Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Nothing About The Bakken Except For The Flood Update -- Just Idle Rambling -- Lots Of Free Time This Evening -- July 23, 2019

This is pretty funny: Alfalfa suggesting that Saudi Arabia will no longer be a refiner in the future, but rather a global leader in renewable energy. LOL.

I don't know if Alfalfa has actually said that in so many words, but after reading this article over at oilprice.com my hunch he has said enough along this line to make folks roll their eyes.

For what it's worth, the linked article is something for the archives. The data point to watch: the amount of fossil fuel Saudi Arabia is importing.  We've been talking about this for several years.

The Sports Entertainment Page

I assume every major television outlet (is that the right word? I'm blocking on this) in the country has a station devoted to the local baseball team: NYC (Mets and Yankees); Los Angeles (Dodgers); Boston (Red Sox); Minneapolis (the Twins); St Louis (Cardinals); Chicago (whatever). But, it seems it would be hard to beat what Channel 36, FSSWD, has in the DFW area: the Texas Rangers coverage. Tonight, the Rangers are in Seattle, so a late game for us here in Texas. Wow, the network does a great job. Pre-game. The game. Post-game. Even the commercials are awesome.

Cable gets more and more expensive, but here I am, watching the Rangers in Seattle. Whatever cable is costing me, it's a lot less than what it would cost to fly there, take an Uber, and then purchase stadium tickets, T-Mobile Park.

By the way, in a different time, and a different place, I would be watching the St Louis Cardinals tonight with a most wonderful woman.

Wow, wow, wow .. first pitch of the game -- solo home run -- of course it's "solo" -- it was the first pitch of the game. Shin-Soo Choo. Coincidentally, Shin-Soo Choo, now playing for the Texas Rangers, has also played for the Seattle Mariners, who they are playing against tonight. Why didn't the announcers mention that? I bet they didn't know that. LOL.

Betsy Ross Flat T-Shirt

I'm on the fence whether to buy one. But talk about a huge marketing coup.

Flood Update In The Bakken

Link here. What a mess.

Two Words: John Svedrup -- July 23, 2019

See these two links:
From the first link:
Other surprises, re: production:

  • crude oil: China, #5; ahead of every middle Eastern country except Saudi Arabia
  • natural gas: #7, Norway; the latter did not meet the top ten list for crude oil
  • coal: among the top, Germany which is thought to be (one of) the "greenest" countries in the western world, among the countries that signed the Kyoto Protocol; China produces 46% of the world's total

Nothing About The Bakken -- Investing -- Idle Rambling -- July 23, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Shoes. I will go out and buy Sophia some new shoes tomorrow. LOL:

52-week high: $198.

Comment: the buzz going into 2Q19 earnings season -- gloom and doom.

Comment: between now (2Q19) and 3Q20 -- these are the 800-lb gorillas on Wall Street --
  • Chinese tariffs (very, very bullish)
  • Fed action (very, very bullish)
  • Apple (related to Chinese tariffs) (bullish)
  • closer to 3Q20: Presidential election (very bullish)
Comment: these are now off the table --
  • energy (bullish)
  • debt ceiling (bullish)
  • British PM / Brexit (neutral)
  • Boeing (neutral)
Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and inappropriately exuberant about opportunities to invest in America.

Wells That I No Longer Track -- Page 12

For first eleven pages in this series, see this link; scroll to bottom of that page.

I no longer track these wells:

June 5, 2019: huge, neighboring well recently fracked; check on these two wells; nice but unremarkable; stand-alone post not necessary;
  • 23209, 2,009, MRO, William USA 31-2TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/13; cum 294K 1/19;
  • 21466, 2,448, MRO, William USA 31-2H, Reunion Bay, t713; cum 464K 6/19; nice jump, 6/19;
June 4, 2019: #19390, 175, Oasis/SM, Broderson 13-35H, Siverston, Bakken, t2/11; cum 403K 6/19; just came off line 3/19; back on line as of 5/19; unremarkable;

May 31, 2019, from the June, 2019, dockets: Case 27626, New Horizon Resources, LLC; re-completion of the Harold Haugen 25-1 well (#6900) into the Gunton Formation (Red River) (see below) at a location approx 500 feet FSL and 2140 feet FWL of section 25-161-103, Divide County; came off confidential list 8/19;

May 20, 2019: several wells in the area recently fracked; this one still offline --
23176, 1,490, MRO, Tara Jo USA 34-12TFH, Reunion Bay, t1/13; cum 400K 7/19; offline 11/18; still offline 3/19; inactive; back on status 5/19; possibly a small jump in production; need to follow through 10/19; ended up having a bit of a production jump; very obvious but not worth a stand-alone post;

May 16, 2019, see this post --
  • 34046, 3,091, MRO, Two Bar 34-55H, Bailey, t4/19; cum 66K 6/19; section 35-146-94;
    • neighboring wells:
      • 16736, just returned to production; see recent production profile below; huge production jump; it was re-fracked;
      • 25484, off line; just came back on line, 6/19; worth looking at again in 8/19; small jump in production; not remarkable;
      • 25482, off line; four days in 4/19; back on line, no change in production profile;
February 3, 2019, #28704. Remains off line, 6/19; back on line 7/19 for 21 days with 1,107 bbls;

