Thursday, October 8, 2020

ICYMI: US Crude Oil Exports -- October 8, 2020

Re-posting: US crude oil imports, link here  

A reader who has better insight regarding the shale revolution than anyone else I "know" has this to say about that:

Although I have not kept close watch, my understanding was that US LTO (aka 'Shale Oil') was absolutely El Primo feedstock for the IMO 2020 low sulphur fuel that is produced in refineries throughout the world.

The consistency, inter-compatibility (with products purchased at different ports, worldwide) and - most crucially,  from my readings - the low asphaltene component which inhibits sludge formation in both the engines and storage tanks (onboard ships as well as at shoreside terminals). 
Ship owners do not want to gamble with problem fuels thousands of miles at sea ... or anywhete else, for that matter.
LTO: I had almost forgotten that acronym -- light, tight oil. 

Another benefit for those trading in oil: America oil -- guaranteed deliveries; trusted contracts; ease of doing business; trading efficiency; etc. All things being equal, would you rather trade with an American oil company or a Chinese national oil company, or a Russian national oil company, or Saudi Aramco.

But again, look at those numbers. It looks like a switch was turned in early 2017 and there was no looking back. 

But as a reminder, easy come, easy go. Both Biden and Harris want to ban fracking.

WHO Update On Covid-19 -- October 8, 2020

Link here.

Tyler Durden says this is a "good news" story (at the link). I disagree. It's an incredibly bad news story. But I'm tired of talking about it today -- a reader sent me a note which I parsed and spent considerable time posting -- it was hard to sort out the story -- see this link -- so I will link the article and let it go for now. Folks can read for themselves and decide whether it's a good news story or a bad news story.

From Durden's perspective, it's a "good news" story; great news.

From an economic perspective, it's a "bad news" story. 

Whether you consider it a good news story or bad news story, doesn't matter. It all depends on one's perspective.

This Should Be Interesting -- October 8, 2020

Enerplus "Heavy Metal Pad #2" -- Moccasin Creek

From today's daily activity report:

Six new permits, #37890 - #37895, inclusive:

    Operator: Enerplus
    Field: Moccasin Creek (Dunn)
        Enerplus has another "heavy metal" pad with six wells sited in SWSE 08-147-93; located from 1267' FSL to 1200' FLS and 2210' FEL to 2048' FEL: Bismuth, Cadmium, Brass, Tin, Osmium and Gallium;


Enerplus With Six New "Heavy Metal" Permits In Moccasin Creek, Dunn County -- October 8, 2020

Jobless claims, link here:

  • prior revised: up to 849K from 837K
  • forecast: 819K
  • actual: 840K

OPEC basket: $40.45

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1356645933

Six new permits, #37890 - #37895, inclusive:

  • Operator: Enerplus
  • Field: Moccasin Creek (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • Enerplus has another "heavy metal" pad with six wells sited in SWSE 08-147-93; located from 1267' FSL to 1200' FLS and 2210' FEL to 2048' FEL: Bismuth, Cadmium, Brass, Tin, Osmium and Gallium;

Seventeen permits renewed:

  • EOG (6): s three Liberty LR permits, Mountrail County; two Austin permits, Mountrail County, and a Hardscrabble permit in Williams County
  • Equinor (3): three Tufto permits in Williams County;
  • Whiting (3): two Lapica permits and one Cvancara permit in Mountrail County;
  • Kraken (2): an Anna permit and a Wilder permit, both in Williams County;;;;
  • BR: a Mancord permit in Dunn County;
  • XTO: an Edwards Trust Federal permit in McKenzie County
  • Enerplus: a Brugh Bear permit in McKenzie County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 36697, drl/A, WPX, Pronghorn 22-15HA, Spotted Horn, t--; cum --
  • spud March 20, 2020
  • TD: May 11, 2020
  • middle Bakken
  • curve began on March 23, 2020; completed March 25, 2020
  • lateral began on May 8, 2020; TD reached May 11, 2020
  • so again, the vertical in a day or two; the curve in a couple of days (though now common to see the curve completed in less than 12 hours); and the lateral drilled in three days; so, again, we're talking drilling days about seven;

One Wonders How Fast Biden/Harris Would/Will Reverse This Metric -- The US Is A Huge Polluter, A Huge Contributor To Global Warming According To Both -- October 8, 2020

This might be the first thing Biden/Harris need to do to reverse to get Chinese off oil: ban US oil exports. 

But until they do, it's quite a story, quite a record. In just three years went from "956" to #3,267" or a 3.4x-fold jump in production. Is this a 340% jump in exports over three years. Whatever.

US crude oil imports, link here  


As Kamala herself said: you can't believe a thing I say (that was with Stephen Colbert). 

