Saturday, July 25, 2020

Flashback: Price Of Oil -- CNBC -- July 25, 2020

This popped up on my calendar today.

For the archives, I posted this on my calendar twelve years ago after a talking head on CNBC said we would see $200-oil before we saw $100-oil. I wish I had kept the name of the "talking head," but it wouldn't have mattered. I may have missed it, but I don't recall ever seeing $200-oil in the last twelve years.

Pretty hilarious. I've always said that predicting the price of oil was a fool's errand.

Screenshot from my calendar:

Historical price of WTI:
  • June, 2008: $164.92
  • July, 2008: $145.42
  • Sept, 2008: $118.55
  • December, 2008: $54.68
  • February, 2016: $36.16
  • April, 2020: $18.83

A Note To The Grandchildren Regarding Covid-19 -- July 25, 2020

This, too, shall pass.

I don't recall my father ever being particularly anxious and/or nervous about anything. And he had plenty to be concerned about. He had very, very little money until after his six children had all completed college and left home. He bought into a business when he had very little money. He and  his business went through several downturns, some due to national economic downturns, some due to regional downturns, some due to local issues. But even when things must have been most bleak, I don't recall him ever being particularly concerned.

I would assume his strong Lutheran faith and the "happy genes" he inherited from his mother were responsible for his good disposition.  

I vividly remember Black Monday, October 19, 1987, when the Dow plunged 23%. I was stationed overseas at the time, and knew that Dad was heavily invested in the market at the time. That was about the only time in my life when I was that worried about Dad. When I finally reached him by phone the next day, he was in a great mood. Not only was he not worried about the market, he was hardly aware that the market had crashed. He wouldn't get the daily newspaper until later that evening, and he didn't listen to news on the radio or television at that period in his life.

However, I noted a real change about the time he turned 85 years old (in 2007) or thereabouts and certainly after he entered "his" nursing home. I never saw him so happy as he seemed when he was in his late 80's and particularly when he entered the nursing home which decades earlier he had said he would never, never, never go into a nursing home.

I recognize a lot of that in myself. More and more, "global nonsense" bothers me less and less. I find myself chuckling out loud when I think about some of this nonsense. I'm not quite where my dad was when he turned 85 years of age (I still have 15 years to go), but I feel myself coming close. I still worry about a few things, particularly when it comes to our grandchildren, but with regard to almost everything else, not much else bothers me. (That's not entirely true; there are some things that still bother me, but each day these things seem to bother me less.)

I think "we" all saw that with Ronald Reagan when he was president. I'm pretty sure Warren Buffett has been in that bubble for the past four years. He's 89 years old so that about fits what I saw in my dad when he turned 85 years old. Dad had another eleven years of bliss, dying at the age of 96. Had he had Ruth Bader Ginsburg's physician he would have lived to 100 years of age.

Bill Gates, at 64 years of age, is still too serious.

Two Americas (At Least)

From Levi's:

I assume a lot of folks picked up one of these during the #BLM / Summer Riot Sale in June.

On the other hand, this was probably not a big item of interest:

I did find this one at the local Lego store.

Again, two Americas.

A Lost Year -- July 25, 2020

Those most adversely affected by Covid-19:
  • children, ages 4 to 18;
  • elderly and those with "underlying conditions" ("pre-existing conditions"?)
  • mom-and-pop restaurants;
  • airlines;
  • services industries associated with travel;
Least affected:
  • landscape services in Texas.
For investors, it's one year.

But for investors, this is nothing compared to the two lost decades under Bush II and Barack Obama. In fact, the NASDAQ hit an all-time high this past week.

Fake Endorsements

This has been going on for quite some time but I've not seen it mentioned before.

Television advertisers using "actors" that have voices that sound like very famous folks: examples, "actors" that sound like Barack Obama and Gwen Ifill. This is just the opposite of "real" celebrities doing voice-overs.

Without question, the best such example is not only a voice-over, but a very, very clever video. Geico's "Wedding Getaway" is a parody of the most famous royal couple no longer a royal couple: Prince Harry and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.

The actor portraying Prince Harry even has the beard. This was a very, very clever commercial. 

The Bakken Is Back -- The EIA Dashboards -- July 25, 2020

See this post.

EIA dashboards:
Yeah, this is what a V-shaped recovery looks like:

The Bakken Is Back -- The EIA Dashboards -- July 25, 2020

EIA dashboards:
Superficially the graphs all look very, very similar but look closely.