January 14, 2019: #16975; many wells to the north were just fracked; this one off line for two months; still off line in 2/19; two days of production, 3/19; remains off line 5/19; coming back on line slowly, 6/19; watch next month; poor production, 7/19;
January 6, 2019: #29752, #29753,  #29754, 29755, 29962;  off-line much of 2018; still off line as of 6/19. SHD Oil & Gas; all wells went to AB status; 8/19;

December 1, 2018; #18066, still active; went inactive 6/18; now AB 8/19;

May 23, 2019Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed, see this post:
  • 33027, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H2, Elm Tree, 4/19 producing small amount;
  • 33026, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H, Elm Tree, 4/19 producing small amount;
  • 33025, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H1, Elm Tree, 4/19 producing small amount;
    • neighboring wells
      • to the east, running same direction
        • 18138, nice jump in production;
        • 19503, remains off line as of 3/19; huge jump, back on line as of 5/19;
      • to the west, running same direction, south to north
        • 19397, remains off line as of 3/19;
      • to the north, running same direction, south to north
        • 20804, remains off line as of 3/19; back on line as of 6/19;
        • 24473, back on line for 13 days; too early to say if any production jump; 3/19;
        • 20805, back on line for 11 days; too early to say if any production jump; 3/19;
June 30, 2019: #27177; off line since 9/18; back on line 4/19; 2,500 bbls over 5 days; huge jump in production 5/19; 

December 1, 2018: #20026, off line as of 9/18; lots of new activity in the area; remains IA 6/19; huge jump in production, 7/19

May 14, 2019, #20212. See this post.
October 3, 2016: a great well taken off line in August, 2016: 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale, Bakken, s1/11; t9/11; AL; cum 1.672864 million bbls 6/19; 24 stages; 2.4 million lbs; middle Bakken; runs south; 4 section spacing; this is an incredible well; still 19,000 bbls in October, 2015; off-line all of 8/16; back on-line September, 2016; updated here; see this post, 3/19; something doesn't add up. Very interesting profile;
May 12, 2019: These two wells have come off line recently; no other information, see this post:
  • 25329, 2,275, MRO, LBM Tuhy USA 41-4H, Murphy Creek, t9/13; cum 189K 6/19; off line as of 1/19; back on line for fourteen days, 4/19; back in production; nothing remarkable, 6/19;
  • 25328, 2,034, MRO, Judy Tuhy USA 31-4H, Murphy Creek, t9/13; cum 172K 6/19; off line as of 2/19; back on line for twelve days, 4/19; back in production; nothing remarkable, 6/19;
May 6, 2019: #18249, a Lundeen well; diagonal across huge Aagvik well; need to see if any halo effect; need to follow another month or so; back on line as of 5/19, thirteen days with nice production; follow a couple of more months; then remove, 6/19; a small jump in production; nothing remarkable; 

April 4, 2019: a reader thinks this well is "broken." #34763. Post here.
April 3, 2019: check on the wells in parentheses that are off line (see this note, August 30, 2019):
  • 35291, 1,760, Whiting, Berg Trust Federal 34-22TFHU, Pembroke, t3/19; cum --;  (#20516 off line; #20596 -- off line); both #20516 and #20596 are now back on line, 4/19; nice wells; (#20516 with nice jump in production; needs stand-alone post update)
  • 35290, 2,317, Whiting, Berg Trust Federal 34-22H, Pembroke, t3/19; cum 109K 5/19 (huge well); (#26943 -- off line, #25361 -- off line); both coming back on line, 4/19;
August 1, 2018PNC as of 8/19 / #30312; still confidential; sits between two million-bbl wells; Amber Renee was only 800K but it was shut down for some reason; #30312 is Sophia Drake -- eager to see how this one does; remains on conf 6/19; replaced by #36888 and #36887;

June 5, 2019: #20402, MRO, Eckelberg, Bailey oil field;

May 5, 2019: off line for awhile; now one day back on status; rig on site in area; activity nearby; check back monthly to see what production did;
  • 32453, 3,396, MRO, Marcella USA 21-4TFH, Antelope-Sanish, 7/17; cum 252K 6/19; nice production in 4/19; 5/19;
April 2, 2019: see this post. #33668; #18514; #33431; #23176; and, #21458; and, this post. As of 4/19, older wells still off line; it appears all wells now back on line with great results; see this post;

February 3, 2019, 28459. Back on line as of 2/19; no jump in production, 4/19;

February 3, 2019, 28360. Back on line for 13 days, 4/19;

February 3, 2019, 28358. Back on line for 17 days, 4/19;

February 3, 2019, 28111. Back on line for 7 days, 4/19;

February 3, 2019, 25114. Remains off line, 4/19;

February 3, 2019, 24973. Back on line for five days, 4/19;

February 3, 2019, 24075. Remains off line 4/19;

February 3, 2019, 23980. Remains off line 4/19;

February 3, 2019, 22658. Back on line for 22 days, 4/19;

February 3, 2019, 22451. Back on line for 15 days, 4/19;

February 3, 2019: 22333. See this post.

