Thursday, April 4, 2019

US Crude Oil Imports From Venezuela Increased Year-Over-Year, January, 2019, Data

See this link.

In thousands of bbls.

Year-over-year, US crude oil imported from Venezuela increased. Just saying. By 20%.

This Should Make Some Iowa Farmers Very, Very Happy -- April 4, 2019


April 20, 2019: from CNN -- data points --
  • China's production has fallen 10% this year (in line with original post in which production was anticipated to drop to 51 million tonnes from 55 million tonnes)
  • China normally accounts for 49% of global pork consumption
  • apparently in the US, wholesale prices have risen, but retail prices have remained stable (yes, lots of competition in the US at the retail level; and, many alternatives to chicken)
  • from the linked article, last year (2018):
    • China produced 54.8 million metric tones of pork
    • consumed nearly 60 million metric tons
    • the delta (consumed/produced) not particularly remarkable
I remain unconvinced that we will see much impact in the US for the average Costco shopper.

Original Post

Quick: what country consumes the most pork? Oh, that's too easy. Let's start with this. On a per capita basis which country consumes the most pork. LOL. If you get the correct answer without looking it up, you either raise hogs or you need to get a life. The answer is here. Per capita, the US is only #8.

This I find most amazing. Think about it. China is #4. That's per capita. And there are a  lot of "per capita" Chinese. Like a billion or so.

So, now back to the original question: what country consumes the most pork? See this Reuters article from 2017.
China still consumes a lot more meat than any other country. People here will eat about 74 million tonnes of pork, beef and poultry this year, around twice as much as the United States, according to U.S. agriculture department estimates. More than half of that is pork and for foreign producers it has been a big growth market, especially for Western-style packaged meats.
China produces a lot of their own pork.
But, just saying ...

Just saying ...

What would happen if "swine flu" were to hit China?

Well, apparently it did. The article was sent to me by a reader -- again, from Reuters -- China's pork imports to double in 2019 as swine fever hits local output

I don't know what you think, but I think this is a huge, huge deal.
China’s 2019 pork imports are set to double from last year to 2 million tonnes, a Rabobank analyst said on Thursday, as African swine fever hits production of the meat in the world’s top hog market.  
China has reported 113 outbreaks of the contagious disease since last August, though farmers and industry insiders say several outbreaks are going unreported.
African swine fever, which does not harm humans, has a high mortality rate in pigs and has no vaccine or cure.
Chinese pork production will fall by up to 20 percent in 2019. China typically accounts for around half the world’s output of the meat.
That means local production this year of between 50 million and 51 million tonnes, Tjakra told Reuters on the sidelines of the event, down from last year’s 54 million to 55 million tonnes. 
It appears the headline is a bigger bark than the actual bite -- Chinese production will go from 55 million tonnes to 50 million tonnes (at worse).

Iowa should easily make up the shortfall.

It's a good thing Chinese-Trump trade talks appear to be coming to an end.

Reason #1 Why I Love To Blog -- A Reader Explains MRO's Lower Number Of Stages -- April 4, 2019

Earlier today I asked if anyone was paying attention? I was unable to explain why MRO is consistently fracking with fewer stages (and therefore [?] less sand).

A reader who has provided many insightful and helpful comments over the years sends this explanation.
Regarding MRO's lower stage count ... the March issue from American Oil and Gas Reporter ( contains an outstanding piece targeting Oasis' Elkhorn Field in the Bakken for a look into cutting edge fracturing/completion practices. The full link:

I have read the uber wonky piece twice and will need further reading in attempting to 'get' what is occurring, but - essentially - operators are maintaining 1,500/2,000 psi pressure between the wellbore's 'edge' (entry point into the formation) and the ever-expanding fracture tip. 
This is accomplished by the precise placement and number of entry points (clusters) and employing diverters (temporary plugs) in order to contain the frac (vertically and horizontally) while maintaining a very high pressure.

The effective accomplishment produces a VERY rubbilized (sic) formation within a tightly constrained area.  This essentially is what Mark Papa has always sought.

Liberty Resources is a leading innovator in this regard and has some papers online discussing this approach.
Incredibly the full article is accessible without hitting a paywall. To be safe, I've archived it.

