Sunday, November 24, 2024

Anticipation -- 6:00 P.M. CST, Sunday Evening, November 24, 2024

Locator: 44414INVESTING. 

This week:


Pre-market:

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Least Expensive Turkey Dinner In Entire History -- 39 Years -- Of Doing This Annual Survey -- Inflation Watch -- November 24, 2024

Locator: 44413INFLATIONWATCH. 

NFL: another incredible KC Chiefs game. They win with a 3-point field goal with two seconds left on the clock.

Turkey: this doesn't make sense. For years I've been told unrestrained government spending and the US debt is the reason for our inflation. And here we are: this is the least expensive Thanksgiving meal in the 39-year history of the AFBF Thanksgiving survey.

Americans can have a feast for less than $6 / person. BYOB.

Link here. From the linked article:

You may not know it by looking at sticker prices in grocery aisles, but Thanksgiving dinner is more affordable than it has been in years.

The costs of this year’s holiday feast — estimated at $58.08 for a 10-person gathering, or $5.81 a head — dropped 5% since last year, the lowest level since 2021, according to a nationwide survey of grocery prices by the American Farm Bureau Federation, which represents millions of U.S. farmers. But the picture improves further when adjusted for inflation.

“If your dollar had the same overall purchasing power as a consumer in 1984 … this would be the least expensive Thanksgiving meal in the 39-year history of the AFBF Thanksgiving survey, other than the outlier of 2020,” the authors wrote.

And, in addition, wages have increased. 

Other links:

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Guam Might Tip Over

It looks like the congressman might have been correct, but for the wrong reason. The two links:

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Apple, Tim Cook, And Donald Trump -- The Long Game -- November 24, 2024

Locator: 44412APPLE.

Link here.

Remember these numbers: 20, 60, and 200.

As "percents."

From the linked article:

For years, through carefully choreographed dinners and meetings, Apple CEO Tim Cook did something that has eluded many other corporate leaders: He developed a personal relationship with President-elect Donald Trump.

Their rapport has been built, in part, by zeroing in on areas of mutual interest between Apple and Trump’s agenda.

Now, with Trump’s cabinet taking shape and new circles of power emerging in Washington, executives across the corporate sphere are working to get in the good graces of the new administration. Plenty hope to follow Cook’s playbook.

In the first Trump administration, the Apple executive pioneered a template for how business leaders should engage with Trump. Instead of sending government relations executives or lobbyists, Cook would appeal to Trump directly through phone calls and meals, said people familiar with the interactions. 

Cook then developed a meeting strategy with Trump where he would bring one data point to home in on a single issue in a meeting, the people said. That approach helped keep the meetings from spiraling in too many directions. 

Big win on tariffs.

In 2017, as Trump was working on a tax-cut plan, Cook told the then-president that Apple would increase its U.S. investments if the company could repatriate $250 billion in overseas cash at a reduced tax rate. Trump would later cite Apple while promoting his tax plan. 

Cook’s biggest win took place in 2019 when Apple was facing down a potential 10% tariff on all imports from China, where Apple still overwhelmingly produces its devices. Cook personally lobbied Trump, explaining how tariffs would increase iPhone prices and help foreign rivals like Samsung. Days later, the Trump administration announced it would scale back its tariff plan, giving exceptions to a range of electronics, including the iPhone.

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The Large Data Center Revolution -- Shay Boloor -- November 24, 2024.

Locator: 44411TECH. 

Updates

Later, 6:29 CST: related. Link here.

Later, 4:42 p.m. CST: related. Link here.

Original Post 

The biggest winners in the AI data center revolution. Note: data center revolution. Not "tech / AI revolution," but a specific component, the data center revolution. Link here. From Shay Boloor.

The rise of AI isn’t just a trend -- it’s a seismic shift, and its ripple effects are reshaping industries at a pace that feels almost chaotic. Beneath the surface of this transformation lies an intricate web of infrastructure players, all converging to power the seemingly insatiable demands of AI. These aren’t just companies providing products -- they are the architects of a new era, spanning cloud services, semiconductors, servers, networking, and data management -- their combined efforts are creating the backbone for the next generation of intelligence.

At the forefront of this revolution, cloud service providers are emerging as the lifeblood of AI. They deliver the scalability and computational power that AI models feed on. AMZN leads the way, not merely by size but by its ability to innovate. SageMaker, its machine learning platform, simplifies model training and deployment, making AI accessible to enterprises at scale.
Meanwhile, MSFT charges forward with its strategic partnership with OpenAI, embedding itself deeper into workflows that demand agility and cutting-edge AI capabilities.
And then there’s GOOGL, leveraging its Gemini AI and Vertex AI platforms to merge foundational model prowess with a strong infrastructure.
But it doesn’t stop there. Smaller players like DOCN cater to SMBs with affordable, focused solutions, while ORCL and IBM carve out niches in enterprise-specific and regional markets. Even BABA, often overlooked in Western narratives, is an undeniable force, serving massive AI applications in e-commerce and logistics across Asia.