January 30, 2019: 34613, 3,146, WPX, Benson 3HC; follow up on neighboring wells -- 27070, 27068, 27069, and particularly, 18948 (still off line 6/19; IA), and 22629; some are still off-line; one showed no jump in production; one shows a subtle jump; need to check dates; all to be done later; the only one still off line is #18948; none have shown PWU (parent well uplift)

January 14, 2019: #27151, 2,208, MRO, Glisar 14-32TFH, Reunion Bay, t8/14; cum 233K 6/19; off-line as of 9/18; a big well -- what's going on? And, #27152. See this post. Both wells still off line as of 4/19; coming back on line; small production, 5/19, for both wells; both wells seem to be back to normal, 6/19;

November 27, 2018: #20529, neighboring MRO wells in Reunion Bay fracked; remains inactive 5/19; nice jump in production when it came back on line, 6/19; see this post;

November 10, 2018: #22333 (a Three Forks well), off line since 4/18; neighboring middle Bakken well re-fracked; 22332 (middle Bakken --no change); still off-line 12/18; now IA; A, 5/19; but minimal production; back into full production as of 6/19; a MRO Bailey well; no jump in production noted when back on line; 

November 6, 2018: #22044, Zavanna, George; off line; neighboring wells being drilled; will be six months or so before we see anything; still off line as of 12/18; on IA status; back on line as of 4/19 for 8 days; off line 5/19 but still A; wow, huge jump, 6/19; see this post;

July 16, 2018: a re-frack? #17318. Along the same line, #17333.  Update: #17318 still off line (8/18) but #17333 back on line; minimal bump in production; check #19375; 17318 is IA (1/19); remains inactive, 4/19; A as of 5/19, but not producing much; back to 1,600 bbls, 6/19;

July 31, 2017: #16531, BR, just came back on-line after off-line for quite some time; back off-line; still off-line as of 12/18; on line for one day in 4/18; off-line 5/18; on line one day, 6/18; off-line 9/18; one day of production 2/19; off-line 4/19; 31 days in 5/19 produces a measly 860 bbls; coming back? 6/19 with 1,030 bbls; t6/07; cum 218K 6/19;

March 16, 2019: 18924, 1,361, Slawson, Vixen Federal 1-19-30H, Van Hook, Bakken, t2/11; cum 523K 5/19; looks like two neighboring Vixen Federal wells soon to be fracked; back on line, 4/19; needs stand-alone post update;

January 14, 2019: #27964, 541, XTO, Kathy 31X-15C,  Tioga, t1/15; slow to start production; production really began 7/15; cum 54K 11/18; off line 10/18 - what's going on? As of 1/19, back on line; production up slightly; no sundry form; still struggling, 5/19; looks like it will settle in at 700 bbls/month;

January 11, 2019: #20516; recently off-line; was a good well; still off line as of 3/19; just came back on line as of 4/19; will watch for full month production; back to full production; nothing of interest;

January 6, 2019: #28747; a mediocre Slawson Clarks Creek Jore Federal well off line much of this year; nice jump in 2/19; will watch for a few more months. See this post. Off line 3/19; back on line 4/19 with nice jump in production; 

January 4, 2019: #29688, #29690, #29689, #29687; updated; one well (#29688) still off-line; #29688 back on line as of 3/19 -- a nice well;
  • 29690, 1,745, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-6, Truax, t11/18; cum 87K 5/19;
December 25, 2018: #18682, #20747, #17318 -- need to update #17318 if it comes back on line -- update at this post); updated; A, 5/19 but lousy production;
  • 29793, 1,634, Hunt, Cook 146-93-24-13H-3, Werner, FracFocus: 9.3 million gallons of water; 47 stages; 6.9 million lbs; t11/18; cum 145K 5/19;
January 4, 2019: #16957; #18271 -- coming back on line; production looks good; check back in April/May, 2019 --
  •  34203, 3,137, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-7, Blue Buttes, t12/18; cum 47K 5/19;
November 26, 2017: #18787; near a number of recently fracked wells; has been off line since 11/17; still off line as of 12/18; now AB (1/19);

September 26, 2018: #18787, AB, 1/19; near two recently fracked wells, #33482 and #33483;

January 24, 2018: #18626; nearby well, #33721, recently fracked. Look at map to see where #33721 and #33722 run. #18626 is IA as of 12/18; remains IA 4/19; AB, 5/19:

August 9, 2017: #17975, now AB. #32751, 417, Enerplus, Denali 148-95-12D-01H-TF, Eagle Nest, t7/17; cum 143K 3/19; (#17975)

December 31, 2016: #32847 (PNC), #33067, #32846 (PNC), #32845 (PNC) on a 4-well pad sitting near a great short-lateral EOG well, #17044.

