Locator: 44495B.
Pending.
Friday, December 20, 2024
Venture Global To File For IPO -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44492B.
Venture Global files for IPO; scheduled for 2025.
************************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $69.55.
Active rigs: 36.
Four new permits, #41450 - #41453, inclusive:
- Operator: Grayson Mill
- Field: Todd (Williams) -- the city of Williston
- Comments:
- Grayson Mill has permits for four Wagenman wells, SESE 32-155-101,
- to be sited 399 FSL and between 1226 FEL and 1136 FEL.
Two permits renewed:
- Formentera Operations: FTH1 ... ATF and FTH1 ... AMB in the Foothills oil field, Burke County.
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
- 37938, 1,239, BR, Devils Backbone 3A UTFH, McKenzie County.
American Exceptionalism -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44491LDC.
The grid, from oilprice:
From last week:
Data center growth: link here. American exceptionalism:
Now this from Reuters today:
Investors might want to listen to the interview with the governor of Virginia from earlier this week on CNBC. The governor by the way is a Republican in a blue state and will run circles around VP-elect JD Vance in 2028 if that is God's will (inshallah).
Four Reuters Headlines For Investors -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44490LNG.
Tag: Nvidia NVDA LDC batteries EVs electricity Northvolt Run:ai
LNG: The Most Egregious Headline Today -- From Reuters -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44490LNG.
The headline over at Reuters. It may not even be accurate. The final numbers are not in. I assume, if a ship is scheduled to sale on December 31, 2024, and it's delayed by a few hours and pushes off on January 1, 2025, that will be reported as an export as of January 1, 2025, not December 31, 2024. If it doesn't work that way ....
The story is behind a paywall now but the article itself:
- contradicts itself;
- contradicts the headline; and,
- gives a false sense of what's happening in real time.
Very disappointing.
I was also disappointed the way Charles Kennedy chose to report it over at oilprice. He obviously phoned in the story.
Here are additional headlines:
Economic Numbers Today -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44489ECONOMY.
Wow, those economic numbers today! Whoo-hoo!
GDPNow: link here. Steady at 3.1. Another whoo-hoo!
US Government Shutdown -- The Sequel -- Part II -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44488POLITICS.
It appears this is Trump's second government shutdown.
I would be completely amazed if there wasn't a government shutdown -- Friday, tonight, 12:00 midnight is the deadline. Cinderella's coach turns into a pumpkin. This is not rocket science. There are several reasons why the government shutdown will happen (and it makes sense). If I find time, I will post those reasons later, but I'm sure you've already figured them out.
Speaker Mike Johnson says he has a plan. They will vote on it today. If he does have a plan that could possibly pass today it would be a one page plan that makes sure mission essential government employees are at work and being paid with no break in "coverage." Social security is not effected by a government shutdown, so all we're talking about is the military and TSA. And that's about it. And, of course, the bureaucrats that are responsible for funding Elon Musk's various government funded projects, of which there are many.
Trump's first shutdown:
I cannot even recall how that affected me.
But we're facing it again. OMG.
This time it should last about the same length of time -- perhaps a month longer. The new Congress is expected to be sworn in on January 3, 2025. It will take a week or so for the new house speaker to be elected (?) if all goes well, and it probably won't. Then, the inauguration is set for January 20th. President Xi (eleven in roman numerals, but he seventh Chinese president since 2013) will tell Trump to start the inauguration ceremony without him. There could be some stopgap measures "immediately" upon Trump's swearing in but the "complete" bill might not be ready for weeks. Sort of depends on what Elon Musk and DOGE want.
Back To The Bakken -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44487B.
WTI: $69.09.
Monday, December 23, 2024: 32 for the month; 135 for the quarter, 663 for the year
- 40001, conf, Hess, GO-Hoyt-157-97-2833H-2,
- 35510, conf, Enerplus, FB Clinton 148-94-29B-32-8T,
- 35509, conf, Enerplus, FB Clinton 148-94-29B-32-7B,
Sunday, December 22, 2024: 29 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 660 for the year
- None.
Saturday, December 21, 2024: 29 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 659 for the year
- 37667, conf, BR, Nordeng 1B TFH,
- 40039, conf, Hess, BL-Hersel-156-95-0910H-2,
RBN Energy: oil producers appears unlikely to boost spending in 2025 on declining returns.
After languishing since midsummer, the share prices of U.S. oil and gas producers surged after Election Day on a wave of optimism that the sector would flourish under the new administration. However, stocks quickly gave up most of the gains on lackluster Q3 2024 results and a great deal of uncertainty about how — or even if — President-elect Trump’s oft-quoted goal to “drill baby drill” to lower energy costs would impact the strategies and results of the publicly traded E&Ps, especially the 15 major Oil-Weighted producers we cover. In today’s RBN blog, we delve deeper into the impact of the Q3 results of the oil producers on shareholder returns, cash allocation, leverage and capital investment, including the first announcements of 2025 budgets.
Winter Reading Program -- 2024 - 2025 -- December 20, 2024
Locator: 44486ARCHIVES.
