Monday, September 11, 2017

Spooky Scary -- Shale LNG -- US, China -- September 11, 2017 -- Why Coal Will Rise Again

Spooky, scary:
  • China is using LNG at "an alarming rate"
  • Current LNG glut could turn into a deficit twice the output of leading producer Qater
  • LNG capacity will start declining in some areas only four years from now
From Bloomberg:
The global glut plaguing liquefied natural gas markets may start to dwindle in five years, threatening to spur a deficit equivalent to twice the output of leading producer Qatar.
New projects are needed to fill the shortfall, with demand for the super-chilled fuel forecast to double in the 20 years to 2035.
Buyers in Asia are boosting use of the fuel at a “staggering” pace, Jack Fusco, chief executive officer of U.S. exporter Cheniere Energy Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview.
While plants currently in operation or being built will add to global oversupply, aging facilities and shrinking resources in some areas mean capacity will start declining after 2021.
That’s a boon for companies from Royal Dutch Shell Plc to Tellurian Inc. and Novatek PJSC looking to invest in new production in the next decade to meet demand.
“The continuous growth of the LNG market will leave a large margin for the implementation of new projects,” Cedigaz said in the report emailed Thursday.
The U.S. shale boom will make the country the biggest LNG producer by the end of the period, according to the Cedigaz report. Output will end in some nations such as Trinidad and Tobago.
“I foresee that the LNG market needs at least a hundred million tons of new liquefaction capacity above what’s under construction today in order to meet demand needs of the market by 2025,” Meg Gentle, chief executive officer at Tellurian, said by phone Thursday. “Demand is growing more than people expected.”
And it's not going to be just China.

There may be a reason China is moving to EVs -- energy requirements are not going to be met by oil or natural gas.

Back to coal. And sooner than we thought.

The Market And APPL -- September 11, 2017

The S&P 500 hit an all-time record today. All indices were up 1% today. September is a bad month for investors, they say.

Futures mean squat, but right now:

The Dow was up 250 points today, and right now is holding onto those gains, but the interesting thing is the further jump in S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

I assume much of the Nasdaq is being led by tech with Apple announcing new iPhone tomorrow. This is the interesting thing about the iPhone. No analyst or "talking head" seems to be concerned with the $1,000 price tag. This price point has been talked about for such a long time, a $1,000 price point tomorrow won't be a shock. Folks are ready for it.

It will be interesting how Tim Cook announces a $1,000+ iPhone -- lots of comparisons to mobile computers, no doubt. If the price comes in under $1,000 watch APPL shares surge. Of course, the former is not going to happen.

But folks are already talking making these comments:
  • the iPhone X will be high-end, marketed to high-end Apple buyers; a premium iPhone; Apple is surrounded by millionaires out in Silicon Valley and knows there is a lot of money out there
  • the iPhone X at $1,000+ becomes an "item" for the glitterati
  • for the rest of us, an $800 iPhone 8, 8-Plus will look like a bargain
  • but then this: for the rest of us, if $800 looks like a bargain, another $200 isn't all that much
  • and, besides, the phone companies will tether the $1,000 to a three-year plan making the phone even "more" affordable
My Samsung clam shell that I got about ten years ago seems to be on its last legs; new battery but the display seems to "dying." But no, no Apple iPhone for me; another clam shell if they are even available any more.

 Tesla Nightmare

Mercedes: announces it will offer "electric versions" of all its cars by 2022

VW: announces $84 billion in EV investment.

Absolutely fascinating.

Peak oil? What peak oil.

The real winner? Natural gas in the US; coal in most of the rest of the world. GE and any other company that makes transformers.

Random Look-Back At Hess BB-Burk, #17060 -- September 11, 2017

The graphic:

The production profile of #17060 in late 2013, late 2014:
  • 17060, 528, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-0718H-1, Blue Buttes, t7/08; cum 285K 7/17;

The dreaded Bakken decline stopped in its tracks and the increased production persisted for several months afterwards.