Huge Crude Oil Inventory Draw -- API; WTI? Flat -- July 23, 2019

Link here.

Talk about click bait.

WTI up 33 cents at the close.

I guess, for some, that's a "spike."

Screenshot from oilprice:

Inventory draw:
  • 10.961 million bbls (note the false precision)
  • expectations: 4.011 million bbls

Nine DUCs Completed; WPX With Several Huge Wells; Seven New Permits -- July 23, 2019

Seven new permits, #36775 - #36780, inclusive:
  • Operators: Whiting (4); BR (3)
  • Fields: Sanish (Mountrail); Pershing (McKenzie)
  • Comments: 
    • Whiting has permits for a 4-well Iverson pad in section 14-154-92, Sanish oil field
    • BR has permits for a 3-well Bailey-George/George pad in lot 4 / section 7-150-96, Pershing oil field
Fourteen permits renewed:
  • BR (6) six CCU Gopher permits in Dunn County
  • XTO (5): five Zane Federal permits in McKenzie County 
  • EOG (2): two Burke permits in Mountrail County
  • Whiting: one Tarpon Federal permit in McKenzie County
Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 35543, 2,635, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HIL, Antelope-Sanish, t6/19; cum --;
  • 32272, 1,927, Slawson, Submariner Federal 2-23-20H, Big Bend, t6/19; cum --;
  • 32274, 2,117, Slawson, Submariner Federal 2SLH, Big Bend, t6/19; cum --;
  • 35545, 3,150, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HZ, Antelope-Sanish, t6/19; cum --;
  • 35546, 3,940, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32HD, Antelope-Sanish, t6/19; cum --;
  • 35306, 925, Hess, BL-Domy-156-95-2932H-10, Antelope-Sanish, t6/19; cum --;
  • 35305, 1,259, Hess, BL-Domy-156-95-2932H-9, Beaver Lodge, t6/19; cum --;
  • 35304, 752, Hess, BL-Domy-156-95-2932H-8, Beaver Lodge, t5/19; cum 3K over 5 days;
  • 35303, 1,179, Hess, BL-Domy-156-95-2932H-7, Beaver Lodge, t5/19; cum 10K over 7 days; 
Halo effect:
  • 19368, 115, Slawson, Submariner Federal 1-23-24H, Van Hook, t8/11; cum 429K 5/19; nice jump in production; in May, 2018, crude oil production would extrapolate to 11K over 30 days, 5x higher than the production in 6/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

BR's Blue Ridge Wells In Keene Oil Field Updated -- July 23, 2019

BR's Blue Ridge wells in Keene oil field have been updated. Nice wells but nothing particularly remarkable in update.

Oh - Oh -- July 23, 2019

Katie Ledecky.

Must Be Filled With Bakken Light Oil, Or Powered With A Tesla Battery-- July 23, 2019

Just joking, of course.

From oilprice.

Off the net for awhile.

At Least It Wasn't An Oil Truck -- July 23, 2019

From the article:
Authorities said the total weight of the truck was 43 tons and the bridge had a limit of only 14 tons.
The bridge, built in 1906, was listed on the National Register of Historic Places; over the Goose River, near Northwood, ND.
Police issued the driver of the truck a citation for $11,400 and estimate repairs to the landmark could cost anywhere between $800,000 and $1,000,000.
It was not immediately clear if weight-limit signs were posted.
And folks are in jail in the south for selling a bit of marijuana?

Had this been an oil truck I assume the CEO of the company would be in prison by the end of the day and the company facing a multi-billion-dollar fine.

The CLR Jersey Wells Are Updated -- July 23, 2019

The CLR Jersey wells are tracked here.
Things are moving along.

Compare the old graphics with the new graphics and one will see all the completed wells and all the wells on confidential status.

 The graphic below will be updated at the link above where the Jersey wells are tracked.

The update production numbers were pretty much in line with what one might expect, but this well was interesting to look at:
  • 28002, 1,359, CLR, Jersey 4-6H2, Alkali Creek, t9/17; cum 321K 5/19;
Look at the nice early production data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

But this is why this is an interesting well. Even though the legal name Jersey 4-6H2 suggests a second bench well it was permitted as a "Three Forks B3" well and, in fact, the permit for #28002 is for "Jersey 4-6H3", (2560-acre spacing). The completion/sundry form says it was a Three Forks B2 well: stimulated/tested, 5/28/2017, with 54 stages, 7.4 million lbs of sand (moderate amount); TVD for the Three Forks stated to be 10,502 feet. The geologist's narrative is not scanned into the file report as of this date (July 23, 2019).