Yet, cloud power alone isn’t enough to sustain AI’s appetite. The real magic happens within semiconductors -- the beating heart of AI infrastructure.
NVDA towers over its competition, with GPUs like the H100 becoming synonymous with cutting-edge AI training. Its role is foundational, nearly irreplaceable, as it powers data centers and fuels innovation across industries.
AMD, however, is not content to play second fiddle, pushing its MI300 chips into the fray. While formidable, it’s a race where $NVDA remains several strides ahead, especially with the release of its Blackwell architecture, designed to further cement its dominance in AI workloads.
INTC, once the crown jewel of semiconductors, is fighting to reclaim relevance with its Gaudi AI processors, betting on cost-sensitive segments to stage its comeback.
Meanwhile, AVGO, in its quieter but equally crucial role, ensures that the networking and connectivity hardware supporting these chips operate seamlessly, stitching together the fabric of AI systems.

This computational power must live somewhere -- and that’s where servers come into play.
While SMCI has distinguished itself by delivering cutting-edge features like liquid cooling for AI-specific workloads, the server market remains fundamentally a commodity business. Liquid cooling, which allows SMCI’s servers to handle the intense power requirements of high-performance AI applications more efficiently, has been a strong differentiator. However, as AI adoption scales and price competition intensifies, DELL and HPE are leveraging their size and resources to outmaneuver SMCI in the broader server market.

Meanwhile, networking giants like CSCO and ANET are ensuring the highways of AI data run smoothly. Without them, the high-speed, low-latency transfers AI depends on would grind to a halt. Their innovations are the unsung heroes of this ecosystem, quietly facilitating the explosive growth of AI applications. As AI demands scale, their role becomes ever more pivotal, ensuring that no bottlenecks slow the flow of intelligence.

Of course, the treasure trove of data driving AI must be organized, analyzed, and acted upon. This is where the likes of SNOW and PLTR shine. Snowflake's pay-as-you-go pricing model aligns perfectly with the unpredictable needs of AI, while tools like Cortex empower companies to scale seamlessly. PLTR, with its Foundry platform, dives deep into complex analytics, turning raw data into actionable insights for governments and enterprises alike.
MDB and ESTC add layers of flexibility, while DDOG and CFLT keep systems running smoothly by providing real-time monitoring and data pipelines essential to AI.

Looming over all of this are the titans crafting foundational AI models.
META Llama, MSFT OpenAI, AMZN Anthropic, and GOOGL Gemini are not just products -- they’re blueprints for the future of intelligence. These companies, each in their unique way, are shaping how AI interacts with the world, bridging cutting-edge research with practical applications. Their efforts ripple through every layer of the infrastructure, from cloud to chip to server.

AI isn’t just growing -- it’s accelerating, pulling its entire ecosystem along for the ride. The players in this space aren’t merely reacting to change; they’re driving it, forging a path forward with innovations that redefine what’s possible. As the interplay between these companies deepens, the race to dominate this landscape becomes more intense, more complex, and ultimately more transformative. What emerges is not just an infrastructure for AI but a blueprint for the future of industries worldwide -- a future where every data point, every process, and every decision is touched by intelligence.

We've talked about this before. This reminds me of the second industrial revolution, 1870 - 1914. And this is why I suggest the second industrial revolution began in 1870 and 1914.


And like the second industrial revolution, there were a handful of companies in which one could invest. One didn't have to select among 1,000 companies. 

Minimum: seven stocks.

Optimum, perhaps: 15 stocks.

Max: 20 stocks. 

Note: Apple is not mentioned above because this is about large data centers. Apple is alone in its sector and their sector is not large data centers. Unless, of course, one thinks about the Mac Minis that are optimal for large data centers.

At the link, one can see a graphic of the narrative.

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Housing: The Next Big Thing? November 24, 2024

Locator: 44410HOUSING.

Link here to Lennar Homes.


Our dad / mom built a multi-generational home on Flathead Lake, Montana, back in the 1970s. It's been renovated extensively but the concept endures.

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Gasoline Price -- US -- November 24, 2024

Locator: 44409GASOLINE.

Link here. Hard to find a state in the US with average gasoline price greater than $3.00 / gallon. Except in California.

