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Wednesday, August 12, 2020

A Proxy For Something? -- August 12, 2020

I mentioned the OXY warrants earlier. 

From August 10, 2020:

ICYMI: OXY warrants.

Issued August 3, 2020, or thereabouts, to those with OXY, record date, July 6, 2020. Distribution announcement here.

Holders of Occidental common stock will receive 1/8th of a warrant for each share of common stock held as of the record date, and each warrant will entitle the holder to purchase one share of Occidental common stock for a purchase price of $22 per share. The distribution of the warrants will be made on August 3, 2020 to stockholders of record as of July 6, 2020. The warrants will have a term of seven years and Occidental expects to list the warrants on The New York Stock Exchange.

Come due in seven years for $22. Can exercise them any time between day of issue and 2027. By exercising your warrant, you can buy a common share of OXY for $22.

Currently trading under ticker symbol "OXY-WT" on NYSE for under $5.00.

SeekingAlpha articles frequently disappear behind a paywall, but as of tonight, this piece on OXY is still accessible. 

Today's graphic, link here (this site is also linked at the sidebar at the right):

*************************************
CalPERS

CalPERS has been much in the news lately with the sudden exit of its director, a Chinese sympathizer, from August 10, 2020: Meng's mysterious exit. 

Now this:

California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) disclosed Wednesday that it more than doubled its shares stakes in Gilead Sciences Inc. and Zoom Video Communications Inc., both of which have been beneficiaries of the COVID-19 pandemic, while it rebalanced its holdings of technology-behemoths Apple Inc. AAPL, and Microsoft Corp. by trimming its stakes during the second quarter. 
As of June 30, the pension fund owned 10,528,157 million shares of Gilead, which makes COVID-19 vaccine candidate remdesivir, up from 4,353,093 shares as of March 31, while its Zoom Video stake increased to 341,358 shares from 61,070 shares. 
Among other companies with COVID-19 vaccine candidates, the stake in Moderna Inc. increased to 599,997 shares from 449,100 shares and the Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. holding nearly doubled to 322,441 shares from 176,365 shares. 
CalPERS trimmed its stakes in Apple to 9,171,757 shares from 10,190,498 shares and in Microsoft to 16,850,303 shares from 17,404,566 shares. Meanwhile, given the rallies in the stocks, the market value of CalPERS holding in Apple increased to $3.35 billion as of June 30 from $2.59 billion as of March 31, while the value of the Microsoft shares it held rose to $3.43 billion from $2.74 billion. 
The overall market value of CalPERS's equity holdings increased 22.7% to $101.41 billion, while the S&P 500 SPX, +1.40% gained 20.0% in the second quarter.

Posted by Bruce Oksol at 11:10 PM No comments:
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A Closer Look At Two Incredible DUCs Reported By MRO -- August 12, 2020

 I don't know if folks are following how really good these Bakken wells are doing. I don't follow the Permian, but based on the EIA dashboards my hunch is that mano a mano, the Bakken wells are beating every other onshore well out there. Look at the two DUCs reported as completed by MRO today:

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

36336, drl/A, MRO, Caleb 44-32TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 162K over four months; 7.8 million gallons of water, a moderate-size frack; water by percent mass not provided by FracFocus for some reason?

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20202934830345682552052094487071291
BAKKEN5-20203133664337453000141359377911565
BAKKEN4-20202934915347913117436741034647
BAKKEN3-20203158546582577005865225061820
BAKKEN2-2020213989282800

36337 drl/A, MRO, Naatus USA 14-33H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 206K over four months; 6.2 million gallons of water, a moderately-small frack; water by percent mass not provided by FracFocus for some reason? and then a second larger frack: 9.6 million gallons of water; water by percent mass, again, not provided by FracFocus: frack data not yet scanned in by NDIC; #17502, Mark Sandstrom 14-32H was the reference well, located about 3000' west from this well's location; #17502 is off line. production profile for #36337:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20202932525324711883552493494461075
BAKKEN5-20203148310482922595064690594832311
BAKKEN4-20202939927398773036043495236738736
BAKKEN3-20203182965835246820673293068521
BAKKEN2-20203287018312859214101962


17502, 637, MRO, Mark Sandstrom 14-32H, Reunion Bay, t12/08; cum 546K 2/20; off line 3/20; remains off line 6/20; open hole frack; apparently, according to FracFocus this well was refracked in the summer of 2014 with 1.6 million gallons of water; water was 85.4% by mass;

The graphics:



Even without considering how "huge" the Naatus was, there is a lot of work yet to be done in the Bakken in general and in this area specifically.

Wells inside the circle:

  • 37657, loc, MRO, Medicine Crow USA 21-5H, Reunion Bay,
  • 37656, loc, MRO, Howling Wolf USA 31-5TFH, Reunion Bay,
  • 37655, loc, MRO, Joba USA 31-5H, Reunion Bay,
  • 37654, loc, MRO, Albert USA 31-5TFH, Reunion Bay, 

Of interest:

  • 20287, 1,244, MRO, Johnson 44-32H, Reunion Bay, t10/11; cum 326K 12/19; off line1/20; remains off line 6/20;
Posted by Bruce Oksol at 9:17 PM No comments:
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Three New Permits; MRO Reports A Monster DUC -- August 12, 2020

Active rigs:

$42.60
8/12/202008/12/201908/12/201808/12/201708/12/2016
Active Rigs1161605733

Three new permits, #37783 - #37785, inclusive:

  • Operator: XTO
  • Field: Hofflund (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • XTO has permits for a three-well Roust pad in SWSE 7-154-95;
    • 239' FSL and about 1400' FEL

Seven permits renewed:

  • XTO (6): two Lyla permits; two Roberta permits; two Abby Federal permits; all in Williams County;
  • Enerplus: one Iron permit in Williams County

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 32071, SI/A, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34AXD, North Fork, t--; cum --;
  • 36336, drl/A, MRO, Caleb 44-32TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 162K over four months; see this note:
  • 36337 drl/A, MRO, Naatus USA 14-33H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 206K over four months; s; see this note: look at this early production; some early Bakken wells didn't produce 80K bbls of crude oil in the first year, much less in one month:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20202932525324711883552493494461075
BAKKEN5-20203148310482922595064690594832311
BAKKEN4-20202939927398773036043495236738736
BAKKEN3-20203182965835246820673293068521
BAKKEN2-20203287018312859214101962
Posted by Bruce Oksol at 8:59 PM No comments:
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Biden/Harris ISO New England Plan; Gasoline Demand -- August 12, 2020

 Gasoline demand, link here, not looking good:

ISO New England, link here, the Biden/Harris plan:


Posted by Bruce Oksol at 8:49 PM No comments:
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Labels: GasolineDemand

Notes From All Over -- Late Afternoon Edition -- "3386" -- August 12, 2020

3386: the number the S&P "needs" to set an all-time record. Later: new record.

Big story: with regard to the market yesterday / today, the market was up by a huge amount going into the last trading hour when it collapsed. 

Today it came back stronger than ever, and now in the last hour of trading it looks like it will hold. So, what happened? Yesterday the market was on a tear until Mitch McConnell, near the market close, said "stimulus" talks were at a stalemate. Today, it appears no one cares about Mitch McConnell's statement. Instead, it was Tesla, announcing a 5 - 1 split. And then this: amazing how much time talking heads spend telling us that splits make no difference. They don't understand human behavior. By the way, if that is a correct reading, it suggests that the market likes the federal government spending money and/or sending large amounts of money back to its citizens. If so, the market should love Biden/Harris.

Stimulus talks: SecTreasury Mnuchin invited Schumer/Pelosi to meet with him. The latter said, "no." Hmmm......that speaks volumes. Let's see if that "stimulus stalemate" statement at 3:15 p.m. EDT, 44 minutes before the market closes, will cause the same market collapse it caused yesterday. 

[Rumor: Senator Schumer wants a pony for every American; Congresswoman Pelosi wants an ice cream freezer for each American. Trump just wants two chickens in every pot and funding for his bust on Mount Rushmore.]

Politics:

  • 2020 presidential election: investors are in a win-win situation; more on this later;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

The big fumble:

MarketWatch op-ed, linked from The WSJ: as Big Ten and Pac-12 cancel their football seasons because of Covid-19, college sports programs are facing a financial apocalypse.

    • Revenue is disappearing (not decreasing, but disappearing) but debt cots, fat coaching contracts are not;
    • it won't be just "college sports programs" but the entire college/university system; in fact, one begins to wonder how broad this setback could be

The Wizard of Oz strawmen: see this post over at PowerLine. I disagree. 

I can't speak for college students in general, but based on surveys reported over on sports-talk radio, the college football players wanted to play football this fall. It was the university lawyers that said, "no."

America's students are not cowardly (as PowerLine said); their leaders are. And we've seen this over and over and over. 

Egg shortage: remember that egg shortage early in the pandemic.

I did not understand it. I tried to explain it, as did readers. There may have been a relative shortage that lasted a few weeks, but it was quickly "fixed." One company, apparently, "fixed" it better than others. The NY attorney general is going after Hillandale Farms for price gouging during the "egg shortage." Google for link. 

Market: we'll know in a couple of hours whether the market sets any new records. It appears we would have had a significantly higher Dow close today except for Boeing. It accounts for most of the lag on the Dow.

  • 10 of 11 sectors lagged today; only sector lagging: banks
  • BA (Boeing: down 3%; down over $5/share
  • BK: down about a percent; down 31 cents
  • AAPL: up an astonishing $15; up over 3%; on no news that I could see; pulled up by Tesla?
  • SRE: up over 2%; up almost $3/share
  • but my favorite stock to watch right now, UNP: up about a percent; up $1.89; UNP hit an intra-day 52-week high; should close at an all-time high; 
  • QCOM: up over 6%; up almost $7; trading at $115.54; pays 2.39%

Economy:

  • everyone is calling this a recession; I think we need two consecutive quarters of negative growth, which, I think. means we have to wait one more quarter to officially call it a recession, but I could be wrong;
  • some are calling it a depression, and based on "wiki's" definition of a depression -- based on number of Americans out of work and length of that unemployment, an argument could be made that we are in a depression:
    • if so, SecTreasury and the Fed chairman deserve most of the credit for making the American economy look like neither a recession nor a depression; the US Congress deserves some credit, as does the president for distributing large amounts of money across the US;
  • most agree that "Main Street" will get worse before it gets better; we have yet to see mass closings of local mom-and-pop restaurants; permanent closures of many stores whose major revenue comes from mall locations; and, large-city-budget disasters; landlords could be in deep trouble but they are so "spread out" we may not hear about it until the data is aggregated by someone;
  • now, add in a few small cities, like South Bend, IN; College Station, TX; Iowa City, IA; Lincoln, NE; West Lafayette, IN; Eugene, OR; Corvallis, OR; and, Pullman, WA (all small towns that host Pac-12 or Big Ten football teams)
  • speaking of which: how do you think colleges and universities pay for their social science, art and music departments, and STEM courses? 
  • a double whammy for football-centric colleges and universities: empty dorms, empty cafeterias, empty bookstores (though they were already dying -- think Amazon); huge sources of revenue;
    • colleges and universities won't be able to increase tuition / fees when students are staying home, taking courses on-line
    • big donors see winning football programs as winning universities; look for donors cutting back;
  • but while "Main Street" gets worse, "Wall Street" continues to hit all kinds of records; whether "Main Street" eventually catches up with "Wall Street" (i.e., the market corrects bigly once large cities and small cities start failing) is an unknown;
  • I give it another six months but right now it appears Americans have really hunkered down; more money than ever is in savings; and credit card debt, at least until recently, is declining
    • credit card debt:
      • impulse buying: not happening
      • gasoline, automobile maintenance, auto insurance, in fact all auto-related expenses have come down dramatically
      • dining out: not happening
      • airline travel: not happening
      • after that, what do Americans use credit cards for?
  • when this is all said and done, it will be obvious (again) that a Republic or a federation of states make a lot more sense than one central national clearing house calling all the shots; 
  • bottom line: a sideways-Y shaped recovery; much of the economy will see a V-shaped recovery; but, much of the economy will reflect a relative flat-line "recovery"
Posted by Bruce Oksol at 2:04 PM No comments:
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Labels: Commentary_2020

Fracking: Errors In Reporting, Anomalies, Testing? -- August 12, 2020

We now have two interesting situations. 

In the first case, posted some time ago, FracFocus suggesting no sand was used in fracking these two wells (which I highly doubt):

  • #34601, $34602 -- no sand in these two fracks?

And now, three wells in which the water by mass was only 60%. Normally, water by mass ranges from 88% to 92%:

  • 35600, SI/NC, Enerplus, Alto 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 124K 6/20; did not shut down; however, only 24 days in 6/20; a 28K month; from Fracfocus: 5.6 million gallons of water, moderate (almost small) frack; fourteen days to frack; water: 59.99% by mass; if that's accurate, that's remarkable; generally, water by mass runs 87% to 92%;
  • 35599, SI/NC, Enerplus, Haze 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 141K 6/20; did not shut down; 29 days in 6/20; a 34K month; from Fracfocus: 8.3 million gallons of water, moderately large frack; fourteen days to frack; water: 60.57% by mass; if that's accurate, that's remarkable; generally, water by mass runs 87% to 92%;
  • 35598, SI/NC, Enerplus, Vapor 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 93K 6/20; did not shut down, but only 10 days in 6/20; a 33K month; from Fracfocus: 8.5 million gallons of water, moderately large frack; fourteen days to frack; water: 60.66% by mass; if that's accurate, that's remarkable; generally, water by mass runs 87% to 92%;
Posted by Bruce Oksol at 10:22 AM No comments:
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Labels: Bakken101, Fracking, Fracking_Sand, Fracking_Water

Incredible Wells Still Being Reported In The Bakken -- Note Small Amount Of Fracking Water Used By Enerplus -- August 12, 2020

Say what you want, these are incredible wells.

 Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

When looking at these numbers I am reminded of Oasis' decision to focus on the Permian rather than the Bakken, using the Bakken to provide necessary cash flow for Bakken operations. The decision was made when the Permian was all the range, acquisition costs were incredibly high, and shortly before Covid-19 and Saudi's decision to flood the world with oil for the second time in just a few years

These are the wells coming off the confidential list today.

 Wednesday, August 12, 2020: 40 for the month; 111 for the quarter, 557 for the year:

  • 36981, drl/TAI, CLR, LCU Truman 7-23H, Long Creek, no production data,
  • 36744, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26A, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 36421, SI/A, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 2TFH, Stony Creek, t--; cum 107K 6/20; did not shut down during 5/20;
  • 36350, drl/A, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-5, Alkali Creek, t--; cum 117K 6/20; did not shut down during 5/20; a 31K month;
  • 36159, drl/A, Hess, GO-Hauge-156-97-2116H-3, Dollar Joe, t--; cum 84K 6/20; shut in, 6/20; did not shut in during 5/20;
  • 35721, SI/A, Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 11-1 4B, Banks, t--; cum 121K 6/20; was not shut in; a 30K month;
  • 35600, SI/NC, Enerplus, Alto 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 124K 6/20; did not shut down; however, only 24 days in 6/20; a 28K month; from Fracfocus: 5.6 million gallons of water, moderate (almost small) frack; fourteen days to frack; water: 59.99% by mass; if that's accurate, that's remarkable; generally, water by mass runs 87% to 92%;
  • 35599, SI/NC, Enerplus, Haze 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 141K 6/20; did not shut down; 29 days in 6/20; a 34K month; from Fracfocus: 8.3 million gallons of water, moderately large frack; fourteen days to frack; water: 60.57% by mass; if that's accurate, that's remarkable; generally, water by mass runs 87% to 92%;
  • 35598, SI/NC, Enerplus, Vapor 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 93K 6/20; did not shut down, but only 10 days in 6/20; a 33K month; from Fracfocus: 8.5 million gallons of water, moderately large frack; fourteen days to frack; water: 60.66% by mass; if that's accurate, that's remarkable; generally, water by mass runs 87% to 92%;
*********************************************
Enerplus: Early Production Data

Note production for the Enerplus Haze well, #35600:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2020241909519081199782526723941573
BAKKEN5-2020312819128273300303300731120846
BAKKEN4-2020302623026053280032855427340787
BAKKEN3-2020302787828149322992787826911851
BAKKEN2-20201722956225074063522957205022348

Note production for the Enerplus Haze well, #35599:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2020292811727921196453703335033844
BAKKEN5-2020262290923027165762683225345687
BAKKEN4-2020292508424963173782735226196753
BAKKEN3-20203034055344352447034083329211022
BAKKEN2-20201730544299463388430544272783122

Note production for the Enerplus Haze well, #35598:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20201087678764104591155010997263
BAKKEN5-2020191320313356200391551414701396
BAKKEN4-2020302072820654288012263421674622
BAKKEN3-20202932590327333665232590312931168
BAKKEN2-20201717927175763674217927160111831
Posted by Bruce Oksol at 10:13 AM No comments:
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Labels: Fracking_Water

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- Gasoline Imports At A 53-Week High -- August 12, 2020

Updates, see comments:

About the only thing I found surprising was that gasoline imports were at a 53-week high, like we don't already have enough gasoline sloshing around.

Oh, and that reported 300,000 bpd decrease in production; i think it should have been an increase...hope they aren't overreacting to the mistake they made in May...

**********************************
Original Post

Link here.

  • US crude oil in storage: 514.1 million bbls, about 15% above the already fat five-year average;
  • US crude oil in storage decreased by a moderate 4.5 million bbls;
  • refiners are operating at 81.0% capacity, pretty much unchanged, but up slightly from last report:
  • US imported 5.6 million bopd, down by 389,000 bopd from previous week;
  • over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.7 million bpd, 20.4% less than the same four-week period last year;
  • total products supplied averaged 18.5 million bpd, down by 14.3% from same period last year
  • distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million bpd over the past four weeks; down by 9.3% from the same period last year
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.3 million bbls, but still an astounding 24% above the already fat five-year average for this time of the year;
  • jet fuel supplied was down 45.8% compared with same four-week period last year; about the same as previous report;
Crude oil re-balancing:

Week

Date of Report=

Change

Million Bbls Storage

Week 0

November 21, 2018

4.9

446.9

Week 1

November 28, 2018

3.6

450.5

Week 2

December 6, 2018

-7.3

443.2

Week 3

December 12, 2018

-1.2

442.0

Week 4

December 19, 2018

-0.5

441.5

Week 5

December 28, 2018

0.0

441.4

Week 76

May 20, 2020

-5.0

526.5

Week 77

May 28, 2020

7.9

534.4

Week 78

June 3, 2020

-2.1

532.3

Week 79

June 10, 2020

5.7

538.1

Week 80

June 17, 2020

1.2

539.3

Week 81

June 24, 2020

1.4

540.7

Week 82

July 1, 2020

-7.2

533.5

Week 83

July 8, 2020

5.7

539.2

Week 84

July 15, 2020

-7.5

531.7

Week 85

July 22, 2020

4.9

536.6

Week 86

July 29, 2020

-10.6

526.0

Week 87

August 5, 2020

-7.4

518.6

Week 88

August 12, 2020

-4.5

514.1

Imports:

Crude Oil Imports





Week (week-over-week)

Date of Report

Raw Data, millions of bbls

Change (millions of bbls)

Four-week period comparison

Week 0

March 11, 2029

6.4

0.174


Week 1

March 18, 2020

6.5

0.127


Week 2

March 25, 2020

6.1

-0.422


Week 3

April 1, 2020

6.0

-0.070


Week 4

April 8, 2020

5.9

-0.173


Week 5

April 15, 2020

5.7

-0.194


Week 6

April 22, 2020

5.6

-0.700


Week 7

April 29, 2020

5.3

0.365

-19.700%

Week 8

May 6, 2020

5.7

0.410


Week 9

May 13, 2020

5.4

-0.321

-26.100%

Week 10

May 20, 2020

5.2

-0.194


Week 11

May 28, 2020

7.2

2.000

-16.400%

Week 12

June 3, 2020

6.2

-1.000

-18.300%

Week 13

June 10, 2020

6.4

0.000

-13.300%

Week 14

June 17, 2020

6.6

-0.222

-10.000%

Week 15

June 24, 2020

6.5

-0.102

-11.600%

Week 16

July 1, 2020

6.5

-0.600

-11.300%

Week 17

July 8, 2020

7.4

1.400

-8.500%

Week 18

July 15, 2020

7.5

-1.800

-10.200%

Week 19

July 22, 2020

5.9

0.373

-13.500%

Week 20

July 29, 2020

5.1

-0.800

-13.600%

Week 21

August 5, 2020

6.0

0.900

-18.100%

Week 22

August 12, 2020

5.6

-0.389

-20.400%

Jet fuel:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week



Week

Date of Report

Change

Week 0

3/7/2020

-12.80%

Week 1

3/14/2020

-12.60%

Week 2

3/21/2020

-8.90%

Week 3

3/28/2020

-16.40%

Week 4

4/4/2020

-0.22%

Week 5

4/11/2020

-39.70%

Week 6

4/18/2020

-53.60%

Week 7

4/24/2020

-61.60%

Week 8

5/1/2020

-66.60%

Week 9

5/8/2020

-68.50%

Week 10

5/15/2020

-67.90%

Week 11

May 22, 2020

-66.60%

Week 12

June 3, 2020

-68.70%

Week 13

June 10, 2020

-63.70%

Week 14

June 17, 2020

-62.30%

Week 15

June 24, 2020

-62.50%

Week 16

July 1, 2020

-60.00%

Week 17

July 8, 2020

-57.20%

Week 18

July 15, 2020

-51.90%

Week 19

July 22, 2020

-47.70%

Week 20

July 29, 2020

-42.10%

Week 21

August 5, 2020

-40.90%

Week 22

August 12, 2020

-45.80%

Posted by Bruce Oksol at 9:39 AM 2 comments:
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Holy Mackerel! I Have To Take A Break -- More On This Well Later -- November 30, 2020

Note : in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. Nomenclatur...

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        • A Proxy For Something? -- August 12, 2020
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