So, let's see if we can find a "true" H3 well.
  • 27998, 1,059, CLR, Jersey 8-6H3, four sections; Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum 236K 5/19; name change and target change to a first bench well (H1);
Early production:

Current production:

Permitted as a "Three Forks B3" well. Tested/stimlulated, 6/11/17; 58 stages, 12.4 million lbs of sand (high end); the sundry form says it was the "Three Forks B1" stimulated. TVD for Three Forks target was 10,498 feet. In a sundry form received January 28, 2019, CLR refers to this well as the "Jersey 8-1H1." Again no geologist's narrative. ENSECO says the well name is "Jersey 8-6H3." Ah, here it is, in a sundry form received January 5, 2015, CLR changed the name and the target to Three Forks B1, name change to "Jersey 8-6H1."

Hopefully we will eventually see the geologists' narratives for these wells.

Daily Note

Polling: Real Clear Politics
115th  US Congress
Third 100 Days

September 8, 2019, T+50: Pocahontas talking with Hillary? Let's see how this plays out. 

September 7, 2019, T+49: there's a reason he's called "crazy." And yet nearly 20% of Democrats polled/responded want Bernie to be their party's presidential nominee. Biden is getting just as crazy, saying we can't get ICE vehicles off the road fast enough.

September 6, 2019, T+48: running against Trump won't win the election. Ask Kamala Harris. Link here

September 5, 2019, T+47: it seems to me that polls are coming out more frequently. Where are we today, most recent poll through September 3 --
  • bloody-eyed Biden: up to 30.4%; a reversal of sorts; not statistically significant, but a turn, nonetheless
  • Pocahontas surging: that's the word mainstream media is peddling. What's the number? At 17.1% a significant move -- has broken the 17% threshhold -- in the previous poll, crazy Bernie was also at 17.1%
  • Bernie: at 16.3% and now clearly in third place behind Pocahontas
  • Kamala: won't recover; continues to slide; now at 6.6%
  • Buttigieg: unchanged at 4.6%
  • Yang (give everyone a grand/month): from 2.5% to 2.6%
  • Steyer: not on the stage
  • Beto: from 2.4% to 2.1% 
  • Current prediction:
    • DNC Convention, first vote: Biden: 35%; Pocahontas: 30%; Bernie: 15%
    • DNC Convention, second vote: Biden: 45%; Pocahontas: 35%; Bernie: 16%
September 4, 2019, T+46: quiet.

September 3, 2019, T+45: circular firing squad update --
  • Biden: down to 28.9%; flat, no change;
  • Bernie: at 17.1%; at one time as high as 24%; he will probably level out at 12%
  • Beto: 2.4% 
  • Buttigieg: 4.6%
  • Pocahontas: 16.5%; at 19% (Quinnipiac) and 20% (Monmouth); she is trending down despite the media's current enthusiasm; she has never polled higher than 18.5%
  • Kamala: 7.0%
  • Steyer: not even on the list of 13; I assume he is sitting at 0.5%
  • Yang (give everyone a thousand-dollar-monthly-check): 2.5% 
  • more and more and more this looks like a brokered convention -- even as Biden levels out, the next two -- Pocahontas and crazy Bernie aren't moving up in the polls. The Dems are looking for a diva ex machina.
September 2, 2019, T+44: quiet.

September 1, 2019, T+43: "Hillary lingers on edge of 2020 race." -- The American Mirror.  Diva ex machina.

August 31, 2019, T+42: wow, this is amazing. It is obvious that FoxNews is outfoxing The New York Times regarding the Comey story. New York Times journalists refusing to publish an incredible story. 

August 30, 2019, T+41: maybe, the October debate --

August 29, 2019, T+40: sayonara -- Kirsten Gillibrand drops out of 2020 race. Then there were 20+ if Tom Steyer is still in the race.

August 28, 2019, T+39: circular firing squad update --
  • Biden: down to 28.5%; continues to slide
  • Bernie: at 17.8%; at one time as high as 24%; he will probably level out at 12%
  • Beto: 2.5% 
  • Buttigieg: 5%
  • Pocahontas: 16.1%; at 19% (Quinnipiac) and 20% (Monmouth); she is trending down despite the media's current enthusiasm; she has never polled higher than 18.5%
  • Steyer: not even on the list of 13; I assume he is sitting at 0.5%
  • Yang (give everyone a thousand-dollar-monthly-check): 2.4% 
  • more and more and more this looks like a brokered convention -- even as Biden slides, the next two -- Pocahontas and crazy Bernie aren't moving up in the polls. The Dems are looking for a diva ex machina.
August 27, 2019, T+38: NYT op-ed columnist closes his twitter account after Trump's tweets.

August 26, 2019, T+37: at least one respected poll now shows Pocahontas - Biden - crazy Bernie in a 3-way tie at 20% each (actually Pocahontas and crazy Bernie poll at 20% and Biden at 19%). Nastiest race ever. Biden will lose. He could have retired as an elder statesman. Will we soon see a first on the Drudge Report? Two rotating beacons instead of just one? This is August 26, 2019. I wouldn't be surprised to see two rotating beacons before Thanksgiving.

August 25, 2019, T+36: French president Macron surprises the G-7 by inviting the Iranians. Trump is not amused.

August 24, 2019, T+35: it used to be "collusion" all the time. Now, it's "recession" all the time.

