I did not understand Roku. Last night I spent a bit of time reading about Roku (a hardware business) and streaming businesses, like Hulu, Amazon, etc. I'm about the last person one wants to listen to when it comes to technology but, wow, I can see where the world is headed. 

Facetime: about a year ago I bought Apple's largest desktop iMac. Our dining area is configured in such a way that the iMac sits perfectly for Facetime calls with family. In addition, it is absolutely perfectly placed for watching television. I use the word "television" loosely because, yes, it's "television" as most of us understand it, but it's not my dad's "television." It's all streaming. I will have to ask our high school granddaughters if they and their peers watch "television" any more, or if they watch Hulu, Roku, Disney+, etc. 

Apple TV+: I've talked about Apple TV+ many, many times. It's a huge disappointment. So, what's better, Hulu or Roku? You can't ask that question: the former is a software / streaming / content entity; the latter is a hardware company that streams "things" like Hulu. So, what's better, Hulu or something else? Quick, name a direct competitor with Hulu. 

Google: what is best streaming tv service hulu roku. Link here for a CNET answer to that question that was posted just two days ago: best live TV streaming service for cord-cutters. Only five make the cut: AT&T TV, FuboTV, Hulu Plus Live TV, Sling TV, and YouTube TV.

What's missing: Disney+, Apple TV+, Netflix. HBO Max. Pluto TV, Amazon. Yes, I know many of these are a bit like comparing apples and oranges, but unlike Roku none of these are hardware companies (except possibly Apple to some extent, and maybe even Amazon, to a very small extent, if you want to be a purist.)

The five: AT&T TV, FuboTV, Hulu Plus Live TV, Sling TV, and YouTube TV. How did CNET rate them. It appears the panel did not want to upset any of the companies. Depending on which metric was being compared, each of the five won out in one category or another.

  • I was not surprised to see YouTube TV come out on top overall. I don't subscribe to YouTube TV but I've always had a hunch that You Tube TV would be the best.
  • Hulu, which I do use, is either as good as YouTube TV or a close second; long term, Hulu will have a huge challenge fending off YouTube TV
  • FuboTV? I bet it's gone or absorbed by another streaming company within five years
  • AT&T TV: I have no idea. CNET says AT&T TV is best for channel flippers and sports fans. It also also allows up to 20 devices to stream simultaneously where the others allow only three (or two in come cases) devices to stream simultaneously on one account; think about that -- on one account, twenty devices can be used simultaneously.
  • Sling TV: it will have to change drastically (and when it does, it will have to double its subscription price) to survive.

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- September 7, 2021

Updates

Later, 10:18 a.m.: a very, very sharp-eyed reader noted that Storey County, Nevada, was also among the US counties with highest per capita GDP. Storey County, Nevada, is where Tesla is building a gigafactory:

First things first: Seinfeld leaves Hulu and goes to Netflix.  

Reported as early as June 23, 2021 On a day the market is slumping (the Dow is down almost 300 points), NFLX us surging: adding $20/share; up over 3%; trading at $610.60. We don't get Netflix, but we do get Hulu. It looks like we still get Seinfeld. But those days may be numbered. I follow the streaming wars here. I associate Hulu with Disney with ABC. Seinfeld originally aired on NBC.

Graphic of the day: look closely. Link here.

Top story of the year: European energy crunch. Another day, another record. Natural gas and electricity prices rising to fresh all-time high. New records in the UK. In Germany, one-year forward prices climb to $100 per MWh. Link here.

UK power prices: new record high. Link to ArgusMedia

Just the beginning: link to Julianne Geiger. These higher prices in Europe are just the beginning.

Drivers: Europeans hit the road to fire rebound in continent's oil demand. Link here.

Bakken population: over at Zerohedge, oil boom turns North Dakota county into nation's fastest growing populace. Previously reported. Link here

Bakken flatlines: global market forces and ESG likely to hold Bakken production flat thorugh the foreseeable future. Link to Williston Herald.  

Total Energies [Quick! Its former name. Its ticker symbol.] Link to Irina Slav. To spend $27 billion on Iraqi oil and solar projects.

College dropouts: a generation of American men give up on college. Link to The WSJ

Watch that decimal point: El Salvadorans can now legally pay for a haircut in "bitcoin." Bitcoin now trades for $50,000.

Cybersecurity: Ironnet. Huge story. Surges 115%; could be the next meme stock. Memo to self. Link to Barron's. Paywall, but story everywhere. Look at founder. Then imagine what his rolodex looks like. Twitter.

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List; WTI Holds Above $68; Enbridge Buys Smaller USGC Midstreamer -- September 7, 2021

Enbridge: buys USGC midstreamer; $3 billion deal. Link here. ENB up one cent.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs*: current data is presented COB. 

$68.58
9/7/202109/07/202009/07/201909/07/201809/07/2017
Active Rigs26*9616654

No wells coming off the confidential list.

RBN Energy: Navitas Midstream's staged build-out of Permian gas processing capacity.

Many U.S. hydrocarbon production basins have experienced major ups and downs the past few years — the Haynesville, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and SCOOP/STACK, to name just a few. The Permian hasn’t been entirely immune from bad times either — crude oil and associated gas production there plummeted in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic last year and again during the Deep Freeze in February this year — but it would be fair to say that the play’s Midland Basin has been among the energy industry’s surest bets during the Shale Era, with strong, highly predictable gains in output that producers and midstreamers alike can pretty much bank on. As a result, a number of gas-and-NGL-focused midstream companies have been taking the long view in their planning for new gathering systems, gas processing plants, and connections to a multitude of takeaway pipelines. In today’s blog, we discuss one company’s development of a now-massive and flexible hub-and-spokes network in the heart of the Midland.

As we said in Part 1 of this blog series on Permian gas processing, production in the broader, West Texas/southeastern New Mexico production region has doubled to 13.4 Bcf/d over the past four years. To keep pace with that growth, the midstream sector has spent many billions of dollars on new gas-gathering systems, processing plants, and gas and NGL pipelines, with virtually all of that investment backed by long-term commitments from producers and other market players. Thanks to that build-out, the Permian now has sufficient takeaway capacity — at least for another couple of years. But despite the 50-plus processing plants that have come online in the play’s Delaware and Midland basins in recent years, still more processing capacity is needed, as evidenced by the more than 1.3 Bcf/d of new or relocated plants scheduled to begin operating in the Permian over the next 16 months.