Friday, December 20, 2024

Week 50: December 15, 2024 -- December 21, 2024

Locator: 44495B.  

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Hiatus Between November 5, 2024 - January 20, 2025: Twelve Weeks
Biden-Trump Transition
December 15 - December 21, 2024: Week Seven

The transition works this way, this cycle:

  • Biden's emphasis is on pardons and commutations; 
    • setting up Trump for failure; Biden will fade away
  • Trump's focus is to look presidential well before inauguration
    • putting his administration (and "Shadow Government") in place;
    • nominations: being named
    • executive orders being drafted

The Florida White House:

  • Trump is the president, simply waiting to make it official, January 20th (unchanged from last week)
  • surrounding himself with "self-made billionaires"
  • those billionaires not named to his administration are making pilgrimages to Mar-a-Lago
    • to state their case why they are worthy
      • sort of reminds me of the three wise men making their way to Bethlehem
      • in this case: Zuckerberg, Bezos, and Tim Cook
    • Mar-a-Lago's chief of staff: Elon Musk

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The Top Stories

Top story of the week:

  • Federal government passed continuing resolution to keep government open / operating through March
  • Musk, Trump provided mixed messages throughout the process

Top international non-energy story:

  • Trudeau's government likely to fail but as of December 22, 2024, still the prime minister

Top international energy story:


Top national non-energy story:

  • stock market volatility; after the Fed's meeting, the US equity markets tanked, but then recovered before the week ended;
    • the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but JPow, playing the role of Scrooge this year, said he expected only two more cuts in the entire 2025 year when traders were banking on four more cuts; all of a sudden the Fed sounds more hawkish
    • interestingly, after the Fed meeting, US economic numbers came in stronger than ever
  • tech stocks led the market slump; 
  • Apple / AAPL finished the week hitting an all-time high.

Top national energy story:

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:


Geoff Simon's quick connectslink here.

NOG Response To Granite Ridge Rumor -- December 20, 2024

Locator: 44494B. 

Link here

In response to today's rumor, NOG, at its website, replied:

It Appears The Spending Bill Will Pass -- December 20, 2024

 Locator: 44493POLITICS.  

BREAKING: House votes to pass bill! Now, it's up to the US Senate. The US Senate is preparing to vote.

  • not a win for Trump/Musk -- with regard to the "debt limit"
    • Trump / Musk supported the bill but wanted the "debt limit" removed -- in other words, Trump / Musk wanted "no debt limit" going into his presidency. 
    • so, after the bill passed, after originally telling the US House to pass it, now says he's unhappy with the bill
  • a huge win for the country
  • a big win for the Mike Johnson
  • a nice win for the Democrats

The US House vote: 366 for to 34 against, for passage.

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Posted Moments Before The Vote

Link to The New York Times.

Fast-tracking the spending bill requires 67% of the US House to vote for it.

  • the GOP has, maybe, a six-vote margin;
  • Mike Johnson will need the support of many of the Democrats
  • if the spending bill fails, the government shutdown is technically on Biden's watch, but the story can easily be spun that it's the GOP's "fault" -- assuming, of course, one wants to find fault;
    • and if it's the GOP's fault, it's the fault of Elon Musk and Donald Trump
  • Stripped down to what the continuing resolution is now suggests that folks will vote on this bill:
    • for philosophical reasons;
    • to send a message;
    • to embarrass Trump; 
    • to stand up to Musk;
    • because they want to get home for Christmas.

The actual dollar amount no longer matters. It's all about emotion or philosophy or messaging or crankiness.

 
Much more interesting than the 38 GOP members that are likely to vote "no," are the 111 or so Democrat house members that need to vote with the GOP to pass the continuing resolution.

Here's how the first spending bill vote went:


Getting from two to 111 seems like a bridge too far.

This is where Elon Musk is a huge liability. This is getting quite interesting. President Biden has not, as far as most of  us know, articulated his preferences.
 
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America's Red Shift: Now Who's On The Wrong Side Of History


Essay by Charles R. Kesler, editor of the Claremont Review of Books.

Claremont Review of Books, Fall 2024, p. 6.

Six-page essay on the Trump-Harris campaigns and outcome.

The essay leads up to Obama's famous "on the right side of history" speech in which he originally suggested that those on the right side of history will eventually win because it's the right side of history.