August 23, 2019, T+34: it used to be "collusion" all the time. Now, it's "recession" all the time.

August 22, 2019, T+33: it used to be "collusion" all the time. Now, it's "recession" all the time.

August 21, 2019, T+32: new polls are out -- little change; quiet.

August 20, 2019, T+31: new polls are out --
  • Steyer moving up; needs 2% in four polls; today --- 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 (see below)
  • big story: Pocahontas -- apologizing; packing them in (700 at biggest rally); surging -- now at 15.8% -- she was at 17% just last week; peaked already? apology tour not going well?
  • Biden: oh, oh -- dropped below 30%; at 29%; he has been lower but at this point, he should be building momentum
  • Sanders: frozen at 15.4%
  • Harris: continues to drop; now down to 7.4%
  • Buttigieg: the media favorite just a few weeks ago is becoming another Beto -- 4.6% 
  • Beto: 3.4%
  • summary: this really looks like the predicted circular firing squad; the top four front-runners are actually dropping in the polls
  • the bad news: because of the low bar set by the DNC, only 2% in four polls, the podium will still remain very crowded going into the September debates; it appears there are no criteria regarding "dates" for the polls; so Steyer is likely to make it; he has the necessary 2% in three of four polls; if 10 qualify, then two nights of debates
August 19, 2019, T+30: Trump's popularity ebbs and flow. Recently his popularity has been ebbing. He had dinner with Tim Cook over the weekend. It must have gone well based on Trump's tweets. Let's see if Trump's poll numbers turn around.

August 18, 2019, T+29: Pocahontas now starting to get all the mainstream media attention. She's "surging in the polls" -- now at 17%, still well behind Biden at 30%. If Pocahontas breaks 20% going up and Biden breaks 30% going down, expect to see news articles planted by Hillary.

August 17, 2019, T+28: quiet. 

August 16, 2019, T+27: Bernie's 15 minutes of fame -- actually 15 years of fame -- is finally coming to an end. Slips behind Pocahontas. So we have the sleepy gaffe-prone plagiarist and and a faux Native American. What a great country.
  • Steyer might just make it: six polls today: 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0.
  • both ends of the spectrum (Fox News, far right; The Economist, far left): both have Pocahontas at 20%, out-polling Crazy Bernie
  • Beto: back below 3%; at 2.8%
  • Buttigieg: momentum flagged
  • with the 2% minimum in 4 polls, there would be seven on the stage based on today's numbers, but I believe the criteria is both backward and forward; if so, then probably eight, no more than 10.

August 15, 2019, T+26: wow, the newest Real Clear Politics" poll summary was just posted. Colorado's governor John Hickenlooper drops out of the race:

  • five polls, not just four as in the previous summary
  • Steyer is no longer reported
  • The Economist is truly the outlier
  • Biden: at 30% but would be one to two points higher if The Economist removed
  • Pocahontas and Crazy Bernie in a statistical tie but that's only because of The Economist; throw out The Economist, and Crazy Bernie clearly out-polls Pocahontas; Iowans apparently love the Native American
  • Harris: at 8.0, a flash in the pan
  • Beto, the "false" Hispanic, back to 3.0%; must have taken Steyer's voters
  • Buttigieg at 5.6%, down from 6.3%
August 14, 2019, T+25: meanwhile the billionaire Tom Steyer is begging for $1 contributions.

August 13, 2019, T+24: new polling update just released. Highlights of the four polls:
  • Steyer needs 2%+ in four polls; today: 0 - 0 - 1 - 1
  • Biden: slips to 30.8 (if he goes below 30, watch out); it's hard to believe but he has been lower (26% on July 5, 2019)
  • Warren (18%) now out-polling Sanders (16.8%)
  • Harris slides to 8.3%
  • Buttigieg rises to 6.3%
  • Beto: back to 2; this poll comes out after the tragedy at El Paso
August 12, 2019, T+23: just after posting the August 11, 2019, note below, The WSJ had a story above the fold about Biden's gaffes

August 11, 2019, T+22: gaffe after gaffe after gaffe and the mainstream media ignores Biden's gaffes.

August 10, 2019, T+21: how long is 27 minutes? In basketball, it's been determined that a team can get one last play in from half court with 0.4 seconds left on the clock. In 27 minutes there are 1,620 seconds. 2.5 x 1,620 = 4,050 opportunities for an NBA team to get a shot off from mid-court. Can you imagine how many shots a "domestic terrorist" can get off in 27 minutes, or 0.4 seconds? The AK-47 fires 600 rounds/minute = ten rounds/second or four rounds in 0.4 seconds?

August 9, 2019, T+20: "Big Bad Don."

August 8, 2019, T+19: depressing; Dems politicize El Paso / Dayton shootings. Economist polling over August 3 (day of shooting) through August 6: Beto did not gain; if anything may have lost a bit; at 2.0% at The Economist. Pocahontas beats "Crazy Bernie" in at least two polls.

August 7, 2019, T+18: depressing; Dems politicize El Paso  / Dayton shootings.

August 6, 2019, T+17: depressing; Dems politicize El Paso  / Dayton shootings.

August 5, 2019, T+16: depressing; Dems politicize El Paso  / Dayton shootings.

August 4, 2019, T+15: when seconds count, police an be there in minutes. Following a deadly mass shooting, this note. In this case it took six minutes to get there (we don't know what the "initial response" was; and almost a half hour -- 27 minutes -- for the rampage to end after the police arrived). Six minutes to get there, and then another 21 minutes before the shooter was neutralized:
"Thank heavens our law enforcement was prepared. It's been stated they received a call at 10:39 -- were there at 10:45, and he was apprehended at 11:06 a.m. So I think that’s masterful work from their training. But it’s tough, it's tough. I don’t think it’s going to get any easier until after we have our 20 funerals."
August 3, 2019, T+14: first polls after second debate. In big scheme of things, nothing has changed. Biden is not breaking through; still at 32%. If anything, the big change is this: Kamala Harris is fading (just the opposite of what was seen July 30th, before the 2nd debate). But at the end of the day, Biden is nowhere near the 50% plus one he needs for the nomination. In fact, the top four combined account for 72% of those polled. If all the rest drop out, the top four will split up the 28%. I don't see Biden getting much of that 28%. Bernie will pick up the socialist fringe, Pocahontas will get the "more reasonable." But Biden won't go into the convention with nearly enough to get the homination on the first vote. Michelle has again said that's "no chance" she will run. If it appears that Pocahontas has a remote chance of coming out of the convention as the nominee, Hillary will go ballistic.

August 2, 2019, T+13: quiet.

August 1, 2019, T+12: diva ex machina. Michael Moore, trial balloon, nominates Michelle Obama for president.

July 31, 2019, T+11: Going, going, gone OR Mueller Report. Mueller Lite. Mueller Gone. According to one source, the following words were not even mentioned at the debate last night: "Mueller," "report," "Russian," "collusion," either separately or as a phrase. The CNN anchors and the Democratic dwarfs running for their party's nomination have seen the polls: not only do Americans not "rank" this as an issue with which to deal," they are getting tired of hearing about it and are tuning it out, as in switching networks when "Mueller report Russian collusion" are mentioned. First night, second debate.

July 30, 2019, T+10: first of two days of second Democratic debate. I won't be watching. Snore. Mainstream media trying to inject some excitement: says Kamala Harris is rising fast; could upset Biden. In fact, Kamala trails #2 and #3 by a large margin. Still looks like a circular firing squad and a brokered convention. Could the DNC nomination convention go a day longer than scheduled?

July 29, 2019, T+9; Dems go to bat for the rats in Baltimore. LOL.

July 28, 2019, T+8: could Biden be Mueller Lite? There's already talk. With the second debate coming so soon after the Mueller meltdown, images of a frail, failing statesman will be on/in everybody's mind. Biggest charade in modern political history: Mueller writing the "Mueller report."

July 27, 2019, T+7: Nadler lies outright; media does not call him out on the lie(s). Nadler wants Federal law "suspended" so grand jury testimony can be released. US Supreme Court votes 5 - 4 in favor of President Trump's directive to the Pentagon to use DoD funds to build the wall. I'm sure opponents will find another way to top the building of the wall. US House judiciary committee should spend as much time investigating Ill-Hand Omar as they have spent investigating Russian collusion; they would have more to show for their efforts.

July 26, 2019, T+6: the Mueller hearings were a network ratings bust. My hunch: viewership picked up at Drudge reported that Mueller was a bumbling idiot. Folks were tuning in to see just how bad Mueller was as a "witness" for the Democrats. Remember, Mueller had testified before Congress more than 60 times in his life; testifying before Congress for him should have been as easy as taking a drink of water. 

July 25, 2019, T+5: unless Nadler, mainstream media can pull a rabbit out of a hat, this impeachment talk is over; Pelosi is winner; she does not want impeachment vote; Mueller is huge loser -- he sullied his reputation; people had not heard him speak before; amazed how incredibly awful he was and this was after weeks of preparation; Rush Limbaugh, huge winner. Trump, magnanimous in his post-Mueller statement. Nadler, "pencil-neck" would be the big losers but they were already big losers.

July 24, 2019, T+4: Mueller. Sharp as a blunt pencil. Early Alzheimer's? At least he's staying awake. Now we know why he had his chief of staff sit next to him. Not the sharpest knife in the drawer. One French Fry short of a Happy Meal. Playing with a 51-card deck? And this was the guy that was investigating Trump. And this is the guy that colluded with Dems for past two months (or longer?).

July 23, 2019, T+3: quiet before the storm.

July 22, 2019, T+2: budget deal. 

July 21, 2019, T+1: Sunday morning talk shows. Sounds like "Nadler" already has his Q & A script completed for Mueller later this week.

115th US Congress
Second 100 Days
Days 151 - 200

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- July 23, 2019

See this note from late last evening. I said I can't wait to see the market today.