Similar "wells of interest" are tracked here

Whiting Reports A Nice Well; Hess With Five New Permits -- September 11, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs563769198180

Five new permits:
  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Blue Buttes (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Hess has permits for a 5-well Burk pad in Blue Buttes oil field, SESE-18-151-95; see below
Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend and today:
  • 32374, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Sabrosky 145-97-34D-27-3H, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 32773, 1,998, Whiting, State 34-36-1TFH, Tyrone, Three Forks, 46 stages; 7.1 million lbs, t3/17; cum 88K 7/17;
Finally, it's official:
  • 27235, dry, Strata-X, Rohweder 1-11; Emmons County

 32773, 1,998, Whiting, State 34-36-1TFH, Tyrone, Three Forks, 46 stages; 7.1 million lbs, t3/17; cum 88K 7/17;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare


Nothing About The Bakken -- Hurricanes and Investigations -- September 11, 2017

From Wiki:
Tropical Storm Doria was the costliest tropical cyclone in the 1971 Atlantic hurricane season.
The fifth tropical storm of the season, Doria developed from a tropical wave on August 20 to the east of the Lesser Antilles, and after five days without development it attained tropical storm status to the east of Florida. Doria turned to the north, and reached peak winds of 65 mph as it was making landfall near Morehead City, North Carolina. It turned to the northeast, and moved through the Mid-Atlantic and New England as a tropical storm before becoming an extratropical storm over Maine on August 29.

In North Carolina, Doria produced moderate rainfall, resulting in localized flooding and damage. The storm spawned a tornado near Norfolk, Virginia, damaging twelve houses and downing hundreds of trees.
Tropical Storm Doria dropped heavy precipitation in New Jersey, peaking at 10.29 inches in Little Falls. The rainfall led to record-breaking river levels and flooding in several houses, resulting in damage to dozens of houses across the state. Moderate damage and rainfall continued along its path into New England and southeastern Canada. In all, Tropical Storm Doria caused seven deaths and $147.6 million (1971 USD, $873 million 2017 USD).
It's a long, long story and I won't go into now but I came close to sustaining a financial disaster (but I didn't) due to tropical storm Doria. I was working in New Jersey when the storm hit. I say all that because the European model suggests Hurricane Jose is on the same trajectory.

By the way, I mentioned Tropical Storm Doria once before on the blog.

Why Mueller Won't Be A Martyr

As long as I'm reminiscing, I need to link this article on the Mueller investigation. Something said earlier today on talk radio reminded me of the story. I don't recall if I have linked this story before.

Hold On: US Supreme Court On Trump's Travel Ban 

From Bloomberg:
A U.S. Supreme Court justice on Monday issued a short-term order restoring President Donald Trump’s ban on thousands of refugees seeking entry to the country.
The order issued by Justice Anthony Kennedy puts a lower court ruling on hold until the high court decides whether to grant the administration’s request for a longer-term order. Kennedy ordered those opposing the administration to file court papers by noon Tuesday.
A federal appeals court ruled last week that the administration must temporarily admit refugees if a resettlement agency had promised that it would provide basic services for them. That decision was set to take effect Tuesday, and as many as 24,000 refugees have received such assurances, the administration said in papers filed with the high court.
My wife tells me this did not make the evening news and yet the story broke earlier this afternoon. Speaks volumes about "fair and balanced."

A Number Of Nice Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- September 11, 2017

Monday, September 18, 2017
  • 33348, SI/NC, MRO, Shrader 41-13H, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 32956, 696, Enerplus, Wheat 148-92-19B-20H, Heart Butte, t6/17; cum 54K 7/17;
  • 32776, 1,682, Whiting, State 34-36-2H, Tyrone, 45 stages, 7.2 million lbs, t3/17; cum 90K 7/17;
  • 31938, SI/NC, WPX, Rachel Wolf 22HC, Squaw Creek; producing, 244 bbls reported;
Sunday, September 17, 2017
  • 32165, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-4H, Charlson, no production data,
Saturday, September 16, 2017
  • 32775, 958, Whiting, State 34-36-2TFH, Three Forks, Tyrone, 45 stages, 7 million lbs, t3/17; cum 54K 7/17;
  • 28101, 1,554, WPX, Lucy Evans 29-32HW, Antelope, Sanish pool, Three Fork, 41 stages, 6.1 million lbs, t7/17; cum 46K 7/17;
Friday, September 15, 2017
  • None.
Thursday, September 14, 2017 
  • 32238, SI/NC, Statoil, Mark 4-9F XE 1H,  Williston, no production data,
  • 31783, 1,154, WPX, Lucy Evans 29-32HF, Antelope; t6/17; cum 14K 7/17;
Wednesday, September 13, 2017
  • 32774, 2,329, Whiting, State 34-36-1H, Tyrone, 50 stages; 8 million lbs, t3/17; cum 95K 7/17; spud date, October 3, 2016; cease drilling, October 10, 2016; TD = 10,170 feet; low background gas pressure;
  • 31871, conf, Newfield, Malm 149-98-14-23-4H, Pembroke, produced 21,000 bbls first month;
  • 31784, 2,155, WPX, Lucy Evans 29-32HUL, Antelope, Three Forks First Bench, 40 stages; 6 million lbs, t6/17; cum 50K 7/17;
Tuesday, September 12, 2017
  • 31474, 111, Crescent Point Energy, CPEC Elgaard 5 30-29-164N-100W, Colgan, t4/17; cum 14K 7/17;
I forgot to catch the wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend and today so we will see them later this afternoon.


 31784, see above, WPX, Lucy Evans 29-32HUL, Antelope:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32774, see above, Whiting, State 34-36-1H, Tyrone:
teOil RunsMCF Sold

28101, see above, WPX, Lucy Evans 29-32HW, Antelope:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32775, see above, Whiting, State 34-36-2TFH, Tyrone:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32776, see above, Whiting, State 34-36-2H, Tyrone:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32956, see above, Enerplus, Wheat 148-92-19B-20H, Heart Butte:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

North Dakota Has Its First Ever Miss America -- Less Than One Week After President Trump Visits Bismarck-Mandan -- September 11, 2017

Link here. Archived.

From Twitter --

I had forgotten that she was crowned Miss North Dakota in my hometown. Wow.

The Secret Life of Words:
How English Became English
Henry Hitchings
c. 2008

It begins, and I find it most interesting:
On a smoky October morning in 1697, a Puritan magistrate called Samuel Sewall went to visit the Lieutenant Governor at Dorchester, which is now a suburb of Boston on the American east coast. Sewall,
  • born in England, in a rural part of Hampshire;
  • Sewall had arrived in America as an adolescent;
  • he had studied at Harvard;
  • had managed the Boston printing press;
  • in 1692 had been one of the nine judges appointed to hear the Salem witch trials;
  • not long before his trip to Dorchester he had publicly expressed shame over his role in the last of these; but,
  • that October morning he had more appetizing business on this mind.
Dorchester seems to have been a place to go for good things to eat; Sewall had once taken his wife, Hannah, there so they could feast on cherries and raspberries. 

At the Lieutenant Governor's he met with his friend Samuel Torrey, a man chiefly distinguished for having declined the presidency of Harvard College, and together they breakfasted on 'Venison and Chockalatte', with Sewall amusedly reflecting that 'Massachuset and Mexico met at his Honour's Table.'
I assume "chockalatte"  was a chocolate latte coffee -- perhaps brewed at one of the local Starbucks coffee and ale houses. 

With so much attention on one aspect of American history in the past few weeks, slavery, it's easy to forget all the other "stuff" of which America can be very, very proud.

My hunch is that most of the paid protestors tearing down statues have never read much American history. But I could be wrong.

Raspberry Pi

Speaking of raspberries, there were no less than six magazines devoted to Raspberry Pi on the Barnes and Noble bookshelves. Arianna and Olivia have their own interests now and are not interested in Raspberry Pi, but in a couple of years, maybe Sophia will be interested.

The Sports Page

Hey, about those Dallas Cowboys, winning 19-3 over New York Giants. It should have been a blowout based on how both teams were playing. It really looked like Dallas was "toying" with New York. We'll never know but it looks like a game that the former Dallas quarterback could have found a way to lose.

Three-Year-Olds At School

First the iPad. These four iPads are "windowed" into a piece of wood. The iPads are brand new this year, and have not less than twenty different applications that the children can use. They are provided minimum instruction on how to use the iPads and they "learn" on their own.

The second photo is a bit dark but it's one of my favorites.  Resting under a tree during "recess" and looking very, very content.

Reminder: September Is The Worst Month For Investors -- CNBC Talking Heads And Others Last Week -- Market Up Almost 200 Points In Early Trading -- The Market And Energy Page, T+234 -- September 11, 2017 -- The Trump Rally Continues

Disclaimer: the usual disclaimer applies.

  • new highs -- 165, including -- CenterPoint Energy; Coca-Cola (owned a long time ago); McDonalds (I've never owned; never will); SRE (whoo-hoo); Steris (owned a long time ago)
  • new lows: 9 
The month is not yet over. Do you remember all those stories just a week or so ago "reminding" us that September was always the worst month for investments.

Today, a crawler on CNBC says that the Dow is one percent (1%) away from its record intra-day high. The Dow is up almost 200 points, the Nasdaq is up 55 points; the S&P is up 17 points.
  • 52-week high: 22,179.11
  • at mid-day: 22,027.36
No government shut down. Debt limit raised. Money flowing to Texas post-Hurricane Harvey. Alt-right president making deals with alt-left president. I wonder what Alexander Hamilton would advise current Secretary of the Treasury?

Later: S&P 500 closes at an all-time time. 

Warm Heart

The company says that a Tesla owner in a mandatory evacuation zone required another ~30 more miles of range to optimize his evacuation route in the traffic and they reached out to Tesla who agreed to a temporary access to the full 75 kWh of energy in the battery pack, an upgrade that has cost between $4,500 and $9,000 depending on the model and time of upgrade.
Considering the 15 kWh (30 to 40 additional miles) could also be useful to other owners affected by Irma, Tesla decided to also temporarily unlock other vehicles with the same software-lock battery packs in the region.
An upgrade to get an extra 35 miles for $9,000. Am I missing something here?

An extra 35 miles gets this much press? For one owner? It was one of the top ten finance stories over at Google Finance over the weekend and into today. Certainly there must be more going on. 

What, Me Worry?

China and EVs: Chinese investors shrug off Chinese talk about banning conventional gasoline automobile engines -- Bloomberg

What Goes Up, Must Come Down

US Solar bracing for first decline as demand for rooftop solar drops -- Bloomberg. This about says it all:
  • residential installations slipped 17% in second quarter 
  • industry sees two down years, and that’s without panel tariffs
By the way, at another site it was suggested that the amount of rooftop solar energy that was added in 2016 was huge -- 8% greater than the year before. I thought the story sounded a bit fishy -- I was going to post it and say that 8% of zero was still zero, but decided not to post that. Now from that linked Bloomberg article:
Developers added a total of almost 2.4 gigawatts in the second quarter, putting the industry on pace to reach 12.4 gigawatts this year.
That’s down about 17 percent from a record 2016, and the research company expects another decline in 2018.
As I've said many, many times, the rooftop solar energy fad seems just like the aluminum siding fad I saw in North Dakota when I was growing up there many decades ago.

The Saudi Trillions -- The London Review Of Books -- September 11, 2017


September 14, 2017: from The Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia clamps down as crown prince consolidates power.
Saudi Arabia is stamping out traces of internal dissent in a far-reaching campaign targeting influential clerics, liberal thinkers and even princes as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman moves to consolidate power ahead of his expected accession to the throne.
In the past week, Saudi authorities have detained more than 30 people, roughly half of them clerics, according to activists and people close to those who have been detained. The campaign goes beyond many of the government’s past clampdowns, both in the scope of those targeted and the intense monitoring of social media posts by prominent figures. It is not known if any charges have been filed.
“This is unlike anything Saudis have experienced before,” says Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi political commentator who left the kingdom recently and now lives in self-imposed exile in the U.S.
Original Post
From The London Review of Books, September 7, 2017, "The Saudi Trillions," page 13:
The Al Saud are a royal family like no other: there are thousands of them, descending from the 22 wives Ibn Saud had while technically observing the Sharia requirement of four wives – max – at any one time.
He was ‘father to the nation’ in more than a metaphorical sense. In the context of a tribal society, these prudential intermarriages had the benefit of binding together a number of different groups at a time when Ibn Saud was merely the head of a coalition of tribes who founded the modern kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932 after he invaded the Hejaz, with its holy cities, Mecca and Medina.
The trouble, presently, is that his descendants all expect their emoluments.
The scale of this burden can be gauged from a classified cable sent by Wyche Fowler, then US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, to his government in November 1996, exposed by WikiLeaks, in which he reports that members of the Al Saud family receive stipends ranging from $270,000 a month for more senior princes to $8000 ‘for the lowliest member of the most remote branch of the family’. The system is calibrated by generation, with surviving sons and daughters of Ibn Saud receiving between $200,000 and $270,000, grandchildren around $27,000, great-grandchildren around $13,000 and great-great-grandchildren the minimum $8000 per month.
According to the US embassy’s calculations, in 1996 the budget for around sixty surviving sons and daughters, 420 grandchildren, 2900 great-grandchildren and ‘probably only about 2000 great-great-grandchildren at this point’ amounted to more than $2 billion, with the stipends providing ‘a substantial incentive for royals to procreate’ since – in addition to bonuses received on marriage for palace construction – a royal stipend begins at birth. One minor prince, according to a Saudi source, had persuaded a community college in the state of Oregon to enrol him even though he had no intention of attending classes: his principal goal in life was to have more children so he could increase his monthly allowance.
So, let's break that out so it's easier to read:
  • senior princes: $270,000 / month
  • lowliest family members of most remote branches: $8,000 / month
  • calibrated by generation
    • surviving sons and daughters of Ibn Saud: $200,000 to $270,000 (sons probably get more than daughters; otherwise, why would there be a range?)
    • grandchildren: $27,000 / month
    • great-grandchildren: $13,000 / month
    • great-great-grandchildren: a minimum of $8,000 / month
  • data from 1996 (hard to believe that's the most current data available)
    • sixty surviving sons and daughters
    • 420 grandchildren
    • 2,900 great-grandchildren
    • 2,000 great-great-grandchildren (and the number has to be growing)
  • $2 billion per year

The article certainly suggests that intra-family rivalry between MBS and MBN has not completely resolved.
At 81 Salman is in fragile health: he has had two strokes and suffers from Alzheimer’s.
On 21 June the doting king promoted his favourite son, the 31-year-old Prince Mohammed bin Salman (widely known by the initials MBS), to the position of crown prince, putting him in line to be the first of the third generation – Ibn Saud’s grandsons – to occupy the throne.
According to the New York Times, MBS’s elevation at the expense of his older cousin, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef (known as MBN), was the result of a well-executed plot.
MBN had been highly regarded by the US and its allies: as head of the interior ministry and chief of Saudi intelligence he presided over operations against al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP); he had attended training sessions with the FBI and was a powerful advocate of continued close relations with the Americans. In February the CIA honoured him with the George Tenet medal, in recognition of his ‘excellent intelligence performance in the domain of counterterrorism and his unbounded contribution to realise world security and peace’.
On the night of 20 June, the eve of the Eid al-Fitr festival that ends the holy month of Ramadan, MBN was summoned along with other senior princes for an audience with the king. Shortly before midnight courtiers answering to MBS – who was already chief of the royal court as well as the world’s youngest minister of defence – removed his phones and pressured him to relinquish his posts. MBN at first refused but eventually gave in and is now said to be under palace arrest.
Afterwards clips of MBN paying allegiance to his younger cousin were shown on Saudi media, to demonstrate a smooth transition, and it was put about – this time by US as well as Saudi officials – that MBN had been suffering from the effects of the ‘arsehole bomb’ attack in 2009, when an al-Qaida operative masquerading as a petitioner approached him and blew himself up with an IED hidden in his rectum. MBN survived the attack but was said to have become addicted to medication he had been taking to mitigate the effects of the trauma.
Members of the Allegiance Council, a body of 34 senior princes established by King Abdullah in 2006 to resolve disputes by approving changes in the line of succession, were told that MBN had a drug problem and was unfit to be king. Despite private reservations, the council deferred to King Salman and rubber-stamped its approval, in a vote of 31 to three.
Of course, the article goes on to tie Trump with MBS, the latter being portrayed as the "useful idiot." But that's an entirely different story but it did remind me to take any "political" essay in the LRB wiht a grain of salt.

Monday, Monday -- September 11, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs553769198180

RBN Energy: not good news for new pipelines. Judges running amok. (Be sure to see first comment.)
A federal appellate court decision has set back the start-up of a newly completed set of natural gas pipelines in the U.S. Southeast, and raised the possibility that all gas pipeline projects will need to clear a new — and potentially challenging — hurdle before they can secure a final OK from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).
In its late-August ruling in Sierra Club, et al vs. FERC, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit said FERC’s environmental impact statement for the Southeast Market Pipelines Project, which includes the 1.1-Bcf/d Sabal Trail pipeline from west-central Alabama to central Florida, should have considered greenhouse gas emissions from gas-fired power plants the new pipelines will serve.
Usually a bad sign: Saudis stress commitment to economic change despite challenges. Riyadh has backtracked on some moves recently, and there are worries about a public backlash. Story at The WSJ. Data points:
  • Saudi Vision 2030, the Saudi economic plan unveiled April, 2016
  • introduced by MBS, age 32, who leapfrogged his nephew MBN to become crown prince (next king)
  • the government has backtracked on some politically-sensitive moves
  • postponing an increase in fuel prices and reinstating some government employee perks
  • the government is redrafting part of the plan to allow more time for implementation
Strange bedfellows: China invests $9.1 billion in Rosneft. Data points at Reuters:
  • Chinese conglomerate CEFC will buy a 15% stake in Russian oil major Rosneft for $9.1 billion
  • buyer: CEFC, the world's second largest energy consumer; will boost cooperation with Russia
  • seller: a consortium of Glencore and Qatar
  • US sanctions on Russia makes it difficult for companies like Glencore to develop partnerships and increase ties with state-owned firms such as Rosneft
  • Rosneft's market cap almost $60 billion
  • the CEFC deal is one of the largest investments ever made by China into Russia
  • meanwhile China announced it will seen announce a date when the country plans to ban conventional gasoline-powered cars
Minor note: Statoil says Eagle Ford operations back to normal after Hurricane Harvey.

Better lucky than smart: Rush Limbaugh was exactly right on Hurricane Irma. It will be interesting to see if he mentions that today on his newscast.