But, now, with the outcome of the 2024 presidential election he has changed his speech slightly. "The right side of history" is not a given to win out. For the "right side of history" to win out, "we must will it to win."

"The right side of history" is not a given. In fact, it may not even be the "right side of history."

His argument leads up to a very fun piece of writing, page 12:
Though he didn't use that demographic argument in his speech to the DNC in Chicago, Obama still looked forward confidently to building "a true Democratic majority." Someone ought to endow a prized and name it after Obama -- the Barack Obama Prize -- prize for being painfully out of touch with your own country. 

He (Obama) should receive the inaugural trophy. He could display it alongside the Nobel Prize he got in 2009 for bringing peace to the world. Trump and the MAGA Republicans are now in the process of assimilating working-class voters, including young black and Hispanics, supposedly elements that "true Democratic majority," into a new Trumpian movement that may form, in time, a new Republican majority party.
 
Consider Hispanic voters. Exit polls showed Trump winning about 55% of the Latino male vote. CNN reported a 42% swing toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. And it wasn't just en. Support for the Democrats among Latinas, according to CNN, dropped from a 44% advantage in 2016 to a 22-point advantage this year.
 
The Los Angeles Times interviewed some of Trump's Latino supporters. "Why am I for Trump?" asked Tomas Garcia, who supported him in 2016, 2020, and 2024. "Because I'm an American first of all." 
The70-year-old's great-grandparents emigrated from Mexico. "Hispanics are about the American dream, said Abraham Enriquez, 29, who was raised by the children of Mexican immigrant parents in west Texas.
"Trump being a billionaire from New York, with a beautiful family and a beautiful wife, as a young Hispanic man, that is the American dream, that is what you one day want to be like."
Michael Fienup, an economist who studies Hispanics, commented, "Latinos are hard-working, they're self -sufficient, they're entrepreneurial, they're patriotic, they're optimistic. Guess what? Those are fundamentally American characteristics."

Venture Global To File For IPO -- December 20, 2024

Locator: 44492B.  

Venture Global files for IPO; scheduled for 2025.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.55.

Active rigs: 36.

Four new permits, #41450 - #41453, inclusive:

  • Operator: Grayson Mill
  • Field: Todd (Williams) -- the city of Williston
  • Comments:
    • Grayson Mill has permits for four Wagenman wells, SESE 32-155-101, 
      • to be sited 399 FSL and between 1226 FEL and 1136 FEL.

Two permits renewed:

  • Formentera Operations: FTH1 ... ATF and FTH1 ... AMB in the Foothills oil field, Burke County.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 37938, 1,239, BR, Devils Backbone 3A UTFH, McKenzie County.

American Exceptionalism -- December 20, 2024

Locator: 44491LDC.  

The grid, from oilprice:

From last week:

Data center growth: link here. American exceptionalism:

Now this from Reuters today:

Investors might want to listen to the interview with the governor of Virginia from earlier this week on CNBC. The governor by the way is a Republican in a blue state and will run circles around VP-elect JD Vance in 2028 if that is God's will (inshallah).

Four Reuters Headlines For Investors -- December 20, 2024

Locator: 44490LNG. 

Tag: Nvidia NVDA LDC batteries EVs electricity Northvolt Run:ai 




LNG: The Most Egregious Headline Today -- From Reuters -- December 20, 2024

Locator: 44490LNG. 

The headline over at Reuters. It may not even be accurate. The final numbers are not in. I assume, if a ship is scheduled to sale on December 31, 2024, and it's delayed by a few hours and pushes off on January 1, 2025, that will be reported as an export as of January 1, 2025, not December 31, 2024. If it doesn't work that way ....

The story is behind a paywall now but the article itself:

  • contradicts itself;
  • contradicts the headline; and,
  • gives a false sense of what's happening in real time.

Very disappointing.

I was also disappointed the way Charles Kennedy chose to report it over at oilprice. He obviously phoned in the story. 

Here are additional headlines:

Economic Numbers Today -- December 20, 2024

Locator: 44489ECONOMY.

Wow, those economic numbers today! Whoo-hoo!  

GDPNow: link here. Steady at 3.1. Another whoo-hoo!

US Government Shutdown -- The Sequel -- Part II -- December 20, 2024

Locator: 44488POLITICS.

Update: no government shutdown. The big question now? Why, what happened, and who is the winner / loser? I was incredibly wrong on my expected outcome. At the end of the day this is why it passed:

  • the bill was almost a "clean bill"
  • the politicos wanted to get home for Christmas
  • the Dems did not want a government shutdown on their watch
  • the Dems definitely did not want to embarrass Biden on his way out

Original Post

It appears this is Trump's second government shutdown.

I would be completely amazed if there wasn't a government shutdown -- Friday, tonight, 12:00 midnight is the deadline. Cinderella's coach turns into a pumpkin. This is not rocket science. There are several reasons why the government shutdown will happen (and it makes sense). If I find time, I will post those reasons later, but I'm sure you've already figured them out. 

Speaker Mike Johnson says he has a plan. They will vote on it today. If he does have a plan that could possibly pass today it would be a one page plan that makes sure mission essential government employees are at work and being paid with no break in "coverage." Social security is not effected by a government shutdown, so all we're talking about is the military and TSA. And that's about it. And, of course, the bureaucrats that are responsible for funding Elon Musk's various government funded projects, of which there are many.

Trump's first shutdown:


I cannot even recall how that affected me.

But we're facing it again. OMG.

This time it should last about the same length of time -- perhaps a month longer. The new Congress is expected to be sworn in on January 3, 2025. It will take a week or so for the new house speaker to be elected (?) if all goes well, and it probably won't. Then, the inauguration is set for January 20th. President Xi (eleven in roman numerals, but he seventh Chinese president since 2013) will tell Trump to start the inauguration ceremony without him. There could be some stopgap measures "immediately" upon Trump's swearing in but the "complete" bill might not be ready for weeks. Sort of depends on what Elon Musk and DOGE want.

Back To The Bakken -- December 20, 2024

Locator: 44487B.

WTI: $69.09.

Monday, December 23, 2024: 32 for the month; 135 for the quarter, 663 for the year

  • 40001, conf, Hess, GO-Hoyt-157-97-2833H-2,
  • 35510, conf, Enerplus, FB Clinton 148-94-29B-32-8T,
  • 35509, conf, Enerplus, FB Clinton 148-94-29B-32-7B,

Sunday, December 22, 2024: 29 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 660 for the year

  • None.

Saturday, December 21, 2024: 29 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 659 for the year

  • 37667, conf, BR, Nordeng 1B TFH,
Friday, December 20, 2024: 28 for the month; 131 for the quarter, 658 for the year
  • 40039, conf, Hess, BL-Hersel-156-95-0910H-2,

RBN Energy: oil producers appears unlikely to boost spending in 2025 on declining returns.

After languishing since midsummer, the share prices of U.S. oil and gas producers surged after Election Day on a wave of optimism that the sector would flourish under the new administration. However, stocks quickly gave up most of the gains on lackluster Q3 2024 results and a great deal of uncertainty about how — or even if — President-elect Trump’s oft-quoted goal to “drill baby drill” to lower energy costs would impact the strategies and results of the publicly traded E&Ps, especially the 15 major Oil-Weighted producers we cover. In today’s RBN blog, we delve deeper into the impact of the Q3 results of the oil producers on shareholder returns, cash allocation, leverage and capital investment, including the first announcements of 2025 budgets.

Winter Reading Program -- 2024 - 2025 -- December 20, 2024

Locator: 44486ARCHIVES.

Economy: the amount of economic news and commentary this morning was simply overwhelming. I will get to it later. But it is quite amazing to say the least. 

I have no idea what the market did yesterday -- I guess I saw a headline that said the Dow eked out a small gain -- and have not looked at the market today, nor have I turned on CNBC which I will ignore through Christmas, and probably through the first of the new year. I couldn't possibly be in a better mood with regard to investing but it's way too volatile to watch now. My pet peeve: listening to the talking heads in a period of such volatility. 

For the archives: as noted some time ago, I'm in the process of moving all my investments into the accounts of the grandchildren. 

That will take some time, of course, and it will not be complete, of course, until the death certificates are received by the administrators of the estate. Hopefully that date is 20+ years into the future, but in the meantime all new money is going into the grandchildren accounts.