Note: my commentary may be incorrect, there may be typographical and/or content errors, but the graphics speak for themselves.

Some observations:

Monthly additions from one average rig. bopd, month-over-month:
  • the Bakken+762; from 1,385 bopd in July to an unprecedented 2,147 bopd in August
    • rigs at all-time low; new-well oil production per rig at all-time high
    • previous high: 1490
    • new high: 2,147
    • percent increase over old record: a 44% increase
  • the Eagle Ford:  +627; from 1,789 bopd in July to an unprecedented 2,416 bopd in August
    • rigs at all-time low; new-well oil production per rig at all-time high
    • previous high: 1995
    • new high: 2,416
    • percent increase over old record: a 21% increase
  • the Permian:  +140; from 824 bopd in July to 964 bopd in August
    • rigs tie previous record low; new-well oil production per rig at all-time high, but not much increase compared to the Bakken or the Eagle Ford;
    • previous high: 805
    • new high: 964
    • percent increase over old record: slightly less than a 20% increase
Monthly additions from one average rig, natural gas, month-over-month:
  • the Bakken: +1266; from 2304 mcfpd in July to 3570 mcfpd in August
    • rigs at all-time low; new-well natural gas production per rig at all-time high
    • previous high: 2800
    • new high: 3570
    • percent increase over old record: a 28% increase;
  • the Eagle Ford:  +2164; from 6,184 mcfpd in July to 8,348 mcfpd in August
    • rigs at all-time low; natural gas production surges; new well production surges; legacy well production surges;
    • previous high: 6000
    • new high: 8348
    • percent increase over old record: a 39% increase,
  • the Permian:  +243; from 1624 mcfpd in July to 1867 mcfpd in August
    • natural gas production has shown almost no recovery, month-over-month;
    • previous high: 1300
    • new high: 1867
    • percent increase over old record: a 44% increase since 2016; 
The graphics:

Some time ago, I asked the question, which basin would recover the quickest? I think it's obvious, based on the charts.

Dr Faustus -- 2020

From Power Line:
Or Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde?

Texas Heat -- 2020

From PowerLine:

ND Sets Another Record -- July 25, 2020

From Geoff Simon's top ND stories, and from NDLTAP Truck Weight Expert:
In March, 2020, the Stark County Highway Department authorized LoadPass Permits to issue permits to Mammoet USA South Inc. for two loads, each weighing nearly 1.5 million pounds.

The approved routes authorized travel for three miles on county and township roads. The loads were reactors being hauled to the Marathon refinery west of Dickinson. Two self-propelled modular trailers with 56 axles and 224 tires were used to haul each reactor from the railhead to the refinery. Remote controls were used to steer the trailers. Not only were these loads excessively overweight, they were also very over dimensional. Permits were issued for up to 26’3” in width, 24’ in height and 210’4” in length.  

Just one of the loads weighed the same as nineteen 80,000-pound tractor trailers. That many 18-wheelers lined up on a highway would create a train of vehicles 1,425 feet long – more than a quarter of a mile! The process to find a route for these loads was not any easy task.  

Janet Sanford, Operator for the LoadPass Permit Program, said Mammoet contacted her more than a year ago. The first requested route was denied. Al Heiser, Stark County Road Superintendent, worked with the company on a route that was better designed to accommodate the large loads. A major challenge with the route was that it crossed a two-span, 141-foot-long bridge. Marathon Oil hired an engineering firm and worked with the county and NDDOT Bridge Division to analyze the bridge to assess its capacity to withstand the load. In the end, three bridge analyses were done before the movements were approved by the county and permits could be issued. 

“The Largest GVW I have ever seen by far,” Sanford said. “It was exciting and scary. I was pleased that everything went well.”

Looks like 28 axles at this photo. Amazon Prime free delivery?


Jeff Bezos?

Week 30: July 19, 2020 -- July 25, 2020

Top story of the week:
The week's best graphic:
Most under-reported stories all week:
Most under-reported energy story:
Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:
Top ND non-energy story:
Top ND energy story:
Geoff Simon's top ND stories:
  • North Dakota's biggest load ever;  
  • Construction underway on  I-94; two bridge interchanges involved;
  • Several stories regarding DAPL shut down;
  • Hess to delay routine maintenance due to Covid-19 risk;
  • Williams County looks at $20 million in cuts y/y for 2021 budget year;
Natural gas:
Bakken economy: