Daily Note

Polling: Real Clear Politics

 
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115th  US Congress

Third 100 Days

September 8, 2019, T+50: Pocahontas talking with Hillary? Let's see how this plays out. 

September 7, 2019, T+49: there's a reason he's called "crazy." And yet nearly 20% of Democrats polled/responded want Bernie to be their party's presidential nominee. Biden is getting just as crazy, saying we can't get ICE vehicles off the road fast enough.

September 6, 2019, T+48: running against Trump won't win the election. Ask Kamala Harris. Link here. 

September 5, 2019, T+47: it seems to me that polls are coming out more frequently. Where are we today, most recent poll through September 3 --

• bloody-eyed Biden: up to 30.4%; a reversal of sorts; not statistically significant, but a turn, nonetheless
• Pocahontas surging: that's the word mainstream media is peddling. What's the number? At 17.1% a significant move -- has broken the 17% threshhold -- in the previous poll, crazy Bernie was also at 17.1%
• Bernie: at 16.3% and now clearly in third place behind Pocahontas
• Kamala: won't recover; continues to slide; now at 6.6%
• Buttigieg: unchanged at 4.6%
• Yang (give everyone a grand/month): from 2.5% to 2.6%
• Steyer: not on the stage
• Beto: from 2.4% to 2.1% 
• Current prediction:
• DNC Convention, first vote: Biden: 35%; Pocahontas: 30%; Bernie: 15%
• DNC Convention, second vote: Biden: 45%; Pocahontas: 35%; Bernie: 16%

September 4, 2019, T+46: quiet.

September 3, 2019, T+45: circular firing squad update --

• Biden: down to 28.9%; flat, no change;
• Bernie: at 17.1%; at one time as high as 24%; he will probably level out at 12%
• Beto: 2.4% 
• Buttigieg: 4.6%
• Pocahontas: 16.5%; at 19% (Quinnipiac) and 20% (Monmouth); she is trending down despite the media's current enthusiasm; she has never polled higher than 18.5%
• Kamala: 7.0%
• Steyer: not even on the list of 13; I assume he is sitting at 0.5%
• Yang (give everyone a thousand-dollar-monthly-check): 2.5% 
• more and more and more this looks like a brokered convention -- even as Biden levels out, the next two -- Pocahontas and crazy Bernie aren't moving up in the polls. The Dems are looking for a diva ex machina.

September 2, 2019, T+44: quiet.


September 1, 2019, T+43: "Hillary lingers on edge of 2020 race." -- The American Mirror.  Diva ex machina.

August 31, 2019, T+42: wow, this is amazing. It is obvious that FoxNews is outfoxing The New York Times regarding the Comey story. New York Times journalists refusing to publish an incredible story. 

August 30, 2019, T+41: maybe, the October debate --

August 29, 2019, T+40: sayonara -- Kirsten Gillibrand drops out of 2020 race. Then there were 20+ if Tom Steyer is still in the race.

August 28, 2019, T+39: circular firing squad update --

• Biden: down to 28.5%; continues to slide
• Bernie: at 17.8%; at one time as high as 24%; he will probably level out at 12%
• Beto: 2.5% 
• Buttigieg: 5%
• Pocahontas: 16.1%; at 19% (Quinnipiac) and 20% (Monmouth); she is trending down despite the media's current enthusiasm; she has never polled higher than 18.5%
• Steyer: not even on the list of 13; I assume he is sitting at 0.5%
• Yang (give everyone a thousand-dollar-monthly-check): 2.4% 
• more and more and more this looks like a brokered convention -- even as Biden slides, the next two -- Pocahontas and crazy Bernie aren't moving up in the polls. The Dems are looking for a diva ex machina.

August 27, 2019, T+38: NYT op-ed columnist closes his twitter account after Trump's tweets.


August 26, 2019, T+37: at least one respected poll now shows Pocahontas - Biden - crazy Bernie in a 3-way tie at 20% each (actually Pocahontas and crazy Bernie poll at 20% and Biden at 19%). Nastiest race ever. Biden will lose. He could have retired as an elder statesman. Will we soon see a first on the Drudge Report? Two rotating beacons instead of just one? This is August 26, 2019. I wouldn't be surprised to see two rotating beacons before Thanksgiving.

August 25, 2019, T+36: French president Macron surprises the G-7 by inviting the Iranians. Trump is not amused.

August 24, 2019, T+35: it used to be "collusion" all the time. Now, it's "recession" all the time.

August 23, 2019, T+34: it used to be "collusion" all the time. Now, it's "recession" all the time.

August 22, 2019, T+33: it used to be "collusion" all the time. Now, it's "recession" all the time.

August 21, 2019, T+32: new polls are out -- little change; quiet.

August 20, 2019, T+31: new polls are out --

• Steyer moving up; needs 2% in four polls; today --- 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 (see below)
• big story: Pocahontas -- apologizing; packing them in (700 at biggest rally); surging -- now at 15.8% -- she was at 17% just last week; peaked already? apology tour not going well?
• Biden: oh, oh -- dropped below 30%; at 29%; he has been lower but at this point, he should be building momentum
• Sanders: frozen at 15.4%
• Harris: continues to drop; now down to 7.4%
• Buttigieg: the media favorite just a few weeks ago is becoming another Beto -- 4.6% 
• Beto: 3.4%
• summary: this really looks like the predicted circular firing squad; the top four front-runners are actually dropping in the polls
• the bad news: because of the low bar set by the DNC, only 2% in four polls, the podium will still remain very crowded going into the September debates; it appears there are no criteria regarding "dates" for the polls; so Steyer is likely to make it; he has the necessary 2% in three of four polls; if 10 qualify, then two nights of debates

August 19, 2019, T+30: Trump's popularity ebbs and flow. Recently his popularity has been ebbing. He had dinner with Tim Cook over the weekend. It must have gone well based on Trump's tweets. Let's see if Trump's poll numbers turn around.

August 18, 2019, T+29: Pocahontas now starting to get all the mainstream media attention. She's "surging in the polls" -- now at 17%, still well behind Biden at 30%. If Pocahontas breaks 20% going up and Biden breaks 30% going down, expect to see news articles planted by Hillary.

August 17, 2019, T+28: quiet. 

August 16, 2019, T+27: Bernie's 15 minutes of fame -- actually 15 years of fame -- is finally coming to an end. Slips behind Pocahontas. So we have the sleepy gaffe-prone plagiarist and and a faux Native American. What a great country.

• Steyer might just make it: six polls today: 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 0 - 0.
• both ends of the spectrum (Fox News, far right; The Economist, far left): both have Pocahontas at 20%, out-polling Crazy Bernie
• Beto: back below 3%; at 2.8%
• Buttigieg: momentum flagged
• with the 2% minimum in 4 polls, there would be seven on the stage based on today's numbers, but I believe the criteria is both backward and forward; if so, then probably eight, no more than 10.

August 15, 2019, T+26: wow, the newest Real Clear Politics" poll summary was just posted. Colorado's governor John Hickenlooper drops out of the race:

Observations:

• five polls, not just four as in the previous summary
• Steyer is no longer reported
• The Economist is truly the outlier
• Biden: at 30% but would be one to two points higher if The Economist removed
• Pocahontas and Crazy Bernie in a statistical tie but that's only because of The Economist; throw out The Economist, and Crazy Bernie clearly out-polls Pocahontas; Iowans apparently love the Native American
• Harris: at 8.0, a flash in the pan
• Beto, the "false" Hispanic, back to 3.0%; must have taken Steyer's voters
• Buttigieg at 5.6%, down from 6.3%

August 14, 2019, T+25: meanwhile the billionaire Tom Steyer is begging for $1 contributions.

August 13, 2019, T+24: new polling update just released. Highlights of the four polls:

• Steyer needs 2%+ in four polls; today: 0 - 0 - 1 - 1
• Biden: slips to 30.8 (if he goes below 30, watch out); it's hard to believe but he has been lower (26% on July 5, 2019)
• Warren (18%) now out-polling Sanders (16.8%)
• Harris slides to 8.3%
• Buttigieg rises to 6.3%
• Beto: back to 2; this poll comes out after the tragedy at El Paso

August 12, 2019, T+23: just after posting the August 11, 2019, note below, The WSJ had a story above the fold about Biden's gaffes. 

August 11, 2019, T+22: gaffe after gaffe after gaffe and the mainstream media ignores Biden's gaffes.

August 10, 2019, T+21: how long is 27 minutes? In basketball, it's been determined that a team can get one last play in from half court with 0.4 seconds left on the clock. In 27 minutes there are 1,620 seconds. 2.5 x 1,620 = 4,050 opportunities for an NBA team to get a shot off from mid-court. Can you imagine how many shots a "domestic terrorist" can get off in 27 minutes, or 0.4 seconds? The AK-47 fires 600 rounds/minute = ten rounds/second or four rounds in 0.4 seconds?

August 9, 2019, T+20: "Big Bad Don."

August 8, 2019, T+19: depressing; Dems politicize El Paso / Dayton shootings. Economist polling over August 3 (day of shooting) through August 6: Beto did not gain; if anything may have lost a bit; at 2.0% at The Economist. Pocahontas beats "Crazy Bernie" in at least two polls.

August 7, 2019, T+18: depressing; Dems politicize El Paso  / Dayton shootings.

August 6, 2019, T+17: depressing; Dems politicize El Paso  / Dayton shootings.

August 5, 2019, T+16: depressing; Dems politicize El Paso  / Dayton shootings.

August 4, 2019, T+15: when seconds count, police an be there in minutes. Following a deadly mass shooting, this note. In this case it took six minutes to get there (we don't know what the "initial response" was; and almost a half hour -- 27 minutes -- for the rampage to end after the police arrived). Six minutes to get there, and then another 21 minutes before the shooter was neutralized:

"Thank heavens our law enforcement was prepared. It's been stated they received a call at 10:39 -- were there at 10:45, and he was apprehended at 11:06 a.m. So I think that’s masterful work from their training. But it’s tough, it's tough. I don’t think it’s going to get any easier until after we have our 20 funerals."

August 3, 2019, T+14: first polls after second debate. In big scheme of things, nothing has changed. Biden is not breaking through; still at 32%. If anything, the big change is this: Kamala Harris is fading (just the opposite of what was seen July 30th, before the 2nd debate). But at the end of the day, Biden is nowhere near the 50% plus one he needs for the nomination. In fact, the top four combined account for 72% of those polled. If all the rest drop out, the top four will split up the 28%. I don't see Biden getting much of that 28%. Bernie will pick up the socialist fringe, Pocahontas will get the "more reasonable." But Biden won't go into the convention with nearly enough to get the homination on the first vote. Michelle has again said that's "no chance" she will run. If it appears that Pocahontas has a remote chance of coming out of the convention as the nominee, Hillary will go ballistic.

August 2, 2019, T+13: quiet.

August 1, 2019, T+12: diva ex machina. Michael Moore, trial balloon, nominates Michelle Obama for president.

July 31, 2019, T+11: Going, going, gone OR Mueller Report. Mueller Lite. Mueller Gone. According to one source, the following words were not even mentioned at the debate last night: "Mueller," "report," "Russian," "collusion," either separately or as a phrase. The CNN anchors and the Democratic dwarfs running for their party's nomination have seen the polls: not only do Americans not "rank" this as an issue with which to deal," they are getting tired of hearing about it and are tuning it out, as in switching networks when "Mueller report Russian collusion" are mentioned. First night, second debate.

July 30, 2019, T+10: first of two days of second Democratic debate. I won't be watching. Snore. Mainstream media trying to inject some excitement: says Kamala Harris is rising fast; could upset Biden. In fact, Kamala trails #2 and #3 by a large margin. Still looks like a circular firing squad and a brokered convention. Could the DNC nomination convention go a day longer than scheduled?

July 29, 2019, T+9; Dems go to bat for the rats in Baltimore. LOL.

July 28, 2019, T+8: could Biden be Mueller Lite? There's already talk. With the second debate coming so soon after the Mueller meltdown, images of a frail, failing statesman will be on/in everybody's mind. Biggest charade in modern political history: Mueller writing the "Mueller report."

July 27, 2019, T+7: Nadler lies outright; media does not call him out on the lie(s). Nadler wants Federal law "suspended" so grand jury testimony can be released. US Supreme Court votes 5 - 4 in favor of President Trump's directive to the Pentagon to use DoD funds to build the wall. I'm sure opponents will find another way to top the building of the wall. US House judiciary committee should spend as much time investigating Ill-Hand Omar as they have spent investigating Russian collusion; they would have more to show for their efforts.

July 26, 2019, T+6: the Mueller hearings were a network ratings bust. My hunch: viewership picked up at Drudge reported that Mueller was a bumbling idiot. Folks were tuning in to see just how bad Mueller was as a "witness" for the Democrats. Remember, Mueller had testified before Congress more than 60 times in his life; testifying before Congress for him should have been as easy as taking a drink of water. 

July 25, 2019, T+5: unless Nadler, mainstream media can pull a rabbit out of a hat, this impeachment talk is over; Pelosi is winner; she does not want impeachment vote; Mueller is huge loser -- he sullied his reputation; people had not heard him speak before; amazed how incredibly awful he was and this was after weeks of preparation; Rush Limbaugh, huge winner. Trump, magnanimous in his post-Mueller statement. Nadler, "pencil-neck" would be the big losers but they were already big losers.

July 24, 2019, T+4: Mueller. Sharp as a blunt pencil. Early Alzheimer's? At least he's staying awake. Now we know why he had his chief of staff sit next to him. Not the sharpest knife in the drawer. One French Fry short of a Happy Meal. Playing with a 51-card deck? And this was the guy that was investigating Trump. And this is the guy that colluded with Dems for past two months (or longer?).

July 23, 2019, T+3: quiet before the storm.

July 22, 2019, T+2: budget deal. 

July 21, 2019, T+1: Sunday morning talk shows. Sounds like "Nadler" already has his Q & A script completed for Mueller later this week.

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115th US Congress

Second 100 Days

Days 151 - 200

Link here.