I joke that it's now being managed by Sophia, which, of course, it isn't, but "Sophia" has become my metonym when it comes to investing. I'm hoping that by the time she is 17 years old, it becomes more then a metonym and she takes an active interest in managing the estate. More than likely it will be one of her cousins, either Judah or Levi that takes over from Sophia, or even better, the three of them work together as a team. Maybe one of the older cousins will become their mentor / advisor.

December is a huge month for Sophia.

  • dividends make up a large part of her new money. March, June, September, and December are the biggest months by far for dividends. One exception: her biggest holding pays dividends in February, May, August, and November
  • RMDs from her grandparents are generally taken in December
  • it was pure luck but the dividends, with some minor exceptions, and the RMDs, were on the books before December 18th, 2024, this. year. Pure luck.
  • approximately 75% of December's new money was put into the market before December 18th, this past week, but the other 25% is yet to be invested
  • by the end of the year, again, Sophia will be fully invested in equities, no cash, and no fixed income except as managed / held by professionally-managed IRAs (negligible).

Winter begins tomorrow.

Today, in north Texas, it's a bit cool. Temperatures will reach a high of 57°F today, but then will get warmer over the next few days. Christmas? A high in the low-to-mid-60s. Whoo-hoo.

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Winter Reading Program -- Update

A reminder: my winter reading program, updated. 

My "winter reading program": mid-October to mid-May. The summer reading program, mid-May to mid-October, to coincide with the period when Sophia and I can enjoy the outdoor pool. 

Books will be continued to be added to the winter reading program at a rate of about one new book every two weeks.

The India Trilogy

The New India: The Unmaking of the World's Largest Democracy, Rahul Bhatia, c. 2024.

Vishnu's Crowded Temple: India Since The Great Rebellion, Maria Misra, c. 2007.

India: A History
, John Keay, c. 2000, 2010.Vishnu's Crowded Temple: India Since The Great Rebellion, Maria Misra, c. 2007 

US History

A Hell of a Storm: The Battle For Kansas, The End of Compromise, and the Coming of the Civil War, David S. Brown, c. 2024. 

Four essays back-to-back in the current issue of Claremont Review of Books, Fall 2024:

  • "The Liberties of a Nation": Thomas Jefferson and the Fight Against Slavery, by Cara Rogers Stevens, University Pres of Kansas, 400 pages, $54.00, essay / book review by Jean M. Yarbrough, p. 56.
  • "The Great Miscalculation": A Hell of a Storm: The Battle for Kansas, the End of Compromise, and the Coming of the Civil War, by David S. Brown, Scribner, 352 pages, $32, essay / book review by Christoper Flannery, p. 59.
  • "A Rediscovered Gem": The United States, Governed by Six Hundred Thousand Despots: A True Story of Slavery, by John Swanson Jacobs, edited by Jonathan D.S. Schroeder, University of Chicago Press, 328 pages, $115 (cloth), $20 (paper), p. 62.
  • "Reconstructing Reconstruction": The Rise and Fall of the Second American Republic: Reconstruction, 1860 - 1920, by Manisha Sinha, Liveright, 592 pages, $39.99 (cloth), $19.99 (paper), p. 64.

The Quakers in America, Thomas D Hamm, Columbia Contemporary American Religion Series, c. 2006. 

A mnemonic to remember the 13th, 14th, and 15th amendments: Free Citizens Vote. A shout-out to the Texas LRE

It is absolutely amazing how much Congress accomplished between 1860 and 1870. Amazing. Under incredibly difficult and polarizing times. President Andrew Johnson vetoed the civil rights act in 1866 ensuring black citizenship which the US Congress overrode.

Other

The Genetic Book of the Dead: A Darwinian Reverie, Richard Dawkins, c. 2024. Illustrated by Jana Lenzovå.

The Secret History of Sharks, John Long, c. 2024

Stanford University: A Campus Guide, Richard Joncas, David J. Neuman, and Paul V. Turner, c.1999

Colossus: Bletchley Park's Greatest Secret, Paul Gannon, c. 2006.

The New Annotated Frankenstein, Mary Shelley, edited by Leslie S. Klinger, c. 2017.

Note: The Annotated Emerson, Ralph Waldo Emerson, edited by David Mikics, foreword by Phillip Lopate. c. 2012, was part of last summer's reading program (2024).