The buzz-phrase in the last six months has been the "problem" with "parent-child" interference. This article also addresses that issue.

This is an incredibly important article for those trying to better understand the Bakken.

A huge "thank you" to the reader for sending this. It truly made my day. Best article all day. All week? Maybe.

I believe Mark Papa (former CEO of EOG) is now CEO of Centennial Resource Development:
Centennial Resource Development, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of unconventional oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas reserves in the United States.
The company’s assets primarily focus on the Delaware Basin, a sub-basin of the Permian Basin. Its properties consist of acreage blocks primarily in Reeves County in West Texas and Lea County in New Mexico. As of December 31, 2018, it leased or acquired approximately 80,223 net acres; and owned 1,597 net mineral acres in the Delaware Basin. The company was formerly known as Silver Run Acquisition Corporation and changed its name to Centennial Resource Development, Inc. in October 2016.
From Bloomberg:
Mr. Mark G. Papa has been the Chief Executive Officer at Centennial Resource Development, Inc., (Formerly, Silver Run Acquisition Corporation) since November 2015 and has been its Chairman since October 12, 2016. 

Story Of The Week For Williston's Friends Of The Furry And Feathered -- April 4, 2019

I remember blogging about this years ago, when the idea was first floated (back in 2016?). Now, up and running.

Link here.

The facility is named after one of my dad's closest friends. My dad talked about Buck a lot and what an incredibly good man he was. I don't think my dad met Buck until they both were well late into life.

The Buck Sheele Family Animal Center is located at 6207 First Avenue West across from Spring Lake Park in Williston.

Active Rigs In North Dakota Back To 62; Thirteen New Permits; RimRock With Permits For An 8-Well Pad -- April 4, 2019

Active rigs:
Active Rigs6256493094

Thirteen new permits:
  • Operators: RimRock (8); Newfield (5)
    Fields: Mandaree (Dunn); South Tobacco Garden (McKenzie)
  • Comments: 
    • RimRock has permits for an 8-well Two Shields Butte/Skunk Creek pad in section 24-149-93 in Mandaree oil field
    • Newfield has permits for a 5-well Schneiderman pad in section 20-150-99 in South Tobacco Garden; 
Three permits renewed:
  • NP Resources: three Gracie State permits, Billings County.

Basketball, Rush, And Pteranodons -- April 4, 2019, T+92, Part 9

NIT: Texas vs Lipscomb. Really? Really. For. The. Championship. Tonight.

  • #1 on conservative talk radio
  • maybe #1 on radio
  • right, wrong, indifferent: he is the best at what he does
  • "talks" only at the "presidential" level; may occasionally get to Pelosi, Schumer, but for most part, one needs to be president or running for president to get his attention on the radio
  • unlike most hosts on conservative talk radio, can do it all by himself; takes very few callers, and when he does, very limited time with the callers
  • can talk almost in a monologue for three hours -- more than anyone else, on either side of the aisle
  • knows the "opposition" so well, can predict the news story of the day
  • has an incredible sense of humor of which most non-Rush listeners are unaware
  • it takes a new listener six weeks to six months to "warm up" to Rush
  • three hours long, but each hour is pretty much a carbon copy of the other two; doesn't matter which hour one hears
  • commercials at the top of the hour and the bottom of the hour last "forever"; an opportunity to swithc to music for a nice interlude
Word for the day: pteranodon --
Pteranodon ( pteron, "wing") (anodon, "toothless") is a genus of pterosaur that included some of the largest known flying reptiles, with wingspans over 26 feet. They lived during the late Cretaceous geological period of North America in present-day Kansas, Alabama, Nebraska, Wyoming, and South Dakota. More fossil specimens of Pteranodon have been found than any other pterosaur, with about 1,200 specimens known to science, many of them well preserved with nearly complete skulls and articulated skeletons. It was an important part of the animal community in the Western Interior Seaway (see below).