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Today's Question And Today's Movie -- November 24, 2024

Locator: 44408MUSK.

Question: how many times has Elon Musk watched this movie?

Movie of the day: Citizen Kane (1941).

The moment in the movie when it became clear: 34 minutes 14 seconds -- 35 minutes 37 seconds.

This movie could never be remade.

Had this movie been remade in the 70s, Jack Nicholson would have had the lead.

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Trump's Financial Team -- Still A Few Positions To Fill -- November 24, 2024

Locator: 44407TRUMP.

Trump 2.0 is tracked here.

National Economic Council: Larry Kudlow? Benizinga suggestion. Link here.

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COP: Longer Laterals Coming To The Permian's Delaware After MRO Closure -- November 24, 2024

Locator: 44406SHALE.

Link here.

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Germany And The EU: Theme For The Past Week -- November 24, 2024

Locator: 44405GERMANY.

Updates

November 26, 2024:

For example, Thyssenkrupp, Germany’s largest steelmaker, said on Monday it would slash 11,000 jobs in its steel division by 2030, in a major corporate reshuffle. “Urgent measures are needed to improve Thyssenkrupp Steel's own productivity and operating efficiency, and to achieve a competitive cost level,” the German industrial giant said. As Europe is bracing for the winter, wholesale electricity prices have jumped in November to the highest level in 20 months, additionally burdening the key industries in major economies that had just started to recover from the 2022 energy crisis.

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Archived As Of November 26, 2024

Germany, Angelica: link here.

Air traffic, air traffic, Dan: link here.


Energy:


  • Europe braces for expensive gas next summer, link here.
  • with winter still approaching, storage is being emptied faster than usual; gas prices have surges; raising echoes of the 2022 shock: link here.
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Tech Notes -- Sunday, November 24, 2024

Locator: 44404TECH.

Links: 

  • the biggest winners in the AI data center revolution. Note: data center revolution. Not "tech / AI revolution," but a specific component, the data center revolution. Link here. This may be a stand-along post later.
  • AMD vs INTC (Intel, too important to fail), Beth: link here.
  • nitpicking NVDA, Beth: link here.
  • Google search crushes the competition, Evan: link here.
  • NVDA (Nvidia) by the numbers, Alex: link here.
  • Market returns, largest stocks, Evan: link here.

The screenshots to go along with the links above:






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The New Apple iMac M4 -- November 24, 2024

Locator: 44403APPLE.

I've been holding out for a big screen but it may never be coming. I may have to settle for the new Apple iMac M4. Link here.

From the linked article, the lede:

The M4 iMac is a beautiful computer that feels more and more like it fell out of a universe where laptops never took off.

You can see it, can’t you? In a world without laptops, the iMac would be the ultimate computer. Instead of a box and a screen with a tangle of wires leading everywhere, everything you need is right there, jammed into an impossibly thin aluminum chassis. Monitor, processor, speakers, webcam, microphones, and all the ports: all built in. It’s elegant. It’s restrained. It’s lovely. It’s plenty fast enough for most people. The iMac would be in every library, in dorm rooms, in cubicles, in computer labs and living rooms. People would haul them to coffee shops.

Now imagine going to that universe and showing them a MacBook Pro. People might go for that instead.

Comparing a 24-inch desktop with a laptop is ridiculous. Tim Cook knows that. 

But why doesn't Tim Cook offer a 27-inch iMac? I think it's due to the cost. Right now, one can find the new iMac M4 for around $1,200.

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Every (?) Talking Head On CNBC Missed This One Before The Numbers Came Out; VideoOf The Day -- November 24, 2024

Locator: 44402RETAIL.

With Albertson's, Kroger, Tom Thumb, Walmart, and Target all within a mile radius of each other, I saw this coming more than a year ago. Blogged about it often.

I'm not sure if the old Tom Thumb store exists any more in our neighborhood; it's the one farthest away from us; most expensive; and we never went there again after we moved a half-mile down the road. Tom Thumb and Albertson's are now one and the same. Our "old Albertson's" store is our"new" Tom Thumb store.

If I want:

  • best price, great shopping experience: Walmart
  • something I can't find anywhere else: Walmart
  • great shopping experience along with great price: Kroger; great meat selection
  • convenience, okay prices, nice shopping experience: our "new" Tom Thumb store; perhaps best meat selection;
  • most expensive, lousy shopping experience: Target

Link here.


Meanwhile, Costco in China: link here.


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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
  • Longer version here.
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A Record Number Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- November 24, 2024

Locator: 44401WELLS.