The good news: no thinking US Senator would listen to Kamala. This was pure entertainment for the unenlightened. I didn't watch the debate but I doubt her  opponent cared one way or the other was Kamala said.  Link here:

Notes From All Over; Pop Quiz At Very, Very End -- October 8, 2020

Co-opting: if your high school student ever needs to provide an example of "co-opting" this is perhaps the best example in American history. Seriously. Can anyone provide a better example? And this is not a rhetorical question. Perhaps putting the Ku Klux Klan monkey on the back of the wrong party, but that was not co-opting. Same with calling conservative states "red" and progressive states "blue" but again, that's not co-opting.

Commissioner notes huge drop in BLM ratings: "things will change next season." No link; story everywhere. It's been regularly reported for the past week on non-mainstream media outlets. BLM championship ratings plunged this year -- despite so little sports activity even competing for eyeballs.

OPEC+: how bad is it for the cartel? Even with a crippling strike in the Norwegian oilfields and operators shutting down off-shore rigs in the US Gulf, the "OPEC basket" is pretty much unchanged. OSP levels out at $40 and change. Saudi needs $80-oil to sustain "business as usual." Says it can meet obligations at $60-oil.

Amazon: I ordered two identical items at the very same time with each one going to a different destination. I ordered the items on Sunday or Monday night, I forget which. The item sent to my house here in north Texas arrived Wednesday, much more quickly than Amazon estimated. The same item going to a residential address in Portland won't arrive until tomorrow, Friday, two days later. FedEx is having major delivery delays in Portland, OR, based on anecdotal reports.

Don't know what they're talking about: headline in local Ft Worth newspaper -- "Trump returns to White House even while still infectious." Whoever wrote that has no idea. How does the writer know the president was still infectious when the latter was discharged from the hospital. An understanding of human nature suggests he would have asked his physicians that very question. Every infectious disease expert will tell you that one is most infectious during the first two to three days before viral symptoms are noted. That infectious period lasts through the first day or so of viral symptoms but how long it exists after that varies considerably but drops off quickly, much like the dreaded Bakken decline. By the time the president returned to his home he had had the disease for at least five days, and was very likely not very infectious, if at all.

Over at Schwa Nation we discuss this in a two-part series. Here we begin near the end of that series.

3. If the "cycle" phenomenon is analogous to the homeopathic process then the 2^40th cycle (trillion "dilutions" as it were, this is really, really crazy). Two things: one) at 2^40th we're talking homeopathic concentrations which "no one" really "believes" in; and, two) it just shows how few viral particles are needed (any virus) to produce symptoms. I think it's all quite amazing.

4. One can see why this is never discussed much in non-specialty media. Most of us have trouble multiplying / dividing big numbers -- using exponents (2^40) would be beyond the pale. 

AP COVID-19 data: fact-checked by Brian Williams, Rachel Madcow, and the NYT editorial board.

Really Bad Math, Brian Williams


Sophia is a "remote learner" as she is called by her school district, or a "distance learner" as described by others, but to me, she is a "streamer."  (Apologies for really bad grammar.)

"Streamer" arose from this analogy. In her school district, kids who have an aptitude for arithmetic/math, stay in their "regular" class but are "telescoped" into higher math classes, and are called "telescopers" by their peers.

Sophia, in first grade, and I are having a blast. 

We are taking Spanish together using an iPad app. She is taking piano lessons on an iPad app. She is taking math, science, music, art, writing, reading, etc., as a "streamer." 

I have never understood the phenomenon of magnets. I blame that on a really, really poor physics experience (or more appropriately, a non-experience) in high school.

This week we were told that Sophia would be studying magnetism in science. I immediately ordered an $8-magnet-education kit from Amazon and it arrived two days ago. Wow, what a blast. I finally get it. I don't understand all of it (nor do scientists who study the phenomenon) but I now understand enough to feel comfortable.

These were my notes I used with Sophia:

I did not know the red/white arrow in a compass was a magnet. I just thought it was a piece of metal that oriented itself toward the earth's magnetic north, just as non-magnetized iron filings will orient toward a bar magnet. I assume I am/was the only one that did not know that. But, again, that little floppy red/white double arrow in a compass in a magnet.

Like all magnets, it has a north pole and a south pole. Now think about this: by convention, the north-seeking end of the magnet needle is painted red. Since "opposites attract", the red end of the magnet needle would be the south "pole" of the magnet. 

According to a google search, by convention:

So, the "red" portion of a magnet, by convention, is usually "south." 

Unfortunately / ironically, the magnets in Sophia's set (made in China) has the red end of the bar magnet marked with "N" -- which would suggest it's the north pole. In fact, it's the "north-seeking end" which is the south pole.

I know that for a fact because accomplishing the exercise of dangling the bar magnet off the edge of a table (with a string), the bar magnet's red end (market north) points north. LOL. 

I also understand (but don't "get it") why some substances like paper can never be magnetized whereas other substances like iron can be magnetized. 

I also understand (but also don't "get it") why the earth is one huge bar magnet (a bar magnet shaped like a sphere). The good news: scientists don't fully understand, either, why the earth is a huge bar magnet. 

But I now understand enough about magnets to die happily. Solving another mystery. 

By the way, I often see signs on cars in the local area promoting their universities/colleges with this slogan: "Yo Soy UNT."

Sophia and I now know what that means, and it has nothing to do with soy sauce. 

Pop quiz: back to magnets. Bar magnets, by convention, are red at one end, black at the other. The little red/white arrow in a compass is a magnet. Why is the little red/white arrow in a compass red/white and not red/black like all other bar magnets?

Three Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- October 8, 2020

I'm back. Sorry for the late start. I had to take our car in for annual inspection and because I'm home alone, had to get the bike on the carrier, and then ride the bike home. Reverse the process later today.


US crude oil imports, link here

OPEC basket, link here: pretty much levels off at $40.45 despite issues in Norway, US Gulf.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1356645933

Three wells coming off confidential list -- Thursdy, October 8, 2020: 11 for the month; 11 for the quarter, 676 for the year

  • 36979, drl/A,  Kraken, Hobart 34-27 2H, Oliver, t--; cum 153K 8/20; a 34K month; a nice well;
  • 36669, drl/A,  Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-7, Tioga, t--; cum 71K 8/20;
  • 34293, loc/NC, BR, State Double Dodge 1A TFH-ULW, Dimmick Lake, no production data,

RBN Energy: Covid-19 slowing progress on LNG Canada project. Archived.

When plans for LNG Canada, a big LNG export project on the British Columbia coast, were sanctioned two years ago this month, the move came as a welcome sign that Western Canadian natural gas producers might finally be able to break their long-standing reliance on just one export customer: the U.S. Access to Asian and other overseas gas markets became a high priority, in part because U.S. demand for Canadian gas had been sagging for years as production in the Marcellus/Utica and other U.S. plays came to meet the vast majority of domestic needs. But while construction on LNG Canada has steadily advanced, there are signs that delays could be mounting. Today, we begin a two-part update on this all-important Canadian LNG export project and its accompanying Coastal GasLink pipeline.

From the early days of gas market deregulation in the 1980s, Canada enjoyed an expanding love affair with its southern neighbor in the form of growing natural gas exports. With U.S. domestic gas supplies looking to be heading toward terminal decline in the early 2000s, Western Canada’s abundant supplies and rising gas prices throughout North America appeared to be locking in a vast, profitable, and long-term gas export relationship. Also, a number of LNG import terminals were developed in the U.S. in anticipation of shipped-in gas supplies from overseas.

That all changed with the Shale Revolution, which turned the U.S. into a gas production powerhouse. Steadily expanding U.S. gas supplies over the past decade reduced the need for Canadian gas and sent Canada’s gas exports into a sort of terminal decline of their own. The share of U.S. gas demand met by Canadian supplies collapsed (on a net basis) from 10.5% (~7 Bcf/d) in 2010 to just 5.1% (~4.3 Bcf/d) through the first seven months of 2020, based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). At the same time, some of those U.S. LNG import terminals were re-purposed as export terminals  deal with the new abundance of U.S. gas supplies.

Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- Octoer 8, 2020

Economic impact of the Chinese flu pandemic, at least in the US? "Not that bad." Link here.

Speaking of elves:

I thought the small mask was a nice touch. Available on Amazon, I assume.

And speaking of Christmas:

They're Reading The Blog In South Dakota -- October 8, 2020

 On October 3, 2020, I posted this (link here):

Top story that disappeared completely: the story about the South Dakota attorney general who thought he hit a deer; returns to the scene the next day -- finds dead man in ditch -- nothing since the original report, two to three weeks ago. But we do know this: in South Dakota, hitting a deer must be reported to law enforcement; some exceptions.

Now, this, from the Argus Leader, "how long does it take to investigate a fatal crash in South Dakota?"

The answer: apparently 30 days minimum unless it involves the state's attorney general and then all bets are off.

I hope the reporter asking this question at the Argus Leader calls the SD Department of Public Safety on a daily basis.

Frame of reference: aircraft mishap investigations in the USAF were supposed to be wrapped up in 30 days. The long pole in the tent: toxicology results, and vetting of the final report by the team leader of the investigative team. Results were generally not released until final approval through "the chain of command" which could taken another couple of months, but answers to mishaps involving multiple deaths and millions of dollars in loss were generally known within a couple of weeks.

Covid-19 Testing -- October 8, 2020

Original note: To be linked to another post. I want to set the time-date stamp which apparently some folks note. LOL. 

"Answer" to reader's question posted at 3:35 a.m. I started about 1:30 a.m. on that post. 

Here is the link: