Friday, September 23, 2016

Blog Hits 9 Million Page Views -- September 23, 2016

Sometime in the last 24 hours, probably early Thursday morning, September 22, 2016, the blog hit a page view count of 9 million page views.

During the boom, the blog was getting about 6,000 hits/day. The number of hits has dropped way off and was around 2,600 when I last checked, some months ago.

Page count moments ago: 9,002,667.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential Status; To Be Reported Monday; Most Likely All Three Will Be DUCs -- September 23, 2016

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend to be reported Monday:

Monday, September 26, 2016:
  • 32280, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21C, Heart Butte, no production data,
Sunday, September 25, 2016:
  • 31361, SI/NC, Statoil, Topaz 20-17 8TFH, Banks, no production data,
  • 32171, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Dolezal 146-97-31D-30-2H, Little Knife, no production data,
Saturday, September 24, 2016:
  • None. 

Update On The Bakken -- Lynn Helms -- September 23, 2016

There may be factual and typographical errors on this page. Some of this is my own opinion. If this information is important to you, to go the source. 

Do not rely on the MillionDollarWay blog for accurate information about the Bakken. The website's author is inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. 

Data points from The Williston Herald and a radio interview, September 23, 2016:
  • North Dakota production will likely dip below 1 million bopd but not below 900,000 bopd
  • wells continue to get better and better
  • Bakken is 94% oil (important fact to remember when comparing the Bakken with the Permian and the Eagle Ford)
  • if IPs used to average 1,100, now they are averaging 1,500
  • at the beginning of the boom, Bakken wells were estimated to continue producing for 30 years; now it is estimated that Bakken wells will produce for 35 years
  • Bakken wells EURs have increased 25%
  • 8,000 to 8,500 wells drilled using old technology might be good refrack candidates
  • high point for the Bakken: 2023
    • based on $50 to $60 oil
    • 65,000 wells
    • peak rig count of 150
    • in a slow year (current year, for example), "we" won't reach 2,500 wells drilled/year
    • in one scenario, those additional wells won't be drilled until 2035, but with a spike in oil prices, they could be drilled in 2017
  • forecasting important: it affects issues such as crew camps
  • oil in the $50 to $60 range: 900 DUCs highly economical
  • frack crews now average in the range of five to eleven (5 - 11)
  • at peak prices, there were 50 frack crews operating in the Bakken
  • at $60 oil, the Bakken is superior to the Permian and the Eagle Ford
  • today's rigs average 25 wells/year vs 8 or 9 wells in 2009
  • multi-well pads, new bit technology, new motor technology, new mud technology
  • recently an operator drilled a 3-mile lateral with one bit and one motor (previously reported at the blog); typically, an operator would require three bits/well
  • Lynn Helms does not sound optimistic about the DAPL
A reminder: tight oil plays in the US -- EIA -- annual energy outlook (2016) -- out to 2040: graphic here.

Air Park East Of Williston

Red Mike golf course east of Williston; air park moving along. Opportunity for individuals to build homes next to runway for private airplanes. Approval to close a section line road to the lake was approved. There are two access points to the lake in the immediate area: one access point one mile to the east, and one access point one mile west.

A Note For The Granddaughters 

For a great book on "Helen of Troy" this may be one of the best: Helen of Troy: The Story Behind the Most Beautiful Woman in the World, Bettany Hughes, c. 2005.

Six pages of maps.

Timeline: 7 pages

Dramatis Personae, Greek gods, family trees: 3 pages

Text: 343 pages

Notes: 67 pages

Bibliography: 5 pages

Other works: 25 pages

Index: 14 pages

Update On Bakken CBR And Why DAPL Is Not Needed -- RBN Energy -- September 23, 2016