Economy: the amount of economic news and commentary this morning was simply overwhelming. I will get to it later. But it is quite amazing to say the least.
I have no idea what the market did yesterday -- I guess I saw a headline that said the Dow eked out a small gain -- and have not looked at the market today, nor have I turned on CNBC which I will ignore through Christmas, and probably through the first of the new year. I couldn't possibly be in a better mood with regard to investing but it's way too volatile to watch now. My pet peeve: listening to the talking heads in a period of such volatility.
For the archives: as noted some time ago, I'm in the process of moving all my investments into the accounts of the grandchildren.
That will take some time, of course, and it will not be complete, of course, until the death certificates are received by the administrators of the estate. Hopefully that date is 20+ years into the future, but in the meantime all new money is going into the grandchildren accounts.
I joke that it's now being managed by Sophia, which, of course, it isn't, but "Sophia" has become my metonym when it comes to investing. I'm hoping that by the time she is 17 years old, it becomes more then a metonym and she takes an active interest in managing the estate. More than likely it will be one of her cousins, either Judah or Levi that takes over from Sophia, or even better, the three of them work together as a team. Maybe one of the older cousins will become their mentor / advisor.
December is a huge month for Sophia.
- dividends make up a large part of her new money. March, June, September, and December are the biggest months by far for dividends. One exception: her biggest holding pays dividends in February, May, August, and November
- RMDs from her grandparents are generally taken in December
- it was pure luck but the dividends, with some minor exceptions, and the RMDs, were on the books before December 18th, 2024, this. year. Pure luck.
- approximately 75% of December's new money was put into the market before December 18th, this past week, but the other 25% is yet to be invested
- by the end of the year, again, Sophia will be fully invested in equities, no cash, and no fixed income except as managed / held by professionally-managed IRAs (negligible).
Winter begins tomorrow.
Today, in north Texas, it's a bit cool. Temperatures will reach a high of 57°F today, but then will get warmer over the next few days. Christmas? A high in the low-to-mid-60s. Whoo-hoo.
********************************
Winter Reading Program -- Update
A reminder: my winter reading program, updated.
My "winter reading program": mid-October to mid-May. The summer reading program, mid-May to mid-October, to coincide with the period when Sophia and I can enjoy the outdoor pool.
Books will be continued to be added to the winter reading program at a rate of about one new book every two weeks.
The India Trilogy
The New India: The Unmaking of the World's Largest Democracy, Rahul Bhatia, c. 2024.
Vishnu's Crowded Temple: India Since The Great Rebellion, Maria Misra, c. 2007.
India: A History, John Keay, c. 2000, 2010.Vishnu's Crowded Temple: India Since The Great Rebellion, Maria Misra, c. 2007
US History
A Hell of a Storm: The Battle For Kansas, The End of Compromise, and the Coming of the Civil War, David S. Brown, c. 2024.
Four essays back-to-back in the current issue of Claremont Review of Books, Fall 2024:
- "The Liberties of a Nation": Thomas Jefferson and the Fight Against Slavery, by Cara Rogers Stevens, University Pres of Kansas, 400 pages, $54.00, essay / book review by Jean M. Yarbrough, p. 56.
- "The Great Miscalculation": A Hell of a Storm: The Battle for Kansas, the End of Compromise, and the Coming of the Civil War, by David S. Brown, Scribner, 352 pages, $32, essay / book review by Christoper Flannery, p. 59.
- "A Rediscovered Gem": The United States, Governed by Six Hundred Thousand Despots: A True Story of Slavery, by John Swanson Jacobs, edited by Jonathan D.S. Schroeder, University of Chicago Press, 328 pages, $115 (cloth), $20 (paper), p. 62.
- "Reconstructing Reconstruction": The Rise and Fall of the Second American Republic: Reconstruction, 1860 - 1920, by Manisha Sinha, Liveright, 592 pages, $39.99 (cloth), $19.99 (paper), p. 64.
The Quakers in America, Thomas D Hamm, Columbia Contemporary American Religion Series, c. 2006.
A mnemonic to remember the 13th, 14th, and 15th amendments: Free Citizens Vote. A shout-out to the Texas LRE.
It is absolutely amazing how much Congress accomplished between 1860 and 1870. Amazing. Under incredibly difficult and polarizing times. President Andrew Johnson vetoed the civil rights act in 1866 ensuring black citizenship which the US Congress overrode.
Other
The Genetic Book of the Dead: A Darwinian Reverie, Richard Dawkins, c. 2024. Illustrated by Jana Lenzovå.
The Secret History of Sharks, John Long, c. 2024
Stanford University: A Campus Guide, Richard Joncas, David J. Neuman, and Paul V. Turner, c.1999
Colossus: Bletchley Park's Greatest Secret, Paul Gannon, c. 2006.
The New Annotated Frankenstein, Mary Shelley, edited by Leslie S. Klinger, c. 2017.
Note: The Annotated Emerson, Ralph Waldo Emerson, edited by David Mikics, foreword by Phillip Lopate. c. 2012, was part of last summer's reading program (2024).
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