Pteranodon were pterosaurs, not dinosaurs. By definition, all dinosaurs belong to one of the two groups within Dinosauria, i.e. Saurischia or Ornithischia. As such, this excludes pterosaurs. Nonetheless, Pteranodon are frequently featured in dinosaur media and are strongly associated with dinosaurs by the general public. While not dinosaurs, they form a sister clade to dinosaurs within the clade Avemetatarsalia.
Unlike these other reptiles, pterosaurs are nonetheless more closely related to birds and dinosaurs than to crocodiles or any other living reptile. Pterosaurs are also colloquially referred to as pterodactyls, particularly in fiction and by journalists. However, technically, pterodactyl only refers to members of the genus Pterodactylus, and more broadly to members of the suborder Pterodactyloidea of the pterosaurs.
Avemetatarsalia (meaning "bird metatarsals") is a clade name established by British palaeontologist Michael Benton in 1999 for all crown group archosaurs that are closer to birds than to crocodilians
An alternate name is Pan-Aves, or "all birds", in reference to its definition containing all animals, living or extinct, which are more closely related to birds than to crocodilians.  
Almost all avemetatarsalians are members of a similarly defined subgroup, Ornithodira. Ornithodira is defined as the last common ancestor of dinosaurs and pterosaurs, and all of its descendants.Members of this group include the Dinosauromorpha, Pterosauromorpha, the genus Scleromochlus, and Aphanosauria.  
Dinosauromorpha contains more basal forms, including Lagerpeton and Marasuchus, as well as more derived forms, including dinosaurs.  
Birds belong to the dinosaurs as members of the theropods. Pterosauromorpha contains Pterosauria, which were the first vertebrates capable of true flight. Aphanosauria is a Triassic group of gracile carnivorous quadrupeds which was recognized in 2017.
So, if I read this correctly, modern birds are dinosaurs, belonging to the dinosaurs as members of the theropods.

Meanwhile, the flying "birds" during the Cretaceous were flying reptiles, not flying dinosaurs.

Freudian: putting a "Rush" post on a post with reptiles, dinosaurs. LOL.

Hell Creek Formation
The Day (The Hour?) The Dinosaurs Died

At this link, one can "see" the ten most exciting "dinosaur finds" in Hell Creek formation. 

The ten "finds" and where they can be seen today:
1. Tyrannosaurus rex: American Museum of Natural History, New York, 1908
2. Tyrannosaurus rex: Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC, 1988
3. Torosaurus latus, Milwaukee Public Museum, Milwaukee, WI, 1981
4. Nanotyrannus lancensis, Burpee Museum of Natural History, Rockford, IL, 2003
5. Edmontosaurus annectens, North Dakota Heritage Center, Bismarck, ND, 1999
6. Tyrannosaurus rex, Black Hills Institute of Geological Research, Hill City, SD, 1987
7. Pachycephalosaurus wyomingensis, National Museum of Nature & Science, Tokyo, Japan, 1995
8. Anzu wyliel, Carnegi Museum of Natural History, Pittsburg, PA, 1998
9. Thescelosaurus neglectus, North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences, Raleigh, NC, 1993
10, Tyrannosaurus rex, Field Museum of Natural History, Chicago, IL, 1990

There's Something Going On -- April 4, 2019, T+92, Part 8

... and I think it can be traced all the way back to Venezuela....

From Drudge today, ... and not a thing from the man who should know best how to manage this, Beto O'Rourke -- after all, this is happening in his home town ... things starting to implode?

Flashback (no link): after Trump became president and started talking about the "wall, "Texas landowners along the Mexican border were ambivalent. Likewise, Texas came within one or two points of electing an open-borders advocate to be one of two US senators for the state.
That told me all I needed to know. 

Except for conservative talk radio here in north Texas no one seems to be impressed with the surge.

The "surge," of course, for Texas is a temporary problem. Most of the new folks will:
  • blend into and become part of the existing and successful Hispanic communities throughout south Texas, north to San Antonio
  • the rest will take the "underground railroad" to New York, Minnesota, and Iowa
This will be fascinating to watch.

At the end of the day, there will be a huge (positive) financial impact on the state as federal and state funds are released to assist the refugees. I'm waiting for the New Yorker to write an article comparing the great immigration waves coming to America over the last two centuries. At the end of the day, does it matter whether they came through Ellis Island legally or through El Paso illegally?

