Saturday, June 13, 2015

Real GDP Ranking: North Dakota Ranks #1 In 2014; The Other Surprise Is #3

Memo for Jane Nielson and Gregor McDonald: click on this link.
  1. After more than doubling from 2007 to 2010, annual oil production in the Peace Garden State more than doubled again in the two-year period from 2010 to 2012 (from 113 million to 243 million barrels), and the state was producing more than 10% of all US crude oil by 2012. North Dakota was producing so much shale oil in the Bakken, that it surpassed both Alaska and California to become the nation’s second-largest oil-producing state in 2012, behind only Texas. Also by 2012, the energy-driven stimulus to the state’s economy moved North Dakota to the No. 2 spot in the country for per-capita real GDP at $64,150 behind only Alaska at $70,437, and 33% above the national average of $48,264.
  2. In 2013, North Dakota’s real GDP per capita fell by 2%, and its ranking fell to No. 4 among US states for real GDP per capita at $62,750. But last year, North Dakota led the country with the largest increase in real state GDP (6.3%), and the state’s real GDP per capita rebounded to $65,225 setting a new state record, and moved the Peace Garden State back up to the No. 2 ranking among the country’s states for per-capita output, just behind No.1 Alaska at $66,160.
In all fairness, I think Gregor McDonald is looking at the Bakken from a peak oil perspective, and we both probably agree that we are being set up for $200 oil. On the other hand, Jane is a) incredibly deficient when it comes to her understanding of North Dakota and the Bakken; and, b) she is a good example of someone with significant blind spots as I've pointed out before. 
******************************************
Oil Still Tops ND Economy

The Dickinson Press is reporting:
Oil remained king in North Dakota as the largest economic sector and the engine that powered the state’s impressive growth last year despite a drop in petroleum prices.
The mining sector, dominated by oil and gas extraction, contributed $9 billion toward the state’s $55 billion economy last year, as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ gauge of the state’s gross domestic product.
North Dakota’s economy grew 8 percent from 2013 to 2014 — 6.3 percent when adjusted for inflation — topping the state growth rate for the sixth year in a row. That was a bit cooler than the 9.7 percent growth rate for 2013.
Data at Bureau of Economic Analysis.  

Screenshot (the table was too large to capture in one screenshot, but the important part of the table was captured):

 
***************************
North Dakota, #1; Texas, #2; Wyoming, #4 -- Which State Was #3 For GDP Growth In 2014?

This is quite remarkable. I grew up thinking this was a poor Appalachian coal state. But it was ranked #3 behind North Dakota and Texas in GDP growth in 2014. Some data points:
  • the net corporate income tax rate is 8.5%, scheduled for reduction to 6.5% by 2014, while business costs are 13% below the national average
  • the state is a global chemical hub
  • the state has one of the nation's highest concentrations of biotech industries
  • a national energy hub, leading the nation in net interstate electricity exports and underground coal mine production
  • a growing renewable energy portfolio
  • the largest coal producer east of the Mississippi River
  • home to several hydroelectric facilities
  • major aerospace employers are located in the state
The state? West Virginia.
The state is a global hub for chemicals, a national hub for biotech industries and a leader in energy, while having a diverse economy in aerospace, automotive, healthcare and education, metals and steels, media and telecommunications, manufacturing, hospitality, biometrics, forestry, and tourism.
West Virginia's economy accelerated in 2014 with a growth rate of 5.1%, ranking third among the fastest growing states in the United States alongside Wyoming and just behind North Dakota and Texas.

Reason #4,534 Why I Love To Blog -- June 13, 2015

I think one of the most interesting stories to follow for the next two years will be OPEC oil production. Well, duh.

