LNG Suppliers Having Difficulty Keeping Up With Export Demand Despite High Prices -- Source -- August 13, 2021

Link here.

JKM: Japan-Korea-Marker. Running at $15 now; will trend toward $20 by end of year.

Meanwhile, LNG Rotterdam:

• last autumn: $2.86
• recent: $12.51

And, Henry Hub: $3.84

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Has Died At The Age Of 68

Nanci Griffith.

Link here. 

Natural Gas Continues To Be The Surprise Story Of 2021 -- August 4, 2021

Link here. The only graph(s) not at the link:

• number of miles of pipeline stopped by faux environmentalists;
• number of coal plants shut down by same;
• number of nuclear plants shut down;

Natural Gas Could Well Be The Energy Story Of 2018-2019 -- September 29, 2018

Re-posting from earlier today, since "natural gas could well be the energy story of the year."

US natural gas:

• fill rate well below 5-year average and the gap is not closing
• New England could face natural gas shortage over next month or so
• natural gas being diverted from New England to Florida
• Florida: #1 electricity producer in US; #2, Texas
• Florida: converting from coal to natural gas

Natural gas: this might be the story of the year -- lots of buzz, lots of talk -- from SeekingAlpha yesterday --

• a severe cold spell could raise Henry Hub natural gas prices to a range of $12-$16/MMBtu, “similar to where marginal generation costs of fuel oil and diesel would be,” says Citi’s Anthony Yuen
• and if bitter cold weather hits both the U.S. and “either Europe or Asia at the same time... spot LNG [liquefied natural gas] prices could surge to $20/MMBtu at the extreme," Yuen writes; Nymex U.S. natural gas currently trades at ~$3.00/MMBtu
• Yuen thinks a spike in gas prices this winter could lift shares of gas-oriented companies such as Range Resources, Southwestern Energy, and Cabot Oil & Gas
• shares of many gas companies, while up from winter lows, are still lower YTD, reflecting concerns that there is too much new gas supply to sustain a rally in the gas market

It is being re-posted because a reader has sent me the following story:

Domestic natural gas production of about 82 billion cubic feet a day isn't nearly enough to provide for peak winter demand, which is why up to about 4 trillion cubic feet of gas is stored underground and nearly 3 trillion drawn upon during some heating seasons.

This year, though, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the starting amount at the end of next month to be around 3.3 trillion cubic feet--the lowest since 2005, when natural gas prices hit their all-time high.

A projected ending storage level much below 1 trillion cubic feet often spooks traders. A 2005-style hurricane-fueled squeeze is out of the question, but a big price spike isn't.

It was just four winters ago that a cold winter caused a 75% surge in futures prices to above $6 a million British thermal units. So far there is little sign of anxiety among traders, with both front-month and February futures below $3. Thursday's weekly inventory report and forecasts for continued builds in coming weeks were encouraging, yet storage is now 20% below year-ago levels and 18% below the five-year average. Possible tough sledding ahead.

This is not from The National Inquirer, or from some nut contributing to SeekingAlpha.

The natural gas concern is from The Wall Street Journal. 

Link here.  Or here if you have a subscription to the Journal. 

Note: natural gas out of the Permian is going for as little as 50 cents, it was reported not too long ago.

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Micro-Dosing

Re-posting: LSD. Story here. Silicon Valley (?) getting ready to do "formal"testing. We talked about this earlier this year.

Three-page essay in the current issue of The London Review of Books, by Mike Jay, in his review of two new books:

• How to Change Your Mind: The New Science of Psychedelics, Michael Pollan, May, 2018
• The Science and the Story of the Drugs That Changed Our Minds, Lauren Slater, February, 2018

My hunch: marijuana is soooo old news.

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 Notes To The Granddaughters

I have journaled all my life. I have kept calendars. I make and keep lists. I am obsessive-compulsive about these sorts of things.

I wish I had done even more. I can think of many more things I wish I had done along this line.

But it looks like I paled in comparison to Kavanaugh's journals and calendars. Wow.

I think about that often. I thought of it again when reading the "Diary" essay -- a regular feature -- in The London Review of Books. 

Will I destroy my journals before I die? I was brutally honest in them. Often I wrote when I was most depressed.

Wow, it was so much easier back then.

Somebody to Love, Jefferson Airplane

Fifteen (15) New Permits -- North Dakota, October 23, 2014; 5-Year Outlook For The Bakken

From the Bakken Magzine, the five-year outlook for the Bakken: http://thebakken.com/articles/841/the-5-year-bakken-outlook. The graphics are very user friendly: you can click on the first graphic and then scroll through the rest.