The wells:

  • 40759, conf, Slawson Explortaion, Fish Finder 5-21-9H, Big Bend, npd,
  • 39747, conf, Hess, RS-F Nelson-156-92-2413H-2, Ross,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-2024160519405
8-2024173329300
7-2024186488510
6-20241923910252
  • 39590, conf, Grayson Mill, Niles 19-22F 4H, Briar Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20242774517994
8-20242151014038
7-20244248820808
6-2024147990
  • 39589, conf, Grayson Mill, Niles 19-22F 3H, Briar Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20243029821266
8-20242017113872
7-20243064714173
6-2024244700
  • 39588, conf, Grayson Mill, Niles 19-22F 2H, Briar Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20242925920082
8-20242190515097
7-20242882614027
6-2024313560
  • 33973, conf, Enerplus, Titanium 147-93-16A-21H, Moccasin Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-2024128801492
8-2024204742401
7-20241339908
6-20240692
  • 39750, conf, Hess, RS-F Nelson-156-91-2413H-5, Ross,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-2024144328480
8-2024135717878
7-202470887540
6-2024114435963
  • 40106, conf, Enerplus, Devils Canyon 147-97--17-20-7H, Lone Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20241924536413
8-20242391942793
7-20242029036479
6-20243046641278
  • 39749, conf, Hess, RS-F Nelson-156-91-2413H-4, Ross,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20241008710336
8-2024133629453
7-2024227659171
6-2024151467339
  • 40670, conf, CLR Carpenter 2-13H, East Fork, npd,
  • 40665, conf, CLR, Sandhill 7-24HSL, East Fork, npd,
  • 40661, conf, CLR, Sandhill 2-24H, East Fork, npd,
  • 40107, conf, Enerplus, Devils Canyon 147-97-17-20-8H, Lone Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20241993236311
8-20241405123561
7-20241628528364
6-20241980027014
5-202433174733
  • 39858, conf, Hess, EN-Charles-Wood-157-94-1720H-5, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20241539721210
8-20241664920499
7-202457876036
6-20243556545632
5-2024562123
  • 40673, conf, CLR, Carpenter 5-13H, East Fork, npd,
  • 40196, conf, Hess, EN-Dobrovolny-155-93-2821H-8, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-2024912010210
8-202499539463
7-20241046010030
6-20241183413362
5-2024126826
  • 40035, conf, Hess, BL-Svor-156-95-0403H-7, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20241230817897
8-20241076314756
7-20241526823599
6-20242656042597
5-202438745052
  • 39859, conf, Hess, EN-Lokken-157-94-0805H-4, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-202473894064
8-20241140812477
7-202477757868
6-20242391420876
5-202422962800
  • 39748, conf, Hess, RS-F Nelson-156-91-2413-3, Ross,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-2024134528631
8-2024135487707
7-202479087817
6-2024181339587
5-20242485687
  • 39218, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 146-97-29A-32-4H, Little Knife, npd,
  • 37940, conf, BR, Boxer 4B TFH, Pershing, npd,
  • 40671, conf, CLR, Carpenter 3-13H, East Fork, npd,
  • 40034, conf, Hess, BL-Svor-156-95-0403H-6, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20241563824787
8-20241375619575
7-20241363618509
6-20242540537285
5-202438133616
  • 39587, conf, Grayson Mill, Niles 19-22F 1H, Briar Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-202418100
5-202412580
  • 37939, conf, BR, Boxer 4A MBH, Pershing, npd,
  • 40551, conf, CLR, Sandhill 3-24H, East Fork, npd,
  • 40672, conf, CLR, Carpenter 4-13H, East Fork, npd,
  • 37938, conf, BR, Parrish 4C TFH, Pershing, npd,
  • 39751, conf, Hess, RS-F Nelson-156-91-2413H-6, Ross,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20241808710292
8-2024176769664
7-2024238609788
6-2024154297847
5-202459601937
  • 40662, conf, CLR, Sandhill 4-24H, East Fork, npd,
  • 40352, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 5H, Briar Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-202429965734
8-202427228138
7-2024292660
6-20241720
  • 40105, conf, Enerplus, Devils Canyon 147-97-17-20-6H, Lone Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20242205541080
8-20242235637002
7-202419880837
6-20241961040691
5-202476268914
  • 40029, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 4H, Briar Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-202426240605
8-20242093093
7-2024424840
6-202444240
  • 40028, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 3H, Briar Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-202426759643
8-202421527104
7-2024410840
6-20243340
  • 37937, conf, BR, Parrish 4B MBH, Pershing, npd,  
  • 40586, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Harris Federal 2-31H, Lone Butte, npd,

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