I keep going back to the graph at this post. I keep repeating the same data points, and adding some:
  • Saudi embarked on a $35 billion, 5-year program back in 2012 to sustain oil production
  • Saudi's oil production has hardly moved since 2012
  • Saudi's budget is based on $100 oil
  • domestic consumption of oil and natural gas is increasing in Saudi Arabia
  • apparently the Saudi quest to find natural gas in Rub al Khali failed; one of many links; a better link;
  • Saudi Arabia is embarking on a huge refinery program (see below)
  • the water situation in the Mideast is getting more and more challenging, and the amount of energy needed for desalination is beyond one's imagination (see below)
  • Saudi has a huge new terrorist organization to worry about
  • Saudi is engaged in a fairly expensive shooting war
  • President Obama has made it very clear that Saudi is on their own when it comes to security
  • the Saudi oil minister is making some bizarre statements about the end of fossil fuel (bizarre or disingenuous)
Saudi Arabia's huge refining program, The Wall Street Journal reported this earlier this year (2015):
Saudi Arabia plans to become the world’s second-largest exporter of refined oil products in 2017 as part of its drive to diversify its economy and increase its share of the global crude and petroleum products markets, the kingdom’s oil minister Ali al-Naimi said Wednesday.
The kingdom’s two new refineries will add 800,000 barrels a day in refining capacity this year. A planned 400,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery in Jazan will bring Saudi Arabia’s refining capacity to more than 3 million barrels a day.
“That will make the kingdom one of the five largest countries in the world in terms of refined crude capacity and the second largest exporter of refined products after the U.S.,” Mr. al-Naimi said.
And even more:
Last year, Saudi Aramco started output at one of the largest oil refineries built in recent years—a 400,000-barrel-a-day project in a joint venture with Total SA. Another 400,000 barrels a day plant in Yanbu, a joint venture with China’s Sinopec called Yasref, started trial runs in September and exported its first shipment in January.
Saudi Aramco has previously said it plans to increase its refining capacity to 8 million barrels a day in the next decade through expansion both at home and abroad.
To some extent, this is a "wash." Countries currently importing Saudi crude oil may switch to importing Saudi petroleum products instead.

Saudi Arabia's domestic energy consumption and desalination: several links --
If Saudi Arabia's oil reserves were inexhaustible, their desalination program would not be an issue. But apparently, Saudi Arabia has concerns.

The kingdom is now embarking on a huge solar-powered desalination project. It will be the world's first large scale solar powered desalination plant.

Just a few weeks ago, on May 22, 2015, The Guardian had a big story on Saudi Arabia turning to solar energy for its desalination program, and then even made the crazy assertion that someday Saudi's solar energy industry would "export" electricity.

This is where the minister of energy sounded a bit bizarre:
“In Saudi Arabia, we recognise that eventually, one of these days, we’re not going to need fossil fuels,” said Naimi at a business and climate conference in Paris on Thursday.
“I don’t know when - 2040, 2050 or thereafter. So we have embarked on a program to develop solar energy,” he said in comments reported by the Guardian, Bloomberg, and the Financial Times. “Hopefully, one of these days, instead of exporting fossil fuels, we will be exporting gigawatts of electric power.”
Naimi also said he did not think that continuing low crude oil prices would make solar power uneconomic: “I believe solar will be even more economic than fossil fuels.”
Be that as it may; it is what it is. It's bizarre but it may be telling.

However, what caught my eye was this, buried deep in the article, why I wrote that this is reason #4,534 why I love to blog:
Saudi Arabia had already said in 2012 it aimed to be powered by 100% renewable energy and later that year announced a $109 billion solar plan. In January, that plan was delayed by eight years
Their solar program wasn't just delayed a year or two or three or four, it was delayed eight years. Anyone who has spent any time living and/or working in the Mideast knows that a) it took a lot for Saudi to admit this 8-year delay ("losing face"); and, b) "eight years" was simply a figure pulled out of thin air. It's as likely that it will be an 18-year delay.

Ever since I began following the Bakken, it's been my understanding that Saudi Arabia's budget is based on $100 oil. Most of that budget, based on conjecture and what little I know, was before these huge big projects and challenges came along.

These are big ticket items that will not do well on $50 Saudi oil:
  • fighting the war in Yemen
  • fighting ISIS
  • preparing to fight Iran
  • if Saudi decides to go nuclear (and I think they will) that's another huge financial outlay;
  • 1.5 million bopd ($100 million/day on the open market worth of oil) to run its desalination programs; that's about $40 billion /year just for potable water (not agricultural water)
  • $35 billion, 5-year program to sustain current oil production; it's not so much the dollar cost; it's the fact it takes so much of their only resource (oil) to run the plants
  • a $109 billion solar plan (now delayed); there's only one reason to delay, I would imagine: cash flow
  • aggressive, expansive refining program
  • a Bentley for each Saudi pilot striking Yemen: 100 Bentleys
That was a long note for just a single point, but it provides a starting point for the archives with regard to big-ticket items that Saudi Arabia needs to pay for and why their crude oil production needs to increase to meet their new refinery requirements. One almost gets the feeling that if Saudi increases their production from 10.3 million bopd to 11.3 million bopd they are simply running faster to stay in the same place.

By the way, solar is not all it's cracked up to be (a future post on this will be forthcoming; I can hardly wait).