California getting more Bakken crude by barge than by rail. Bakken.com is reporting:

Shipments of Bakken crude oil from North Dakota to California by barge have quietly overtaken those by train for the first time, showing how the state’s isolated refiners are using any means necessary to tap into the nation’s shale oil boom.

While tough permitting rules and growing resistance by environmentalists have slowed efforts to build new rail terminals within California itself, a little-known barge port in Oregon has been steadily ramping up shipments to the state, a flow expected to accelerate next year.

From January through June, California received 940,500 barrels of the North Dakota crude oil from barges loaded at terminals in the Pacific Northwest, the highest rate ever.

Bakken crude transported to California on railcars, which has gained widespread attention after a series of fiery train derailments in North America, accounted for just 702,135 barrels over the same time period.

“We’re seeing marine transport of Bakken crude outpace rail for the first time,” Schrempf said. In 2013, rail shipments of 1.35 million barrels exceeded barge shipments of 1.33 million barrels. The year before, almost no crude arrived by barge.

Bakken shipments by barge and rail may only comprise a tiny portion of the crude California imports, at about 5,200 and 4,000 barrels per day respectively, with Alaska supplying over 20 times as much crude.

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Wells coming off the confidential list Friday:

• 27492, 184, Murex, Shauna Michelle 26-35H, Daneville, t7/14; cum 10K 8/14;
• 27798, drl, Hess, AN-Evenson-152-95-1003H-9, Antelope, no production data,
• 27839, drl, MRO, Bears Ghost USA 11-4TFH, McGregory Buttes, no production data,
• 27916, 362, American Eagel, George 3-1-163-102, Skjermo, t9/14; cum 5K 8/14;
• 27981, drl, Statoil, Paulson 36-1 2H, Briar Creek, no production data,

Active rigs:

	10/23/2014	10/23/2013	10/23/2013	10/23/2012	10/23/2011
Active Rigs	194	181	181	188	196

Wells coming off the confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Fifteen (15) new permits:

• Operators: Hunt (4), Enerplus (3), BR (3), Zavanna (2), QEP, HRC, CLR
• Fields: Werner (Dunn), Ross (Mountrail), Heart Butte (Dunn), Pershing (McKenzie), Stockyard Creek (Williams), Grail (McKenzie), Tyrone (Williams), Banks (McKenzie)
• Comments:

Four (4) producing wells completed:

• 27013, 200, Oasis, State 5792 31-15 4T2, Cottonwood, t8/14; cum --
• 27067, 908, Hess, EN-KMJ Uran 154-93-2734H-5, Robinson Lake, t9/14; cum --
• 28172, 955, Triangle, Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-4H, Elk, t10/14; cum --
• 28173, 836, Triangle Wahlstrom 152-102-34-27-3H, Elk, t10/14; cum -- 

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What Some Of Us Will Be Talking About Friday

The Wall Street Journal

Uh-oh. Amazon stumbles on high spending. 

Self-quarantined doctor, breaks his own quarantine, tests positive for Ebola virus. After bowling in NYC. I can't make this stuff up.

At least one indicator is moving in the right direction: activity in China's manufacturing sector rose in October. 

I didn't see this coming: Microsoft is hot again. Microsoft's sales continue to defy expectations by growing at a much fast clip than those of its business-technology peers.  

OXY profit falls 24%. Previously reported.

Caterpillar posts surprising profit gains. Previously reported.

Nucor announces 66% profit rise on energy boom. Not previously reported.

Uh-oh. Buffetts doubled down on renewables -- and wind power in particular --in his energy strategy.

KKR signaled opportunities ahead, as choppy markets create conditions that can scare off other investors. The private-equity firm said third-quarter profit fell sharply, as its cash haul from deal profits declined.

Dr Pepper tops expectations. 

Heard on the street: natural-gas bulls: better luck next year.

Cold winter isn't good enough reason to bet on higher gas prices.A bet on the winter starting in late 2015—still risky given the time horizon—could make more sense for one reason: power-plant shutdowns.

Next year will see a swath of coal-fired power plants shut down as a result of tighter environmental standards. Some 30 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity is slated to be retired or at risk of this in 2015, according to Sanford C. Bernstein. That is 60% of the amount expected to close through 2020.

Teri Viswanath of BNP Paribas points out that around 70% of the plants scheduled to close next year are in Midwest and mid-Atlantic states—precisely the regions that relied on those plants during the worst of last winter.

The scheduled start of U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas and continuing construction of export pipelines to Mexico should also add pressure on the demand side.

Does that guarantee a jump in gas prices? No. But it does increase the likelihood of seasonal swings, says Ms. Viswanath. Currently, with the futures curve pretty flat through 2016, this risk isn’t really priced in: The January 2016 contract is a mere 35 cents above the one for October 2015. With a little help from the gods, America’s shifting energy mix could offer gas bulls some delayed gratification.