Wednesday, August 12, 2020

Notes From All Over -- Pre-Market Edition -- August 12, 2020

JULY CPI:
  • up 0.6%; double expectations:
  • excluding energy, food: up 0.6%
  • energy: up 2%, month-over-month:
  • y/y, a whopping 1.6% (I might be wrong on this);
  • will be interesting to see how market reacts:
  • something called "output gap" suggests inflation will NOT be a problem: the Fed is watching that metric
  • before the announcement:
    • Dow: up 254 points
    • NASDAQ: up 88 points
    • S&P 500: up 24 points (maintains that 10 - 1 ratio between Dow and S&P 500)
  • fifteen minutes after the CPI numbers released, 8:00 a.m. CDT:
    • Dow: up 312 points
    • NASDAQ: up 69 points
    • S&P 500: up 26 points (maintains that 10 - 1 ratio between Dow and S&P 500)

Covid-19:

  • for investors, an interesting take from Jim Cramer:
    • Russia took different direction than US:
    • vaccine vs anti-virals; prevention vs treatment;
  • Russia focused on vaccine: US focused on both (treatment and prevention);
  • think about this:
    • target population for vaccine: healthy volunteers;
    • target population for anti-viral drugs: sick individuals; some of  them fighting for their lives;
  • this is not rocket science

Politics:

  • Ill-hand Omar wins Democratic primary in Minnesota; Teflon-candidate; okay to marry one's brother to get US citizenship;
  • Trump surprised -- but thrilled -- Biden's VP choice;
  • I agree that Harris was a great pick; will knock-out Pence in the debate; but at end-of-the day: this race is Trump vs Biden
  • as much as the rest of us don't like her, if Biden wins, it's going to be tough to determine the biggest reason: anti-Trumpers/never-Trumpers or Kamala Harris -- I'm starting to think that the latter is more important than people think -- folks know she will be president if Biden wins; people forget she was huge proponent of law enforcement at one time; hits her peak just as Americans warming to minority female for president
  • biggest mistake Elizabeth Warren made: said she was 1/1024th native American; she should have found some African DNA in her blood test;  
  • who will decide the outcome (assuming a "legal" election): suburban moms with school-age children; Trump wants to open schools; Biden-Harris, unclear on this issue at this point;
  • video to watch: Kamala Harris on Stephen Colbert (link pending) -- not sure which one folks are talking about; 
    • recommendation to RNC: put Harris on defensive immediately; start airing videos of DNC presidential debates and her post-debate interviews
    • the fact that Biden delayed announcement one week (maybe 10 days) suggest he really had to be convinced to pick Harris as his running mate;

Sumner Redstone dead at 97 years of age;

  • started with a family-owned drive-in theater
  • in dog-years: 14 years of age

Market, futures:

  • Dow: up 254 points
  • NASDAQ: up 88 points
  • S&P 500: up 24 points (maintains that 10 - 1 ratio between Dow and S&P 500)
    • AAPL: up $5, up 1.22%
    • TSLA: surges; up almost $100; up almost 7%
    • UNP: on a tear; now up almost a percent; up $1.65; trading at $192
    • T: up a bit; has been flat for decades but pays 7%; dividend safe for now
    • XLNX: up almost 1%; well off its 52-week high, but what the heck;
    • PSX: up almost 2%; up $1.14; trading at $65.25
    • PFE: in a trading zone; watch this one; it will move fast; currently up 0.7%;
    • BK: no futures trading yet
    • MCD: after bad press this week, recovering nicely; ticker symbol should be "MAC"; whatever happened to Ronald McDonald as spokesperson?
    • pipelines:
    • ENB: not trading yet
    • KMI: up almost a percent
    • OKE: surging; up 3%; up almost a dollar;
    • EPD: up almost a percent; pays 9.79%; ya gotta love it;
    • links of importance for those who follow dividends:
    • QCOM: after a move up yesterday, up another 1.5% today; up $1.62;
  • As much as folks criticize Warren Buffett for his investing style, at least recently, it looks like he is the turtle in the hare/turtle race; all the buzz yesterday on CNBC was the banks; millennials like Wells Fargo;

Best tour I've ever done: the George W. Bush presidential library in north Texas.

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Millennial / iGen Working Together

Son-in-law Tim and one of two grandson twins putting up new swing set.

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