EOG SOP For Shutting In Neighboring Wells When Fracking New Wells -- June 13, 2015

EOG has a long note on a sundry form regarding its "downspacing and infill drilling program" in the file report for this well, explaining an SOP for shutting in neighboring wells when fracking new wells:
  • 16532, 1,285, EOG, N&D 1-05H, Parshall, t7/07; cum 457K 4/15;
The sundry form was dated August 14, 2014.

The NDIC GIS map server appears to be off-line at the moment. When it is back up, if I remember, I will post a screenshot of the activity around this particular well.

Random Update Of MRO's Gertrude Tuhy Well -- June 13, 2015

I noted this well on the MRO-likely-to-be-refracked wells to have been taking off-line in early January, 2014; it is still listed as "IA" but it appears to be back on-line. No sundry form in the files to suggest if it has been refracked; still being followed:
  • 19375, IA/308, MRO, Gertrude Tuhy 34-24H, Chimney Butte, Bakken, 14 stages; 2 million lbs; t3/11; cum 38K 4/15; last production of any note 1/14; update: six days of production in April, 2015;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20156292730038231543
BAKKEN3-20150000000
BAKKEN2-20150000000
BAKKEN1-20150000000
BAKKEN12-20140000000
BAKKEN11-20140000000
BAKKEN10-20140000000
BAKKEN9-20140000000
BAKKEN8-20140000000
BAKKEN7-2014001300000
BAKKEN6-20141130001400
BAKKEN5-20140000000
BAKKEN4-20140000000
BAKKEN3-20140000000
BAKKEN2-2014361233130905021
BAKKEN1-2014319639311348101670027
BAKKEN12-201327690707106865442788
BAKKEN11-201330777699130670644086
BAKKEN10-201331820934126378154649
BAKKEN9-201330782666119881562514
BAKKEN8-201331852926106084262651
BAKKEN7-201331859687129288767133
BAKKEN6-201330869934129690669828
BAKKEN5-201331937893140595071154
BAKKEN4-2013309571136140894872543
BAKKEN3-201331110010961624108285248
BAKKEN2-2013238528711346771540101
BAKKEN1-201331926919133691869141
BAKKEN12-2012311086902138997975835
BAKKEN11-201230877889111582861533
BAKKEN10-201231867895113184562435
BAKKEN9-201230902877111492870147
BAKKEN8-20123197511241144864566112
BAKKEN7-201230955887107794872252
BAKKEN6-201230114211241217118093862
BAKKEN5-201231114513421212102578653
BAKKEN4-2012261392134718031170666349
BAKKEN3-20122685767230360348492
BAKKEN2-2012204344531023718742
BAKKEN1-201219119913439031038567375
BAKKEN12-20113078367466030513193
BAKKEN11-201122889898702583451105
BAKKEN10-201119837942560537299190
BAKKEN9-2011199321120299979624295
BAKKEN8-201117160511095841233105289
BAKKEN7-20111255766149241727383
BAKKEN6-20113015241770106013931054162
BAKKEN5-2011282116217219451883165368
BAKKEN4-2011292796270321862352214929
BAKKEN3-201113214717969981708160330

Random Note On Two Whiting Smith Federal Wells -- June 13, 205

I track Whiting's Smith Federal wells here, but this update might interest a reader or two. These two wells are still confidential but look at the production profiles to date, especially #28056:
  • 28055, 1,754, Whiting, Smith Federal 41-13PH, Park, s10/10; t5/15; cum 15K 1/16;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20163195179550152713762137000
BAKKEN12-2015311049610507174314520144590
BAKKEN11-2015301173011687326817290172300
BAKKEN10-201531142831430343862236722011294
BAKKEN9-2015301637216418412724578245190
BAKKEN8-2015271782218138376724543244920
BAKKEN7-201531249622464259993066130332267
BAKKEN6-201530245212490681462809327617416
BAKKEN5-201517647060834051783565991210
BAKKEN4-2015134838483520165838579226
BAKKEN3-2015261499514868946117672152732348

  • 28056, conf, Whiting, Smith Federal 44-12PH, Park, s10/14; producing, 17K first month, 3/15:

    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN1-2016311240112404215526402263400
    BAKKEN12-2015311427414359239828991289300
    BAKKEN11-2015301664416542273428921288610
    BAKKEN10-201531199802003733663389033393436
    BAKKEN9-2015271927119519319228855288030
    BAKKEN8-2015312512925044331134333342710
    BAKKEN7-201531302843057638243996339752149
    BAKKEN6-201530257592578827783001129208743
    BAKKEN5-2015312283522969264024426229791387
    BAKKEN4-2015292962329659938531648274594133
    BAKKEN3-20152417567167961349117586137883754