So, what are futures doing?
  • Dow: up 104 points
  • S&P 500: up 11 points
  • NASDAQ: up 34 points
  • KO: up 3.3%; great guidance
  • UTX: up nearly 3%; "earning crushed forecasts" -- this was forecast just a week ago or so
  • EW: will report after close today; CEO sold sizable chunk of shares 13 days ago
  • Lockheed Martin: raises guidance on strong second quarter; beats estimates;
Comment: going into earnings season the buzz was that earnings were going to be awful; that 2Q19 earnings were going to be very, very painful. And now we get this headline:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what  you read here or what you think you may have read  here.

ISO New England.  

ISONY.  Wind today is contributing exactly 0.1% of the electricity demand. And this is after decades of pushing renewable energy, and with only twelve years (Occasional-Cortex); ten years (Beto); or, eighteen months (future King Charles of England) before we're toast.

Can You Keep A Secret? -- July 23, 2019 -- Nothing About The Bakken -- The Media Page

Hmmmm! If this is accurate, it speaks volumes about the ability of the White House to "turn on a dime," to coin a phrase. A baggie of fentanyl is generally about 1/10th of a gram. The individual of interest was caught with 1,500 grams, which would yield about 15,000 doses on the street. Wholesale fentanyl runs about $6,000/kg; retail Fentanyl runs about $1.6 million/kg. Source. Obviously, prices vary considerably. New Hampshire has been particularly hard hit by opioid abuse, apparently #1 among US states for fentanyl-related deaths. 
I posted that note late last night after it "broke."

This is what I find most interesting about that story. Washington can keep a secret. LOL.

I guess this happened about two weeks ago. VP Pence was on his way to New Hampshire for some political event. Either before taking off or en route he was hastily called back, no explanation given, but the White House said "we" would be told the reason for the change in plans in a couple of weeks.

Then the story went "cold." Not one thing was written. I don't recall any speculation.

For two weeks we heard nothing. Then, yesterday, "we" were told that VP Pence was called back because he might end up in the middle of some federal opioid investigation.

It's hard to believe that "everyone" in Washington was able to keep this secret for two weeks.

A snarky comment: the media really doesn't care about the comings and goings of VP Pence and this was a non-story from the beginning.

By thew way, speaking of "turning on a dime," Trump is apparently stepping it up:
  • there are reports that a Trump rule change will cut "ineligible" recipients from the "food stamp program"; a little confusing; are they currently "ineligible" or will the rule change make them "ineligible"? Big difference.
  • there are reports that Trump will enforce a 1996 law giving ICE authority to quickly deport illegal aliens who cannot prove they've been in the country for two years; the law was originally established to allow authorities to quickly turn back illegal aliens found wandering along the southern border, but it was never enforced by Bush II or his successor
For a White House of control, it certainly seems to be doing very, very well. Even, apparently, shepherding a two-extension of the US debt limit; it's been a long time since I recall seeing a two-extension (on anything).

By the way, I haven't seen any story about a "disorganized" White House since all the military general officers left. LOL. 
Okay, enough of this.

Back to the  important stuff.

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- July 23, 2019

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, July 23, 2019: 40 for the month; 40  for the quarter;
  • 35177, SI/NC, MRO, State Elias 34-36TFH, Killdeer, no production data, 
  • 35164, SI/NC, Hunt, Halliday 146-92-19-18H-3, Werner, no production data,
Active rigs:

Active Rigs5666583270

RBN Energy: western Canada's natural gas production is nearing all-time highs, part 2.
Once consigned to a flat or declining profile, natural gas production in Western Canada has been increasing steadily since 2012, to the extent that it has now begun to stretch the ability of the existing pipeline network to the breaking point. Most striking is that this expansion in production has been taking place in an era of declining natural gas prices and weakening basis for Western Canada’s primary natural price marker, AECO, and rising and relentless competition from U.S. gas supplies in several of Canada’s key domestic and export markets. If the pricing, pipe egress and export situation has become so dire, why are producers still drilling for and pumping out even more natural gas? Today, we address this question in the second part of our series investigating Western Canada’s natural gas supply and demand balance.
Growing natural gas supplies from Western Canada have been depressing the AECO gas price and widening AECO’s discounts versus the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub (i.e. basis). Although the decline in the absolute AECO price has been part of a broader downturn in natural gas prices across North America, driven by rapidly rising U.S. gas supplies, it is the weakening of AECO basis (the local price relative to the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub) that suggests that the Western Canada gas market is facing additional challenges in the form of being oversupplied and/or under-piped. In the series opener (Part 1), we considered that big-picture trend — rising production in Western Canada and what has become a situation of insufficient export capacity in getting all that gas to market. We’ve also explored some of these issues previously having discussed additional operational issues on TC Energy’s Alberta pipeline system that may be contributing to weaker pricing and the widening basis outcomes for AECO. We’ll update our analysis on infrastructure constraints as well as local demand trends later in this series. First, today, we dive deeper into the production trends that have led the market to this point and their effects on prices.