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3369193187185

RBN Energy: an update on Bakken CBR and why the DAPL doesn't matter.
For the first time since the start of the crude-by-rail (CBR) boom a few years ago, just as much crude oil is being transported by rail to PADD 5—that is, to states in the western U.S.—as to the Eastern Seaboard states in PADD 1. This primarily reflects the facts that 1) CBR deliveries from the Williston Basin/Bakken to PADD 1 continue to plummet and 2) refineries in the West remain reliable buyers of railed-in crude from the Bakken and Western Canada. Will CBR shipments to the East Coast continue to fall, or have we seen the worst of the decline? Today we take a look at recent trends in crude movements by tank car, and a look ahead.
As we’ve discussed often in the RBN blogosphere, the volumes of U.S. and Western Canadian crude oil moving out of production areas in tank cars via railroads rose sharply in 2011-12, maintained high levels through 2013-14, and declined through most of 2015 and year-to-date 2016. There are a number of reasons for both the rise and fall of crude-by-rail (CBR).
The rise was spurred in large part by the lack of sufficient pipeline infrastructure, primarily out of the Williston Basin/Bakken, and to some extent in the Permian Basin, the Denver-Julesburg and other tight-oil and shale plays where crude production was soaring. Building rail-loading terminals represented a logical, near-term fix—they could be constructed quickly and at relatively modest cost (filling a transportation-capacity gap until pipelines were developed), and using the rails gave shippers destination flexibility (allowing oil to be moved to wherever the netbacks were highest).
Railed shipments of crude within the U.S. averaged only 55 Mb/d in 2010 and 121 Mb/d in 2011, but rose to an average of 394 Mb/d in 2012, 709 Mb/d in 2013, and 867 Mb/d in 2014 before falling back to 754 Mb/d in 2015.  U.S. CBR averaged only 439 Mb/d (on average) in the first six months of 2016 and had declined to only 363 Mb/d by June 2016.
Saudi Arabia Blinks

Saudis offer oil cut for OPEC deal if Iran freezes output. Political theater. Won't amount to a hill of beans.

Former OPEC president optimistic there will be deal in Algiers -- Bloomberg. Why would we want things to change. I think Americans like $2.00 gasoline and they also like to see Saudi struggling. But just the fact that "folks are talking" tells me how badly Saudi is being affected.

Rigzone: production freeze never likely to happen. If so, Saudi apparently doesn't mind giving away their only asset for $50/bbl.

Kingdom comedown: falling oil prices shock Saudi middle class -- WSJ. Let them eat cake.
To boost state finances, Saudi Arabia cut fuel, electricity and water subsidies in December, after posting a record budget deficit last year. It also plans to cut the amount of money it spends on public wages and raise more nonoil revenue by introducing taxes.
But in response to these moves, inflation more than doubled from last year to about 4% now, crimping consumers even more.
The government doesn’t have much choice. Saudi Arabia’s real growth in gross domestic product slowed to 1.5% in the first quarter from the year-earlier period, according to its statistics office, and Capital Economics says data suggest it may have contracted by more than 2% in the second quarter. Much of that slowdown is related to consumer-facing sectors, which have struggled since the start of 2016 as rising inflation has eroded household incomes.
The political stakes for managing this slowdown are high. Saudi Arabia survived the Arab Spring unrest that toppled several autocratic leaders across the region and forced some others to change, largely by offering cash handouts and more government jobs to placate its people. About two thirds of Saudi workers are employed by government related entities.
The Apple Page

Yahoo says 500 million accounts were hacked back in 2014. Remember all the grief Apple got with regard to its cybersecurity -- the FBI wanting Apple's system access during the San Bernardino terrorism story?

Apple says it is stepping up plans for an Amazon Echo-style device. Looks like Apple is again playing catch-up. Amazon is very, very impressive.


Harvard MBAs? Harvard Endowment reports a loss.

Samsung rushed to replace batteries: complaints arise over replacement batteries for Samsung Galaxy Note 7 -- overheating and quickly losing batter power.

Petrobras will sell 90% of its natural gas pipeline unit to Brookfield Asset Management.

Clinton wants estate tax increased. Any surprise here? Proposes top rate of 65% for death tax.

The Market

Open: Dow 30 down 21 points at the open. 

Futures: down about 30 points. WTI about $46. At the bottom of the sweet spot.

Yesterday's close: up 98 points, to 18,392. Ah, yes, Bob Pisani: the real reason for the rally yesterday. LOL. It's all about the Fed. Another non-story. See graphic at this post.