Random Update On A Hess Kvam Well -- June 13, 2015

Updates

November 16, 2015: the well is back on line --
  • 17141, 520, Hess, BL-Kvam-156-95-1819H-1, Beaver Lodge, t7/08; cum 248K 9/15; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20153014831484428193119310
BAKKEN8-201531158515605451311310
BAKKEN7-201531173717474011531530
BAKKEN6-201530195419583642032030
BAKKEN5-201519200419493508578570
BAKKEN4-20150000000

Original Post
 
A reader asked whether there were any indications of pad drilling coming to this well in the near future:
  • 17141, IA/520, Hess, BL-Kvam-156-95-1819H-1, Beaver Lodge, t7/08; cum 239K 4/15;
Interestingly enough, this well went off line in March, 2015:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20150000000
BAKKEN3-20152603423000
BAKKEN2-2015231057107320721181180
BAKKEN1-201529156115601611811810
BAKKEN12-201429178017842711771770
BAKKEN11-201430174817443293653650

There appear to be no operational reasons (no new wells in the area being drilled or fracked) for this well to have been taken off-line.

Whatever Happened To All Those Stories About The US Running Out Of Crude Oil Storage? -- June 13, 2015

Earlier this year there were many, many stories that the US would run out of crude oil storage by May, 2015. There were suggestions it could happen as soon as April, 2015. Then in April, "they" found new storage capacity. LOL.

Here it is June, and I haven't seen any recent articles on shortages in US crude oil storage -- amazing how fast free market capitalism can respond to these things.

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 Fracking
Tea Leaves Are Swirling

Rigzone is reporting:
On a more promising note, Flemming said some of HII’s smaller oilfield customers have indicated that they would resume fracking schedules as soon as the end of July or August of 2015.
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NOAA Fakes Images

Rigzone also noted that story posted earlier about NOAA fudging satellite images showing flaring in North Dakota.
Using new processing methods and subpixel techniques, researchers at the University of North Dakota (UND) shined new light on whether photos portraying the North Dakota night sky as bright as major U.S. cities were accurate.
UND researchers decided to investigate how satellite photos taken of the North Dakota sky – which shows lights as bright as major U.S. East Coast cities – were processed after seeing inadequate explanations given for how the images were derived. 
It's a long article; it will be archived.

*************************
Problems At Statoil
More Off-Shore Production Coming Off-Line

This has been talked about before; problems for Statoil. Now this article from Rigzone:
Around 2,200 oil and gas sector jobs could be lost in Norway by 2016 at Statoil and Aker Solutions. Statoil could potentially make 2,000 job cuts by the end of 2016.
Discussions between Statoil’s management and representatives from unions were held on Thursday and it is believed that a decision will be finalized in the near future. The cuts would form part of Statoil’s technical efficiency program announced in February, which aimed to reduce the company’s annual cost by $1.7 billion.
The news follows Aker Solutions’ announcement late Thursday that between 150 and 200 positions could be affected at the oilfield services company’s subsea services facility in Ã…gotnes, Norway, as it adjusts the plant’s workforce capacity due to a decline in activity in the Norwegian market.
I could be wrong, but it's my feeling that off-short projects don't stop and start "on a dime." I still see risk in "someone" setting us up for $200 oil.

By the way, when I say "$200 oil," I don't mean literally $200 oil. Rather, I am suggesting that there is a risk that the price of oil will surge unexpectedly in 2017 (and possibly as early as 2016) with pundits/talking heads suggesting we could see $200 oil. Whatever the price of oil is in 2017, I don't think Saudi Arabia plans on giving away their oil for $50 / bbl "forever."

**********************
Meandering Maureen

Dowd in The New York Times:
President Obama has vowed to degrade, destroy and defeat ISIS, but it seems more like delay, so it won’t look as though he lost Iraq on his watch. He’s putting a bandage on the virulent gash, sending American advisers to work with Iraqi troops and tribesmen in “lily pad” bases near the front lines.
It appears to be a sad, symbolic move by a country and president fed up with endless war and at wit’s end about how to combat the most murderous terrorists on the face of the earth. If we drowned in quicksand going full-bore for a dozen years beside Iraqi soldiers who did not want to fight, what good will 450 more American trainers do?
A lame duck sending sitting ducks to lily pads is not a pretty sight.
I wish I had said that.  This Maureen Down piece is very meandering, but it hits every hot button.

***************************
The Los Angeles Times
Side-by-Side

If you can't access the link, google key phrase: California's commercial drone industry is taking off.  

Side-by-side with: Boeing auctions off equipment as it closes C-17 plant in Long Beach.
Once there were so many workers building military cargo jets at Boeing's sprawling plant in Long Beach that employees put flags on their cars to find them in the vast parking lot.
Now the parking lot is nearly empty. There are no "going out of business" signs posted out front, but this month the company is holding its first auction of the plant's mammoth equipment.
The 25-acre factory that assembled 279 of the workhorse C-17 air haulers is being disassembled.
Workers are putting the final touches on the last eight planes, but already four of the five manufacturing bays sit nearly silent.
By the way, the graph above is similar to the same graph showing the number of folks attending Hillary Clinton events.

The Red Queen Is Still On The Treadmill; She Has Not Fallen Off; 1,582 Wells In North Dakota Off-Line -- June 13, 2015

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

The April data is posted at this link: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/mpr/2015_04.pdf. 

I will be watching for the Director's Cut on Monday, but the important production and flaring information has been released.

The Bismarck Tribune is reporting data from April, 2015, for the Bakken:
  • March, 2015, crude oil production: 1,190,502 bopd
  • April, 2015, crude oil produciton: 1,168,636 bopd
The April production will be revised up (slightly) in the final data which will be released a month from now. The "preliminary" data and the "final" data are generally quite close.

Delta:
  • 1,190-502 - 1,168,636 = 21,866 bopd
  • 21,866 / 1,168,636 = 1.87% decrease month-over-month
Let the comments begin. Yours, not mine. Some more data first.

What the article failed to mention was the number of active rigs:
  • April 30, 2014: 187
  • March 31, 2015: 99
  • April 30, 2015: 86
Let the comments begin. Yours, not mine. Some more data first.

Natural gas flaring
  • as a percentage, declined statewide in April, to 18%
  • previous two months (February, March): 19%
  • as a percentage, 18% is the lowest since the summer of 2010
  • July, 2010: 321,042 bopd (all-time record at that time)
  • July, 2010, rig count: 135
  • Unless I missed it, the percent of flaring was not even mentioned in the Director's Cut regarding the July, 2010, data.  
  • Comment: look at that -- flaring today, in 2015, as a percentage, is less than that in 2010; in 2010, crude oil production was barely 300,000 bopd; today, with choking back, crude oil production in North Dakota is well over 1 million bopd
The Director also noted that as of yesterday, the active drilling rig count was 76, the lowest count since 2009.  

Producing wells:
  • March, 2015: 12,443
  • April, 2015: 12,537
Wells capable of producing in April, 2015: 14,119
  • 1,582 wells capable of producing were off-line 
  • this number is probably immaterial; a look at three other months suggests this is a typical percentage 
Comments:
  • in 2012, Saudi Arabia announced a $35-billion 5-year plan to increase number of active rigs to sustain production; most recent data available shows the Saudis have minimally increased crude oil production since 2012
  • in 2010, the active rig count in North Dakota was 135, and daily production was 300,000 bopd in North Dakota
  • in 2015, the active rig count in North Dakota was 76 (almost half that of 2010), and daily production was significantly above 1 million bopd
  • the 1.87% decrease month-over-month is trivial; this is within the normal variation once one gets to "manufacturing phase" (of course, with maximum production, the Bakken could easily be in the 2 million bopd); we have seen significantly greater decreases in month-over-month production (as much as 5%) during the winter
  • while Saudi Arabia was maximizing production from each new and each older well, the Bakken operators were cutting back on production from new wells and old wells due to the slump in oil prices
  • production in the Bakken is being cut back by several methods: a) fewer days on-line; b) choking back when wells are on-line; c) delaying fracking (SI/NC)
  • while Saudi Arabia was maximizing production from each new and each older well, the Bakken operators were cutting back on production from new wells and old wells to meet new flaring rules
  • while Saudi Arabia was maximizing production from each new and each older well, the Bakken operators were impacted by constrained takeaway capacity, crude oil storage issues, "wrong" type of refineries along the Gulf Coast, new conditioning rules, weather, roads, an anti-oil atmosphere at the Federal level, significant delays in new pipelines (Keystone XL, Sandpiper)
The Saudi story is even more interesting: most recent data available shows the Saudis have minimally increased crude oil production since 2012; during this same period, Saudi Arabia announced new refineries in their own country to refine their own oil to sell refined products to Europe (this is a new venture for Saudi Arabia and necessitates increased production for their own refineries. In addition, the amount of domestic requirements for Saudi Arabia have increased.

From Seeking Alpha:
  • North Dakota oil production fell 1.8%, or nearly 22K bbl/day, in April to ~1.17M bbl/day after recording a surprising jump in March, as weak crude prices led producers to ease production.
  • The number of drilling rigs operating in North Dakota stands at 76, the lowest since December 2009, according to the latest monthly report from the state's Department of Mineral Resources.
  • The agency director has said he expects the state’s oil production to remain at 1.1M-1.2M bbl/day until oil prices recover.
  • April natural gas production was up slightly at 1.54B cf/day from 1.51B cf/day in March.
  • Unimpressed commentator Gregor McDonald tweets: "Sorry America, but 9,525 wells in the North Dakota Bakken producing on average 116 bbl/day is more cartoon than triumph."
I don't know if this is the same Gregor McDonald, but if it is, it sounds like he, too, missed the Bakken, has his own spin, and has a very different world view than I do. I find it somewhat incredible that of "all the stuff out there," Seeking Alpha chose to post that meaningless tweet. But it is what it is. The wells pay for themselves in 6 months in the best Bakken; two years in the worst Bakken when prices are optimal; and the Bakken will produce at a minimum 35 billion bbls of oil through 2100; compared with 7 billion bbls from the North Slope.

So, what is the most interesting data point that was not in The Bismarck Tribune article? Answer: I will let you think about it. There is a hint above. I will post the answer later. Maybe Sunday.

Update: Sunday, June 14, 2015 -- well, this is pretty cool. I posted the answer to the question back on June 8, 2015

Update On White Butte Oil (Slawson) Stacked Dual Laterals In The Antelope Oil Field, Southwest Of New Town -- June 13, 2015

Note: in a long post like this, with data brought from earlier posts, there is a high degree of risk for factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Updates

November 4, 2017: Panzer 1-20MLH, #21385, is back on line (according to FracFocus, this well was fracked in 3/15; and 9/16, but no later data for a re-frack):

Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-201719329132711956482904378
SANISH8-20170000000
SANISH7-20170000000
SANISH6-201723001904
SANISH5-201744844754487140644
SANISH4-20170000000
SANISH3-20170000000
SANISH2-201718118213701030164501555
SANISH1-20171413101130943188701817


Reminder to self: in addition to the three Panzer wells, White Butte has two Meerkat wells. 

April 15, 2017: #21387, Panzer 4-20MLH; another frack, stimulated 9/25/16 -- Three Forks; 22 stages; 2.6 million lbs; the sundry form dated 12/06/16 says that "this is a dual lateral. Currently, only the second lateral (SW Three Forks lateral) has been fractured and is producing. A revised completion report will be submitted once the second lateral is fractured."


Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-20173087788748597712466011372
SANISH8-201721442340144376631505736
SANISH7-20170000000
SANISH6-201723258127884183372803331
SANISH5-201711221018612148313302843
SANISH4-2017714322034713202201987
SANISH3-2017307135737640851002009870
SANISH2-2017281188311423734216725016585
SANISH1-201716620862904826874708667
SANISH12-201620511851614317711807018
SANISH11-20162982778152806711677011532
SANISH10-201621634562686719910408999
SANISH9-20161126001840179
SANISH8-20161360069064
SANISH7-201613001550155
SANISH6-20160000000
SANISH5-20160000000
SANISH4-20160000000
SANISH3-20160000000
SANISH2-20160000000
SANISH1-20160000000
SANISH12-20150000000
SANISH11-20150000000
SANISH10-20150000000
SANISH9-20150000000
SANISH8-20150000000
SANISH7-2015411941434728171901699
SANISH6-2015301622016310748223503023353
SANISH5-20151996769152486713963013868
SANISH4-20151030372918708431704267

April 15, 2017: #21386, Panzer 2-20MLH; the story is identical to #21387. Production profile for past 12 months only:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH2-2017281253012750631118255018115
SANISH1-201716681061504116997909899
SANISH12-201614482751983484698506915
SANISH11-20162777057377699411320011185
SANISH10-201617460044023387685506770
SANISH9-20160000000
SANISH8-20160000000
SANISH7-2016006290101
SANISH6-201615312326341459470404629
SANISH5-201619364735541325547305378
SANISH4-20160000000
SANISH3-20160000000


April 15, 2017: #21385, Panzer 1-20MLH; the story is identical but the production not particularly notable; Production profile for past 12 months only:

Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-201719329132711956482904378
SANISH8-20170000000
SANISH7-20170000000
SANISH6-201723001904
SANISH5-201744844754487140644
SANISH4-20170000000
SANISH3-20170000000
SANISH2-201718118213701030164501555
SANISH1-20171413101130943188701817
SANISH12-201642882347414250405
SANISH11-20161870958035454310709010619
SANISH10-20162186858311954112824012719
SANISH9-20161439006450640
SANISH8-20160000000
SANISH7-20160000202
SANISH6-20167696414208105101016
SANISH5-201622581657591179862808518
SANISH4-20161839864590981587705787
SANISH3-201631681062251536987309718


***********************************************

February 4, 2016: in the note below, I noted that the Panzer wells/permits were the only three permits for White Butte; today I noted that White Butte has five permits. To the three Panzer wells noted below, add these two:
  • 18123, 1,112, White Butte, Meerkat 1-12H, Big Bend, t8/09; cum 274K 12/16;
  • 18124, 670, White Butte, Meerkat 1-7H, Big Bend, t8/09; cum 223K 12/16;
  • according to a sundry form these two wells were transferred to White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, from Slawson Exploration, letter dated December 2, 2015.
  • #18123 a simple single lateral
  • however, #18124, December 24, 2013: a request to re-enter the original well and drill a second lateral; API: 33-061-01038; FrackFocus shows a single frack, 4/17-18/2014 (this is most likely the frack of the second lateral)

February 4, 2016: frack data -- the frack data is now available for all six horizontal laterals from the  three Panzer wells.
21385
first lateral: 3/11/15 -- 20 stages; 2.5 million lbs; middle Bakken
second lateral: 9/26/16 -- 20 stages, 2.9 million lbs; Three Forks 

21386
first lateral: 3/06/15 -- 32 stages; 2 million lbs, middle Bakken
second lateral: 9/22/16 --20 stages; 2.7 million lbs; Three Forks
21387
first lateral: 3/09/15 -- 20 stages; 2.8 million lbs; Three Forks B1 (no typo)
second lateral: 9/26/16 -- 22 stages, 2.6 million lbs; Three Forks (no typo)

This screen shot says this is diagram for #21385, but it was with the file report for #21387. This schematic is in both the #21385 and the #21387 file report:




October 6, 2015: These are still the only three White Butte permits/wells (October 6, 2015):
  • 21385, 2,221, White Butte, Panzer 1-20MLH, Antelope field, Sanish pool (Three Forks), 320-acre spacing; dual stacked laterals, t4/15; cum 128K 9/17;
  • 21386, 1,905, White Butte, Panzer 2-20MLH, Antelope field, Sanish pool (Three Forks), 320-acre spacing; dual stacked laterals, t4/15; cum 153K 9/17;
  • 21387, 2,502, White Butte, Panzer 4-20MLH, Antelope field, Sanish pool (Three Forks), 320-acre spacing; dual stacked laterals, t4/15; cum 95K 9/17; off line almost all of 7/15; no production 8/15; 
There is no explanation in the file report why #21387 is off-line; there are no wells in the area that are being fracked or drilled.


September 20, 2015:

  • 21387, 2,502, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC/Slawson, Panzer 4-20MLH, t4/14; cum 95K 9/17;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH7-2015411941434728171901699
SANISH6-2015301622016310748223503023353
SANISH5-20151996769152486713963013868
SANISH4-20151030372918708431704267
  • 21385, 2,221, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC/Slawson, Panzer 1-20MLH, t4/15; cum 35K 7/15;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH7-2015231016510148294515360015245
SANISH6-2015302062120420753829895029745
SANISH5-2015191144311202495317005016910
SANISH4-2015930512749702446704422
  • 21386, 1,905, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 2-20MLH, Antelope oil field, Sanish Pool, 320 acre-spacing, t4/15; cum 63K 7/15; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH7-201513665670872279993309868
SANISH6-2015302032120246776730465030315
SANISH5-2015291949419744865129116028971
SANISH4-2015211641215672728724400024295

Original Post

This well has posted its IP.
  • 21386, 1,905, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 2-20MLH, Antelope oil field, Sanish Pool, 320 acre-spacing, t4/15; cum 16K 4/15;
Production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH4-2015211641215672728724400024295

Instead of re-writing everything, I'm simply going to cut and paste earlier postings regarding this well.


First, May 5, 2015:
The White Butte Oil Panzer wells were originally Slawson permits, 320-acre spacing units; approved back in late August, 2011; in early 2014, Slawson requested that the permit be amended to allow for an additional lateral and to rename #21385, Panzer 1-20MLH. On October 10, 2013, the the three Panzer wells were transferred to White Butte from Slawson.

The narrative for the 1-20MLH is not yet available (unless I missed it).

The 2-20MLH is described as a single section dual-lateral consisting of two 4,504' - 5,234' long laterals drilled to the south. The first lateral accessing the second bench of the Three Forks was completed on November 11, 2014; while the second lateral that penetrated the middle Bakken was completed November 27, 2014. 

The second curve was landed at 10,972 feet into the middle Bakken, after drilling the Three Forks lateral and then coming back and milling a window in the casing of the vertical hole. 

While drilling the dual-lateral well, the initial curve was landed into the deepest of the two targeted intervals.

Panzer 4-20MLH is a single-section, dual-lateral accessing the first bench of the Three Forks; it appears the second lateral was also in the first bench of the Three Forks

I believe these are the only three White Butte Oil Operations wells in North Dakota at this time.  

White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, is a North Dakota Foreign Limited-Liability Company which filed on June 4, 2014. The Registered Agent for this company is located in Bismarck, ND; the company's principal address is in Wichita, KS. Its address is 727 N Waco Ave Ste 400, Wichita, KS.

Slawson Exploration has an address at 727 N. Waco Ste 400, Wichita, KS 67203. 
Second, from April 1, 2015:
.... the well is located on a 3-well pad approximately 12 miles southwest of New Town, North Dakota...
... consisting of two 4,504 - 5,234' long laterals drilled to the south; the first later accessing the TF 2 was completed November 11, 2014; the second lateral penetrated the Middle Bakken was completed November 27, 2014; the second curve was landed at 10,972 feet into the Middle Bakken, after drilling the Three Forks lateral and then coming back and milling a window in the casing of the vertical hole; the initial curve was landed into the deepest of the two targeted intervals; very little background gas (20 - 50 units) were noted in the first half of the first lateral; lack of permeability and porosity suggested that a strong response to hydraulic fracturing will be needed to unlock the TF 2. Despite the low levels of drilling gas, other wells from the area drawing from the Sanish pool have performed admirably. The ideal target zone (Middle Bakken) was defined as a 20-foot interval; background gas much higher at 1,000 to 1,500 units; even averaging 2,500 units during connections. Summary: the Panzer 2-20MLH was the first of 3 wellheads with 6 total lateral objectives to be compled on the panzer pad, with the cmoplete dual-lateral well reaching completion onf November 27, 2014. The TF2 appears to be less promising than the middle Bakken in this area. The spacing unit is 320 acres; this was originally a Slawson permit; this permit has been renewed at least three times; original Slawson permit was dated 9/1/11.
Completion data:
  • Lateral 1: TD = 15,486; OH interval from 10,948 feet (top) to 15,409 feet (bottom); KOP, 10,196 feet
  • Lateral 2: TD = 15,265, OH interval from 10,635 feet (top) to 15,183 feet (bottom); KOP, 10,072 feet
Lateral 2: 32 stages; 2 million lbs sand, middle Bakken lateral, 3/6/15;

Schemiatic:


A few things to note:
  • the frack data for lateral 1, the Three Forks 2nd bench was not in the file as of June 13, 2015
  • the production profile says this comes from the Sanish Pool, though the second lateral is definitely the Middle Bakken; I associate "Sanish" with Three Forks
  • the production profile shows only one formation, the "Sanish"; it will be interesting to see if production from this well is broken out by each lateral, or if combined as if "one" well
An older post regarding this 3-well pad, December 14, 2015:
  • 21385, conf, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 1-20MLH, 
  • 21386, conf, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 2-20MLH,
  • 21387, drl, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 4-20MLH, original permit for a Three Forks well but name change suggesting a middle Bakken well; in January, 2014, along with the name change (from TF to middle Bakken), Slawson also requested a revision "to allow for an additional lateral, would submit a revised plan for a single lateral plan"; in July, 2014, the thee Panzer wells were transferred to White Butte Oil from Slawson; the business address for Slawson and White Butte were identical, 1675 Broadway, Suite 1600, Denver, CO.; and that connects the last dot.
Also, from that link, note: In the original post on the Antelope Field, I wrote:
Antelope Field is an irregularly-shaped rectangular field, almost entirely within the reservation, on the east end of the northeast McKenzie County sweet spot in the Bakken. It is about two townships in size. It is of interest due to the fact that EOG plans to place 6 wells on a 320-acre spacing unit in this field.

It is interesting how things work out: in this immediate area, there are only three sections with 320-acre spacing: section 32-152-94; section 17-151-94; and section 20-15-94. When you expand the NDIC GIS map, you can find a few more such spacing units in: section 16-152-94; section 24-151-92; section 20-152-93, and you have to expand to almost the entire map to see additional such units: 320-acre drilling units in the Bakken are few and far between. It looks like most of them are inside the reservation. This puts things into perspective.

Graphics at many of the linked posts; I won't re-post them here.