Coming To America, Neil Diamond

MRO Wells Of Interest In The Killdeer Oil Field -- April 4, 2019

A reader's note to me suggests it might be interesting to follow up on this area in about six months.

The graphic:

  • #34763, March 27, 2019: placed on the "confidential wells plugged or producing." The well was placed on that list about three days after it had moved 50 feet to begin drilling the next well.
Wells in the graphic:
  • 14962, a Duperow (2000)/Madison (2001) well; still active, reporting from the Madison; the Red River was dry; Duperow, 1,080; Madison, 80, Leland Oil & Gas, LLC, Davis State 34-36, Killdeer, t5/01; cum 11K (Madison); 35K (Duperow); off line since 11/18;
Of interest:
  • 34763, conf (ROS), MRO, Danner 14-36H, Killdeer,
  • 34764, conf, MRO, Jocelyn 14-36TFH, Killdeer,
  • 34765, conf, MRO, Kinney 24-36TFH, Killdeer,

  • 35175, conf (ROS), MRO, State Eggert 24-36H, Killdeer,
  • 35176, conf, MRO, State Eileen 34-36TFH, Killdeer,
  • 35177, conf, MRO, State Elias 34-36TFH, Killdeer,
  • 35178, conf, MRO, State Etta 44-36H, Killdeer,

  • 35526, conf, MRO, Twen 44-36TFH, Killdeer,
  • 35525, conf, MRO, Hayes 14-31H, Killdeer,
  • 33524, conf, MRO, Mason 14-31TFH, Killdeer,

Is Anyone Paying Attention? -- April 4, 2019

From twitter today:
Anyone paying attention? MRO fracking with fewer stages; smaller amounts of proppant than most; big story not being reported.
Note the two MRO wells that came off the confidential list today.
  • 33667, 2,555, MRO, Dutton USA 21-1TFH, Reunion Bay, 45 stages; 6.6 million lbs, t2/19; cum 30K after 23 days;
  • 33666, 3,259, MRO, Deserly USA 11-1TFH, Reunion Bay, 45 stages; 7.4 million lbs, t2/19; cum 38K after 23 days; 
Completion strategies are tracked here.

I'm waiting for an RBN Energy story comparing completion strategies in the Permian with those in the Bakken. Anecdotally, it appears to me that it takes a lot less sand to complete a well in the Bakken compared to the Permian.

April 4, 2019, T+92, Part 8 -- Atchafalaya, Pipelines, Woodpeckers, Tupelo Honey, And All That Jazz

Lots of chatter the past week about Washington State likely to make it difficult/impossible for Bakken CBR to get to Pacific Northwest. We're talking maybe 150,000 bopd. Doesn't bother me a bit. Inconsequential.

Now this, from a reader: Bayou Bridge Pipeline is now complete, after years of controversy. Data points:
  • the article was posted March 27, 2019
  • oil to start flowing "next week" -- that would be this week
  • ETP owns a majority of the pipeline; ETP will operate it
  • Phillips 66 Partners owns the rest, a 40% slice
  • environmentalists concerned about the Atchafalaya Basin
Oh, yes, now I remember this story. Courts found ETP guilty of illegal taking of land; required to pay $150 to each landowner who sued -- all three of them.

Wouldn't this be a hoot (no pun intended)? Wouldn't this be a hoot that a year or so from now, someone working along the pipeline route -- now that the area is more accessible -- spots a pair of mating ivory-billed woodpeckers? LOL. See this link for story, from January 25, 2017.

Now back at-cha, the Atchafalaya Basin:
The basin is the largest wetland and swamp in the United States. Located in south central Louisiana, it is a combination of wetlands and river delta area where the Atchafalaya River and the Gulf of Mexico converge. The river stretches from near Simmesport in the north through parts of eight parishes to the Morgan City southern area.

The Atchafalaya is different among Louisiana basins because it has a growing delta system with wetlands that are almost stable. The basin contains about 70% forest habitat and about 30% marsh and open water. It contains the largest contiguous block of forested wetlands remaining (about 35%) in the lower Mississippi River valley and the largest block of floodplain forest in the United States.
Best known for its iconic cypress-tupelo swamps, at 260,000 acres (110,000 ha), this block of forest represents the largest remaining contiguous tract of coastal cypress in the US. 
My hunch: there is oil under that Basin. Time to start drilling. LOL. 

Wow, I need to get back on the road.

Speaking of Louisiana


I hadn't thought about Louisiana Creole in a long time until May and I celebrated our recent wedding anniversary at Copeland's Famous New Orleans Restaurant here in Southlake, TX.

[As a reminder: for May's birthdays, we celebrate for seven days; for our wedding anniversary, five days -- this year we added a sixth day to our wedding anniversary celebration; one of the six days was at Copeland's. A sixth day was added because one of the original five days conflicted with another family commitment.]

Now, I'm reading The Language Instinct: How The Mind Creates Language, by Steven Pinker, c. 1994.

I finally understand the concept / definitions of pidgin and creole. Fascinating.


The honey that never crystallizes?

From Kitchn:
For example, did you know that Tupelo honey is the only honey that will not crystallize? And the because of the specific ratio of different sugars, it’s the only honey diabetics can eat? [Actually diabetics can eat anything, but that's not what the author meant.]
Right this minute, some very busy honeybees are feasting on Tupelo trees in Florida and Georgia, taking in as much as they can in the short blooming season from late April to May.
The production of Tupelo honey is not easy. Beehives have to be moved to the groves of Tupelo trees, which grow along four rivers in northwest Florida and southern Georgia.
The trees only blossom for three to four weeks, so beekeepers truck their hives right into the thick of it to get the best honey. The article we read, in Garden & Gun magazine, was about George Watkins, a beekeeper in the Florida panhandle, who loads his hives onto a barge and moves them up the river so that his bees can work deep in the tupelo groves. Watkins was even a consultant on the film Ulee’s Gold, with Peter Fonda, which is all about harvesting Tupelo honey.
So, apparently, the tupelo trees are also found in Louisiana, in the Atchafalaya swamps -- and I can now type that without looking up the spelling.

Tupelo trees/honey:
Tupelos of the species Nyssa ogeche are valued as honey plants in the southeastern United States, particularly in the Gulf Coast region.
They produce a very light, mild-tasting honey.
In Florida, beekeepers keep beehives along the river swamps on platforms or floats during tupelo bloom to produce certified tupelo honey, which commands a high price on the market because of its flavor.
Monofloral honey made from the nectar of Nyssa ogeche has such a high ratio of fructose to glucose that it does not crystallize.
The Apalachicola River in the Florida Panhandle is the center for tupelo honey. The honey is produced wherever tupelo trees (three species) bloom in southeastern USA, but the purest and most expensive version (which is certified by pollen analysis) is produced in this valley. In a good harvest year, the tupelo honey crop produced by a group of specialized Florida beekeepers has a value approaching $1,000,000.
 Time to move on.

April 4, 2019, T+92, Part 7


Later, 3:08 p.m. Central Time, from The New York Post --
Democratic darling Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez still hasn’t paid a six-year-old tax bill left over from a failed business venture. Weeks after The Post alerted the freshman Congresswoman’s office to the outstanding tax lien from 2012, she still hasn’t paid it, state records show. Brook Avenue Press, a company set up in the Bronx to publish books about city children, owes $1,877.56 in unpaid corporate taxes.   
Original Post
I had to look this up. Link here. A credit score and what it means:
  • 740 - 799: a consumer is generally financially responsible when it comes to money and credit management. Most of their payments, including loans, credit cards, utilities and rental payments, are made on time
  • 670 - 739: places a borrower near or slightly above the average of U.S. consumers, as the national average FICO score is 704 as of September 2018. While they may still earn competitive interest rates, they are unlikely to command the ideal rates of those in the two higher categories
  • 580 - 669: in the “fair” or “average” category. They may have some dings on their credit history, but there are no major delinquencies. 
  • under 580:  significantly damaged credit history. This may be the result of multiple defaults on different credit products from several different lenders. However, a poor score may also be the result of a bankruptcy, which will remain on a credit record for up to 10 years
Holy mackerel.

Under 580, a "significantly damaged credit history."

Had I been asked, I would have said "her" credit rating was probably around the US average. Never would have I thought below "average."

But now, a credit rating of 500 would have looked good.

Anyone wanna bet "her" credit rating goes to 750 or better a year from now?

Remember: this is the lady that cost her constituents the biggest prize of the early 21st century -- Amazon's HQ2.

The dots all sort of connect, don't they?

April 4, 2019, T+92, Part 6 -- Ford, Making America Great Again

From "Global Data" this morning:
US will contribute 95% of North America’s new-build underground gas storage capacity growth by 2023, says GlobalData. 
The US will drive growth in North America’s new-build underground gas storage industry between 2019 and 2023, contributing around 95% of the working gas capacity growth in the region, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Ford, playing to win, link here. From the AP so you know it's not fake news. LOL -- it's "billed as an AP story -- in fact it's a press release. And there's no story there, just a headline. The "story" re-directs you to the linked press release. Obviously a robot invovled. LOL.  And then it took a second link to get to the full story. Data points:
  • Ford truck and van sales up 4.1% quarter-over-quarter
  • Ford-brand SUV sales up 3.5%; set Q1 record
  • but look at this -- remember, Lincoln is Ford's money-maker -- up 11.2% -- Lincoln's best start in more than a decade
  • F is up about a percent today but still selling at $9 with a P/E of 10
  • compare TSLA: $270/share; with a P/E of --- never mind
From Ford:
  • F-150 and Super Duty combined sales outstripped nearest competitor by almost 100,000 trucks
    • trucks sales 15,939 higher than last year
    • average transaction price for F-Series: nearly $50K
  • Ranger returns; with overall pickup sales, best quarter for pickup sales in 15 years 
    • even before optimum inventory levels later this year
  • Flash: Elon Musk -- all hat, no cattle
  • even ahead of new Explorer and Escape launches, Ford-brand SUVs set first-quarter sales record
    • almost 200,000 vehicles
  • but look at this, Ford's money-maker, the Expedition: up 62% with 22,000 Expeditions sold
Flash: Elon Musk -- all hat, no cattle.

Flash: I doubt Ford was the only manufacturer to show nice results. If so, this speaks volumes about the health of the US (global?) economy.

Flash: add another reason why the market is surging.

Oh, that's right. Some gossip that Chinese-Trump trade talks soon to wrap up. Wanna bet the Chinese were slow-rolling Trump waiting until the Mueller report was released?

April 4, 2019, T+92, Part 5

Note first comment re: CBR, Bakken oil, and Washington State. The link is here

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

So, with the jobs data, how is the market -- before the opening -- doing?

Let's look, shall we?
  • Dow, futures: absolutely flat. Went from +5 to -1.
  • WTI: $62.67
  • Tesla: down $31/share; down almost 11%
With today's great news:
  • Adam Schiff will be holding a "thank you" reception for President Trump in the US House
  • Elizabeth Warren will be holding a special rally for President Trump in Ohio
  • Joe Biden will be giving someone a hug -- just to say "thank you" for working
Thirty (?) Reasons Why The Market Is Surging

See this link from one year ago, February 26, 2018. At that link:
However, some time ago, I presented "sixteen reasons" why the market was surging then. I then followed it up with "eight more reasons" why the market would continue to surge. I then added "another reason."

I am now going to add "five more reasons" why the market will continue to surge.

I have no idea how many of those reasons are still in play. I do know that US jobless claims fall to 49-year low. Some other observations:
  • most voters were not yet born when the old record was made
  • most millennials have no idea how good "we" have it
  • not one voter today is subject to the draft
  • more than enough new workers surging across the southern border to mitigate the "Bloomberg labor shortage"
  • all those workers, whether they pay taxes or not, pay into social security 
the Dow is up 150 points in early trading.

Sixteen Reasons, Connie Francis, "Mulholland Drive"

April 4, 2019, T+92, Part 4 -- National Burrito Day

The Bloomberg slant? Two takeaways (see article below):
  • the labor market continues to tighten
  • firms added the fewest workers in March since 2017, potentially signaling some weakness
With regard to the latter (fewest workers added since March 2017), Bloomberg apparently had no idea how to put that into context.

With regard to the former, the labor market continues to tighten, thank goodness for all those new arrivals on the southern border. Seriously. Mechanisms are in place to get these folks hired in the construction industry, the landscaping business, the fast food sector as quickly as possible.

Link here. Nope, no burritos. Jobless report.

From the linked article:
Filings for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell, dropping to the lowest since December 1969, as the labor market tightened further.

Jobless claims decreased to 202,000 in the week ended March 30, below all economist forecasts, Labor Department figures showed Thursday. The four-week average, a less-volatile measure, declined to 213,500, the lowest since October.

The surprising drop in claims is an indication that the labor market continued to tighten, with employers holding onto workers and loathe to let them go. The level of continuing claims, which had moved up in recent months, fell the most since November in the week ended March 23.

At the same time, the ADP Research Institute said this week that firms added the fewest workers in March since 2017, potentially signaling some weakness. [What did you expect? This is a Bloomberg article.]

A Bloomberg survey of economists had forecast a gain of 215,000.

The Key To A Zero-Carbon Footprint -- Import All Your Electricity -- April 4, 2019, T+92, Part 3 -- Tesla


Later, 9:27 p.m. Central Time: does anyone really read this stuff? Is anyone at CNN even editing this stuff. TSLA plunges nearly 11% at the opening this morning on incredibly bad "sales" report. By the end of the day, it had recovered a bit, closing down "only" 7%. But look how CNN reports it: saying that the very disappointing sales figures "did not come as a shock." LOL. Imagine how far Tesls would have fallen had the sales data been a surprise. LOL. Link here:

Original Post

Tesla US delivery data for March, 2019. Link here
  • Model 3:
    • March: 10,175
    • February: 5,750
  • Model X:
    • March: 2,175
    • February: 900
  • Model S:
    • March: 2,275
    • February: 625
So, for the US, a good month. I'm seeing a lot more Teslas in the Southlake, Texas, area. I can count on (no pun intended) that I will see at least three Teslas each day while driving the granddaughters to school and their various extracurricular activities. Almost all of them are sedans; I seldom see a Model X.

Everything below was previously posted.

So, how is the BIG STORY of the day playing out? Tesla's first quarter deliveries plummet! I assume those folks who bought at the close yesterday wished they had to waited until this morning to buy. Whatever.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

From The WSJ:
Tesla Inc. said new-vehicle deliveries in the first quarter fell 31% from the previous three months as the electric car maker strained to ship its Model 3 compact car to Europe and China for the first time.
The Silicon Valley auto maker delivered about 63,000 vehicles in the latest period, worse than analysts’ already-lowered expectations.
Analysts on average had predicted deliveries would drop to 73,500, according to FactSet, a figure reflecting total deliveries of Model 3, Model S and Model X vehicles.
Tesla books its sales when a car is delivered. Concerns of a slow start to 2019 have raised questions about the company’s ability to deliver on ambitious sales targets after it struggled for nearly two years to increase production of the Model 3, its lowest-priced vehicle. Tesla had slashed the Model 3’s starting price three times during the quarter, finally reaching its long-promised base of $35,000, suggesting to some analysts that demand for more-expensive versions had plateaued.
So, what was the problem this time?
Last quarter was the first sales period for Tesla after the phaseout of U.S. tax credits went into effect, dropping to $3,750 from $7,500 for buyers. It eventually goes away next year.
On Wednesday, Tesla attributed the slowdown to challenges associated with taking the Model 3 overseas for the first time, noting it had only delivered half of the entire quarter’s vehicles 10 days before the period ended.
The company cautioned that lower-than-expected sales volumes along with several price cuts would negatively affect first-quarter income. It said it planned to end the quarter with “sufficient cash on hand.”
David Whiston, an analyst at Morningstar Research Services, said the Model 3 “should bounce back in Q2 if the transition challenges to delivering in Europe and China are behind them.”

The Key To A Zero-Carbon Footprint -- Import All Your Electricity -- April 4, 2019, T+92, Part 2

Graphic of the day:

Thursday, April 4, 2019, T+92 -- The Story That Will Dominate Business News Today -- Tesla

92nd day of the new Congress, update on accomplishments, bills introduced, bills passed:

And we move on. Both parties in the US House of Representatives agree -- time to raise the federal gasoline and diesel tax.

Jobs report today. Several reports coming out this week -- first, unemployment data today and employment data tomorrow (Friday). Regarding the employment report coming out tomorrow, economists expect hiring rise, wage gains in March jobs report. Link here. Lots of great graphics at the linked article. I wonder if folks remember that the February data showed that the US had an increase of only 20,000 jobs in February. I'm sure that's accurate but it certainly seems laughable. I wonder if the statisticians are counting all the folks working on new highways in Texas? Forecast, March data:
  • 175,000: the number of jobs added by employers in February
  • 3.8%: unemployment rate (which would be no change)
WSJ headlines: conglomerate? cartel? collusion? The Berkshire empire is quietly collaborating more than ever. Rise in communication among senior leaders offers glimpse at future of conglomerate when Warren Buffett no longer runs it.
Top executives from Berkshire units now gather regularly to share strategies and best practices. Some of these companies participate in purchasing cohorts to take advantage of group rates for items like travel and raw materials. Last year, employees from more than 40 Berkshire businesses met in the firm’s headquarters city of Omaha, NE, to discuss sustainability.
Tesla data posted. Link here.

So, how is the BIG STORY of the day playing out? Tesla's first quarter deliveries plummet! I assume those folks who bought at the close yesterday wished they had to waited until this morning to buy. Whatever.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

Five Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- April 4, 2019

Global warming: I know I will be complaining about the heat when summer finally gets here, but wow, this winter seems to be lingering. Where is all that global warming we've been promised? LOL. It's actually quite nice in north Texas, reaching 70 degrees in the late afternoon but it is certainly cool in the mornings and the wind makes it feel colder. Whatever.

Deplorable science: again, the "deplorable climate science blog" has some great information today. Again, this is a global warming skeptic site.

Colorado: sayonara.  
Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, April 4, 2019: 19 wells for the month; 19 wells for the quarter
  • 35516, SI/NC, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-5-8-12H, Siverston, no production data, 
  • 35500, SI/NC, RimRock Oil & Gas, MC MHA 24-10-2TFH, Moccasin Creek, no production data,
  • 34410, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dorothy 19-18-158N-98W MBH, Rainbow, no production data, 
  • 33667, 2,555, MRO, Dutton USA 21-1TFH, Reunion Bay, 45 stages; 6.6 million lbs, t2/19; cum 30K after 23 days;
  • 33666, 3,259, MRO, Deserly USA 11-1TFH, Reunion Bay, 45 stages; 7.4 million lbs, t2/19; cum 38K after 23 days;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6056493094

RBN Energy: net impacts of the TETCO gas pipeline outage, part 2.
Ten weeks after an explosion crippled a key natural gas takeaway route out of the Marcellus/Utica, the capacity finally has been fully restored.
Texas Eastern Transmission two days ago said it’s lifting all restrictions on the affected section of pipe. The outage began on January 21 and partial service resumed eight days later, but TETCO’s Northeast production receipts during the event averaged about 700 MMcf/d lower than usual and the line’s flows to the Gulf Coast were cut by 30-40%. That, along with two severe polar-vortex periods in January that overlapped with the outage, caused a reshuffling of flows across other pipelines in the region. Today, we wrap up this series with a look at the implications of the outage on the Northeast gas market and what to expect now that it’s ended.
Last fall we previewed a potential turning point in the Appalachian gas market, from the supply region being severely constrained for years to being well-connected with the ability to better balance its excess supply with outflows. As we’ve discussed extensively in the RBN blogosphere, takeaway constraints in the Marcellus/Utica producing region have for years been depressing local prices at regional trading hubs like Dominion South and Tennessee Zone 4/Marcellus, trading well below the national benchmark Henry Hub, even during the winter months when Northeast demand peaks. But a number of pipeline expansions came online in the summer and early fall of 2018, and pipeline utilization for flows out of the region seemed to suggest that takeaway capacity had finally caught up, with room to spare, at least for the time being. (We’ll come back to the specifics of that “spare capacity” in a future blog.)